2:16 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:14 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Central Nova
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Allan H. Bezanson
Alexis MacDonald
Peter G. MacKay
David Orton
Dan Walsh

Peter MacKay

2004 Result:
Peter G. MacKay
Alexis MacDonald
Susan L. Green
Rebecca Mosher

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 01 06 RS
Loftus... Are you crazy? He's a "good honest MP"??? Of all the things you could say about Peter McKay that is the one thing that has been proven to be furthest from the truth. Let me remind you of two things:
1)He signed a contract in order to win a leadership race.. then did exactly what he agreed not to do in that contract. He didn't just break a part of the contract, he broke the entire point of the contract.
2)Definition of "Honest": habitually speaking the truth
22 12 05 Loftus
Updating my prediction....
I have hosted a student vote forum with students at my school NNEC in New Glasgow and it seems to be a two way race between (you guessed it) NDP and CPC. The Tories I feel will win again, if you look to cbc.ca's opinion on this you may think something different but I've found that although Ms.MacDonald would probably be a good MP, Peter MacKay is PM material and people see him as a good honest MP. People in this riding are old school PCer's and they realize 2 things of that storied party:
1)The PC had trouble keeping official party status in 1997 and 2000. The PC was spliting like minded votes in Ontario and elsewhere with the Allience. If there was one party in 1993 the Tories could have won this seat as well.
2)David Orchard was a reformaphobic who failed to realize that the PC was dead as a national party. Peter didn't have a hidden agenda on that convention floor in 2003, he was at the time hoping that he couild rebuild. He polled the PC membership of Canada and reached a 90% majority for merger! Anyone saying Peter sold out the party wasn't a PCer in 2003 or ever. I wish they'd stop pretending to be to shoot down an honest MP.
21 12 05 LM
I could hardly believe my eyes that someone in Central Nova thinks the Liberal could actually leapfrog the NDP and then Tory MacKay to take the seat. Two simple words, dream on.
Not only is MacKay the most popular conservative politician in Canada, he has a solid team behind him that is unparallel in the riding. By contrast, Danny Walsh, while a nice man, has no team outside of his very large family and does not have the intellectual capacity to debate MacKay (I heard he had to read off notes in the first debate).
My predicition: Walsh betters Greene's 2004 performance, NDP still second, MacKay wins in a landslide!
08 12 05 Michael M
Tranton works is going to cut up to 400 jobs and Peter MacKay is doing nothing in this riding. The NDP and the Green voters will vote in Danny Walsh and Liberals this time.
06 12 05 M. Lunn
Peter MacKay won't lose his seat. Besides this being a conservative area, as it becomes clear that Harper won't win the next election, I can only see this as helping Peter MacKay since he is the mostly likely successor of the party. Most polls show the NDP down from last election and the Liberals up so I actually think the Liberals will come in second, but a 6,000 vote gap is way too much to overcome in 17 months where very little has changed in the political landscape. If any Tory goes down in defeat in Nova Scotia, it would be Gerald Keddy, and even that is highly unlikely.
05 12 05 RDI
I think people are getting tired of MacKay. Last election provided some evidence of this. A relatively unknown NDP candidate secured the support of almost 11,000 constituents to MacKay's 16,000. I expect that things will be even closer this time. There is a lot of NDP support in this riding and I expect MacDonald's second campaign will be stronger than the first. The Liberal candidate will steal votes from MacKay, making a close 3-way race with the NDP winning by a mere 500 votes.
28 11 05 DM
Even though Alexis will run again I have to admit Peter will hold this riding.
My question is what happened between Peter and the soon to be announced Liberal candidate Danny Walsh? This guy has always been an active Tory whose personal views on issues like same sex marriage seemed to fall in line with the Conservative position. How he can leave the Cons is beyond me.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
Peter Mackay's credibility has continued to sank in the last year but he will be saved on account of the heavy Tory tendencies of the riding. Relatively close Conservative win here.
11 11 05 Loftus
Peter will win by even more than last time, guaranteed. Susan Green didn't go over very well with electors last election and unless the NDP can garner up another play on words candidate this is going to be a majority. Also, people aren't as afraid of Harper as they were in '04 and this will secure the "nervous N-Dipper" vote.
03 07 05 Mike D
I have to say that A.S. really insulted the voters of Central Nova. As if they really thought they were voting for Alexa. Come on! Yeah, Peter MacKay will likely win again. But he has to be worried about Harper's unpopularity throughout Atlantic Canada. It could be tighter than he'd like.
03 07 05
Even if the NDP decided not to play a candidate in hopes of directing all the votes to the Liberal candidate, MacKay would still win. MacKay as in former PC leader, and Deputy Leader of the whole entire Conservative of Canada. No, if the NDP (or Liberals) decides not to play a candidate, Tory voters who didn't vote last time will have a reason to get their bottoms out and vote.
16 05 05 CGH
In the current political climate Mackay is unbeatable. Simple as that. If the Liberals had some momentum towards a majority and a decent candidate ran here I'd say they would be able to take it. However, the former is not the case and the latter is still unknown.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
My home riding. Peter is a local hero here and I think he might just squeek over that 50% of the vote that has eluded him here since 97 in this election...
12 05 05 A.S.
Don't overestimate NDP strength in Central Nova; the only reason they landed in second place in 2004 is that their candidate was fortuitously/confusingly named "Alexis MacDonald". Mistaken identity, y'know. Any palpable slow swing to the NDP will only bear fruit if (a) the Liberals become as marginalized in Nova Scotia as they were in the West in the 80s, or (b) Charlie Parker, popular MLA for Soviet Pictou-West-stan, becomes their federal standard-bearer (and MacKay stands down, or switches to some York Region riding in order to be next to his lovely Belinda). Really, this is very traditionally Tory (albeit of the now-almost-anachronistic PC nature), and MacKay simply upholds old electoral patterns. And the default contrary electoral mode out Antigonish/StFX way remains Liberal, and it remained so even through the NDP's late 90s provincial high ebb...
07 05 05 Aric H
I will have to predict Peter MacKay of the Conservatives here because although the NDP and the Liberals together had more votes than the Conservatives in this riding last year, one party would have to agree not to run in order to get the votes going towards one centre/left candidate to defeat MacKay. This is the same situation as exists in Edmonton-Strathcona.
06 05 05 RJW
I live in this riding, I think MacKay is going to win with probably about 55%. The placement of the Liberals and the NDP (second or third) will depend on their candidates. I am also comfortable in saying that this riding is swinging slowly to the NDP and I predict they will win it at some point down the road.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
However much I or others would like to hope so, no one can realistically defeat Peter MacKay. Like Alexa, it seems he's destined to win this riding by less then 50% of the vote because of the splitting of the vote in the other two parties. With gomery, I dont see the Liberals being able to get the momentum to beat him here, and with the NDP down in the atlantic, I dont see them gaining the momentum either. This could be his best election yet.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is Rural Nova Scotia, which tends to be quite conservative. Add to the fact that Peter MacKay will likely be the next Deputy Prime-Minister if the conservatives win and possibly a future prime-minister. Besides He won by over 15% and with the liberals declining, there is no way he will lose his riding even if all the liberal losses go to the NDP. 60% of liberals would have to go NDP or vice versa to defeat MacKay.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Central Nova is a weird riding. It's got a major university and some working class areas, where people are more inclined to vote NDP. And you have rural areas, which are Conservative turf. But the deciding factor in this riding is MacKay. Peter is a very charismatic, popular MP who teenage girls are, for some reason, very attracted to. Due to the MacKay name, and his popularity, the vote will go to Peter MacKay, with or without the Conservative Party. Once MacKay stops running here, though, it will be an easy NDP pickup. My prediction: MacKay holds in 2005 45% to 37% over the NDP candidate.
28 04 05 McGuire
Central Nova is definitely going Peter MacKay, no 2 ways about it. He faced a bit of a tough challenge last time from the NDP, & they should have a strong showing again this time, but Peter will of course win.

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