2:16 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
1:48 PM 16/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

South Shore-St. Margaret's
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Gordon S. Earle
Christian Heritage
Jim Hnatiuk
Darian Malcom Huskilson
Gerald Gordon Keddy
Katie Morris Boudreau

Gerald Keddy

2004 Result:
Gerald Keddy
John Chandler
Gordon Earle
Katie Morris Boudreau

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 K.B.
Though I feel Keddy will win this time around the Christian Heritage vote will largely represent votes that they could have had providing some margin of comfort for the Conservatives. I am from the western portion of the riding and have already cast my vote. I am aware that the CHP candidate has collected both Liberal and Conservative voters who are looking to send a message to candidates in the mainline parties that have chosen to disregard traditional familiy values. The bleeding of votes to the CHP will have a greater negative impact on those who would have voted Conservative than those who would have voted Liberal and will make the vote much closer than it need have been had Keddy taken a stand against SSM.
11 01 06 Bear and Ape
Correction on the SSM vote, there were 3 other Conservative MPs that voted in favour of the bill (Jim Prentice, James Moore and Belinda Stronach). Regardless of the pull of votes by the CHP away from Keddy, we feel he's safe (more or less) based by poll numbers which say the Torys are up slightly in the east. Look for Earle pulling angry left-leaning Liberals away from Huskilson, ensuring a Keddy victory.
10 01 06 The Buck
While it may well stay Conservative, if social conservatives stay home rather than vote for Keddy, he may be in a tight race. I live in the riding next door and I have heard some grumblings about Keddy's support because of SSM. Furthermore, his decision to vote in favor of SSM has not gained him any votes. I would not be surprised if this is the only Conservative seat in Atlantic Canada that goes to the Liberals on election night.
08 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Keddy's facing down the Christian Heritage Party for his stand on same-sex marriage (he voted for the bill, the only Conservative that did) despite it being on legal grounds. This may cost him a few points of votes which could give it to the Liberals.
But if you consider that there's a few points of Green votes parked too, and that that party is very weak and divided this election, it may be easy for Keddy to win this anyway. He acquitted himself well enough in a CBC Radio debate on Maritime Noon focused on the environment, spoke for the whole Maritime region for the Conservative Party on that issue, and really only came second to the Greens' Sharon Labchuk (who is running in PEI). He made a big point of bragging that he had a five-generation woodlot. He has had a lot to say about the fishery.
So all he really has to do is pick up the Green platform and parrot all the forestry and fishery stuff in it, which is all sensible anyway. Woodlot management and fishery management has been getting more sane, and people know that clearcuts, dragging, not protecting fish nurseries, is suicide economically. Keddy could beat the NDP and Liberal positions given that he actually understands what is going on on the software lumber issue as well (in the Maritime Noon debate, those parties sent people who simply didn't).
That said, there's a wild card:
A winter election may keep grumpy old seniors who only want to vote Keddy out for his same-sex marriage stand away, but if there's bad weather it may affect his core vote. That could lose it for him since the NDP and Green vote will be far less affected by the weather.
07 01 06 love, sydney
Keddy is safe, even with the addition of a slice of Halifax east in 2004. This riding has blue roots to go with the Bluenose, and rarely dumps a conservative incumbent. Although Harper's not that popular and the rumblings of momentum are more to Ont and Quebec, Keddy will win by a healthy margin. All three main candidates - Keddy, Huskilson and Earle, have the makings of what you'd want in an MP, so this riding will be well-served. The only thing that will turn this red is McKenna leading the Grits, which could come to fruition in the near future.
26 12 05 CGH
M.Lunn, I don't know what Liberal the person on the CBC website was talking to, but from what I've heard, there seems to be a new energy building in the Liberal camp. They've got a website up and running, campaign offices are buzzing and the response to the candidate has been great. Keddy will have a race on his hands and this riding could be the one shocker from Nova Scotia on election night. Let's not forget, being from and well known in the Shelburne area is going to give the Liberal candidate a huge boost. The fisheries announcement from the Liberals didn't hurt either.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
At the beginning of the campaign when the Liberals had a 20+ point lead, I thought they had a good chance at taking this, but if you take the average of Atlantic Canada's polls, it appears the Tories have narrowed the lead considerably (not enough to pick up any seats though), but enough to at least hold all their seats (except maybe the two St. John's seats), so Gerald Keddy should be re-elected. Even on the CBC forum, one Liberal admitted that the Liberal campaign already concedes they won't win this riding. I suspect Gerald Keddy will get around 40% while the Liberals should increase their share of the vote and the NDP will drop slightly, but not a lot as Gordon Earle is running again. Gerald Keddy's position on same-sex marriage likely won't hurt him as this is not a major campaign issue, and if anything it will probably help him.
07 12 05 Antonio
I believe strategic voting and a strong Liberal campaign might be enough to unseat Keddy here.
He may be popular but the Liberals lost by about 2000 when 10 000 people voted for the NDP. This one will likely be the closest race in the province, everything else is status quo
30 11 05 L.O.
Gerald Keddy is a fairly certain Conservative Hold. Just consider the trends here. With this in mind, and with Keddy's regional popularity, It would seem highly unlikely that this seat would go any other way.
The Halifax Herald also reports that many observers believe Keddy will increase his support -- se it here: http://www.herald.ns.ca/Front/467832.html
This one is a safe Conservative seat. Very safe.
04 12 05 MB Crowell
Gerald Keddy as been elected in the past three elections and the Liberal candidate is an unknown. The NDP held the Riding once but that was by default...vote splitting when the Reform Party was running. Keddy is very popular and has been an effective MP.
03 12 05 Oxfo
CPAC is coming to the South Shore, which is a good indication that change could be in the air. Given how much Stephen Harper is resented in this riding and the rumours that Christian Heritage will be fielding a candidate (draining some of Keddy's uber conservative base), I will have to call this one for the new, young, up and comer, Darian Huskilson.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
The Conservative Party performed poorly in the province in 2004 and they managed to keep this seat anyway. With the Tories poised to do somewhat better in the next election, they will keep this seat relatively easily.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Although I think the liberals have a chance at picking this up, I would say it is not a very good chance. For starters, Stephen Harper was never popular in Atlantic Canada and the numbers for the Tories are more or less the same as last time, maybe even slightly better, but not enough to gain them any seats. Every election Gerald Keddy always seems to scrape by and considering that his worse polls were in St. Margaret's which was new territory for the riding while he did better in South Shore where he was more well known, I think his incumbency should be an asset. Also Gordon Earle is running again for the NDP so the NDP vote collapsing into the liberals is not likely. it is true he has had very little influence in the Conservatives since he is one of the few Joe Clark Red Tories left, which Stephen Harper hates, but after Stephen Harper loses the next election, he will likely have more influence if the Conservatives choose a more moderate leader. Even myself as a liberal would vote for Gerald Keddy if I lived in South Shore-St. Margaret's since rather than jump ship like almost every other Red Tory, he has chosen to stay and fight for the principles he believes in and hopefully some day he will have more influence in the party.
18 07 05 JDF
I agree that the Liberals were wise to go with the younger Darian Huskilson over another stock lawyer sort. Mr. Huskilson is politically astute and seems to understand south shore small community issues. His emerging credibility, combined with (1) a general distrust of Mr. Harper in this area and (2)the voters lack of a strong mandate for Mr. Keddy in the last election, indicates that this riding is up for grabs.
03 07 05 Mike D
I've thought hard about how his stand on SSM will influence his re-election prospects, and I feel it is neutral for Keddy. For every fundamentalist vote he loses, he gains a moderate vote. Keddy's problem is the overall performance of his leader and his party. Atlantic Canadians are especially alienated by Stephen Harper's lust for power and how it almost undid the Atlantic Accord. That's bad news for Keddy who won by such a narrow margin last time. This seat is trending Liberal.
08 06 05 TMH
The Liberals have chosen very wisely in Mayor Darian Huskilson. This may have been Keddy safe ground before but the liberals finally smartened up and stopped throwing Halifax Lawyers at him. Huskilson is an up and coming force and Gerald better not take him for granted. That coupled with Keddy's stand on same sex and the fact that I think Harper scares the life out of Canadians everywhere!
31 05 05 RJW
Keddy always squeaks by, this election shouldn't be any different. Coming out in favor of SSM was a good move because while it attracts moderates who might have voted Liberal otherwise, he knows conservatives won't leave him in favor of the two lefter-leaning parties.
17 05 05 Robert Daniel
Whenever the Liberals do something really wrong, the effect is increased rejection of the Conservative Party based on the fear that the Liberal party might lose. Check how the Liberals raved about the Mulroney government and corruption, against their reaction to Adscam - Liberals steadily rising in the polls. Without Gordon Earl, some of the N.D.P. vote will drift back to this party. Add to that some wishy-washy voters who voted Conservative last time, but who are more afraid of the Conservatives forming a government this time, and I wouldn't be surprised if South Shore were to be a Liberal pick-up.
16 05 05 CGH
This one is far from a sure thing for Gerald Keddy this time around. Many things plague his campaign including Stephen Harper, his support for same sex marriage and his inability to establish his place in the party. Looking at the potential Liberal candidate and their placement in the riding I would strongly suggest that this seat will go to the Liberals.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Keddy has outflanked everyone on the SSM position, anyone opposed to it will likely vote for him because they are Conservative in nature and well the Libs or NDP will not likely nominate an anti-SSM canidate. Though it was close last time, it won't be this time. Keep in mind that the Tories have every provincial seat that this federal one encompasses, Chester-St.Margarets byelection pending of course...
13 05 05 Peter Leslie
I am not quite certain why this riding is listed as too close to call. This riding encompasses a large stable population with a history of returning conservative members. Mr. Keddy is popular, partially because he is seen as moderate and partially because he has rendered good constituency service. There is simply no indication of a vote shift that would lose Mr. Keddy his seat. As a long time NDPer with no realistic chance of seeing my party win in this , I see no factors that would indicate a change in representation.
09 05 05 Jason Cherniak
Thibeault is always underestimated going into an election. He is actually quite popular and that counts for a lot in this rural riding. He will be reelected.
07 05 05 Nick Boragina
Not even close, I dont know why this is too close to call. Conservative win.
Last election, Keddy was a former PCer who wanted re-elected. this time around he's a CPCer. While that might not sound like a big difference, in a way, it is. He's proven he can win in the new party, and to some, that means alot. His margin will increase, probably in a big way. This riding is not even close in my mind. The only question I have is if the NDP will finish second.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Unlike the other two Conservative ridings, this one is somewhat vulnerable, but I still believe Gerald Keddy will likely pull it off. With the Conservatives polling above the 30% they got last time around in Atlantic Canada, it is unlikely they will lose any of the 7 seats they won last time around. I don't think Gerald Keddy's stance on same-sex marriage will make much difference since this isn't a bible belt riding, but not a socially liberal riding either so his stance will cause some conservative voters to stay home, but also pick up some liberal votes to counter that. The only thing that could harm his chances of re-election is if the budget is defeated and the tories are blamed for scuttling the Atlantic Accord, although ironically it was the Tories who pushed the hardest for the Atlantic Accord in the first place.
02 05 05 BrianJA
This is the only riding in Nova Scotia that has the potential to be won by all three major parties. I doubt Gordon Earle will run again for the NDP, so the NDP will likely not pick it up and it'll be down to the Liberal candidate and Gerald Keddy of the Conservatives. Now, Keddy has taken a stand against his own party on a few occasions, showing himself to be a man of some progressive principles. How his constituents feel about his supporting C-38 is anybody's guess, though. Still, I see Keddy holding on to his seat. With the Liberal vote in flux, I don't see any Conservative incumbents losing here. Prediction: Conservative hold by less than 1000 votes.

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