1:47 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:17 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Robert A. Campbell
Peter Mancini
Elizabeth Perry
Michael Savage
Charles Spurr

Michael Savage

2004 Result:
Michael John Savage
Susan MacAlpine-Gillis
Mike MacDonald
Michael Marshall
Tracy Parsons
Charles Spurr

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 ME
Last election Mike received some unlikely suppport when several higher profile Tories came out publicly and said they couldn't under any circumstance support Stephen Harper, who at the time was a very scary individual after the merger of the PC party and the Canadian Reform Alliance party. What remains to be seen in this election is whether that Tory suppport will now revert back to the Conservative party. If it does, it could turn this riding into a tight three way race which I believe the NDP will win as I think they will maintain and possibly increase their base of support with a strong candidate in Mancini and therefore come out on top.
08 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Liberal. The NDP has only one relatively narrow chance to win. The two also-rans, Michael Marshall (1311) and Tracy Parsons (415), were the best their parties had, and neither of them is running again. This means there are maybe a thousand votes that may swing in a close race. An NDPer who can pick up the Green Party platform and promote a few centrist and locally relevant items from it, and say they're doing that, could pick up easily a thousand votes. Especially if the PC protest votes that went to Parsons go to someone waving the Green platform rather than the actual Green candidate - very likely if the NDP is obvious about it. The more centrist nature of that platform compared to the NDP's own will also pull a few Liberal votes.
So the only way the NDPer can win is to pull to the right and to the green side of their own party. Since they're the NDP, they will not figure this out, or not have the guts to do it, and will lose. Therefore a Liberal win.
28 12 05 Aric H
It appears that the NDP really wants this riding and has really set their hearts on it. However, I am not sure if they can make up the 4,000 votes they lost it by last time. The problem for the NDP in the Maritimes right now is that their numbers are not as solid under Layton as they were under Alexa McDonough. Where the leader is from geographically does appear to affect elections in Canada. This is probably why the NDP now has only 3 seats in Atlantic Canada compared to several times that when Alexa was leader and why they have many more in Ontario now that Layton is leader. An Atlantic NDP leader brought more Atlantic seats just as an Ontario NDP leader brings more Ontario seats. I suspect that Yvon Godin, Alexa M & Peter Stoffer may remain the only 3 New Democrats in the Maritimes until the Atlantic numbers go up for the NDP. If Wendy Lill was still here she could retain the seat as she was popular, but now that Savage is the incumbent I suspect it will remain Liberal.
26 12 05 marion
If dart cole harbour is too close to call,no liberal riding is safe. even ndp organizer ian wark...running the ns camapign,said savge is well liked and everyone knows him.
23 12 05 Mark R.
I think that there is alot of baggage with the Liberal party that needs to "come home to roost". Mancini is a serious candidate and the incumbency factor is not always a positive influence. I agree with previous posters that the area is an NDP stronghold provincially and that this does in fact carry some weight federally. This comes down to which party will have momentum come the latter stages of the campaign. I think that the Liberals time is up and as such, this may well fall into the NDP column come January 23.
12 12 05 Social Democrat
OK... let's set the record straight. Peter Mancini lives in Dartmouth. He moved to Dartmouth in 2000 with his family. They bought a house here. His children go to school here and his wife works here as well. He has been active in the community since moving here. He did not "pick" another riding to run in after holding Sydney-Victoria.
That said, I won't predict this outcome. The last NDP candidate was weak. Peter Mancini is NOT a weak candidate. The NDP hold most of the provincial ridings (More, Massey, Dexter, Deveaux, Pye). They have it targeted. If the NDP remain @ 20%, then this could swing their way. We'll know come the last week of the campaign.
08 12 05 Mike D
Note to M. Lunn: Mancini and his family have lived in this riding for a few years now. Keep in mind that there are many people with Cape Breton roots in this riding (not to mention folks from Newfoundland, PEI and many other places) who've come to HRM - with its strong economy - to pursue their careers ...just like Mancini.
07 12 05 Jackson Triggs
The latest Corporate Research Poll has the Liberals with a significant lead in Atlantic Canada and in Nova Scotia in Particular. It indicates that NDP and Conservative support is slipping. I won’t comment about what is obviously the NDP spin toward Savage which is to give a false impression that he is low profile, it seems they intend to follow the adage that the more often one repeats a falsehood then it will eventually be believed....so expect those postings from the know it all socialists.
07 12 05 graham beans
ya, we all know Savage is a nice guy and everyone from all parties like him very much....but he is also effective....the RIM announcment, the work he has done for the Acadian community, the East Dartmouth Community Centre, the Downtown Downtown facade, etc, he has been active and effective and he will be relected, I know that bothers the socialists, but tough!
07 12 05 Jam
Mike D is right on target. Savage is a low key but decent MP. Mancini is an NDP washout and will lose this election. No amount of targeting this riding will make it winnable. The core of this riding is the North Central part of Dartmouth it will produce a full third of the NDP vote. The lack of work provincially on the part of many MLA has doomed this once NDP stronghold, thanks to the hard work of former MP Wendy Lill, to being a Liberal seat this time around
07 12 05 I.M.
The Conservatives have nominated Robert Campbell, a 28-year RCMP veteran. He doesn't really have a hope of winning the riding, left-leaning as it is, but a policeman focusing on a law-and-order message might be enough to bleed some right-wing support away from Savage and make it a tight battle between Savage & Mancini.
On the flip side, Campbell is pro-traditional marriage (interesting reaction at the nomination meeting to this: most if not all of the older generation broke out in applause, the younger members sat very still), which might chase the Red Tory vote right back into Liberal hands.
So I'd say it's Savage's race to lose, but it's not a sure thing.
30 11 05 BrianJA
Nobody is denying that Mike is a nice guy. I've met him several times and I like him well enough. But the fact is that this riding will go NDP, simply because the D-CH NDP are going all out in this election and the federal NDP have it heavily targetted. It will be close, I'll give you, but Mancini will come out on top.
03 12 05 Mike D
Despite Savage's low profile he may survive. When you doing nothing, you also do nothing wrong. I'm not seeing much optimism for this in NDP circles so I'm switching my prediction to Liberal based on regional numbers that don't show any improvement, maybe even a slight slippage, for the NDP. BUT Liberal numbers in this region have fallen during elections in the past, so I could change my mind again based on the polls. I know the board managers are wise enough to keep the posts from Savage's cheerleaders in perspective.
BTW I wonder how RIMs problems will impact their new investment here.
02 12 05 M. Lunn
Most polls in Atlantic Canada show the Liberals up slightly and the NDP down slightly so I cannot see the NDP picking up any ridings. If anything they are more likely to lose Alexa McDonough than win this riding. Peter Mancini doesn't even live in the area so I cannot see him as helping the NDP. Also Michael Savage is a very strong MP not to mention he is on the left of the party, which should appeal to some of the swing voters.
28 11 05 Michael H
Mike Savage has been an extremely strong and vocal MP and anyone who says he is invisible is surely blind. I believe that he has spoken more in the House than any other rookie member. Mancini lost at home and so off he goes to a stronger NDP riding. Completely transparent opportunism. I suppose if Alexa ever throws in the towel then Peter will be packing his bags for Halifax. Savage will hold on because the voters will see through Mancini`s self-interested move from Cape Breton.
28 11 05 KBC
Savage has been anything but invisible. Look at the announcements he's put in Dartmouth that the NDP could never do. One of the last federal budget's biggest deliverables for N.S. was for the Coast Guard, based in Dartmouth. Savage fought for it and got it. In this month's fiscal update the biggest deliverable was money for education-and it just so happens Savage is the Liberal Chair on post secondary education. Savage delivers.
25 11 05 Jim
With the RIM announcement today, Savage should be fairly comfortable.
24 11 05 A. Curry
It is odd that some are suggesting that Mr.Savage is invisible as a MP, when he ranks as one the top new MP's in the HOuse of Commons, listed as number 1 of all new members of parlaiment in terms of speaking in the House of Commons, defending the interests of the people of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour....another example of the NDP spinners...
22 11 05 KSR
Mike Savage has been an excellent MP. Far from being invisible, he's been front and centre on issues key to Dartmouth Cole Harbour. Do you seriously think the federal government would have freed up federally-owned waterfront land for the Canada Games bid if Mike had been a "do-nothing" M.P., as one of the NDP member who wrote in suggested??
22 11 05 Gerry St-Amand
Mike Savage has been highly visible: a high profile MP on the Health Committee and influential as Chair of the caucus committee on higher education. Not bad for a rookie MP! I would guess minority government kept him in Ottawa more than usual.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
While the last results suggest the NDP is competitive here, on the federal scene they have been slowly fading away since 1997 in this province, with the 2004 election being sort of a last gasp based solely on specific problems that the Conservatives then had in the province and no longer have (or at least nowhere to the same extent). With the Conservatives not being that competitive locally, this seat will remain in the Liberal column.
18 11 05 BrianJA
Savage is invisible here. But so is Mancini. If Peter wants to win here, he's going to have to pound pavement starting right now! From what I know of Peter, though, I got a good feeling he'll be working him butt off here during the next election and we'll be sitting in an orange riding, both federally and provincially, once more.
01 06 05 Mike D
Savage is the invisible man. He will pay for not saying anything about anything, including the Atlantic Accord. The Liberals will try to paint Mancini as a CFA Cape Bretoner, but I don't think it will work as Mancini and his family have been living in the riding for at least a couple of years now (IIRC). Mancini simply has the profile that Savage lacks in this NDP/Liberal swing seat.
23 05 05 JR
Anyone who thinks the Conservatives are going to win this riding don't know it very well. They have simply picked a different face to run third this time. This will be a Savage/Mancini horserace with the Liberals likely hanging on. The only wildcard is Parsons has been elected leader of the PC Party and could capture much of the PC vote that went Liberal last time, allowing Mancini to sneak up the middle. Either way, there will be no Conservative breakthrough here.
22 05 05 Tyler Cameron
The conservatives have chosen a very strong candidate, a former ATV news reporter and a moderate. He supports same sex marriage, abortion and most main stream things that the conservative candidate didn’t in the last election. The libs and NDP are both strong in this riding so i belive conditions are right for A Conservative Win right up the middle. Winning by only 150 votes.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
The nomination is Monday according to my NDP source, which would conflict with the Budget Vote at Province House now wouldn't it, anyways, won't call it till then. All the same, I am leaning NDP on this one, especially if they don't nominate Mancini
11 05 05 GL
Mike ran a very strong campaign last time and won with a very large margin for this "swing" riding. Has been very visible and effective as an MP. Race will likely be close, but should win it with a reduced plurality. Strong ties to the community and the Savage name a clear positive advantage.
10 05 05 JH
Mike Savage is a do nothing backbencher who only got elected because of his father's name. Look for the NDP to seriously threaten this Liberal seat as Mancini is a strong candidate.
09 05 05 Jason Cherniak
This is probably the closest Liberal seat in the region. However, Michael Savage is a good man and people in Nova Scotia actually care about things like that. I think he will cement the seat in this election and hold it for many years to come as the new NS lieutenant when Regan is done.
07 05 05 BrianJA
JC, do you actually live in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour? Well, I do and I can tell you, without any hint of arrogance, that Mancini WILL win this riding. I say that, not because I'm a New Democrat and not because I'm assisting with Peter Mancini's campaign. I say that, because the people of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour are open to change. Savage may be a leftist Liberal and a nice enough man, but he really is running on his name alone. If his name was Mike Smith, he wouldn't have a prayer, and even now it'll be close, but Peter Mancini has support like nobody's business here in Dartmouth and all Savage has is a little more money. Mancini will win with less than a 1000 votes, but he'll win nonetheless.
06 05 05 RJW
Dartmouth is pretty left-wing; the NDP is probably a better fit but it's hard to beat the Savage name and as Liberals go, Mike Savage is pretty NDP-ish. Plus, as someone already mentioned, NDPers will also support him out of fear that the Tories could win.
06 05 05 NF
Mancini is a strong candidate and was a good MP in Sydney-Victoria. However, he was knocked off by a political neophite in his hometown. It is indicative of the challenge he will will face in Darthmouth Cole Harbour - a area which is very parochial and not prone to support a transplanted Cape Bretoner. The riding has strong incumbent in Savage who has the talent to be in a future cabinet should the leadership of the Liberal party change. This one will go Liberal.
05 05 05 JC
Well I do hear the NDP has a strong candidate in Mancini but seriously, Michael Savage is much better known, he's the son of John Savage, the former premier, he was president of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party. He will win again.
05 05 05
The likely match up of Mike Savage of the Grits and Peter Mancini of the NDP, is one to watch.....I think these are two very strong and decent people, although word is that Savage has been a strong constit guy and a left leaning liberal....that should help in the riding with leftist leanings...Mancini will be hampered by the cape breton connection when he was a former MP, some will no doubt point to his quick departure from cape breton following is 2000 loss....I predict Savage in a race between two good guys.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Beyond the three ridings the NDP holds currently in Atlantic Canada, this is the only one I see them having a realistic chance of picking up. That being said, I still think Michael Savage can hold this since he has strong name recognition as being the son of the late premier John Savage. This is also a swing riding so it will depend on how frightened NDP voters are of a conservative win and whether they decide to go liberal to stop Stephen Harper.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Peter Mancini is likely to win the NDP nomination here in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour. Savage is a relatively weak MP and not in the cabinet. Mancini has been an MP before, and is a very charismatic and intelligent man. It may be close, but I'm still going to call this one for Mancini and the NDP.

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