Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:34 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:08 PM 30/03/2005

Constituency Profile

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BC Liberal
Ron Cantelon
Green Party
Jordan Ellis
Carol McNamee
Richard Payne
Refed BC
Bruce Ryder

BC Liberals:
REID, Judith
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:9.96%
Area (km2):259
Pop Density:200.15

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:

16 05 05 Island Gal
Another close one, but McNamee can pull it off. Cantelon is too closely tied to the shenanigans with the downtown conference centre.
14 05 05 M. Lunn
Outside of the Greater Victoria, this is probably the only Vancouver Island riding where the liberals have a greater than 50% chance of winning. The Conservatives won Nanaimo-Alberni with 39% and were stronger in the Nanaimo-Parksville portion as opposed to the Alberni-Qualicum portion. In addition they won this riding by 3 points in 1996 when they were 10 points behind on the Island. Since they are only 6-8 points behind on the Island, they should hold this one and maybe Comox Valley, but they will likely lose all the other Island seats outside the Greater Victoria area.
17 04 05 V. Jara
Here is an attempt at a rough break down of the 2004 Federal voting results for Nanaimo-Parksville based on Elections Canada raw data for the Nanaimo-Alberni federal riding.
James Lunney (CPC)- 40.40%
Scott Fraser (NDP)- 29.24%
Hira Chopra (LIB)- 20.68%
David Wright (GRN)- 8.27%
Others >1%
Scott Fraser, the 2004 NDP candidate for Nanaimo-Parksville, did much better than even the local activists for the NDP expected in the last election. He ran on a shoe string budget and didn't have a enormous volunteer base either. He was a virtual unknown out of his stomping grounds of Tofino and lost the election by less than 7% of the vote. I'm not sure if NDP was fully awake to the possibilities in this riding.
This riding is definitely in play. The current NDP is a woman, which traditionally widens the voting gender gap in the NDP's favour (so long as the chief opponent is male), she's local (unlike the 2004 Federal candidate), and she has activist ties to the BC Teacher's Federation, which should help her ground game. Don't call this race yet, I think it's going to be determined over the course of the campaign.
27 03 05 Mark Robinson
The BC Liberal candidate will pick this riding up with ease. The candidate has a strong and experienced campaign team, and the riding itself suggests a middle-right as opposed to a middle-left profile. I know the voters (personally talked politics with thousands of them). It will stay BC Liberal.
14 03 05 Mike Mulroney
This riding is an easy BC Liberal win. The BC Liberals won here in 1996 despite 10% of the vote going to the Reform, and then in 2001 did 5% better than the provincial average beating the NDP by over 40%!! The riding Nanaimo-Alberni went Conservative federally in 2004. Easily one of the safer BC Liberal ridings in the province, and one of the few on the Island.
10 03 05 Nick Boragina
If the Liberals can win this riding in 1996 by 3%, and in 2001 by 40%, as well as nominate Ron Cantelon, a man who's quite locally popular, then they can win this riding easily, 50%+1 of the vote, BCL, end of story.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
This one will probably go liberals, but I still want to wait until we get a bit closer to the election. Considering they have yet to nominate a candidate while the NDP has, that certainly will give them a slight disadvantage although with Parksville, North Nanaimo, and Nanoose Bay being reasonably well off the liberals will probably win as long as the nominate a half-decent candidate.
04 03 05 TAN
Probably the riding with the greatest turnover in the province in terms of deaths election-to-election. (No joke, and possibly worth considering as far as vote-translation matrices are concerned). That said, golfing seniors are golfing seniors, and that makes this the only safe Liberal seat on the island.
24 02 05 BLJ
The north Nanaimo area through Nanoose Bay into Parksville has somewhat small "c' demographics. During the recent federal election, the CPC won the majority of polls within these boundaries. Nanaimo-Parksville along with Saanich North and the Islands are probably the two safest bets for the Liberals on the island.

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