4:38 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
6:30 PM 05/09/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Joe Goudie
Jacob Edward Larkin
Todd Norman Russell
Gail Zwicker

Todd Russell

2004 Result:
Lawrence David O'Brien
Merrill Strachan
Ern Condon
Shawn Crann
Lori-Ann Martino

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 Dave-o
The biggest blowout in the province according to the NTV poll:
The Tories took until Christmas to get "landslide Joe" (famous for NOT winning by landslides) to run again for the first time since 1988. Joe will put up a good fight out of duty to the party, but he has no realistic chance.
22 12 05 td
The Liberals will win here again, they have always won here except for a brief period in the 60's(I believe), I figured Graham Letto would have won the by-election but he never, if someone with Graham's calibre can't win the seat, I don't know who can.
30 11 05 Dave-o
Graham Letto, the Conservative candidate in the by-election last spring, neither won his hometown poll on the coast where most people are named Letto, nor could he sweep the polls in Lab City where he is the mayor. In fact, popular wisdom has it he would have lost the mayor's job too in the municipals this fall, except no one else ran. But he's out of the running anyway for the Conservatives in the general election, no one else is stepping forward, and the NDP are candidate-less. There's effectively no opposition. Even if Randy Collins (NDP) goes federal, Todd Russell has overcome two of his biggest handicaps from May (LIA and Goose Bay) and barring a total Liberal meltdown worse than John Turner's he will be back in Ottawa in February.
06 12 05 ocv
This should be interesting. Although Labrador has a strong Liberal tradition, judging by the local newspaper coverage of the military base at Happy-Valley Goose Bay, the grits could be vulnerable. Ultimately I think they'll pull this one out, but it could be a sleeper issue.
21 11 05 L.O.
The riding of Labrador will stay Liberal. It has been its own riding since 1988. It always voted Liberal. The Labrador portion of the riding, in the years before that, almost always voted Liberal. When the overall riding returned Bill Rompkey in the 1979 federal election, the Labrador part voted for NDP candidate Blackmore. The closest a Tory has ever come to winning Labrador was in 1984. Peter Walsh came within a few hundred votes of winning the Labrador portion of the riding.
The Conservatives didn't fare too badly in the recent by-election given the history of the riding. Their better areas of support are in places like Labrador City. The coast is very strongly Liberal.
All this said, Labrador does have a history of voting for candidates of each party on the provincial level.
combined Labrador results of the last provincial election:
Liberal 3997
PC 4076
Lab 2391
NDP 2891
A strong local candidate from an opposition party may crack through the Liberal stronghold, but it would take some work . . .
13 08 05 David M.
well, as i'm sure we all know by now, the may 24, 2004 by-election has come and gone.
the following was the vote breakdown (from elections canada):
01 06 05 M. Lunn
The liberals won the by-election by a comfortable and by-elections traditionally favour opposition parties. However the fact the Tories doubled their support could cause the liberals problems in some less safe Atlantic Canada seats.
17 05 05 Steven
I think the NDP and Conservatives will gain ground, but in the end the Liberals have won Labrador consistently. The margin in the past election was significant for the Grits. Perhaps if the NDP or Cons post a star candidate it might make for some gains, but it is unlikely. Perhaps a trip there by Jack Layton could make the riding competitive, but it'll stilly probably go Liberal in a big spread.
15 05 05 Labrador Fisherman
What in God's name does the proximity of Labrador to Quebec have to do with anything??? This riding is strong Liberal, very strong, and it will cntinue to be. Labrador is very socially progressive and the Conservatives would really have to head left to the center of the political spectrum to even close the gap. Wishful thinking is one thing my friend, but I'd sugegst you actually visit Labrador before you post any more geography based posts on the Labrador message board!
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Could be closer than people think being so small and all, however from what I understand the LPC canidate is "high profile", all told this one will stay Liberal.
14 05 05 Sydney
Labrador has been a Liberal stronghold since Newfoundland and Labrador joined Canada. It would be hard to imagine the Liberals not taking Labrador again this time. If fallout from the sponsorship scandal causes an upset in the riding it would be very difficult to predict which other party would take the seat. Both the Conservatives and NDP have had modest support and it would be hard to predict the voters second choice in a riding that has always gone liberal. Paint Labrador red.
09 05 05 The Jackal
Easily the safest Liberal riding in Atlanitc Canada maybe in the entire country. The only question remains will the vacany be filled in a by-election or a general election.
08 05 05 Oooly Gooly
"Gomery will hit this riding hard since it is next to Quebec"
This statement alone should devalue every other prediction you have ever made. Gomery will have no more, and probably much less impact on Labrador, than on any other riding outside Quebec.
Labrador doesn't vote on national or provincial issues. Its fairly idiosyncratic.
The riding wasn't "prevented" from voting Reform in 1996. If anything the old PC voters would have been more likely to vote Liberal than Reform. 1996 was a massive anti-Tobin protest vote. If this year's byelection, assuming Stephen Harper lets it remain a byelection, does anything, it may harness an anti-Danny Williams backlash, which will only help the Liberals.
08 05 05 Ooli Gooli
"Labrador has never been represented, in whole or in part, federally, by anyone other then a Liberal. At one time it was attached to an Island riding, thoughtout that entire period, the MP was a Liberal."
Actually from 1968 to 1972, the MP was PC, although elected on the strength of his vote in the Grand Falls-White Bay section of the old ridings. Labrador voted Liberal in 1968.
"The moment it was made it's own riding, that Island riding went PC."
Incorrect. Labrador became a separate riding for the 1988 election, in which both Labrador, and Gander-Grand Falls, went Liberal. Other than the brief by-election tenure of Rex Barnes, the island district has been as Liberal as Labrador.
03 05 05 TC
Gomery will hit this riding hard since it is next to Quebec, This riding almost went to the Reform Party of Canada in the 1996 by-election, but was prevented from doing so by vote splitting. Conservatives have been putting lots of reasources in this riding as well, harper has visited it a number of times. No Liberal incumbent + Gomery = May 24th Conservative win
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
Labrador has never been represented, in whole or in part, federally, by anyone other then a Liberal. At one time it was attached to an Island riding, thoughtout that entire period, the MP was a Liberal. The moment it was made it's own riding, that Island riding went PC. Since then, Labrador has always elected a Liberal, and that's a trend I dont expect to stop. The last MP won here despite being very sick, and I expect that whoever the Liberals put up will win, even if we were to see a PC-1993 style collapse of the Liberal party, this is one of the ridings the party would carry anyway. IIRC, provincially, the Liberals have always won the popular vote in the region.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Whether there is by-election of May 24th or a general election called before then, Labrador will go liberal. The NDP might have a slim chance since local candidate can have bigger impact than in other areas and Lawrence O'Brien won support last time around from supporters of other parties due to his popularity so it is possible the NDP could draw from some of his supporters. But the Conservatives won't win this since with high poverty rates and lack of popularity amongst the Aboriginal community it likely won't happen. If the By-Election comes first, they will probably do better than a general election considering the Reform Party had a strong second place showing in the 1996 by-election, yet got less than 5% a year later in the 1997 general election.

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