4:38 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:10 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Random-Burin-St. George's
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Mark Brennan
Cynthia Downey
Bill Matthews
Amanda Will

Bill Matthews

2004 Result:
Bill Matthews
Des McGrath
Larry Peckford
Justin Dollimont

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 Dave-o
Nearly a twenty-point Liberal advantage in the NTV poll well outside margin of error:
It would take a stronger candidate to defeat Matthews. Maybe 2008?
08 12 05 Mike White
My old home riding. This is as Liberal as Liberal gets on the island part of Newfoundland and Labrador. There is no high profile candidate running against Bill Matthews this time. Liberal margins of 80% have happened before in the old Burin-St. George's riding. Matthews should be good for at least 70% this time around.
03 12 05 Victor A.
I think this was the riding where the Father McGrath has run, if he runs again he could get yet another close result but Liberals should win again with at least 5 to 7 % above McGrath ( if he decides to run again ).
26 11 05 yes
Bill Matthews will win again. The NDP will not be much of a threat as father MCgraw is not running. The thing is that Matthews is not well liked, not visible and people would like to dump him. The people who want to dump him the most are liberals but since the PM extended the get out of jail free card he gets the nod and probably the election. If the cons had a candidate they could win this seat.
21 11 05 L.O.
This riding is the biggest mish-mash of all NL ridings. It was a mess before the last redistribuion, and now it's more of a mess. As far as ridings go, it's one of the most Liberal in the province. With the exception of Joe Price in 1984 and Bill Matthews in 1997 (before he crossed over), This riding has never gone anything but Liberal.
In 1968, when NL gave Trudeaumania and Joe Smallwood's hand picked candidates a very stern rejection (returning 6 of 7 seats for the Tories), the only Liberal to survive was Don Jamieson (generally independent of JRS) here on the South Coast.
Major centres are Clarenville, Stephenville, Marystown, Channel-Port Aux Basques, Harbour Breton, Grand Bank etc. . . this means there is no real major centre. It means any new opposition party candidate would need to be pretty much popular on a a provincial level. Even then, it's a tough road (ask Father Des.)
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Another sleeper really, unless McGrath runs again I don't see anything but red here.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
McGrath might be able to win if he runs again, but I doubt that. This has always been an independent minded riding, and Matthews is viewed as a popular independent. This riding wont even be close if McGrath does not run. easy liberal win in this traditionally liberal area.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
The only reason the NDP did well here was due to Des McGrath's star candidacy. Likewise the PCs won in 1997 due to the EI cuts. However this is not a conservative area considering had the federal ridings been used in the last provincial election, this is the only one the liberals would have held. Bill Matthews generally puts the interest of his own riding ahead of the party considering he supported an opposition motion to let Newfoundland & Labrador keep 100% of offshore royalties despite the fact every other liberal MP except him and Scott Simms voted against it.

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