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3:54 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
12:04 AM 03/05/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Lac-Saint-Louis
2006 - élection générale (Canada)



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Green/Vert
Peter Graham
Bloc Québécois
Anne-Marie Guertin
Conservative/conservateur
Andrea Paine
NDP/NPD
Daniel Quinn
Libearl/libéral
Francis Scarpaleggia

Député:
Francis Scarpaleggia

2004 Résultats:
Francis Scarpaleggia
32122
Jeff Howard
6082
Maxime Côté
5106
Daniel Quinn
3789
Peter Graham
2584
Patrick Cardinal
578

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

19 01 06 Bear and Ape
What people here fail to realise is that during the Mulroney years there was no federal separatist party that could potentially split the vote and come up the middle. As silly as this sounds to us, who are a little more aware of the numbers, facts and particular nuances of most ridings, Mr and Mrs Jones in Kirkland are generally unaware of this and will vote for the devil they know in the Liberals, lest a separatist slip up the middle. Bear has heard this silliness from his own family members, imagine what's going through the minds of those who do not have a electionprediction wannabe-pundit in their family. Voters will be much more cautious this time and (probably) more CPC comfortable in subsequent elections.
18 01 06 01/02/2003
The Conservative Party is indeed heavily targeting this seat, and they believe they will steal it from the Liberal Party, but I don't buy that, in my humble opinion they picked the wrong West Island riding. Liberal incumbent Francis Scarpaleggia is extremely popular there as he is viewed as "Clifford Lincoln Jr.". While the race is closer this time, and many who always voted Liberal are switching to the Conservatives, Scarpaleggia is strongly in favour of traditional marriage and Conservative Andrea Paine doesn't want to talk about this issue (and is therefore widely suspected of being a closeted supporter of homosexual marriage), and while most voters don't care or even know about this, those who do care are totally opposed to homosexual marriage and are fully aware of this, and as a result they are supporting Scarpaleggia, especially since the Bloc has no chance whatsoever of sneaking in. This will help him keep the riding. Expect a Liberal win here, with a margin of about 10 % over the Conservative challenger. (This being said, I would not be surprised if Scarpaleggia, once re-elected, would decide to cross the floor to join the Conservative Party, so even if the riding stays Liberal this might not last.)
11 01 05 Aric H
While it is true that the Conservatives appear to be going up in Quebec in a big way for the first time, I don't think they will win back the West Island seats they used to have at this point in time. The Liberal Party is still very well established here as are most of the incumbent Liberal MP's.
Trivia note: The Conservative MP who had this riding during the Mulroney years was Jack Layton's father!
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
Get real. ALL the other parties could DOUBLE their vote and the Liberals would STILL win. A Conservative could only win in this riding by picking up oh say the 2004 Green platform (that included tax cuts and other stuff Conservatives should like) and try to pretend to be Green. That might get ALL the Green and NDP votes but in addition to that the Liberal vote would still have to cut in half. It's just insane to call this anything but for Liberals.
10 01 05 Liberty Canada
Mr Amundsen, I have explained in my previous post why I think that Lac St Louis will be the one Montreal island riding to go blue. read up on Andrea. The party would not be making the investment they have if they didn't think she had an excellent chance. Don't forget this is the former seat of Bob Layton, who won it after many years of Liberal Rod Blaker making off with huge pluralities. In a Tory surge, it could be done.
10 01 05 M. Lunn
Okay - lets stop these silly Tory predictions in West Montreal. It is true the Tories have been gaining in Quebec, but gains are most likely in Quebec City and Eastern Townships where they were the strongest last time around. West Montreal is solid Liberal and will stay Liberal. The Liberals got over 60% last time around and the Tories only 12%, so there is no way shift that big can occur unless we have a 1993 type disaster for the Liberals. This did go PC in 1984 and 1988, but Mulroney pretty much swept Quebec and he was from Quebec, whereas Harper not being from Quebec and being a little too right wing for Quebec is not likely to pick up more than 3 seats in Quebec.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Get real. ALL the other parties could DOUBLE their vote and the Liberals would STILL win. A Conservative could only win in this riding by picking up oh say the 2004 Green platform (that included tax cuts and other stuff Conservatives should like) and try to pretend to be Green. That might get ALL the Green and NDP votes but in addition to that the Liberal vote would still have to cut in half. It's just insane to call this anything but for Liberals.
08 01 06 M. Lunn
Okay - lets stop these silly Tory predictions in West Montreal. It is true the Tories have been gaining in Quebec, but gains are most likely in Quebec City and Eastern Townships where they were the strongest last time around. West Montreal is solid Liberal and will stay Liberal. The Liberals got over 60% last time around and the Tories only 12%, so there is no way shift that big can occur unless we have a 1993 type disaster for the Liberals. This did go PC in 1984 and 1988, but Mulroney pretty much swept Quebec and he was from Quebec, whereas Harper not being from Quebec and being a little too right wing for Quebec is not likely to pick up more than 3 seats in Quebec.
06 01 06 Liberty Canada
The Conservatives are eying this one now. At the last minute, Andrea Paine, who had been nominated for Pierrefonds Dollard (& candidate of record for the last vote) was switched over to Lac St. Louis. The Conservatives believe that the riding is winnable in the event of the momentum switcching to the Tories, as it apparently has.
They are throwing a full court press into winning this one for the administrative assistant for House leader jay Hill. Sen. David Angus has even loaned his credibility to this campaign as Hon. Campaign chairman,
It is believed that Francis Scarpelleggia does not have the full support of the local Lib riding association who were loyal to Clifford Lincoln.
She has a full campaign team behind her as well, including most of the Pierrefonds-Dollard and vaudreuil-Soulanges Conservative associations.
We don't do lawn signs very much in Quebec, so it's hard to gauge support that way, however, she has matched Scarp sign-for sign insofar as Coroplasts go, (and hers are twice as big) and has also plastered the area with pole signs, which Scarp has not done.
If one is also to take local talk sjows into account, Lac St. Louis will be at the very least, a riding to watch on Jan 23d. Provided Tory momentum holds.
29 11 05
Victoire du Parti Libéral sans aucun doute. Ce comté a voter liberal en premier et en deuxième conservateur alors victoire libéral assurée! Le bloc est en dehors de la course dans ce comté!
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
This riding is heavily Liberal but it is first and foremost federalist. If the Conservatives look like they will become the government they will compete seriously here, but at this point it is not the case so I expect the Liberals to keep this seat.
22 05 05
Lac-Saint-Louis is a Liberal strong hold; an impenetrable federal fortress. Perhaps the safest seat they have in Quebec.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
West Island, absolutly no way what so ever that the BQ can win this riding. The Conservatives are too socially conservative for anywhere in the greater Montreal region let alone here (if they were fiscal conservatives like Belinda, then maybe...big maybe...).
05 05 05 Initial
Un des rares comtés sûrs pour le parti libéral au Québec, mais le parti libéral perdra encore quelques votes... qui iront pour les conservateurs, le NPD et le Bloc... Le parti libéral passera quand même avec minimum 52 % des voix
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is West Montreal where the liberals no matter how unpopular in Quebec always win. The Tories won this in the 80s, but they were a federalist party. The large Anglophone population will stick with the liberals even if they only get 10% amongst Francophone voters elsewhere. Francis Scarpeleggia will be re-elected, although likely with less than 60% this time around.
26 04 05
This one should be a slam dunk for the Liberals, but there have been rumours about Francis Scarpelleggia's loyalty to the party on account of the same sex mariage issue, which he opposes. This one is remotely winnable for the Tories if they get the right candidate, and if Scarp does defect.....



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