Update/Mise à jour:
1:49 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:36 PM 03/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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J. Frank Comeau
Neil Gardner
Anna Girouard
Dominic LeBlanc
Omer Leger

Hon. Dominic LeBlanc

2004 Result/Résultats:
Dominic LeBlanc
Angela Vautour
Omer Bourque
Anna Girouard

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 Emmanuel Caron
Dominic Leblanc is not popular in his riding... he is widely viewed as arrogant, and he won more on the basis of his party affiliation, not to mention the lack of credible opposition. Times have changed and the Conservatives have a star candidate here who is Francophone (this counts more here than many realize), while the NDP presents an Anglophone. Combined with the Conservatives leading in opinion polls, I expect a Conservative win here, although it will be close.
09 01 06 SheepGuy
I really think this is too close to call, but the NDP always has a chance here. Vautour really messed it up by defecting from the NDP a couple of years ago, but people are tired of the Liberals, and will not vote Tory. It's a depressed area economically, with a solid NDP base.
My bet is on a very close election, with the NDP pulling of this seat.
26 12 05 td
Yeah this riding is going Liberal on Election Night, if this riding didn't go PC in the PC sweep of 1984 why would it go to either other party in an election that's this close- Liberal victory here.
13 12 05 JGL
Strange things are happening in this riding. A stealth campaign by the "old fox" Omer Leger seems to be finding a growing discontent for the incumbent. Only a fear of being on the wrong side publicly is stopping more vocal support for this undisputed underdog carrying the Conservative banner.
The name recognition and fondness for a charming blast from the past seem to be making an impression on the good people of this mostly rural riding. They seem to shy away from establishment candidates as seen by Jean Chrétien's slight margin of victory as a parachuted candidate way back when, not to mention Angela Vautour's victory as an NDP underdog.
While highly unlikely this could be a Cinderella story for a people's favourite.
08 12 05 S.R.
Je suis d'accord avec ceux qui disent que cette circonscription a une forte tradition libérale. La jeune génération peut être moins traditionnelle... La nomination d'Omer Légère, un fin renard et un ancien ministre conservateur dans le gouvernement Hatfield, pourrait brouiller les cartes. M. Légère demeure très populaire alors que la popularité de M. Leblanc pourrait être éphémère. Si à la tête du parti Conservateur il y avait un autre que Harper la lutte serait très chaude.
04 12 05
Victoire de Dominic LeBlanc! Avec une majorité très très conforatable d'envrion 12 000 voix , les électeurs on depuis 2000 toujours élu monsieur LeBlanc avec une très bonne majorité, ils sont dans l'ensemble satisfait de son travail et en plus monsieur LeBlanc serait ministrable. Chez les conservateurs ils n'ont trouver aucun candidat pour ce comté, donc cela part bien mal pour eux.
22 06 05 Bear and Ape
While we don't share some of the other's posters enthusiasm (we do not agree with Nick that this is more Liberal than Mount Royal, or agree with SAB that if the Liberals were decimated that this would stay Liberal) we do have to agree that this is relatively safe and the 97 result was an anomaly. An upset by another party is possible, but Dominic need not lose any sleep over it.
22 05 05 SAB
Beausejour is to the Liberals what Fundy Royal is to the Conservatives - SAFE SEAT. LeBlanc will easily hold this riding as long as he wants to - even if the Liberals were decimated in the next election, he would be one of few left standing.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a very safe liberal riding. Even during the 1984 Tory sweep, the liberals still managed to hold this one. 1997 was an anomaly since the NDP won this due to the EI changes, but the next election only got 8% of the popular vote. Dominic Leblanc will be going back to Ottawa regardless of how well the liberals do nationally.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
I voted in this riding last year. In 1997, due to unpopularity of the Liberals in the atlantic, this riding elected a New Democrat my a very small margin. It was literally the only time since 1867 that Kent County (a major part of this riding) was represented federally by anyone but a Liberal. This is more Liberal then Mount Royal (which has only voted Liberal since 1935) or Labrador (since 1949) or PEI as a province (since 1993). While it was the current MP who was defeated in 1997, I dont see him losing again. This should be another easy win.

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