1:49 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:19 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

West Nova
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Arthur Bull
Matthew Granger
Ken Griffiths
Greg Kerr
Robert Thibault

Hon. Robert Thibault

2004 Result:
Robert Thibault
Jon Charles Carey
Edmund Arthur Bull
Matthew Granger

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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12 01 06 M.T.
The NDP would have to double their support to win it... but they'd need to do considerably less for the Conservatives to win it. If the Tories go up slightly, and the NDP takes a bunch of the Liberal vote, it could go Conservative, if only due to centre-left vote splitting. At the same time, it's possible that a good number of the Liberal voters are more centre-right than centre left.
07 01 06 M. Lunn
The NDP would have to double their support in this riding to win it, so this is just wishful thinking. Most polls show the NDP down, the Tories up and Liberals at where they were last election in Atlantic Canada. I expect Robert Thibault to win his seat again, but if he were to unexpectedly lose it, it would be to the Conservatives, not the NDP. Much like at the provincial level, their support is mostly concentrated in Halifax, not rural Nova Scotia. Rural Nova Scotia understands you get far more by having someone on the government benches than opposition benches so I am guessing this riding will probably go with the winner, who despite the current polls, I still think will be the Liberals.
04 01 06 Slick
Don't discount the NDP. In 2004 they doubled their vote. This happened while they were also losing many soft NDP votes because of the Liberal scare campaign in the last week of the campaign. This year the "scare factor" probably won't be as great, so many soft NDP votes will probably actually go NDP.
In the Acadian area of the riding NDP Candidate Arthur Bull is making inroads largely because of the support the former president of the Acadian federation - a former Thibault supporter. A drive along the Acadian shore shores a surprising number of Bull signs.
The fact that Kerr (Conservative) is a stronger candidate will probably mean the overall vote in the riding will go up, as many Conservatives who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Carey will vote for Kerr. He will not draw NDP votes...he may draw some from the many unhappy Liberals here...but most of the votes of unhappy Liberals will probably go NDP...if they vote at all.
Many recognize Thibault as a good constituency man - but more and more people are recognizing that he's been "good" only to people perceived as his friends or political allies.
The NDP seems to be running a very focused campaign this time, concentrating largely on 45 to 50 key polls where they did well in 2004 and have reason to believe they can significantly increase their support. If they get back the lost "fear" votes from 2004 and actually increase their support in those 45-50 polls, Arthur Bull could possibly win. This is a three way race.
04 01 06 Michelle
I am predicting that the NDP will do even better in this election than last time, possibly even taking the seat. In the last election, Arthur Bull doubled the NDP vote, in spite of being relatively unknown. Up till the last weekend, it was looking as if he would do even better. I think people will not fall for this again. People are tired of corrupt governments and we have a Chretien cabinet minister running for the LIberals and a Buchanan cabinet minister running for the Conservatives.
19 12 05 Steve G
This is the only Liberal seat in Atlantic Canada that the Tories have any reasonable hope of picking up, and with a well-known candidate will certainly campaign hard here. This area's generally conservative tendencies and history will help, but with the Liberals at 55% in Atlantic Canada, it would foolish to predict a Tory win in any regional seat that they do not currently hold.
19 12 05 bluenosedave
Greg Kerr's association with the Buchanan regime dooms his chances IMO. I'm sure he'll do well, in spite of this, but not enough to take the riding.
Robert's Acadian roots help him in both Clare and the Argyle municipality. The Acadian vote is going to make him very difficult to unseat by any Anglophone. If the Conservatives want to take this riding they really have to put up an Acadian candidate to at least split the vote. But they haven't.
06 12 05 Social Democrat
If the election gets a dead even nationally, I think this one will slip into the Conservative column. The Liberal is weak and the Cons have a "star" (hahahahaha... sorry) candidate with Kerr. If not a star (can I laugh again? :P) he's much stronger opponent than the last time.
05 12 05 Ex West Nova Resident
It is unbelievable to me that media pundits think Greg Kerr has a resume to take this seat. Let's see now...he was the Finance Minister in the Buchanan government. The most financially irresponsible government ever elected in the province. Under his tutelage he ran record deficits and drove the province to the brink of bankruptcy. This government including Mr. Kerr practiced a level of patronage that completely sickens Nova Scotians. Greg Kerr coming back is a nightmare. This guy is not a rocket scientist or a "star candidate"
02 12 05 M. Lunn
After seeing the detailed CRA poll, I think the lead for the Liberals is large enough that they should hold this, even though the Tories have a stronger candidate this time around. The reason for the closeness in 2000 is the Progressive Conservatives had an incumbent and incuments usually have about a 5% advantage. If Robert Thibault wins this as I expect, it will be the first time any part since World War II has held this riding three elections in a row. To date, neither the PCs or Liberals have held this three elections in a row.
27 11 05 OLIVER
Ex-Liberal- I'm not sure what makes you say that this is a naturally Conservative riding when the Liberals have won it in 4 out of the last 5 elections. The 2 reasons that they even lost it in 1997 was due to the EI cuts and Alexa being the NDP leader. Neither of these are factors now. What is a factor is Stevie Harper's big mouth insulting Atlantic Canadians. They don't forget that easily. The Liberals shouldn't worry too much about losing any Atlantic seats while Stevie leads the Conservatives.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
Robert Thibault is a weak politician in a naturally Conservative riding, who managed to keep his seat only on account of the generally disastrous performance of that party in Nova Scotia in 2004. As the Conservatives will rebound here, they will pick up this seat.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
I think Robert Thibault will be re-elected since unlike the other Rural Nova Scotia ridings, this is more a swing riding than a Conservative riding. Even provincially where the Conservatives tend to do better, they still lost the majority of provincial ridings in this area. Also unlike in 2000 where he barely won, he had the incumbency advantage last time around, which counts for a lot. However, the Conservative candidate Greg Kerr is a much stronger one than John Carey who was a defeated PC MLA, therefore it should be closer not wider as someone below stated. If the Conservatives can narrow the gap in Atlantic Canada between now and election, this is one of the few ridings in Atlantic Canada they have legitimate chance at taking.
03 07 05 Mike D
It won't even be close. Probably a 7000-8000 vote margin for Thibault. Gomery just isn't an issue in places like this. If Thibault was to be defeated, it would have happened in 2004 as he lost his special status with Chretien's retirement. Instead, both his opponents disappointed high expectations (granted, NDPer Bull gained a lot of votes). As for Harper, he has no strength in Acadia.
23 05 05 CJ
Although this will be closer than last time because of the somewhat tarnished Liberal brand and a stronger Conservative candidate, Robert Thibault is an excellent MP and his Acadian roots help him throughout the riding. Also, the Liberal budget is a good one which will play over well here. Plus, Stephen Harper's vision of Canada scares the undecided voters to the Liberals in most parts of Nova Scotia (and elsewhere). Libs hold this one- but not a gimmie like last time.
16 05 05 West Nova Liberal
My bet is on Robert Thibault to win West Nova. Elected in 2000, Robert proved himself to be a popular, capable Minister and has established himself as a solid constituency Member. In fact, he made history last year as the only incumbent to ever be re-elected for 2 consecutive terms. Liberal support remains consistent in Atlantic Canada, and I forsee very little change in the region. Atlantic Canadians simply aren't comfortable with Stephen Harper. And they like the Budget. In West Nova this election is going to be about 2 things - Thibault and the Liberal Party. I'm confident that a campaign run on the record of both will succeed.
16 05 05 CGH
This one is going to be close. It will come down to either this one, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour or South Shore-St. Margaret's for closest riding in the province. However, Thibault is a likeable guy and while not as out there as when he was a cabinet minister, I think he can still get the votes at home to secure a victory. The Tories will come very close though... very close. Maybe it'll be a tie, provide some drama.
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
I am gonna go out of the blue and call this one Tory again. This and Fredericton were the only seats in Atlantic Canada I had wrong last time (I called both for the CPC) but I think that Kerr will be a stronger candidate than Carey (a defeated PC backbencher). All the same it will be a tough fight, and provincially the Tories have almost all of this riding...except for Yarmouth. Still, Kerr in a squeeker...
15 05 05 Christopher MacCulloch
Sorry correction, I meant to say the Libs have almost all of this riding provincially, except for Yarmouth...
12 05 05 West Nova Tory
Former Nova Scotia Finance Minister Greg Kerr won the Conservative nomination for West Nova, defeating Yarmouth County Councillor Gilles Robichaud.
With a strong candidate like Kerr being confirmed to go up against Robert Thibault, I think the Tories will win this riding. Greg Kerr has the experience and the profile needed to sell the Conservative vision and win over voters in West Nova.
05 05 05 West Nova Tory
West Nova Conservatives have two candidates running for the nomination, former Nova Scotia Finance Minister Greg Kerr and Gilles Robichaud. I expect Kerr to win the nomination as he has the political experience and establishment needed to defeat Thibault.
I predict that the Conservatives will defeat Thibault and win West Nova. Thibault has been in since 2000 and the Liberals are not very popular anywhere in Canada right now, not even in the Maritimes which is a bastion of Liberal support.
04 05 05 M. Lunn
Based on the riding's history, it would suggest it would go conservative since no party has ever won this riding three elections in a row in the last fifty years. Nevertheless, the new Conservatives are more right wing than the old PCs so I think Robert Thibault could still be re-elected and this area is more liberal than the rest of Rural Nova Scotia. However, I do think that this is probably the riding the Conservatives have the best chance at picking up in Nova Scotia so expect them to run a stronger candidate this time around, which will probably make it more competitive.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Robert Thibault is an MP who isn't heard from much. He's Acadian, which endears him to the Annapolis Valley crowd quite well, but that's about it. The Conservatives realize the potential of this riding to be a pickup for them, so they have it targetted. It'll be close, but I see the Conservatives ousting Thibault and taking West Nova for themselves. Prediction: Conservative pickup by 250 or less votes.

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