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3:53 PM 20/01/2006

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10:41 PM 22/01/2006
Projet D'Élection Prévision

Jeanne-Le Ber
2006 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Pierre-Olivier Brunelle
Liza Frulla
Claude William Genest
Matthew McLauchlin
Bloc Québécois
Thierry St-Cyr

L'Hon. Liza Frulla

2004 Résultats:
Liza Frulla
Thierry St-Cyr
Anthony Philbin
Pierre-Albert Sévigny
Jean Claude Mercier
Cathy Duchesne
Normand Chouinard

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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18 01 06 01/02/2003
A local poll by CROP-La Presse shows the Bloc challenger ahead with 31 % while incumbent Lisa Frulla gets 30 % of the vote. The CPC gets 11 %, the NDP 10 % and the Greens 8 %. The close race in 2004 should give at first glance an advantage to the Bloc, this being said people there are being called at 2 AM in the middle of the night and asked to support the Liberal Party, which is strongly rumoured to be part of a Richard Nixon/Paul Desrochers-style Bloc tactic. This may or may not backfire for the Bloc. Since the poll has a relatively high error margin, I suspect the margin of error favoured the Liberals here and I still expect the Bloc to win there.
17 01 06 Victor A.
Surprise, surprise Liza Frulla might still be able to hold onto this one, dare I say against all odds. According to the new CROP survey conducted between 11th and 14th of January Frulla is just one point behind Thierry St-Cyr ( Bloc Québécois ). ( 33 % and 34 % respectively ) Conservative Party and the NDP candidates have 12 % of support each. I think what might save Liza is a relatively weak BQ canaidate, one of the closest ridings on election night.
17 01 06 JFB
Lutte très serrée dans Jeanne-Le Ber... Sondage CROP-La Presse du 17 janvier 2006 pour le comté de Jeanne-Le-Ber: Bloc 31%, Libéral 30%, Conservateur 11%, NPD 10%. Victoire à l'arrachée du Bloc, si les Libéraux poursuivent leur dégringolade et que les Conservateurs se maintiennent.
17 01 06 M. Moreau
Dans La Presse ce matin, le sondage CROP (avec un marge d'erreur de 6 points) troube que Jeanne-Le Ber est très serrée: Thierry St-Cyr 34%, Lisa Fulla 33%. Le NPD et the PC n'ont que 23%, ensemble. Bonne chance à prédir cette circonscription!
15 01 06 Victor A.
I believe the Bloc will win it despite having a less than stellar candidate in this riding. Unlike, in the riding of Papineau, the number of people that voted Liberal in the advance polls seems to be lower. The Liberal Party could have won it or at least make a big deal with the embarrassing "spaghetti" comments by St-Cyr, but guess what nothing happened whatsoever. What were the Liberal strategists thinking? it could have made a major impact had this been given more ( media ) attention and save Frulla but unfortunately for the Liberals, they either didn't pick it up or didn't think of it. I really think St-Cyr is getting a free pass to Ottawa, especially now that the federalist vote is more divided.
13 01 06
In a riding that was this close last time, I can't see how Frulla can hold this seat for the Liberals in the face of a national and Quebec downturn in the party's vote. While she is certainly high-profile, she isn't universally loved in the riding, and she is facing a very energetic candidate who learned a lot of lessons from his last campaign (spaghetti comment goof aside). Clearly the Liberals will be doing everything they can to turn out all of their supporters, but it is pretty hard to get voters excited about trudging out in the cold to vote for Paul Martin's Liberal campaign these days - and besides, they've got a good half-dozen seats on the island they need to be fighting hard to defend from Bloc assaults -- the party's resources won't stretch that far in this environment, and Frulla will be a lower priority than Pettigrew and LaPierre. St-Cyr will edge out Frulla.
10 01 05 El Suavé
Yep...no question..Frulla's a goner here. She managed a real squeaker here last time (by less than 100 votes) over the bloc, but, this time, despite her vociferations, the Bloc is gonna grab this one. This election has seen the worst liberal campaign in recent memory, the cons are up in Quebec (perfect to split the nationalist vote and hand over riding after riding to the stable bloc vote), and McLaughlin is an able NDP campaigner. Poor Grits...they will almost be completely wiped out of Quebec.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
Given the 2004 win was by under 100 votes, and it's a rematch, Bloc. Do not discount the ability of a young candidate to learn. Also being young has the advantage of being able to get NDP and Green votes to consider voting for you. And Thierry St-Cyr has spent two years working on the riding while Frulla's been in Ottawa. The relatively high Green vote is a clue that some of those votes, typically from younger people, might well be vulnerable. Conservative and NDP will benefit some from Liberal losses as well.
Two more edges of a young candidate and younger support base in this election:
- this is the first election in which mastery of the Internet is mandatory
- January 23 is a date likely to live in infamy for the weather, but that won't bother the young nearly as much as the older Liberal voters
10 01 05 quasar
At the moment, Liberal numbers in Quebec are lower than the Conservatives. If this trend holds, Liza Frulla will not only lose her seat, but she could be pushed to third place behind Pierre-Olivier Brunelle. However, even witout Tory fortunes rising in Quebec, I'd have claled this Bloc anyway. Frulla only won by about 72 votes, and with anger about Liberal corruption just at its height, I'd call this one for the Bloc.
10 01 05 Sébastien Ayotte
Liza Frulla a presque trébuché à son entrée en scène en 2004. Je ne vois pas comment les électeurs pourraient lui avoir trouvé de nouvelles qualités depuis ce temps !
Sans compter que le PLC est loin d'avoir fait le plein d'appuis au niveau national depuis juin 04...
Victoire du BQ par 2000 voix.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Given the 2004 win was by under 100 votes, and it's a rematch, Bloc. Do not discount the ability of a young candidate to learn. Also being young has the advantage of being able to get NDP and Green votes to consider voting for you. And Thierry St-Cyr has spent two years working on the riding while Frulla's been in Ottawa. The relatively high Green vote is a clue that some of those votes, typically from younger people, might well be vulnerable. Conservative and NDP will benefit some from Liberal losses as well.
04 01 06 Stéphane
La très mince majorité obtenue par Mme Frulla aux dernières élections laisse entrevoir la possibilité d'une victoire du Bloc. Cependant, Mme Frulla est une personnalité publique très appréciée au Québec. Ironiquement, sa prochaine réélection pourrait ne dépendre que du succès de sa recette de sauce à spaghetti...Celle-ci semble toutefois très appétissante. Avantage libéraux, mais très, TRÈS mince.
02 01 06 love, sydney
Looking more and more like a Bloc win, helped by some comments that Frulla may want to consult a lawyer about. The Bloc is not above playing dirty politics and while I don't see them winning many more seats than last time, I do see them taking out a few names along the way.
23 12 05 David M.
I'm not sure how things are going to play out elsewhere, but I think that Frulla will lose very narrowly. I say this without having been to her riding, but with the knowledge that the Liberals are funneling a lot of their folks over to help out on her campaign (both the Concordia and McGill Liberal clubs are getting their folks to work for her). Moreover, think that a lot of the people who voted conservative last time, and a lot of the people who stayed home last time, will actually come out and vote Liberal this time (lately I'm hearing a lot of people say make these kinds of noises). That said, the Bloc's vote share in Jeanne-Le Ber should increase.
15 12 05 William Smith
The Bloc is likely to win this riding. The Liberals won by only 72 votes in the last election, even before the serious negative effect of the Ad Scandal being played in the media every night. Despite being a high-profile cabinet minister and a popular former media figure, Lize Frulla will not win this one unless Conservative federalist voters swing their support her way. Sadly, Quebec Conservatives are famously spiteful and would sooner vote for a separatist then a Liberal; the inexperienced, unremarkable, 26-year-old Bloc candidate will probably carry this one away.
10 12 05 David Pagé
Marie Grégoire, candidate adéquiste défaite dans Berthier en 2003 saurait vous dire qu'apparaître trop sur les écrans des gens ça enlève du temps pour mettre des votes dans les urnes. Malheureusement pour Mme Frulla même elle ne pourra résister à la vague. Soit M. St-Cyr ne gagnera pas par 10 000 votes mais un bon travail de son équipe électorale pourra cette fois-ci lui donner la majorité nécessaire. Peut-être Mme Frulla pourra-t-elle retourner à Radio-Canada?
03 12 05 CD
Liza Frulla will win. She was a high-profile minister for the past 18 months, which will help her. Also, now that everyone knows this is a close seat (which nobody was predicting in 2004), expect the federalist vote not to split nearly so much.
01 12 05 SG
Victoire Libéral dans ce comté. Avec une majorité fort serré entre les Libéraux et le Bloc Québécois. Madame Frulla a été souvent présente à des émissions télévisée et elle a bien paru alors celui donne un certain avantage.Surment que les fédéralistes de ce comté vont sortir en grand nombre afin garder ce comté aux fédéralistes et ceux qui ont voté NPD vont avoir peur d'avoir un député souvrainistes alors il vont voter Libéral et même chez les conservateurs.Donc si la moitié des électeurs NPD votent pour les Libéraux sa fait 1500 votent supplémentaire et 1250 vote conservateurs supplémentaire aux Libéraux, pour un total d'environ 2750 votent pour Madame Frulla.
29 11 05 PPF
Le Bloc va gagné cette fois-ci. Plusieurs électeurs favorables au Bloc n'y ont pas trop cru la dernière fois. Le pourcentage de participation dans la circonscription la dernière fois était 10% inférieur à la moyenne. Cette fois-ci les gens se déplaceront puisqu'ils croient que Liza peut se faire battre
21 11 05 Liberty Canada
The Bloc should stop salivating over this too soon, Frulla got the scare of a lifetime last year, and it won't be allowed to happen again.
There will be a Get out the Federalist Vote campaign like no other. the mesaage will be that you had your protest vote last time, and this time you can't afford one.
Frulla will win by at least 1000 this time.
16 11 05 JFB
Avec l'impopularité actuelle des Libéraux au Québec et les scores du Bloc dans les sondages, Jeanne-LeBer est le premier comté qui passera au Bloc. La courte, très courte majorité de Liza Frulla ne résistera pas. Il ne faut pas non plus négliger les facteurs socio-politiques inhérents à l'île de Montréal. Par exemple, lors des élections québécoises de 2003, la sortie de vote sympathisant péquiste a été la même que lors du référendum (plus de 90%) dans de nombreux comtés, même si le PQ a perdu les élections. Sur l'île de Montréal, la polarité des votes (anglo / franco - fédéraliste / souverainiste) est importante, beaucoup plus qu'ailleurs. Jeanne-LeBer est fortement francophone. Dans le contexte post-Gomery, victoire du Bloc.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
A working class, largely French-speaking riding that though is not staunchly seperatist, will vote for them when disgusted by the alternative. the 2004 vote should be the writting on the wall.
17 05 05 Steven
The Bloc will be the party to gain the most from any election. The BQ lost by 0.2% in the last election, it stands to reason that with their growing support they'll take out another Cabinet minister and the clout of the Bloc will grow.
15 05 05 sam
Liza Frulla a eu une mechante lecons lors des élections
de 2004, et laissez moi vous dire quelle est de plus en plus
presentre pour garder son siège! En plus elle à bonne équioe
et est vue comme une des têtes d'affiches les plus populaire
du PLC au Quebec!
03 05 05 benjerry
Liza Frulla est réellement en danger dans ce comté. Malgré le score décevant pour le PLC dans ce comté, je ne suis pas convaincu d'une victoire imminente du Bloc dans Jeanne-Leber. Soyez assusés que le PLC mettra toute sa machine dans ce comté pour "faire sortir le vote". La dernière élection a mis en lumière l'incapacité des libéraux de faire sortir leur vote habituel. Les gens, plutôt que d'appuyer le Bloc, sont tout simplement restés à la maison.
Mais il est clair que Liza devra se concentrer d'abord et avant tout dans son comté et que le PLC a avantage à s'assurer que Liza Frulla fasse un maximum d'intervention publique à la télé et la radio nationale.
Pour l'instant, la logique me dicterait de prédire une victoire bloquiste mais il ne faut pas compter Liza pour battu.
03 05 05 David Pagé
Malheureusement pour elle, Mme Frula devra bientôt aller pointer au chômage. Jeanne-Le-Ber sera, j'en suis certain, le premier comté libéral à passer au Bloc le soir des élections. La de plus en plus francophone Verdun ainsi que la grogne des Québécois face au gouvernement libéral et au scandale des commandites feront tomber même cette vedette. Bonne chance la prochaine pour cette gentille dame.
05 05 05 Initial
La victoire de Liza Frulla fut très serrée la dernière fois... elle sera la première à perdre son comté aux mains du Bloc Québécois.
07 05 05 Full Name
Madame Frulla is finished in federal politics after this federal election. While her Nationalist direction of the Heritage Department may have been enough last election to win her seat the Sponsorship scandal will hit too close to home.
Her chief of staff who she hand picked is on suspension with pay because he has been implicated as being involved in Gomery. Another stupid move on her part involved an ad that her office took out in the newspaper after she became Heritage Minister that informed constiuents that she was too busy now as Heritage Minister to deal with their problems but her staff would be happy to help in her place.
Add these two examples (amongst a list of a whole lot more...) to the narrowest margin last time, this seat should be an easy pickup for the Bloc.
07 05 05 Aric H
Some people assume that every seat the Liberals nearly didn't win last year they will lose this year. That may happen, but it isn't certain. The Liberals didn't do as badly as they were predicted to do last year, and something similar could happen this year. Having said that, I will say that until Liberal numbers stabalize in Quebec the Bloc will probably take this seat since it was so close last time and had to go into a recount. Even though Liza Frulla has been Heritage Minister and has had some profile from that and has tried to give Quebec some exposure internationally as well, I am not sure if it will be enough.
07 05 05 Robert A. Daniel
Liza Fruitcake only won this riding by 72 lousy votes last time, if the prior post is correct. Does anything else really need be said? This is Quebec in the after-math of Adscam, not Pierre Trudeau's romp in 1980. This project has already called Liberal defeats in many other ridings where the Liberal margin was much bigger last time around. Jeanne- Le Ber should be a Bloc prediction too.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Liz Frulla only won by 72 votes last time around. With liberal fortunes declining in Quebec, Liz Frulla needs to dust off her resume since she will be out of work come the next election.
26 04 05 Neal
This time, Frulla will go down. No more Adscam money to help her squeak by with a 35 vote plurality.

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