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3:51 PM 20/01/2006

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9:26 AM 22/01/2006
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2006 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Michel Champagne
Progressive Canadian
Heward Grafftey
Josianne Jetté
David Marler
Bloc Québécois
Christian Ouellet
Denis Paradis

L'Hon. Denis Paradis

2004 Résultats:
Denis Paradis
Christian Ouellet
Peter Stastny
Louise Martineau
Piper Huggins

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

17 01 06 Victor A.
As expected the BQ is leading in this riding and is very likely to pick it up. According to the new CROP-La Presse poll BQ is leading with 37 % of the votes for their candidate Christian Ouelett while the Liberal Party is second with its popular incumbent Denis Paradis at 29 %, Conservatives have the support of 21 % of the votes. The CROP survey didn't include the Progressive-Canadian candidate as a choice who will (imo) also get a pretty good result.
17 01 06 JFB
Ici, je suis très surpris par le résultat de ce sondage. Sondage CROP-La Presse du 17 janvier 2006 pour le comté de Brome-Missisquoi: Bloc 31%, Libéral 24%, Conservateur 17%, NPD 5%. Il faut considérer l'avance du Bloc par la division du vote entre Libéraux et Conservateurs. Le Bloc va se faufiler entre deux partis fédéralistes. Victoire du Bloc.
17 01 06 M. Moreau
Dans La Presse ce matin, le sondage CROP (avec un marge d'erreur de 6 points) trouve que les Bloquistes sont en avance: Christian Ouellet 39%, Denis Paradis 29%. Les Conservateurs n'ont que 11%.
14 01 06 Last Chance Charlie
I was at an all candidates' debate on Jan. 12 where the leader of the Progressive Canadian Party, Tracy Parsons, participated. This was in the Carleton-Mississippi Mills riding, in the west part of Ottawa, where Ms. Parsons is running.
She claimed at that time that Heward Grafftey was leading in PCP polling in Brome-Missisquoi.
This came as part of a question about why we should vote for third party candidates, and she didn't elaborate on it.
Unless she's flat out lying -- and she didn't strike me as making it up -- this riding may surprise us. Even if Grafftey doesn't win, a good showing by him could spoil the race for any of the major candidates, depending on whose vote he eats into.
13 01 06 j_mc
Time has come for the Bloc to take this riding. Again, the federalist vote will be split between the Liberals, Conservatives and still popular former MP Heward Graftey, who runs for the Canadian Progressive Party.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
Bloc, surely. Green vote is high here which I always take as an indicator that there are federal votes swinging around. This means more will shift and likely away from the Liberals.
Speaking of experience factor, this is a rematch, and a rematch should favour the Bloc simply because the candidate has heard all objections to voting Bloc, and has good answers for them already.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Bloc, surely. Green vote is high here which I always take as an indicator that there are federal votes swinging around. This means more will shift and likely away from the Liberals. Don't forget the swing factor back to the NDP as the more experienced Layton specifically asks for them back.
Speaking of experience factor, this is a rematch, and a rematch should favour the Bloc simply because the candidate has heard all objections to voting Bloc, and has good answers for them already.
10 01 06 Full Name
Libéral, mais par la peau des fesses! Paradis est bien aimé dans tout le comté (sauf peut-être à Magog où on le voit jamais!) et c'est ça qui va le <>. C'est un des rares comté à l'extérieur de Montréal qui va encore résister à la vague bloquiste.
07 01 06 Stéphane Gaudet
Too close to call. Tout dépend des conservateurs. S'ils enlèvent suffisamment de votes à Monsieur Paradis, le Bloc peut gagner sur division du vote comme en 1993. Mais si le vote libéral résiste, vu la popularité du député sortant et compte tenu que les électeurs fédéralistes savent bien que la division du vote fera élire un bloquiste, Brome-Missisquoi demeurera libéral. Grafftey ? Pas sûr qu'il soit assez fort pour brouiller les cartes, mais s'il le fait, ça aidera encore plus le Bloc.
04 01 06 Victor A.
This riding will definitely go to the Bloc. Not only BQ's support has increased by 1.5 to 3 % in the province ( since the last election ) but we also have a very respected Progressive-Canadian candidate, Grafftey who will certainly get the best Progressive-Canadian result in the country ( by far ) at a level higher than the Conservative Party candidate last time around. Grafftey is looking at getting 5 to 7 % of the vote given his excellent reputation and community involvment, the vote will come mostly from the Liberals. I'm positive BQ won't miss such a chance.
23 12 05 Brain Trust
I have to laugh at the thought of Heward winning this riding. I would bet that he won't even really take enough votes away from the Libs to swing this to the Bloc.
What I do think is that this will go Bloc because of the dreadful fortunates of the Libs in Quebec & that they have written this riding off as "fringe-winnable". This, combined with the extensive Bloc effort here will translate into a flip.
19 12 05 Travis Chase
I predict that Heward Grafftey will win this riding if his health keeps up, It will be a photo finish. Grafftey has name recognition and campaign experience, and the Progressive Canadian party is not a traditional fringe party. Look for him to be a popular federalist Alternative without people having to vote for the Liberals, the Conservatives don't have any play and minimal resources. Grafftey would play well with a Conservative or Liberal Minority and could end up holding the balance of power in critical votes.
Quebec has a history of trying out different non-traditional parties, such as Ralliement Créditiste / Social Credit, Labour Progressive, Bloc populaire canadien and of course Bloc Québécois, so ruling Grafftey out because he is with a fringe party is baseless.
Look for this to be a Progressive Canadian pick up.
14 12 05 Liberty Canada
Don't look now, but the predictions made by some here of a Heward Grafftey comeback, may have some merit.
Grafftey, running for the Progressive Canadian Party is said, according to Mike Cohen's column in the Sububan (Dec. 14) to be polling ahead of the Liberals and closing in on the Bloc.
10 12 05 Patrick
Grafftey is a strong candidate, and his 3rd place finish in 2000 was mainly because he was injured.. he is campaigning HEAVILY, and he will suck a big portion of the liberal vote, as well as the people who vote bloc in protest.. as well many of his 2000 supporters are now supporters of the new conservative party and will be back to help him out now. I see Heward Grafftey winning this riding.. it will be hilarious... but it will happen.
07 12 05 JT
With all due respect Howard Grafftey is a non-factor here. Quebec is a battleground between the Liberals and Bloc. Unless the Liberals rise in the polls here really soon which is unlikely Mr. Paradis will be defeated as he narrowly won in 2004.
07 12 05 JFB
Brome-Missisquoi, dans les circonstances actuelles, m'a fait longtemps hésiter entre une victoire du Bloc et une victoire libérale. Plus maintenant, avec les déclarations du candidat bloquiste, rabroué par son chef. Paradis, député apprécié, en travaillant avec ardeur, conservera son siège. Victoire PLC.
03 12 05
Victoire de l'actuel député Denis Paradis. Depuis 1995 que monsieur Paradis est député de ce comté , en plus il fort populaire et monsieur Paradis fait actuellement un très bon travail. Finalement monsieur Paradis serait ministrable. Il va l'emporter avec 1500 voix MINIMUM.
29 11 05
Brome Misisquoi, Heward Grafftey notwithstanding is going to stay Liberal. The Paradis brothers are almost an institution here. The only time a Bloquiste ever won here was in 1993 when the Liberals parachuted Joan Kouri into the riding, and the Conservative party still have some strength in this riding which had always been the lone PC seat in QC under Hew Grafftey.
I've met Mr. Grafftey, and he is a very nice man. Quite genuine, and I can see why he won for so long. It would be very interesting if he did win, but as MLunn pointed out , fringe parties have a really rough go of it. His name will only take him so far, especially in an election where the stakes are so high, and the need to keep the Bloc from taking more territory is urgent.
My perception is that the Conservative party is for the most part starting in a much weaker position than in 2004, so i can see Paradis winning with an even bigger margin this time.
25 11 05 Mark
Don't write off Heward Grafftey and the Progressive Canadian Party - I'm not sure there's anyone anywhere who doesn't like the man. He has won his seat no less than seven times, in addition to having been a minister. His strong opposition to the Alliance-PC merger and the Iraq war are in step with Quebec public opinion. He finished third in 2000 because an injury prevented him from actively campaigning, but his insistence on running as a Progressive Conservative/Progressive Canadian will resonate particularly well in this riding and the Eastern Townships. Watch for him to sneak up the middle, attracting both would-be Liberals fed up with the scandals and would-be Bloc supporters who have voted PC in the past.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
With the liberals having made a partial re-bound, Denis Paradis may still hold his seat since he is reasonably popular and this is a somewhat federalist area, but I would still give the Bloc Quebecois the edge. As for Hewert Grafftey running for the Progressive Canadian Party, it likely won't make much difference since under the first past the post system, people usually vote for parties they think have a chance at winning not for fringe parties that have no chance at winning any seats. Besides he was not just a critic of the merger, but he also opposed free trade and endorsed David Orchard for leader both times around so Hewert Grafftey was pretty much an outsider to the Progressive Conservatives after Mulroney became leader. There were still a few old style red tories left when the two parties merged, but the newer generation with similar views largely were liberals or NDP supporters.
06 06 05 Grant
No, no, no. Heward Grafftey is running for the Progressive CANADIAN party, not the Tories. Be a lark if the old bugger won. I always like the quixotic nature of him being the only Tory in Quebec constantly turning down Liberal patronage offers...deja vu anyone?
Anyway, Paradis is a strong candidate, and he held the riding with healthy pluralities (3300 - 8000)until last year, when it was cut to less than 1100.
The Bloc took this riding in '93 by a slim majority and the party has been polling higher than its 2004 results. The Grits have their federalist voting base being eroded by increased NDP & Tory support. And Gomery has traction here, unlike the rest of the country.
Duceppe leaving and the prospect of an election later rather than soon will help Liberal chances, but this is the Bloc's for the taking unless something drastic happens...
...or Grafftey-mania grips the land.
28 05 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
Écart d'a peine 1000 votes en 2004. Scandale des commanidtes et un conservateur bien connu qui ira gruger (ex député de 1958 à 1980) des votes aux libéraux. En 1993 ce comté a été au Bloc et il en sera ainsi en 2005. C,est un des seuls comté que le Bloc va avoir de plus avec Anstic(Montréal Nord) et Jeanne le Ber.
26 05 05 Neal
Nick, I knew something had to be wrong with the Hew Grafftey story. Mr. Grafftey has been long time and extremely bitter opponent of the merger.
However, he did announce his intention to run in this election, but he will be representing the Progressive Canadian Party. The Progressive Canadian Party shows on the ballot as PC party. the founders which included Sinc Stevens, David Orchard Joe hueglin and others see themselves as the continuation of the Progressive Conservative Party, and are trying to regain the right to the name by legal means. They have adopted the old PC party constitution and policy platform word for word.
Needless to say, they won't be a factor in this riding, this election, Grafftey or no Grafftey.
17 05 05 Neal
Nick, are you serious??
Grafftey running for the Tories? Wasn't he the single harshest critic of the merger after the Wrong Hon. Charles Joseph Clark????
Then again the "flip flop" is the official footgear of politicians, is it not?
I have met Mr Grfftey and he is a very nice man, but has absolutely no chance of winning. His getting into the race has just increased M. Paradis' chances. Word is Denis' brother Pierre may be considering another bid to lead the Quebec Liberals, so he will do what he can to get his bro. re-elected. To have his riding fall to the Bloc won't bode well for his leadership ambitions.
Possibly the only Liberal hold off the Island.
12 05 05 Nick Boragina
Hugh Grafftey, longtime Progressive Conservative Member of Parliament, and Parliamentary Secretary (cabinet minister too?) is running here for the Progressive Conservative Party. Unfortunatly for him and Paradis, it does not change the fact that the Bloc will win here simpally due to Gomery.
03 05 05 Paul
Denis Paradis is very popular in his riding.
Unless there is a total Liberal meltdown in Quebec, the Liberals will keep this seat. It will be close enough, but it will stay Liberal.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
The Eastern Townships tend to be more federalist than other areas outside Montreal, nevertheless expect Denis Paradis to lose his riding this time. The Conservatives will likely do better, but are still too weak in Quebec to win this riding or many others. With the liberals in free-fall there is no way they will hold a riding they barely won in 2004.
26 04 05 Neal
Unless there is a wholesale rejection of the Liberals, and a move of most of the federalist vote to the Conservatives which is possible in Brome, This one will be a Bloc gain in the event of a Federalist split.

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