2:16 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
11:17 PM 03/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Halifax West
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Alan Hill
Rakesh Khosla
Geoff Regan
Thomas Trappenberg

Hon. Geoff Regan

2004 Result:
Geoff Regan
Bill Carr
Ken MacPhee
Martin Willison

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 Max K.
I'm not sure what riding TSmith is talking about but it's clearly can't be Halifax West. The Conservatives have absolutely no presence here-- their candidate has been lambasted by the media for weeks for the fact that he's been dead silent and hiding from reporters (ever since he skipped a candidates debate to attend an anti-same sex marriage rally.) After Khosla's performance of his party's (inaccurately?) scripted policy at the second candidates debate, he'll be lucky to keep the Conservative vote from the last election. NDP will continue to strategically move to Liberals as it gets closer to election day and Regan (who has been a strong voice for this riding) will take this seat hands down.
Regan: 20000
Hill: 10000
Khosla: 8000
Trappenburg: 2000
14 01 06 TSmith
The Conservatives are coming on strong in Bedford and will cut into Regan's margin. It is now a fact that Regan will not be a minister as the Liberals will not form government. This is also going to cut into the margin. With NDP voters not voting stratigically this time and the business vote split the NDP will again come up the middle as Gordon Earle did.
12 01 06 M. Lunn
This won't go Conservative. For starters, Rakesh Kholsa is known as a religious fundamentalist, which is not helpful in urban ridings, but also despite the national gains for the Tories, they have only gone up slightly in Atlantic Canada meaning they may pick up a few seats here, but not this one.
10 01 06 The Buck
Rakesh is mounting a strong campaign. He may not win but he will eat into Regan's plurality, finishing a strong second at the worst. To the extent that lawn signs are an indicator of support, his signs outnumber the NDP signs significantly. In the last election, NDP signs were every-where while this time they are sparse.
09 12 05 JG
Regan will have no problem holding onto Halifax West. The Conservative candidate, Rakesh Khosla, was nominated by members of the religious right to be a mouthpiece against same-sex marriage, and Allan Hill, the NDP candidate, is a union-connected Dalhousie student from Ontario who lives in Halifax's South End, a 15-minute drive from the riding in which he's running. Regan's popularity, status as a cabinet minister, and clean image (he wasn't an MP when the sponsorship scandal was at its height in the late 1990s) will allow him to keep his seat again, and by a sizable margin--in 2004 he won by 8000 votes over a well-known local celebrity, so these two unknowns should be a piece of cake.
26 05 05 Mike D
While Gomery has done damage to the Liberals nationally, many seats in Atlantic Canada will stick with them regardless. This is one of them, whether Carr runs for the NDP or even if they have another candidate. The Conservatives could have potential here but forget it this time as they are perceived as undermining the Atlantic Accord.
16 05 05 CGH
Easily Geoff Regan. The only threat here is the NDP, but I think Regan has established himself here just as well as Mackay has in Central Nova. This is probably the safest Liberal seat outside of Cape Breton. I'd say, look for Geoff to be helping other candidates around the province.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
After some thought, I have to agree that this riding will go Liberal. I had throught the NDP could take it, and if anyone will, it will be the NDP, but there are a few reasons why I dont see that happening. First, the leader is no longer from the riding next door. second, the gap last time was too big. third, reagan is popular. and fouth, the Liberals poll numbers in the maritimes have not changed throught gomery. Sure there have been swings, but there were swings in the election too, I remember one poll, in the election, showing the tories at 40% and the liberals at 25% in atlantic canada. Nothing near to that in the recent polls. Liberal win.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Asides from the Cape Breton ridings, this is probably the only other safe liberal riding in Nova Scotia. Geoff Regan won by a large enough margin and with his position as Fisheries Minister, he has enough personal popularity to hold this riding.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Sadly, I'm going to have to call Halifax West as a Liberal hold for right now. The only reason the NDP took it in '97, is because McDonough was leader and boosted the vote here in Nova Scotia. Halifax West loves Regan, and Halifax West is home to the wealthy area of Bedford. Bedford will likely be won by the Nova Scotia Liberal Party Leader, after the next provincial election, which means even more Liberal votes will come from here. With Regan's popularity, combined with the high-income levels in the riding, this riding is a Liberal hold, even if Bill Carr wins the NDP nomination again. Prediction: Liberal hold by 3000 votes.
27 04 05 Jim
No contest. Without even having other candidates nominated this one is clear -- Geoff Regan has delivered for Halifax West, he's delivered for Nova Scotia and he's been one of the best fisheries ministers in recent memory. He will easily win this riding again whenever the next election happens.

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