10:42 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:52 AM 06/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Sandra Cooze
Judy Davis
Aaron Hynes
Scott Simms

Scott Simms

2004 Result:
Scott Simms
Rex Barnes
Samuel Robert McLean
Ed Sailor White
John Lannon

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 Soup
This is Liberal territory for sure, and even more so as one moves to the rural parts of the district. If this race is even close in the early going on election night look for the Lib's to finish strong as the traditioanl slow reporting Liberal vote comes in.
Second Rex Barnes didn't win his election, Beaton Tulk lost it. The concept of a "townie" getting the nomination because he was JC's buddy didn't sit well with local liberals. Rex won with less votes in his by-election than Roger Pike lost with in the previous general election. That being said Rex did a good job as an MP and earrned alot respect, thats why he is the Mayor of GFW now.
18 01 06 L.O.
I change my prediction here. The Liberals would never have made a deathbed conversion on putting offices in Gander if they weren't in serious trouble in this riding.
The organizers of the non-partisan petition campaign to reinstate the Gander Weather Office have come out with critical words for this last minute move and with positive words for Stephen Harper's early-on commitment to re-instate the Office. It's a big issue in this riding.
Add these positive comments to the full-fledged support for Tory Aaron Hynes from provincial MHAs (Harry Harding, Tom Rideout, Ray Hunter, Clayton Forsey, Kevin O'Brien, Roger Fitzgerald, and Paul Oram) this time around that wasn't there as much for Barnes back in 2004 and you've got a tight race on your hands.
The Liberals wouldn't be making these announcements unless they were behind here.
18 01 06 Russ on the Rock
This race has become very close, as the election dynamic in this riding has been distilled down to one local defining issue -- that of the federal jobs associated with the former (and future?) Gander weather office.
Incumbent Liberal Scott Simms -- a former weatherman, ironically -- is back on his heels with what looks like woefully inadequate support from Langevin Block to respond effectively, and newcomer Tory candidate Aaron Hynes has exploited the issue very well. The question is whether it will be enough to tip the scales. Notwithstanding the election of Rex Barnes for the PCs a few years back, this is generally pretty Liberal territory.
I suspect this might be one of those ridings that can't be called until every single poll reports on election night.
14 01 06 A.B.E. Simpson
Althought the Libs finally announced a committment on the Weather Centre in Gander yesterday, I think it will hurt them by only promising a "Weather Desk". It won't bring back most of the jobs it lost when the centre closed and moved to Halifax. Althought the latest polls are 50 Lib/40 Conserv, I think the torys will close the gap and make this a bit of a race on the 23rd
11 01 06 Dave-o
NTV poll gives the edge to Simms, 52.2 to 40.1. Hynes has a carpetbagging hill to climb, and will end up back on Parliament Hill, but as a staffer again.
26 11 05 sure
Scott simms gets an easy ride. So just who is this Aidan Hynes that is running against him. They say he is from Eastport but no one seems to be sure. Apparently his folks have roots here. I find it hard to believe the cons could not find someone in the province to run.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
Even if the Conservatives pick up support nationally or even provincially, they start from farther behind that what it appears at first glance because of the PC's winning a by-election here in 2002. The race might be close but Liberals will keep the seat.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
This was only close last time around due to Rex Barnes' popularity. Since this is a traditional liberal riding and Rex Barnes is not running again, Scott Simms will likely get over 50% this time around. The Tories would need to have Danny Williams as their leader to even have a chance at taking this. The Atlantic Accord debate is settled since by the time the election rolls around, it likely won't help or hurt either the liberals or Tories.
15 05 05 Chistopher MacCulloch
The fact that Barnes isn't running will definetly hurt the CPC...unless they find a decent candiate they will spoil the opportunity to take this seat, which should be one of their prime pick ups in Atlantic Canada
14 05 05 A.S.
Re CPC doing better in Newf & Lab than anywhere else in the Maritimes: don't forget the residual Danny Williams coattails. As for here, most likely "back to normal" (i.e. Liberal by nature) post-Rex Barnes, barring deeper anti-Grit patterns. Then again, in the cycle of "designated NDP outport targets", it ought to be Gander/Grand Falls' turn. (They super-targeted John Efford's once-removed predecessor Fred Mifflin in 1997, Gerry Byrne in 2000, Bill Matthews in 2004; so, next is Scott Simms...)
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Barnes won this riding, not the tories, either one of the tories. He is the only one who can challenge for the win, but I don’t believe he's running. Without him as the incumbent, he loses votes because of that, enough perhaps to guarantee a liberal win. I cant see Barnes or anyone else winning, but if anyone will win as a tory, it will be Barnes. That's about it.
Newfoundland was odd, in that the CPC did better here then in any other Atlantic province. While it might sound strange, the reason was the lack of success of the Alliance here. since the Alliance was so weak, almost all of the backroom organizers, and candidates, are former Progressive Conservatives. It's almost like the PC party just dropped the P. While this was good for them in 2004, its not so good for future prospects, as shaking off the alliance tag will mean less here.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Scott Simms will likely be re-elected since this is traditionally a liberal stronghold until Rex Barnes won his surprise by-election. Scott Simms has also been an MP who does a good job of representing his constituent's views such as when he supported the opposition motion to let Newfoundland & Labrador keep 100% of its offshore revenues. He also voted against C-38 (Same-sex marriage bill), despite being personally in favour of same-sex marriage since most of his constituents were opposed. The only way he could lose is if Rex Barnes runs again since he had a surprisingly strong showing considering this riding's history. He actually percentage wise, did better than any other Conservative candidate in Newfoundland & Labrador despite failing to win the riding, so if he runs again, then too close to call, if not, a liberal win.

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