Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:23 PM 14/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:37 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Green Party
Steve Filipovic
Rob Fleming
Work Less
Katrina Jean Herriot
Democratic Reform BC
Jim McDermott
BC Liberal
Sheila Orr

BC Liberals:
ORR, Sheila
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:1.79%
Area (km2):17
Pop Density:2822.94

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Saanich South
Victoria-Beacon Hill

13 05 05 rufus
Sheila Orr is toast. I live in the riding but am volunteering my time elsewhere as its simply not needed. This is a riding that was very hard hit by the HEU layoffs and the restructuring of ministries. ie. eds.
04 05 05 Concerned Voter
As much as Sheila Orr has been an effective voice to serve her constituents over the last four years, the union and left-wing movement is too powerful in this riding. The former UVic Communist and current city councillor Rob Fleming will win, bringing this seat back to its NDP roots.
28 03 05 Pundit
The last time the NPD won this riding in 1996 it was a different place - demographically it is no longer as safe NDP as it was. There are many more onwer occupiers in houses that are worth a lot more money. Affluence is happening here and it does not bode well for the NDP. Though, in the end, Flemming is likely to defeat Orr.
22 03 05 Deep Thoughts
Orr's chances are not even recordable. This very well could be the seat the NDP wins by the widest margin. Fleming is a veteren city councillor and popular at that.
16 03 05 Cornpop
Orr has a tough fight, but can get re-elected here. She is one of the moderate faces to the BC Liberal Party. This riding will also ride very much on the overall campaign performance of the parties. If the premier kicks ass, the voters in Hillside could send Shiela back.
27 02 05 R.B.
From one public relations disaster to the next, Sheila Orr is toast in Victoria-Hillside. From legalizing prostitution to parking in handicapped zones without a permit, Sheila's embarrassing publicity gaffes and will add to the fact that she is in one of the safest NDP seats in the province for this election. Nothing will save this sinking ship.
28 02 05 Pete Smith
Rob has it easy. The IS stuff and the old story of election fraud from student politics days don't mean anything. The Libs tried to smear him with this stuff when he first ran for Council but as a first time candidate he finished second. For anyone who knows Victoria civic politics, it is not easy to break into that closed club. As the icing on the cake, after three years as a Councillor, he finished second again. This showed that the first time was not a fluke or a really good campaign selling a false bill of goods. He held his strength after breaking his campaign pledge to the unions on the new arena project which Steve used to call him a traitor to the left. No doubt Rob will be judged on what he has done as a Councillor for the average resident and will win quite easily.
24-Feb-05 Scott G.
While his involvement in the NDP goes back to his student days, Fleming can still be characterized as a fresh face who represents the more moderate side of the party. He won the nomination (albeit narrowly) over the previous MLA Steve Orcherton, who ran for the party's leadership denouncing those who would move the party toward the "mushy middle". Fleming has also earned a reputation from university politics and Victoria city council as someone who takes specific issues seriously -- most notably, improving public transit.
Seeing the writing on the wall, Orr has tried (like Lorne Mayencourt) to raise her profile by promoting a particular issue. Unfortunately Orr's chosen proposal, a designated "safe walk" area for prostitutes in the Victoria region, wasn't received very well. Fleming will win, and may be a candidate for party leader in another 5 to 10 years.
23-Feb-05 Laurence Putnam
The Libs would surely have much preferred to run against old-time left NDP hardliner Orcherton...but they will not be so lucky. (Not that it would have made a difference) Fleming will take this one back to the NDP fold...easily.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Even though the NDP candidate is a former Marxist, they almost won this riding last time and this is a traditional NDP riding, so this will be an NDP gain.
22-Feb-05 JC
NDP barely lost here in 2001, thanks to loss of support for the liberals, they will have a hard time hanging onto this one. NDP Pick up.

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