2:16 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:16 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Andrew House
Martin MacKinnon
Alexa McDonough
Tony Seed
Nick Wright

Alexa McDonough

2004 Result:
Alexa McDonough
Sheila Fougere
Kevin Leslie Keefe
Michael Oddy

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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17 01 06 Aric H
I'm not sure why Sheila Fougere is not running for the Liberals again since she placed a strong 2nd last time. The fact that the Liberal candidate is probably weaker this year than Fougere, combined with a lower vote for the Liberals in this election, should mean that Alexa wins more comfortably than she did in 2004.
17 01 06 Politico
Wow - it's great to see so many NDP operatives filling up this message board. It's a clear sign of desperation. Alexa's margin of victory has been decreasing over the past few elections and in 2004, Halifax was the closest race in the province - she only won by 2%. She's vulnerable. And no, this isn't mindless spin. Last week's poll released by Omnifacts confirms it - the pollster was quoted in Saturday's Chronicle Herald, Alexa's seat is vulnerable. But this isn't the first time we heard this. Don Mills, a pollster with CRA, said the exact same thing before the campaign began. Alexa is going down - it's only a question of who will take her out. And in this race, I'll put my money on MacKinnon.
12 01 06 Hey, Nonny!
I have just returned from the (almost-)all candidates forum held at the Dalhousie Student Union Building. I am not a student myself, but heard about it on the radio and decided to attend, not knowing whether I would have another opportunity. I should say that most of the audience were young people, but that I was far from being the only non-student in the room.
During the opening statement section of the debate, it was the conservative and green party candidates who received the loudest, and rowdiest, ovations; but I think that this can be attributed, at least to a certain extent, to the presence of well-organised claques. But by about half way through, it was clear that Alexa had won the crowd over, and it was she who received by far the longest ovation after her closing statement.
The conservative candidate, Andrew House, impressed me. He spoke about working for the UN and as a lawyer representing third-world refugees, and answered hostile questions about same-sex marriage and former US soldiers seeking asylum in Canada firmly but graciously. He also surprised me, at least, by criticizing the way "security certificates" have been used to detain five men indefinitely and without charge; one certainly didn't get the impression that he is right-wing extremist as earlier posts allege---except, perhaps, from that ultra-squeaky-clean look....
By contrast, the liberal candidate, who apparently teaches at St. Mary's, sounded like he had had a chip implanted in his brain to better parrot Team Martin slogans and cliches. In addition, I felt he was quite rude towards Alexa, at first failing to acknowledge her position as incumbent, and later professing not to know her position on various issues which would be well-known to anyone who read a newspaper.
The green candidate won points for earnestness and well-intentionedness; but, frankly, he is an abysmal public speaker---the mere thought of him on the floor of the commons was enough to make you shudder. The M-L candidate was only allowed to make an opening statement, supposedly because the organisers "didn't know he was running"; he wasted most of his two minutes discussing his exclusion.
So, I'm going to put this one down for the NDP: based on what I saw, there is no reason for the tory vote to collapse; neither is there any reason for NDP support to bleed to the liberals, greens, or marxist-leninists. If anything, I expect a closer race for second place, with the tories up and the liberals down.
14 12 05 Bear and Ape
We stand corrected - Former Student is right that you needn't live in a riding 6 months prior to voting there in a Federal election, yet we reinterate that one shouldn't bet on student vote influencing results that much. Most students could not be bothered to make it to the polling booths on election day, let alone make the phone call necessary to be on the voter's list in their school riding. Never the less we still predict an NDP win. CPC is going absolutely nowhere in the Atlantic provinces, let alone tripling their votes to beat Alexa. As for Liberals coming close in 2004, well they had a star candidate that time, who do they have now? Funny how no one seems to know and the people predicting a Liberal victory haven't said anything about his qualifications....
14 12 05 former student
Correction to Bear and Ape - there is no longer any rules about how long you have to live somewhere to vote there. Last election I voted in my University riding rather than my home riding after only living there for 2 months. It was also surprisingly easy to register.
12 12 05 G.H.
Alexa has been clinging to this seat thanks to her star power as a former leader. This is pretty much forgotten, and Jack Layton is a much less attractive leader to Maritimers than she was. Coupled with some big Liberal announcements in the area, and the close result last time, she might not make it.
12 12 05 Jonathan
Alexa won last time with 2% in JUNE! The students were not around, and with 3 universities in her riding, Alexa will benefit this time. Do your homework, this is a clear NDP victory.
08 12 05 Tom
Alexa has done nothing to stop the rising costs of tuitions in this province. Nova Scotia has the highest tuitions in all of Canada. The Tories nominated a young candidate for Halifax who will resonate with many of her voters. The Tories are gaining ground with younger voters, Alexa is vulnerable, and the Liberals have lost some credibility. Tories will close the gap in Halifax. I also suspect that they will gain a lot of seats in New Brunswick.
03 12 05 Mike D
Fougere isn't running again. If the Liberals had convinced her to run again, I would have put this in the TC column. Alas, the new Liberal candidate is a businessman without any public profile. Alexa should be quite safe this time. Regional numbers for the NDP are equal or slightly less compared to 2004 but this particular race shouldn't be a worry for them.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
Alexa McDonough could only keep this seat by a two-point margin in the last election. She is no longer the legend she used to be, is vulnerable and the Liberals know it. Liberals will pick up this seat.
13 09 05 Bear and Ape
Quick caution note for the previous poster; never count on the student population to cause much of a sway in the outcome of an election. Students tend not to vote in large numbers and those that do usually vote in their home ridings. You must have resided at least 6 consecutive months in a particular riding to vote there (assuming students moved in at the start of September, then they would be eligible no sooner than March). Most students could not be bothered with the forms and red tape. In any case, we think Alexa is still in good shape since the NDP have been looking responsible and since the CPC don't seem poised to form a government (Atlantic Canadians have been known to vote Libereal to block the Conservatives). Bottom line, Alexa is good for now (without the help of students).
03 06 05 RJW
Yes, the Liberals, with the right candidate, could win this. It was SO close last time, and the Tories have nominated a very "pro-family" lawyer, Andrew House, to be their candidate instead of moderate TV commentator Ross Haynes (dumb move, HFX Tories). Moderate Tories could jump to the Liberals with the right person running under their banner. Alexa should win if the election occurs when university students are in, though.
27 05 05 James
Believe it or not, the NDP might have a real problem winning this riding! The conservatives, according to the Globe and Mail have nominated a Christian right extremist to run in this and other ridings. Talk at the Legion this afternoon had many of my friends concerned at what in the name of all that is holy is going on inside the Conservative Party. They are electing individuals with hidden agendas while claiming they don't one, Harper seriously missed an opportunity to take down the Liberals by not being able to keep members in his own caucus - and anyone, mostly Conservative spin doctors I presume, who want to suggest that Belinda only crossed the floor to move up, I would point out that polls and talk at the time suggested that the Conservative Party was the place to be as it would be forming government soon. And besides, can we actually sit here and believe that Belinda could beat out a life long Liberal like Manley, or Copps, or Tobin for the leadership? I predict the Conservative vote will actually slip further, and I'm not sure that those on the Right would jump all the way to the NDP on the Left. Watch out.. Liberals have a shot with a good candidate.
26 05 05 Mike D
The close finish last time looked like a problem for Alexa, but thanks to Gomery she will win this time. But this may be the last time.
16 05 05 CGH
This one was so close last time around and I think with Alexa out of the spotlight of the party leader's role she is quickly losing her star power. However, without the strength of great positive momentum the Liberals will simply not be able to pull this one off. The Conservatives are non-entities here and as long as Harper is leader I can't see that changing.
09 05 05 Jason Cherniak
I hate to make this prediction, but I don't think Alexa is going to lose. She is certainly not safe, but Sheila Fougere is not running again and I don't think a new person can beat her. Indeed, Alexa made a big mistake by not ending this time because she could have handed it off to a winner. Next election, the Liberals will take it.
07 05 05 BrianJA
Alexa's victories are a bit like Svend Robinson's victories, i.e. close but always final. Alexa McDonough is the Foreign Affairs critic for the NDP, she's a former leader and she's one of the nicest ladies I've ever met. She will win, as Nick said, based on who she is, not what party she runs for. She could run as an Independant and still win. Yes, it'll be close, but Alexa is going back to Ottawa and there's no doubt in my mind of that.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
I wouldn't be so quick to call this one. Alexa McDonough will probably be re-elected, although the fact she is no longer leader means her candidacy carries less weight than before. If the race becomes polarized between the liberals and conservatives, then this could go liberal.
04 05 05 Aric H
Alexa won this riding by a little over a thousand votes last year and it was closer than her previous victories. I don't know who the Liberal candidate is but if it is a strong candidate like last time it could be close again. Alexa still has some exposure nationally although Jack Layton should give her a strong role in the NDP if he wants to ensure her win here in the next election.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is, has been, and will be, Alexa's riding. She'll win here until she retires. Alexa is one of the few people in atlantic canada who wins because of who she is not what party she's in. I cant see the Liberals being able to win here, not with Gomery, and not against Alexa.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Halifax was a close one last time around. However, the Liberals don't have the momentum coming in to this election. Alexa is still very popular here, so she'll hold on to her seat, unless they recruit a strong Liberal candidate again like Fougere and a decent Conservative candidate splits the vote. It may yet still be close again, but not as close as last time and Alexa will still come out on top. Prediction: Alexa McDonough and the NDP by at least 1500 votes
26 04 05 JFB
Malgré un possible raz-de-marée conservateur dans l'Atlantique, selon certains commentateurs politiques, si le NPD doit conserver un siège ici, c'est Halifax avec Alexa. Elle possède maintenant un aura personnel. Les gens voteront pour Alexa avant de voter NPD. Victoire du NPD.

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