4:38 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:09 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Gerry Byrne
Martin Hanzalek
Cyril Jr. Pelley
Holly Pike

Hon. Gerry Byrne

2004 Result:
Gerry Byrne
Wynanne Downer
Holly Pike
Steve Durant

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 Dave-o
Gerry Byrne, hands down, supported by the NTV poll:
51.9 to 36.4, just inside the margin of error if both parties are 8 points in error. Rural Newfoundland is not fertile ground for Harper.
14 12 05 DP
The Tories have nominated a well-known Springdale businessman, Cyril Pelley, as their candidate in this riding. Gerry Byrne is vulnerable to a strong challenger. The Liberals have held this seat since 1980, thanks mainly to Brian Tobin, but it's been PC and even NDP in the past.
23 11 05 The Outsider
It was actually 62%, to be precise. And yes, it's still going to be Liberal after the next election, hands down.
10 05 05 Eve Clarke
For the last four elections, people have been predicting that Gerry Byrne will be defeated. He has never been yet. After winning the last election by 70%, maybe this time the pundits will admit defeatr before the election is ever called. Byrne is probably the most popular federal MP the area has ever had.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
huge win last time, traditionally left wing riding, alliance alberta conservative party, it all adds up to another liberal win. The NDP has won this riding more often then tories have. The people here don’t want tax cuts, they want spending.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a liberal stronghold. With high unemployment and poverty rates, people are skeptical of parties that embrace the free market. The only reason this area went PC provincially was because Danny Williams was from this part of Newfoundland. Even during the Frank Moore and Brian Peckford eras, most these provincial ridings went liberal. Gerry Byrne will be easily re-elected and besides a 40 point margin of victory is too large for any party to overcome in one election unless you have a defeat similar to the PCs in 1993.

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