Election Prediction Project

Victoria-Beacon Hill
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:23 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:04 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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BC Liberal
Jeff Bray
Carole James
Ingmar Lee
Democratic Reform BC
David McCaig
Benjamin McConchie
Green Party
John William Miller

BC Liberals:
BRAY, Jeff
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:4.95%
Area (km2):13
Pop Density:3806.15

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head

11 05 05 Concerned Voter
As much as I would love it if Ingmar Lee (the independent tree-hugging, serial protester) won, Carole James is going to clean up this riding. This is an NDP riding and she is the leader. No big surprises or upsets are going to happen here.
24 04 05 Pundit
Carol James will win.
But John Miller will do better than expected. My people are simply not ready to vote NDP or Liberal, people know Carol James will win so a Green vote is easy to do.
Also, Jophn Miller is stronger candidate than Walter Meyer zu erpen
21 04 05 Jim
With Walter Meyer zu Erpen not running for the Greens this time (and with their incredibly skilful 2001 campaign manager sadly deceased), they don't have a campaign of nearly that calibre and so will not get close to the 21% they got last time.
James lost by a fraction last time, and this time is running as the party leader. James with a big win and perhaps even a simple majority win.
29 03 05 mjb
As much as I hate to say it, the NDP has this one by a landslide. Carole James wouldn't run here if she wasn't absolutely sure she would win. Bray barely took this riding in the Liberal massacre of 2001, mainly due to the union-oriented people and environmentalists that call this riding home. I support the BC Liberals, and although I want Bray re-elected, it would be a naive to say he will be and basically just a pipe dream.
28 03 05 Pundit
The only thing Jeff has going for him is that the people that met him will be voting for him because he is that good.
21 03 05 tederifico
Well, I hope that this isn't just wishful thinking but I believe that Carole James has got it. During the federal election there were many more NDP signs in the part of that riding that constitutes the provincial boundry. Jeff Bray is hardly heard from in these parts. And it tends to be a little more liberal (notice the small "l"). I think it will be close in the end, but Carole will pull it out.
20 03 05 M. M.
Jeff Bray doesn’t have snowball’s chance in hell of getting re-elected. He barely won in a Liberal landslide in 2001. He doesn’t hold a cabinet post (not that that would help much), nor does he have a strong positive profile. Nothing needs to be said about Carole James, except that she’s the NDP leader running in a strong NDP riding. James Bay is James’ Turf.
13 03 05 The Elk
BC NDP leader Carole James is running here. Razor-thin margin for Liberals' and high-profile from a party leader will bring this seat back to the NDP.
09 03 05 Nick Boragina
This riding was lost by 0.14% last time, if 0.14% of the Green's 21% does not turn out to vote NDP (the green vote is down across the province, and NDP vote up) that alone will shock and surprise me. This is one of the ridings where the last-time losing candidate is running again; alone that would be enough for an NDP victory. The NDP is up across BC, again, alone that would be enough. The leader is running here, which, again is enough alone. This was also the closest loss for the NDP in the last election. 5 "enough when taken alones". This is not a case of the straw breaking the camel's back in this prediction, this is more of the case of a one-ton slab of concreete breaking the camel's back. In other words: Obvious.
28 02 05 Pete Smith
No question about it. This is Carole home base, a ND stronghold and as Leader there is no chance she will lose.
03 03 05 IGB
Carole James + razor-thin Liberal victory in 2001 + traditional NDP territory + many civil servants = huge NDP win.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This is the seat Carole James will likely run in and considering should lost be only a couple of hundred votes, this should be an easy win. The civil servants who lost their jobs are not likely to vote liberal and this riding has a lot of them. The interesting comparison will be to see who wins by a bigger margin: Carole James or Gordon Campbell. I am predicting Carole James even though I predict she will lose the election simply since she choose one of the safest NDP ridings, while there are about 20 ridings which are more secure than the premierès
23-Feb-05 Laurence Putnam
This is the riding where Carole James is running -- lost to the BC Libs last time by 1%. James will take this one back by at least 20 points.

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