4:39 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:16 PM 07/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

St. John's South-Mount Pearl
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Siobhan Coady
Barry Crozier
Loyola Hearn
Peg Norman

Loyola Hearn

2004 Result:
Loyola Hearn
Siobhan Coady
Peg Norman
Stephen Daniel Willcott

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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12 01 06 Allan
Siobhan Coady will win this election. Hearn has not run a good election and has trouble defending the fact that he voted against the enabling legislation for the Atlantic Accord. He is seen a Harper's poodle in St. John's. Siobhan has run a tight, organized, aggressive campaign. She has more recognition this time than last. Hearn is tired, old...this is a regular Canadian urban riding with a Newfoundland twist. Newfoundlanders love it when one of their own goes away and becomes a star in the rest of Canada. Siobhan has just that air of succeess. She nearly bumped off Hearn last time. This time she'll close the trade, by a small but defendable margin.
11 01 06 Dave-o
NTV gives the tories a more comfortable edge right now than their 2004 results:
One of the closest races in 2004, one of those surprise! Tories win St. John's by the skin of their teeth results.
Not so this time. Sadly the weak, pathetic, toadying Gollum of an MP, Loyola Hearn, will win hands down, unless he loses to Peg Norman of the NDP.
Not likely. One thing for sure, it's likelier that if Loyola loses, it won't be to the even sadder, more pathetic, Siobhan Coady. Someone, please, wipe the plastic smile off her face.
07 01 06 M. Lunn
I agree that Loyola Hearn could be in trouble, however, I think most Newfoundlanders want at least one person on the side of government. If the Liberals make a strong re-bound between now and election, then Siobhan Coady has a good chance at winning, but if the Tories keep their lead, Loyola Hearn will win again simply because I don't think people want no members sitting on the government side. Off Course I would argue Norman Doyle is somewhat safer than Loyola Hearn since his riding includes more of the rural parts of the Avalon peninsula, which tend to be the most Conservative parts of the province.
05 01 06 Nel Hapir
You are correct George about the Provincial PC party not CONSERVATIVES. They are popular, our premier is doing a fine job. This forum is about the federal scene. even our premier wont support Harper.......I wonder why? With his considerable popularity and influence as you and i agree, can only bode doom for harper and hearn in the province. Fact is hearn should follow efford and not run. Both chose party over people. Mr. williams asked Hearn not to put the accord by voting against bill c43, which would have scuttled the budget and our accord. It is funny the an independant MP from BC ( chuck cadman, may he rest in peace) saved Newfoundlands Accord. Hearn voted for his party and not as his premier and consitiuients wanted. I predict Siobhan Coady win......and hearn to join efford on the golf course.
30 12 05 george
You misunderstand. The PROVINCIAL polls have said for a long time that the Provincial Conservatives are very popular. The last polling done suggested that Danny Williams(our Premier) is so popular that it is even possible that the Provincial Conservatives could win every Provincial seat. I mentioned this in reply to Victor A who was suggesting that the unpopularity of the Provincial Conservative party would rub off on the Federal Conservatives. I was telling him not to be so foolish as the current Conservative Premier is more popular than any Premier since the early days of Smallwood--55 years ago!
16 12 05 Nel Hapir
George, please don’t exaggerate the polls.....no poll suggested that the CONSERVATIVES (not PC) could win every seat federally. The PC party (provincially) is popular but recent independent professional polls showed that ALL seats in NL have the real possibility of going liberal. After the debates tonight Coady and Antle will have a big boost. I bet that both will make cabinet ministers.
16 12 05 Jeff Mackey
A lot has changed in this riding since the days of John Crosbie and the traditional St. John's West boundaries. When the boundaries changed in 2004 and the riding became almost entirely an urban seat, Mr. Hearn's margin closed to 1500 votes from the substantial victories he experienced in 2000 in the general election against Furey and byelection against Sparrow.
I expect a Liberal win by approximately 1,000 votes this time, simply because the NDP vote will be down due to the candidate's less than enthusiastic campaign this time around...her newy opened retail store is obviously eating up a lot of her time to campaign.
A lot of time left yet, but I predict a Coady Liberal win.
10 12 05 george
I cant believe Victor A says the Nfld and Lab PC govt is unpopular!--and therefore people will punish the Federal Conservatives. Over many surveys now---the polls show Danny Williams to be the most popular Premier in 55 years!---One poll indicated the PCs could win every seat with the level of popularity.
03 12 05 Victor A.
I'm very surprised most pundits consider it as a Conservative stronghold, I believe that Hearn is likely to loose and that with around 3 to 5 %.
Siobhan Coady was close to unseat him last time and this time with Liberals scoring as much as 50 % of support in the province in most surveys + a certain loss of popularity of the Nfld & Labrador Progressive-Conservative government. ( All these strikes of union employees, etc )she will seal the deal. Liberals will win 7 out of 7 in this province. Probably the Atlantic Accord will help as well.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
This is a rock-solid Conservative seat. It was closer than usual in 2004 on account of Stephen Harper's comments in 2002 regarding Atlantic Canada. Because memories are slowly fading, the Conservatives won't have any significant difficulty in keeping this seat.
21 11 05 L.O.
Hearn's stand on the Atlantic Accord was by far the most consistent of the Newfoundland and Labrador MPs. Most Newfoundlanders and Labradorians will recall that Martin was the last to come to the 2004 election table with an offer on offshore revenue (a concept he bitterly opposed as finance minister for years beforehand). Even after Martin's mid-election 180 turn, he spent months trying to soften on his deal. By this past spring, Martin was holding the deal that could have been agreed-to and passed in fall 2004 hostage in order to maintain power.
Hearn is the most outspoken and active of NL's MPS. It seems to go over well with his constituents.
The liberals had near-perfect-storm conditions in that riding in the 2004 election with Siobhan Coady spending every cent down to the nano-nickel and starting her campaign uber early with top organization, a fear campaign against Harper, and a hail mary mid-election promise from Martin on the offshore and they were still unable to unseat Hearn!
Hearn has faced most of each party's political heavyweights . . . From Furey to Malone to Coady.
22 06 05 Bear and Ape
The venom being spewed by the angry Newfoundlanders posters over the budget and the Atlantic Accord should be indicative of what both Hearn and Doyle should expect in the upcoming election. As of now this riding is too close to call, but we feel that Hearn will edge out the Liberal candidate. Why? It doesn't look like the Conservatives will form a government and in such a case, Atlantic Canadians are more comfortable voting Tory. We also agree with Mike D that it would be wise to have some opposition in Newfoundland (but we're not voting there, so not much we could do about it) as opposed to totally going Liberal. Never the less the election is not anytime soon and much could change till then.
01 06 05 M. Lunn
Actually the Conservatives support the Atlantic Accord and supported C-43. They only voted against C-48, which is the new NDP spending initiatives. That being said, if the budget fails and the Atlantic Accord isn't passed separately than Loyola Hearn will lose. However, if the Conservatives can get the Atlantic Accord separated into a stand-alone legislation which the NDP also supports, at the committee level, then Loyola Hearn will likely win since he can argue he only opposed the big NDP spending initiatives. Lets remember, not to long ago the Conservatives were well ahead in Newfoundland when they supported the Atlantic Accord and the liberals didn't. Also in the riding of Labrador, the Conservatives got only 15% in 2004, while 32% in the recent by-election, so their support hasn't really fallen that much. Still too close to call, but I think the Tories will take the two St. John's ridings, and the liberals the rest.
26 05 05 Mike D
Hearn is in for a rough time but I still think he'll barely survive. He made a poor choice to be loyal to his party over his province. Nonetheless, it wouldn't be healthy for Newfoundland to elect all Liberal MPs. They need a critical voice on fisheries matters (having all yes-men is dangerous with the resource continuing to be in such peril), even if it has to be Hearn.
23 05 05
Well the historic Atlantic Accord is now passed, no thanks to the two conservatives, Hearn and Doyle. Writing that I am disappointed is an understatement, just as all newfoundlanders are. Our native sons who exacted a pound of flesh from Efford for not voting to call the Prime Minister a liar. These Benedict Arnolds should hang thier heads in shame....they chose party over people and will pay a price in the next election. Hearn Stated:
"a weasel" who "didn't have the nerve to stand up and vote for the province." - Loyola Hearn on Gerry Byrne, Western Star, November 17, 2004
Now who is the WEASEL. This seat is definitely Liberal territory
17 05 05 Tony
I'm putting this down as an opinion, rather than a real prediction... same as St. John's East.
I think that both St. John seats will be vulernable if both Conservative Members vote against the Budget and the Atlantic Accords... it may be bigger and more recent ammo for the Liberals than AdScam (which is old news to a degree) is for the Tories. Both Hearn and Doyle better be ready for a fight if a Spring election is called - as both men only won by about 2,000 votes. There is a small campaign going by Newfoundlanders to put pressure on these Conservatives to support the budget. I'm not sure if they'll lose, but I do think it will be very close...
17 05 05 Leonard Phair
Last election should prove one thing. The majority of voters did not want Hearn. It may be true that he is strong voice but people are growing tired of the same old faces. Hearn goes back to the Peckford days. Ms. Coady almost won despite the scandal, gun registry and an amazing showing from the NDP. I believe that Hearn will not win this seat, the polls are turning on the conservatives and Premier Williams public lambasting of Hearn for turning his back on his province will not help his cause.
To quote Hearn: "You cannot ever turn your back on your province on an important issue like this, even if it meant your party says, tough stuff, you have to sit in the last seat, last row" - Loyola Hearn, St. John's Telegram, March 26, 2005
Now it appears that Hearn is contradicting himself and will pay the price and lose his seat
17 05 05 EGH
Incumbent Loyola Hearn won the seat by a mere 4.5% of the bvote last time out. That translates to less than 1500 votes.
Much will depend on his voting on Thursday. Is he is obviously running scared given that he is talking in riddles about how he will vote.
05 05 05 JC
Hearn will win here, it was close last time and it might still be. Hearn might lose his seat even, but so long as the CPC is at the same level in the polls they were last time, they will win.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
I expect Loyola Hearn to be re-elected unless there is a conservative backlash for defeating the budget and thereby defeating the Atlantic Accord. However, Loyola Hearn has been one of the strongest pushers for the Atlantic Accord and the Conservatives have promised to pass it shortly after being elected. He would likely be the next fisheries minister should he win and should the conservatives form government.

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