Election Prediction Project

Saanich South
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:36 PM 16/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:48 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
BC Liberal
Susan Mary Brice
Western Canada Concept
Douglas Christie
David Cubberley
Democratic Reform BC
Brett Hinch
Green Party
Brandon McIntyre
Kerry Steinemann

BC Liberals:
BRICE, Hon. Susan
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:1.75%
Area (km2):86
Pop Density:557.79

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Saanich North and the Islands

15 05 05 R. Boyd
Saanich South has gone with with governing party for the past 3 decades. No change on Tuesday. It will be tight, with perhaps the absentee ballots giving Susan Brice the final edge.
16 05 05 David
This seat almost always votes for the winning party in the election . . . . but . . . with NDP support on the rise on the Island this year may break the trend. In fact, my read of sentiment in Greater Victoria is starting to tell me that we should start thinking the unthinkable . . . the NDP winning this seat and probably taking Oak Bay - Gordon Head as well - a shut out for the Liberals in Victoria proper. I am not an NDP hack but I have to say that Victorians are feeling a little neglected by the Liberals blacktop politics these days. They have promised and are delivering a rapid transit line and convention centre for Vancouver, an expanded Pitt River Bridge for the North of the Fraser suburbs, an expanded Port Mann Bridge for the South Fraser Valley, expanded Fraser River perimeter roads, a new Kelowna Floating Bridge, upgraded Trans Canada highway in the interior etc. etc. exanded port facilities in Prince Rupert . . . and for Victoria, lots of job cuts to the civil service, no new highways and decentralization of administration centres to third tier centres like Nanaimo and Kamloops. Oh . . and uncomfortable seats and expensive parking on the main privatized Victoria - Vancouver ferry route. You can see why the sentiment here is negative to Campbell.
13 05 05 Greg
My prediction is the NDP is going to take this seat. With the NDP polling 10% higher than the Liberals on the Island, this will be one of the seats to go NDP. Dave Cubberly is a well respected Saanich counsellor. I acknowledge the previous comments re: Broadmead types not voting for the NDP. However, even among the better off folks, Cubberly gets a lot of respect. He is one of the Saanich Counsellors to stand up the strongest for keeping neighbourhoods "green" and protected from uncontrolled, unregulated development. By doing so, he has protected homeowners' property values and the integrity of neighbourhoods in "nice" areas and earned the respect of the better off citizens in this riding. I am not an NDP supporter but even I have to acknowledge he should get a promotion to the provincial level. I know lots of people in the wealthiest parts of Saanich who speak very positively of Dave and they always vote for him for council. On the other hand, I haven't really heard great things about Susan even from die - hard liberal supporters. I should note that in the 1994 election which best approximated the current situation on the Island, Oak - Bay Gordon Head went liberal but Saanich South went NDP. That will happen again this time!
07 05 05 E
Incumbancy only provides a small bonus (1-2%). While Susan will proably do well in areas like Broadmead, the other areas favor NDP and the vital "swing" are the obvious tossup There are WAY WAY more polls not in highly affluent area like Tillicum, McKenzie, etc. Many of the poll borders are drawn so each area has an equal amount of people. Not to mention the recent construction of "The Victorian" seniors home may play an interesting role.
To comment though, it's going to be down to the wire. Both campaigns seem quite intent on getting this riding. Although, the Brice campaign has been quiet for myself, I haven't been canvassed or sent literature, which is percuilar.
04 05 05 Concerned Voter
Susan Brice is going to win here. She is a well-respected cabinet minister in a riding with affluent neighbourhoods such as Royal Oak. It can't seriously be expected that new homeowners in the area can afford to vote NDP, especially with last year's controversy over the death tax. Incumbency is a big factor, too. On May 17 I expect this riding to stay BC Liberal by about 5-6 points.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is certainly a stronger liberal riding than the average Greater Victoria riding, but not as strong as Saanich North & the Islands or Oak Bay-Gordon Head. That means like in 1996, this will be a close race and the winner will likely win by less than 5%. I just hope the media doesn't call this wrong as they did in 1996 when they earlier declared Andrew Petter defeated only to take it back later in the night.
01 05 05 RPT
The fact that this riding is in the "Too Close to Call" column is hilarious. I can understand that a website that is about predicting the election would not want to state the obvious because the popularity of this website would diminish if you pointed out that the NDP is only going to take back 15-20 seats. Saanich South is not in play here. There is a popular cabinet minister of the third largest ministry. The residents of this riding have the fourth largest average household income in the entire province. And, you have one of the highest voter turnouts (4th in BC in 2001) so we know the people are paying attention to what's going on in this booming province. I can see that you would be a bit hesitant to call this riding for the BC Liberals because the island is almost guaranteed to take back 8 of the 13 ridings ... and there's always a surprise or two in there as well. And the NDP does have a strong base in Saanich South. Even after the Glen Clark reign there were still 28% who voted NDP. But the base is small and there's virtually no way for Cubberly to get over 40%. It's time to call this riding for the BC LIberals. It will never be a total blowout in this riding (minus the 2001 exception). But you've got to be kidding me if you think this riding could go NDP in 2005. So there's only one explanation for why this is in the Too Close column: to make the whole election appear closer than it really is.
01 05 05 Norman
This riding will be close either way, but I give Susan Brice the leading edge here. Andrew Petter barely squeaked through in 1996, and incumbancy will play a huge role. Only the hardcore's from the otherside will say that Susan had done absolutely nothing for her riding, it's just a sad attempt to take a shot at their opponent. Saying that however, David Cubberly has worked hard as on Saanich council, which gives him some ground. But clearly Saanich South will be delivered to the BC Libs on May 17th.
19 04 05 Lokey
A close race but I think that the NDP are going to maximize their support on the island and take this seat.
16 04 05 BLJ
Unlike my earlier reservations, I'm now going to call this one for the Liberals. Here's why:
In 1996, the NDP's relatively respected Andrew Petter narrowly won this riding by a 2% margin, which, given his incumbancy status, should have been greater. Incumbancy should provide a 2% - 3% bonus, which would suggest that the NDP would have won by a 4% - 6% margin in 1996.
Combined with that fact, and the fact that the NDP also has another problem on Vancouver Island - the Greens, which achieve their highest percentages on the island. The Greens tend to poach votes from the NDP. The 1996 Liberals had the same problem with Reform, especially in B.C.'s central and northern interior.
15 04 05
Just as a sidenote to others: Susan Brice is all up in arms about not being nominated by the Conservation group of voters, arguing that her "record" meets and surpasses her opponent. The strange thing is, she is going back ~10 year ago, while David's work is much more recent. Not sure if this is an attempt to "cover her rear" or not. The situation at best is still swing riding for both candidates.
14 04 05 M. Lunn
Like 1996, this will be a close race and the winner will likely win by less than 5%. Considering the liberals are in trouble in most Island ridings, they will pour more resources into ridings they think they can win while the NDP will probably target all 13 ridings to avoid being caught by surprise on election day.
11 04 05 HN
I think that David Cubberly will surprise Susan Brice a bit. She has done nothing in her community since being elected. David is active with building cycling trails and promoting community initiatives. Susan has tried to ride his coat-tails at times even. I say it will be close, with David coming out just on top.
10 04 05 ljb
Contrary to some of the comments I don't believe that Ms Brice has it in the bag. Firstly any party but the NDP could have won the 2001 election, I think the results reflect that, 77 to 79. Ms Brice did nothing exceptional to win, she just happened to be at the right place at the right time.
30 03 05 PJ
Andrew Petter just scraped by in this riding in '96 by just over 500 votes and won only with the post Vander Zalm vote split in '91. It was reliably "Free Enterprise" in every election before then going back to 1953.
And as the '96 redistributed results posted here show, had that election been run on the the post-1999 boundaries the BC Liberals would have won easily here.
The Saanich ridings are the only ridings on the South Island certain to stay in the BC Liberal column.
28 03 05 Pundit
Susan Brice is looking strong, excited and ready for the election. David Cubberly is not around as far as anyone can tell. The Liberals have no shortage of volunteers. The NDP's team is a small group of mainly pensioners.
19 03 05 Mike Mulroney
Looking at the 1996 numbers, it’s looks like Susan should hold this riding. In 1996, popular NDP candidate Andrew Petter was re-elected by a very slim margin; less than the reform vote split. The riding has since been re-distributed, and now leans slightly more to the right. Provincially, the BC Liberals got 41.8% in 1996 and the NDP got 39.5%: a difference of 2.3%. Polls released yesterday show a 7% lead for the BC Liberals. Factor in that Brice is a reasonably popular MLA and now a cabinet minister and the BC Liberals have a clear edge; the absence of a single NDP prediction (at the time this was written) reflects this. The prediction here should be BC Liberal.
09 03 05 Scott
I think this will be a difficult battle for both sides. Susan Brice has done NOTHING for this community to my knowledge. When was the first time she contacted me in 3 years? That flimsy flyer that landed on the doorsteps around January. She has done nothing bad, but nothing good. David on the otherhand is an active council member in Saanich and has been around for awhile with a strong community voice but the NDP still has residual baggage (Ie:Refer to Glen Clark days). So it will come down to who can campaign the hardest and truely sway the electorate
08 03 05 Nick Boragina
I'm going to disagree with the prediction team, and agree with the majority of posters here. Brice is locally popular, and has her own politics, and that's always great for getting elected. Some say the Liberals wont win any seats on the Island - they are out to lunch, this is a clear one. BCL victory
27 02 05 Robert B.
Susan Brice will be reelected for a variety of reasons. She is well respected in the riding and has worked hard on behalf of Saanich South as a backbencher as well as prominent cabinet minister. The riding tends to go to the party that forms the government, and all pre-election polling data suggests that the BC Liberals remain ahead of the NDP. When the election officially begins in April, voters will be presented with an unprepared NDP with no clear vision and a rookie leader in Carole James. Quite simply, the NDP is running to form the Opposition. This one will be close, but Brice will squeak out a win on May 17th.
03 03 05 R P Thompson
I'm guessing this website is using some year old data for predicting the entire island to go NDP. That's quite funny actually. Even the old Bennett governments had worse popularity numbers a year out from the election. But the tide has changed. Brice is a strong community-minded politician who will likely win by more than 10 points. Cubberly is definitely a good guy, but he's NDP and the people of Saanich South are too smart to let the momentum in BC sway back to the economy-stifling unions.
24 02 05 BLJ
I would think that this seat as well as Comox Valley are the island's two potential swing seats (possibly also Oak Bay - Gordon Head). Andrew Petter won it narrowly over the Grits in 1996 and, as such, provincial polling trends closer to election time might be the best barometer.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
I think it is a bit too early to call this one for the NDP. Although liberal support is well behind the NDP on Vancouver Island, this was one of the Liberals stronger ridings that they narrowly lost in 1996. I would say there are five ridings the liberals could win in the following order: Saanich North & the Islands, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Saanich South, Nanaimo-Parksville, & Comox Valley. The rest are pretty safe for the NDP unless the budget gives the liberals a massive boost on the Island. The NDP may still win this riding, but it won't be by a landslide.
24 02 05 Ken
This one will be a dead heat but I think that Susan Brice, being a Cabinet minister and by most accounts a good, community minded MLA will be able to pull off a very narrow victory.
26 02 05 Mike Mulroney
Why the NDP prediction here? This riding is held by a cabinet minister, who won a majority in 2001 with a 24% point lead over the NDP: an impressive result, even for 2001. There are no current indications whatsoever to justify this prediction. At this point, the riding should still be too close to call; if anything, it should be predicted as a BC Liberal hold.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
Cubberley, like former MLA Andrew Petter before him, is fairly "green" as New Democrats go. He's on Saanich council and an advocate of better cycling routes around Victoria, and an intelligent supporter of other ways of improving sub/urban living and transportation. This could help him win some of the sizeable Green vote. He also has a reputation as one of the NDP's moderates. Neither of these were enough when he ran against Brice last time, but conditions now are quite different from 2001. I'd peg this too close to call right now, with Cubberley possibly having the edge.

Submit Information here
Return to - regional Index
Return to - 2005 British Columbia Prediction

© 1999-2005 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com