Election Prediction Project

Oak Bay-Gordon Head
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:34 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:50 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
Charley Beresford
Lindsay Budge
BC Liberal
Ida Chong
Democratic Reform BC
Lyne England
Green Party
Stephen Hender

BC Liberals:
CHONG, Hon. Ida
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:1.20%
Area (km2):30
Pop Density:1590.33

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Saanich South
Victoria-Beacon Hill

16 05 05 Mike Mulroney
Recent polling places the NDP ahead on the island by 10%: the same percentage as the margin of victory in 1996. Ida Chong won this riding by 640 votes in that election, or by 2.42%. This webpage shows that the redistributed riding was actually LOST by the liberals by 2.88%. Since 1996, the ONLY change to the riding is the addition of four polls with a combined registered voter population of 913 in the Mt. Tolmie area. A 5.3% swing in victory margin is impossible with a 2.7% addition to the riding. This webpage claims that those 913 eligible voters caused a 5.3% change in the result. If EVERY SINGLE ELIGIBLE VOTER in those four polls had come out and voted for the NDP in 1996, then the NDP would have only won by 1%: 46.0% to 45.0%. The numbers displayed on the webpage show a much lower NDP and Liberal vote, so clearly the data shown is far from correct. The Liberals could only have lost the redistributed riding (by 1 or 2 votes) if their vote was LESS THAN 15%, and if NDP vote was MORE THAN 85% in these four Mt. Tolmie area polls: extremely unlikely for such an affluent area. The data displayed on this website is incorrect; Ida Chong would have won the redistributed riding in 1996, even with the NDP 10% ahead on the Island. NDP Predictions on the pretence of a 1996 redistributed result are based on misinformation.
Consider Ida Chong’s personal popularity, which, if you actually lived in the area, you would know is significant, especially among seniors. Consider the huge increase in house prices over the last nine, or even four years. Consider that Charley Beresford only managed to do 1% better than the Provincial average in 2001, where Ida was only 1% short. Consider the fact that, according to the Times Colonist, Ida is winning the sign war, despite the systematic destruction, vandalism and theft of her signs by culprits, a few of whom were recently caught (sympathy votes). Consider that Ida would have won this redistributed riding under the 1996 Island conditions, which, as the lowest polled estimations for the Island, are the worst case scenario for this election. There is no reasonable justification for an NDP victory in this riding. Ida will win re-election.
Editor’s Note: Our redistribution numbers were provided by Dr. Julian West, who in 2001 calculated the numbers with input from Elections BC and are widely quoted in media. We are inclined to give more credibility to an impartial academic than a known Liberal organizer, and thus have decided not to remove the data as Mr. Mulroney repeatedly requested.
14 05 05 P. Kelly
The latest Ipsos-Reid poll suggests the NDP is ahead by 10 points now on the Island. Had the 1996 numbers been used in the current electoral boundaries, this seat would have been NDP in 1996 too. The NDP took 10 of 13 seats on the Island with a 10 point lead in support in 1996, so there is no reason to expect that they won't sweep the board in 2005. Its time to call this for the NDP.
14 05 05 M. Lunn
Along with Saanich North & Islands and maybe Saanich South, this is the only other Greater Victoria riding I think the liberals will take. This is a well to do area and has traditionally elected centre-right parties notwithstanding 1991 when the NDP only narrowly won this riding. Ida Chong is also a cabinet minister which should be an asset. In addition the NDP are six points up on the liberals in the Greater Victoria area, but they are likely 20 points up in Victoria-Hillside, Victoria-Beacon Hill and Esquimalt-Metchosin, while the liberals are ten points up in Saanich North & the Islands, and a statistical tie in Saanich South, meaning they are probably about 5 points ahead in this riding.
09 05 05 John
I have just returned from a three day visit to the riding and went to quite a number of large (non political) social functions and chatted with many friends and relatives "plugged" into the "pulse". Here are my observations from chatting around and walking around: this race is going to be much tougher for Ida than the last election. The mood is much more similar to the 1994 election when Cull was defeated in a close race. The NDP is running a strong campaign and so are the Liberals. Ida is actually very well liked in the riding and considered an effective MLA (even by apolitical people). The fact that she is in cabinet as Advanced Education Minister probably is going to be decisive as I think the locals want representation in cabinet (esp. with a major University there). I heard a number of comments to the effect that a riding with a university should have an MLA who is the Minister of Advanced Education. It was a good thing that Campbell appointed Ida to her cabinet post (although this should have been sooner is one comment I heard) and this will likely save Ida's seat. The Liberal party record is generally considered quite fine by most residents I spoke to and there is not huge enthusiasm for the NDP. I heard a comment expressing a worry that the NDP will bring in an inheritance tax. On the other hand, I heard a number of comments that Campbell is not considered a really effective or dynamic leader and should be a little more sensitive a leader. Another comment I heard was that the NDP is ahead of the liberals in terms of dropping off brochures to households. Now having said all that, I think that Ida still has the edge and will win narrowly although her work is really cut out for her. I base my prediction on the fact that there are no really solid NDP areas in the riding but there are some very solid Liberal areas. The polling stations can be divided into equal numbers of either affluent or middle class and no or very few low incomes ones (say unlike Saanich South). Ida will win by large margins (like 2
-1 or even more) in the affluent stations and the other areas may split equally with a strong Green vote.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
The Liberals currently are trailing the NDP by six points in the Greater Victoria area, but since the NDP will likely win by over 20 points in Victoria-Hillside, Victoria-Beacon Hill, and Esquimalt-Metchosin while the liberals will only win by about 10 points in Saanich North & the Islands, I think Ida Chong will narrowly pull it off. As long the NDP doesn't widen their lead in Victoria, then Ida Chong should be re-elected. I am guessing 45% for Ida Chong and 40% for Charley Beresford and 15% for other candidates.
01 05 05 Concerned Voter
Ida has a very good reputation for defending the interests of those who live in Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Charley Beresford is a whiner who talks down to regular people as if they were mere schoolchildren. Take a look at her whenever she's on the news. Listen to how she talks. Jared, in a previous post, called her "charismatic." Okay...
I am amused at Jared's comment that the "shenanigans" of the young Liberals were the reasons behind some of the booing at that debate. I was at that same debate, and Ida was booed by unionized workers and NDP supporters who also were there to support their candidate.
30 04 05 Mike Mulroney
Both new NDP predictions use a debate at Vic High, sponsored by the schools’ PAC, as their explanations. Having been at this debate myself, I can give several reasons why it is irrelevant. As mentioned, this was not an all candidates forum for the riding in question. It was a debate on public education with one candidate from each of the four parties in Greater Victoria. It wasn’t even held in the riding; it was held in Fernwood, which is easily the strongest neighborhood for the NDP on the island. Charley Beresford, the chair of the Greater Victoria school board, obviously had a huge advantage on the topic being debated, even over the minister of advanced education, in spite of which Ida held her own. The hall where the debate was held was almost empty, but the tiny audience present was stacked with people, most of whom were either volunteers or decided voters upon entering. Non-Liberal supporters scowled with expressions of utmost contempt and disgust at the people applauding Ida. (Describing the comparatively civil applause for Ida as “shenanigans” is inaccurate and obviously biased) Not only was Ida booed a few times, but an emotional spectator had an outburst at the end, screaming and pointing at Ida, blaming her and her party for something. Although there media was present, there was barely any coverage on this debate because nothing newsworthy happened. A multi-riding debate with partisan spectators, a low turnout, where the school board chair does well, and of course, the inevitable outburst from a Campbell-hater, is not even interesting, let alone revealing about the race in Oak Bay-Gordon Head.
Ida is in fact doing very well for signage, New signs are popping up on private property all the time, and apparently Ida’s campaign is the only with enough volunteers, resources, or organization to be able to put up big signs at visible locations on public property; unlike NDP campaigns in other Victoria ridings, Beresford’s campaign is apparently failing to do likewise. Many of the Ida signs are getting stolen; unfortunately sign disappearance in the riding is not sporadic, but systematic. Many of the signs are getting vandalized as well, and although these vandalized signs draw sympathy, they are a burden on the sign team as they delay the process of putting up new signs. The poster is simply accounting for the entire significant Ida Chong signage lead on public property signs, while not accounting for the vandalized and/or stolen signs. It is my opinion that Ida is leading in requests for signs on private property, but it’s pointless to argue about who has the lead. Obviously there are some areas where Chong signs outnumber Beresford signs on front lawns, and there are probably areas where Beresford signs outnumber Chong signs, but I have yet to see them.
Having rebutted both new arguments against an Ida victory…
The BC Liberals are maintaining their lead in the polls overall; on the island they are 6 points behind, but in 1996 they lost by 10.0 points. Ida holds a respectable cabinet post, and is well known and liked locally, especially among seniors. As in previous campaigns, she is maintaining a positive campaign, despite becoming a victim to a negative campaign. She is sticking to the formula that works and will hold her riding on May 17th.
30 04 05 James
I don't think the last two posts calling for an NDP victory here are partisan at all! BTW, that education meeting they keep talking about occurred at Vic High which isn't even in the riding. It should be noted that even when the NDP was elected as the government (Glen Clark became Premier) Chong won this riding against the very high profile cabinet minister, Elizabeth Cull. But let's analyze the demographics here by neighbourhood: the Oak Bay Gordon Head riding comprises all of Oak Bay and part of Saanich. (BTW, go to the free site Supredemographics.com and enter a radius with postal codes for details - note the strong represention from the two most affluent groups, A & B). The Oak Bay part of the riding is the most affluent municipality on the Island and ranges from moderately affluent (average household income in the $80,000 range) neighbourhoods to super wealthy in the northern elite Uplands part (million dollar+ homes are the norm). The Saanich part of the riding is also quite affluent. Gordon Head is a large, quite prosperous area with neighbourhoods with most households classifed in the $60,000 to $90,000 household income range (and even more in the northern part near the ocean). The rest of the Saanich part of the riding east of Gordon Head is not really NDP friendly territory: Cadboro Bay (a trendy beach village), Queenswood (large estates on or near the ocean) and Ten Mile Point, a wealthy area with very expensive homes. Most of the students at UVic who might lean NDP are going to be home and outside the riding for the summer. There are a number of "old folks homes" in the riding who might lean NDP. The problem, though, for the NDP will be to try to convince a large portion of the residents of the riding that they are not out to "soak the rich" but simply to ensure there are good public services in B.C. Unfortunately, every time the well intentioned NDP folks stand up and start talking about "making the rich pay their fair share" and how "Campbell only helped the wealthy not the ordinary British Columbians", voters in Oak Bay - Gordon Head cringe and turn to the liberals.
30 04 05 BLJ
In 1986, when the Socreds provincial popular vote exceeded the NDP's by 7% overall provincially, they obtained 5/11 island seats.
In 1996, when the Liberals provincial popular vote exceeded the NDP's by 2.4%, they obtained 3/13 seats (although Reform more than likely did contribute to that lower figure).
The last 4 Ipsos-Reid/Mustel/Strategic polls have all shown a stabilized 46% to 38/39% lead overall provincially in favour of the Liberals. If this 7% lead holds up on election day, the Liberals are likely to obtain 4/13 seats on Vancouver Island, and Oak-Bay Gordon Head will likely be one of those four.
27 04 05 Chris Haines
Ida Chong has done a pretty good job as MLA, keeping visable in the riding and doing well within Cabinet. It is an affluent riding with enough wealthy and Chinese support for her to overcome the teachers and mid-level government bureaucrats who have a vested interest in an NDP government. This year will be much closer than last, but she will get by and be one of the few Liberal MLAs left in Victoria.
26 04 05 Jared
I went to a debate on K-12 education last week. Each party got to send one representative from the CRD; the Liberals chose Ida Chong (for reasons that were never revealed) and the NDP chose Charley Beresford (as VCPAC Chair, apparently), so it also served as an OB-GH-frontrunner debate.
Ida came off as very much the ex-accountant: all plans for the future were laid out in the last budget and all defense for the governments record was in past spending and improved statistics. Not that this isn't how an incumbant should talk, but Charley knew both the statistics *and* had displayed clear passion and leadership. I believe the shenanigans of the large contingent of Liberal Youth in attendance divided the room and Ida ended up getting very little applause and a couple of boos.
So I'd predict an NDP win based on having a more charismatic candidate against a Liberal with no outstanding values and a poisonous campaign team.
14 09 05 Jack_of_spades
Regarding the recent submission by Chuck:
"I also should note there are a lot of retired folks here living in expensive homes who haven't forgotten that the first thing Clark and Harcourt did when elected was to jack up property taxes on expensive homes. "
It is my understanding that property taxes are a local decision.
I attended a meeting on education at Vic High and there were four parties represented: Charley Beresford, NDP, ida chong, BC Liberals, Green party (Esquimalt) and Democratic Reform (Victoria Hillside) Here is a summary of one of the questions by Brad Myers, Local Election coordinator, GVTA. (Local teacher's assoc.):
"I was further reminded of the difference between fact and fancy through the statements of Minister of Post-Secondary Education, Ida Chong, at the recent all candidates meeting on public education held last week at Vic. High. One submitted question identified the author's son as being in one class of 40 students, while his shop class contained only 34 students attempting to work with eighteen vices. Ms. Chong's reply, "I'm surprised to hear these numbers. I think it should be looked into." had the trustees, the teachers and the one school administrator present all shaking their heads. Are all MLAs so out of touch with the realities brought about by Gordon Campbell's policies?"
Chong thought that there was a maximum of 30 in a class at the intermediate level. There is a maximum of 30 averaged throughout the district. That is, if you averaged the class size throughout the district, the maximum average is 30. Before the BC Liberals took over in 2001, the maximum class size was 30.
Another indicator of the popularity of Charley Beresford becomes evident when one drives around and looks at the election signs being displayed. Chong has almost all of her signs erected on public land, apparently a practice not encouraged in Saanich. Besides, there are no voters on public lands.
24 04 05 Chuck
I've reviewed the previous posts and agree that there are a lot of public sector/civil servants who do live in this riding. HOWEVER, you have to ask what kind of public sector workers live here. I have lived for many years in this riding and I must say that lots of residents fit this description: government managers, university profs and doctors - all non union public sector positions who make more than the average union worker. Also, a good percentage of B.C.'s public sector senior executives live in this area - hospital execs, ministry ADM types, university VP's etc. Most of the foregoing higher income folks have actually thrived under the B.C. Libs - lower taxes at higher income levels along with lots of money thrown at advanced education (and higher tuition as well which means universities have actually been winners under Campbell). Further, I recall that one reason Elizabeth Cull narrowly lost here last time was because a lot of the doctors who lived here were really pissed off at the NDP's perceived anti doctor rhetoric at the time (and fee freezes) while boosting the wages of the hospital unionized staff. They won't be voting NDP or telling their patients to vote NDP. I also should note there are a lot of retired folks here living in expensive homes who haven't forgotten that the first thing Clark and Harcourt did when elected was to jack up property taxes on expensive homes. They won't be voting NDP after that experience. No, Ida is safe here and I predict a decisive win for her (particularly with her position as Advanced Education Minister).
18 04 05 g. vernon
Chong is currently the Minister of Advanced Education, such a portfolio which will not go unnoticed by the people in this riding. Beresford may have gotten school board head, but the cabinet experience of Ida Chong should outwigh that. Also, lets not forget that this riding went Liberal in 1996.
17 04 05 V. Jara
I have attempted to break down the June 2004 federal results for this district, although I did not have detailed enough electoral maps to be positive that I was grouping together all the correct polling stations. Here is what I came up with:
Oak Bay/Gordon Head Riding- Victoria Federal Riding Results 2004
David Anderson (LIB)- 40.79%
07 04 05 chris jackson
Chong will win for sure , she is personally popular , well known in the community (I seem to keep running into her at events) , and is now a minister. I have heard that the NDP have already written this one off as unwinnable and will be focusing their (union) resources on hillside and beacon hill
31 03 05 BLJ
While this redistributed seat would have reverted to the NDP by a 3% margin in 1996 (likewise Saanich South to the Liberals), the Liberals also obtained their second highest island result in this riding in 2001 (after Nanaimo Parksville).
The 2001 riding results also mirrored the overall provincial results.
The Oak Bay portion of the riding is also the most affluent area on Vancouver Island and prior to 1991 this area has always been represented by centre-right parties.
At the end of the day, the Liberals will probably eke out a win by several percentage points.
31 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Many people seem to place a lot of importance on the popularity of Ida Chong. Although it seems rather obvious that they're tripping over themselves with regards to her victory in 96' and the importance of that in the hear and now. Clearly one of the reasons Elizabeth Cull lost the 96' race was partially due to her un-popularity due to her performance as finance minister. If one thinks about this logically she wasn't a particularly good finance minister, after all the fiscal competence of the Harcourt regime wasn't wildly praised, in fact she's blamed for the "fudget it budget" of 96' that many people questioned even before the election and before it blew up in Clark's face. If one translates that to the hear and now one can see that despite this albatross around her neck in the 96' race she still received around 41% of the vote meaning it’s logical to assume the provincial NDP will do at least do that well if they can get at least 39% of the vote province wide. Now when this compares to the re-distribution I would think it's presumptuous to assume that all of those people re-distributed into the riding from Saanich South would automatically be Liberal voters if Andrew Petter didn't run for the NDP in Saanich South, clearly a some of these people would simply vote NDP and clearly by the redistributed results an NDP leaning area was added to this riding. Therefore I will continue to be a contrarian and stick with the slight NDP prediction, supposing the NDP vote doesn't collapse.
29 03 05 mjb
The work Ida Chong has done in this community is outstanding...her work in Campbell's cabinet as Advanced Education Minister will score her points, especially with her new pledge to give more money to UVic for new science and social science buildings. Unlike the Victoria municipality, Oak Bay isn't very pro-NDP. Also, Beresford lost by a lot last time. All and all nothing should change, Chong's in again, and with good reason.
28 03 05 M. Lunn
If the liberals maintain their 37% support on the Island, they should keep this riding. This is one of the more conservative ridings on the Island and the second safest liberal seat on the Island after Saanich North & the Islands. Even though the liberals will lose most of their Island seats, 37% is their average support, so they will probably get between 40-45% in this riding meaning a narrow liberal win. The Conservatives won three out of six seats on the Island with only 30% of the popular vote, while the liberals won two out of the six with only around 25% of the vote. The main thing is whether the 37% is evenly spread across the Island as was the case for the NDP last federal election who got more votes on the Island than the Conservatives and liberals but fewer seats, or very concentrated like the federal liberals. If the former is true, Ida Chong is in trouble, but if the latter is true, she should have no problem being re-elected.
28 03 05 Pundit
Why is this even in question? Ida Chong is locally popular. Charley Beresford is vaguely ok for people as a school board chair. If the NDP internally thought that there was any chance of winning this riding, they would have moved heaven and earth to have Nils Jensen
27 03 05 J
Lived in this riding when I was growing up. Elizabeth Cull holding this seat was pure fluke associated more with Vander Zalm's ineptitude than anything. For this riding to go NDP the Dippers would have to be doing a lot better province-wide. I suspect that four years is just not long enough for voters, especially in this riding, to have forgotten the debacle of the NDP's second term under Clark et al.
27 03 05 Mike Mulroney
In 1996, Ida Chong unseated Elizabeth Cull, who was not only an incumbent, but also the Minister of Finance, which is why the race was so close. With redistribution, the riding went NDP because of Andrew Petter vote in Saanich. Perhaps the NDP won this riding in 1991, but they also won North Vancouver-Lonsdale in 1991; that doesn’t make either an NDP leaning riding. With no star opponent, and with the BC Liberals expected to win a majority, Ida will do significantly better than she did in 1996, and the race won’t be nearly as close. Ida is running against Beresford again, so candidate advantage will be no different than last election; Charley’s “strong organization skills” or the NDP’s “good ground game” weren’t even enough to carry her over the provincial average last election. The NDP can criticize Ida all they want, for following party lines or for not getting a promotion soon enough, but negative campaigning will just help Ida as it did in past elections, as she contrasts the NDP with a positive message.
The argument that “the NDP will do well on the Island and have extra resources to finish the BC Liberals off” works both ways. The BC liberals will focus their resources on the close ridings too; if Oak Bay-Gordon Head is in fact close, the party will focus its resources there. The “extra NDP resources” will be met with extra Liberal resources (which, according to the anonymous posting, are greater than the NDP’s resources), and the NDP won’t really have an advantage. Assuming enough resource diversion could put the NDP over the top, the NDP would need to do a lot of resource diversion to win OB-GH (more than they did toward the Victoria Ridings in 2001), and would have to hope the BC Liberals would overlook the riding. Forget it.
The poster seems to think that because he/she prefers the NDP to the BC Liberals, that everyone in Victoria feels the same and that every riding in the Capital Region will go NDP. The cuts Campbell delivered were cutbacks everyone knew would follow if he were elected in 1996 or when he was 2001: both times OB-GH still voted for Ida, and residents of this riding have benefited the most of any in Victoria from tax cuts. Nobody believes that Ida will do better than she did last time, but that doesn’t mean she’ll lose the riding either.
The anonymous prediction paints a picture, with biased language and naïve assumptions, of a sly NDP outmaneuvering the BC Liberals with a brilliant, top-secret super-strategy. The poster must seem to think that the BC Liberals are already in full campaign mode, are completely without strategy or experience, and are totally unaware of some secret NDP campaign buildup waiting to beat them into submission. Give me a break! The argument has no concrete facts or points; like the NDP, it has no substance.
24 03 05
I agree it is an interesting debate.
A few things. While the Liberals have the advantage of incumbency, meaning they can dole out dollar pledges to this and that and build their platform planks over a longer period -- the NDP has the advantage of people who are dissatisfied with the government thinking "gee the NDP are the best alternative to get the bums out". Now it's true the NDP hasn't revealed their platform yet, but once they do it will signify them "ratcheting up" their campaign meaning for good or bad they will attempt to frame the debate far more so than they're doing now.
Also the Liberals have the power of campaign dollars on their side, this means they can spend money on nice fuzzy adds for months on end (as we see) whereas the NDP cannot, the NDP must hold back their money and spend it at a later date due to this. They have to concentrate their dollars to give them more of an effect and have a chance of competeing with the Liberals. They are clearly doing this. This means the Liberals will have the advantage in the polls until the writ drops, after that point things will be up in the air. So while the money advantage goes to the Liberals, let's not count out the NDP's organizing advantage. As I've already stated Charlie Beresford has strong organization skills, heck the NDP usually has a very good ground game where they have a reasonable shot at winning that gives them somewhat of a boost. And keeping ones cards close to ones chest isn't a stupid thing to do, some people may think it's mad, it's not -- from an NDP prespective why give the Liberals ample opportunity to swing at their core election platform? Let the Liberals swing at shadows, since shadows are less likely to cause a lasting effect.
Also while individuals matter, to a minor extent for the wider population, they are less decisive than one may think. Regional trends and party affiliation are very important. And while Ida Chong may be popular in the community, clearly Charlie Beresford is as well. While Berseford only recieved the provincial average last time, one would think this sort of riding would be a place that would punish an NDP goverment more so than say the Victoria ridings (or other ridings with a lower average income and more NDP history), so seeing a doubling of support from last time in a middle class riding such as this is not un-reasonable.
Also the civil servant thing may have a spin off, if these people are spending less money in the riding, that means small buisness people are doing worse, and therefore less likely to vote Liberal as well.
Also I dispute the fact that the Greens will draw from the NDP. Of course the NDP will want Green voters to vote NDP, but any party wants as many votes as it will take to win. The Greens actually have somewhat of a fiscally conservative platform. I've heard Greenies, and I don't dispute this, claim that they draw around 30% from left and right and 40% from former non-voters. While one can always dispute ancetodal evidence like that if one takes a look at the polls the NDP have recovered to support levels around 96' but they haven't wiped out the Greens in the process (who are still getting around 12%, similar to their 2001 results). So if the Greens are holding steady, and the NDP usually recieves between 38-46% of the vote, who are they drawing from now?
24 03 05 Pete Smith
Socred, BC Lib and Reform BC splitting the 1991 vote as it was one of the few riding Reform BC ran in, this resulted in the re-election of Cull who was elected in a protest by-election in 1989 by a few hundred votes. Cull, also part of the ND dominated school board closed shop, left her power center to Carole James who has now left it to Beresford who has let it wither. No chance for Charley.
17 03 05 Barbie M
The Socreds and BC Libs split the votre in this riding in 1991 allowing the NDP a rare win in this neck of the woods. Since then it has been Ida Chongs.
She is a strong MLA who listens to those in her riding. She has helped me on a couple of occaisions on a child care access issue as well as a issue for my grandmother. Each time she showed how much she cares. I also seem to see her around alot at events in the Gordon head Community. I was happy when I heard she is now the Min for unitversities. she cares a lot about students. It looks like the candidate for the NDP cares more about herself and her own popularity that about people.
She is a good MLA, I hope she get re-elected
14 03 05 Mike Mulroney
A. Vancouverite, Excellent, we have a bit of a debate going on! It is relevant that I have lived in the riding because I have a strong sense of the areas included in the riding, and a very clear picture of the demographics; I’m not saying that people from the mainland cannot predict the riding. Clearly my arguments do “refer to political realities;” they are quite logical. I acknowledge that your arguments “refer to political realities,” and I am trying to point out the flaws in the arguments in an attempt to discredit them in the spirit of debate.
Perhaps I could’ve phrased my last sentence in my last posting better; I was referring to Peter Kelly as one who thinks the NDP will sweep BC. I should explain that the “desperate argument” I was referring to was the one about the federal election, which was a bit of a stretch; most of the NDP vote from 2004 came from Victoria and not Oak Bay, which saved David Anderson and boosted Logan Wenham, or Gordon Head, which isn’t in the Victoria riding. I admit you have some interesting points as to why you think the riding will go NDP, but I disagree with your prediction for the following reasons:
1. The re-distributed Oak Bay-Gordon Head did indeed go NDP in 1996. The re-distributed riding contained some parts that were once part of the Saanich South riding. The NDP candidate in 1996 for Saanich South was the personally popular Andrew Petter, who probably boosted the NDP vote in those areas.
2. The array of parties has changed since 1996, when the BC Reform Party cost the BC Liberals the election. Now, the Green party is the strongest 3rd party in the province, which draws votes from the NDP. Don’t expect the Democratic reform to be much of a factor; if they are, they will probably draw mostly from that huge BC Liberal majority form last time: vote that this time would otherwise go NDP.
3. The results in both elections were very close to the provincial average. Right now, the BC Liberals are leading the NDP by a narrow margin, but the good news keeps pouring in, the NDP keeps nominating the same old candidates as last time, and Carole James still doesn’t have a platform. Once the campaign goes into full swing, she will have to stop simply criticizing and come up with some sort of a plan, which will even out the debate in our favor.
4. Ida Chong is now a cabinet minister with 9 years experience and a positive profile. Charley is the same defeated candidate from last time. True, she has worked on the school board for years, but that wasn’t enough to help her earn more than the provincial average last election.
5. Many civil servants do in fact live in the riding. However, this riding has the highest household income in greater Victoria, and while a majority of civil servants still living in the riding will vote NDP, the majority of the rest will vote Liberal.
The results of this riding will be fairly close, but should favor Ida Chong.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Mike Mulroney,
It's not a desperate argument at all, and 'A. Vancouverite' simply refers to my location, frankly I could care less whether or not you lived in the riding all your life, it's irrelevant (but if you must know I'm a born and bred BC'er who knows the province quite well). I'm refering to various political realities -- you however are not. As you can see the re-distributed results from 1996 would've led to an NDP victory in this riding so if current polling is to be believed you can't, with a strait face at least, claim this riding is "relatively simple to predict". So that means the Liberals will have to be ahead by at least six or seven points province wide to make this riding a tie, considering the redistributed results. Two as has been already said there are plenty of civil servants in this riding, they aren't going to vote Liberal regardless of whether or not they still have their jobs, and regardless of whether or not they'd get a tax cut under an NDP goverment (ie upper middle income). Three the Liberals are going to do very poorly on the Island, they'll easily win the plurality of Lower Mainland seats and certain extremely conservative areas within the Interior that haven't been hit hard by cuts (ie: the Okanagan Valley, and Peace) so where you claim that I'm predicting that the NDP will win everything -- I don't know. Should I predict the obvious in West-Van Capilaino for instance? I'd prefer to keep things honest, but since everyone doesn't want to do that I think it would be more appropriate to balance out the Liberal predictions.
Anyhow I stand by my prediction, Beresford by a hair. Besides if Ida Chong was so popular one would've thought she would've made cabinet quicker, so Campbell would've had a more postive face, and in a more prestigous ministry. Oh that reminds, me yet another reason she will have difficulty. She's actually a minister now, meaning those civil servants will have an MLA directly connected to the goverment, and Premier, that has created trouble for them in the first place.
13 03 05
I think Ida, contrary to what some submissions here say, is going to win. She is a high profile MLA, she has a seat in Cabinet, and she represents a riding that has a higher number of folks with more money. Although this is un-P.C., Ida also has the extra advantage of being a non-Caucasian woman. The NDP has decided to run Charley Beresford, a former school board chair. Whenever she was interviewed on the news, she always (to me, at least) talked condescendingly, or as if she was talking to a child. I think the people of Oak Bay-Gordon Head will choose Ida over Charley.
08 03 05 M. Lunn
I think Ida Chong will hold her riding, although I am not confident enough to call it at this point. I think she will win for two reasons: 1. this is the wealthier area of Victoria and with the exception of 1991 when the NDP only narrowly won the riding, it has always elected centre-right parties. In addition most civil servants live in Victoria-Hillside and Victoria-Beacon Hill. After all Bill Bennett laid off many civil servants and still held onto this riding in 1983. The second reason I think Ida will win is most UVic students will have gone home for the summer and since they tend to vote NDP, the liberals will benefit from this. In fact calling the election in the summer semester was a smart move for the liberals since that means Harry Bloy and Ida Chong will likely hold their seats while Gordon Campbell can focus on the election as a whole rather than worry about his own riding.
08 03 05 Mike Mulroney
The two NDP predictions below fail to mention or account for factors that have helped Ida get elected and re-elected in 1996 and 2001, or for the trends and past results in this riding.
I lived in this riding for most of my life; one can only assume "Vancouverite" hasn't. If he/she had, he/she would know that Ida is a popular and hard working MLA who is well respected for always maintaining a clean, positive campaign. This riding is relatively simple to predict; it polls about on par with the province in popular vote. While half of OB-GH is in the Victoria federal riding, the other half of it is the Liberal leaning Gordon Head area. The half of OB-GH that is part of Victoria riding is the higher income part: the part which is overwhelmingly Liberal. “the NDP Candidate for OB-GH almost won the NDP nomination, but lost to a candidate who came within 4000 votes of winning a federal riding, a quarter of which (the highest income quarter) makes up half of OB-GH” is an obscure and desperate argument. With the BC Liberals ahead in this election and with Ida now also in cabinet, she will win this riding again.
It is true that, as P. Kelly points out, there are many civil servants living in Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Far more numerous, however, are the public sector workers who pay more taxes and who have benefited from the BC Liberal government. Oak Bay, Cadboro Bay, and Ten-Mile-Point, which make up half of OB-GH by population, feature the most desirable and expensive homes in Victoria. But we can learn more about P. Kelly's perspective by looking at his Vancouver-Point Grey prediction; citing local Civic politics, Kelly predicted that the Premier would lose his seat! See for yourself!
While Vancouverites who predict the NDP will completely sweep the province predict an NDP win in OB-GH, actual residents see a clear BC Liberal win.
27 02 05 P. Kelly
This seat has many of the civil servants living that were lied to by the Campbell government. Remember? The ones that voted liberal thinking that he would never tear up a contract - after he promised not to. Ida Chong is a nice woman, but nice people often pay the price of their idiotic party leadership. This seat goes NDP in an island wide sweep.
28 02 05 Pete Smith
Ida has this easily. The School Board position for Charley is more inherited than earned as that is under the thumb of the NDP Cull/James machine. And the Greens will be strong on the Island and remain enough of a drag on the ND vote.
02 03 05 A. Vancouverite
I suppose I'll be a contrarian here. While the Island Liberals would be smart to focus their energies on this riding, Saanich-North and the Islands, Nanaimo Parksville and Comox Valley (the only Island ridings they have realistic shots at getting re-elected in) I suspect they will lose this riding if the polls remain close and Island New Democrats know the Liberals will put a lot of effort into the riding -- thus they will counter too. Charley Beresford is a very good organizer. Nils Jensen was expected to run in this riding, and basically said so after loosing the NDP leadership, even so Beresford's organization and large membership base played heavily in his decision not to do so*. Also she has a history as a School Trustee, and chair of the Greater Victoria School District meaning she knows how to get elected. While Ida Chong isn't hated or anything, and some people view her as an above average MLA I don't think it will be enough due to the following.
*While she was out organized by David Turner for the federal nomination one has to admit that Turner is a good organizer to get the nomination because he came close to winning the federal riding, and he can't rely on his public speaking skills that most people admit are sub-par.
This riding is right next door to Victoria. This means a lot of civil servants live here. Civil Servants aren't happy with the Campbell regime, and those who voted Liberal last time are un-likely to do so. Many have lost their jobs, but the ones who haven't feel like they could still easily loose their jobs. This is a big block of voters that will strongly go towards Beresford. Also the re-distributed results from 96' show that Ida Chong wouldn't have gotten elected in this riding should the current boundaries of applied. Also people have been making a big deal about the lack of female candidates, this is especially true on the NDP side where people "expect better" from them -- as such the NDP will have to put extra effort into helping female NDP candidates in ridings that they have realistic shots in getting elected in.
While I'm normally adverse to making predictions on close ridings, most others haven't therefore I will predict: Beresford - NDP 44, Chong - Liberal 43, Green 10, Others 3.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
Beresford should at least make this a much closer race than in 2001. Since then, she's run for the 2004 federal NDP nomination in Victoria (losing narrowly), and had been expecting to face BC NDP leadership candidate Nils Jensen in a race for this year's provincial nomination. Jensen chose not to run, allowing Beresford to focus more on the election itself. The question is whether she can win back the moderate and the environmentally-minded voters who abandoned the party in 2001 for the Liberals and Greens. Some observers (e.g., me) thought Jensen could've won back a lot of these voters more easily than Beresford.
Chong's elevation to cabinet probably boosts her chances at re-election. In a race between an unspectacular but competent MLA, and a former school board chair with strong connections to the moderate Carole James wing of the NDP, and in a riding that has swung between NDP and right-wing MLAs in the past, I don't see a clear favourite yet. Right now I'd predict Chong's incumbent status to give her the edge.
23-Feb-05 Mike Mulroney
Ida Chong has served as MLA for the last 9 years. She has worked hard for her constituency, for the Province, and has done an excellent job of reaching out to the public. She is well liked for having maintained a positive campaign when the opposition got nasty in previous elections. This riding seems to poll almost dead even with the province. Given that the BC Liberals are expected to win a comfortable plurality, (though not as comfortable as last time) so should Ida. If the election is very close, then this riding might be tighter.
23-Feb-05 Ken
It will be a relatively close race but I think Ida Chong will win. She is a cabinet minister after all. Voters here are, by and large, affluent enough that the NDP's "tax the rich" approach won't be nearly as popular here as in some Greater Victoria ridings. This is probably the second safest Liberal seat on the Island, after Saanich North and the Islands.

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