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3:54 PM 20/01/2006

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12:08 AM 03/05/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2006 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Georges-Alexandre Bastien
Jean-Paul Bédard
Serge Bellemare
Bloc Québécois
May Chiu
Russ Johnson
Jean-Philippe Lebleu
Paul Martin

Rt. Hon. Paul Martin

2004 Résultats:
Paul Martin
Thierry Larrivée
Nicole Roy-Arcelin
Rebecca Blaikie
Douglas Jack
Marc-Boris St-Maurice
Jean-Paul Bédard

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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18 01 06 01/02/2003
This riding is considered in play since Gilles Duceppe visited it recently and claimed publicly it was a three-way race (with the Conservatives in third place), but I suspect this is part of the b..., sorry, campaign pep talk, that politicians may use to try to influence voters. Paul Martin will win again, but it is true that the local Bloc candidate is leading a strong campaign and as a result the race is somewhat closer than usual. Expect a Liberal win by a margin of about 10 %.
17 01 06 PPF
This will be closer than you think! No hes not kim Kampbell and no its not Vancouver centre. However, May Chiu mobilized chinese community in that area around the immigration surtaxe. Also, liberals are already trying to find another leader... Bad news for Paul Martin...
16 01 06 M.T.
I still don't really think the Bloc will win, I suppose, but still, hear me out: A previous poster said that Martin wouldn't lose his seat unless the Liberals came into the 20% range. But, the Liberals are down to 15% in Quebec according to most polls. Higher in Montreal. But if Montreal's safe, why was Martin there the other day? Why not in some other part of Quebec where the Liberals are doing more badly? Is it because they've given up hope of those, and are now concerned for Montreal? The second part of this is that many Liberals have given up hope of winning government and would like to see Martin replaced as quickly as possible so the party can regroup, and be ready for an election as soon as possible. Therefore, the dynamic here has shifted. People will not be voting to give the Prime Minister his seat in a hard faught minority government; they will be voting for an opposition MP. Even in his old stronghold, many Quebeckers may decide that Martin has had his chance, and should be booted. Finally, the Bloc candidate has gotten a lot of media attention lately - fairly positive too. She's not a traditional separatist style candidate. She's supposed to be giving birth on election day. A lot of people will contrast that with the very negative image of the Prime Minister they've been seeing lately, and decide to give Chiu the win. Anyway, the Liberal vote will be down, the Bloc and Tory vote will be up. (And, if the Bloc does win, it saves the trouble of a by-election later in the year...)
16 01 06 Stéphane Gaudet
Je ne crois pas du tout que Paul Martin soit en danger dans sa circonscription. C'est peut-être plus serré qu'à l'habitude, mais de là à prédire une victoire bloquiste... Les libéraux devraient conserver au moins 8 sièges au Québec, et LaSalle-Émard est le huitième. Il faudrait un transfert de voix de 12,95% du PLC au BQ pour donner la victoire à Madame Chiu. Dans le pire des cas pour les libéraux, les sondages actuels indiquent plutôt des transferts de l'ordre de 8,5%. Laval-Les-Îles peut-être (un transfert de 5,4% suffirait), Bourassa peut-être (6,15%), mais LaSalle-Émard avec 12,95% demeure hors de portée pour le Bloc.
15 01 06 Fabian B
Did anyone see the latest January 14 EKOS poll numbers? According to EKOS, the Liberals have only 15% support in Quebec vs. 21% for the Conservatives and 49% fror the BQ. (though Stretegic Council had the Liberals and CPC almost tied in province wide support) EKOS also gave a vote breakdown for their polling results in MONTREAL: 17% Conservatives; 22% Liberal and 47% BQ. If the Federalist vote splits or if enough disillusioned Liberals aren't motivated enough to vote in Montreal, the 7 Liberals strongholds in Montreal like Mount Royal and Pierrefonds will still stay Liberal but Martin's supposedly rock solid seat may be too close to call. While its incredible to imagine this possibility, the Conservative rise in Montreal and Quebecker's discontent with Martin is so thorough that BQ candidate Chiu here could emerge as le "giant killer" as Duceppe said today. Duceppe was even smart enough to mention Martin's 'sudden' and belated offer to apologise over the Chinese Head Tax issue which plays directly to voter's increasing cynicism and anger of the Liberal Party, and Mr. Martin in particular. Duceppe even had a poster displayed of a Chinese Head Tax certificate in Chiu's constituency office to stress his point. It seems as if Duceppe can't put a foot wrong this election.
Liberal MPs like Irwin Cotler or Stephane Dion will easily win but Paul Martin is another matter. His campaign rally in Montreal this Saturday was held in small Liberal constituency offices--which would not dupe Quebecker's as to the depth of liberal support in La Belle Province. If any of the 8 Liberal Montreal strongholds are at risk, it is likely La Salle Emard.
14 01 06 Andrew
Today, Gilles Duceppe predicted that Paul Martin would fall in his own riding. This may sound like wishful thinking, but Martin's personal popularity is plummeting, the Liberals are bleeding federalist votes in Montreal to the CPC and even NDP and Greens, while the Bloc candidate remains popular. The margin of victory was not massive in 2004, and the Liberals have crashed since then. This will be close race, with the Bloc just squeaking by. I pray federalists that want to see their vote respected in Lasalle-Emard will vote NDP, but this one is a Bloc-Liberal battle.
13 01 06 expat
Let's be clear -- Paul Martin is not Kim Campbell, Lasalle Emard is not Vancouver Centre, and 2006 is not... well, we're still not sure what year 2006 will look like in terms of an incumbent government going down. But barring an end of the campaign meltdown that sends the Liberals into 20% range, this is not a riding that anyone other than Martin can win. The Bloc is the only viable opposition here, and this riding is way too federalist for a BQ win - not even voters being seeking to cast a protest vote against an unpopular government. His margin will be embarrassingly small for a sitting PM in a safe riding - less than 5,000 for sure.
The real race here will come during the by-election later in the year. Martin will be out as Liberal leader quickly, and then there will be a three way race to take his place - the Conservative minority government will recruit a star candidate to prove they can win in Quebec, resurgent Chretien Liberals will fight for the seat as part of their effort to regain control of the party, and the BQ will have a real chance in a 3 way race... That's the election I'm waiting for in this riding.
05 01 06 Vote NDP
No, no, no.
As much as it pains me to say it, given that my left-wing sensibilities find me with more friends in the Bloc than in the Liberal Party, PMPM and the Liberals will be able to hold onto this riding:
It's about 2/3 Francophone, which is not a high enough number to give any riding to the Bloc, and Montreal doesn't have the Tory support that Quebec City, the Beauce, and the Riviere-du-Loup area have that could allow Martin to lose on vote-splitting.
05 01 06 SP
La victoire du Bloc sera par une mince majorité (moins de 700 voix). Cette année, le Bloc a décidé de miser sur une candidate vedette issue de la communauté chinoise. Elle devrait être capable d'aller chercher les votes de contestation chez les fédéralistes. De plus avec la monté des conservateurs, le vote fédéraliste va être divisé. M. Martin ne fait pas beaucoup campagne dans son comté et laisse donc le terrain à May Chiu qui a un réseau de contact très étendus parmi les souverainistes et les communautés culturelles.
30 12 05 Paul Westwood
My point is that Paul Martin could very well find himself in the opposition benches after election day, so don’t assume he will remain Prime Minister.
Also, it was said on this site that "Prime-Minister's rarely lose their riding unless their party gets annihilated". Well, I think anyone can see that in Quebec the liberals seem to be slowly inching closer to being annihilated by the Bloc. Of course the Liberals will not be wiped out, but "annihilated" could be an acceptable term come election day in Quebec.
However, right now, chances are he might hold his seat, but also remember the chances of losing his seat are becoming larger.
28 12 05 mm
Courte victoire bloquiste dans ce compté sans compté qu'un parfait inconue a eu 14 000 vote plusieur gens de ville émard sortiront voté. De plus le bloc possede une candidate asiatique qui pourrais arraché de précieux vote a paul martin si victoire du bloc elle le sera par moin de 500 voix rien n'est impossible
23 12 05 David W
I think we should be careful in interpreting the Strategic Council poll which points to a collapse of Liberal support in Montreal and suggests that Paul Martin may be vulnerable. The sample size is small (under 600, with a wider margin of error then the nation-wide result from that poll), and it measures support over a large number of ridings in the Montreal area.
23 12 05 M. Lunn
Paul Martin won't lose his seat. He won pretty decisively last time and despite the gains of the Bloc Quebecois in Montreal that has been more amongst the Francophone and immigrant communities not Anglophone. While this riding is predominately Francophone, the La Salle portion is solidly Liberal while Emard is more friendly to the Bloc Quebecois. Besides most people would rather have a prime-minister representing them then someone who will be in opposition for sure. Paul Martin will easily be re-elected even if the party wins fewer seats in Quebec and he will certainly keep his job as prime-minister as the Liberals are headed for another victory.
21 12 05 M.T.
Some of the media pundits are beginning to predict that Paul Martin could lose his seat. This still seems incredible... but there does appear to be a meltdown of the Liberal vote in Quebec, even in Montreal. I don't think the Liberal fall has stopped yet; it's possible that if the Bloc gains any more from the Liberals, Harper may gain some momentum. That scenario could potentially eliminate the Grits from Quebec entirely.
21 12 05 Paul Westwood
Going into the election, I thought Paul Martin's seat was a for sure win and that there was almost no chance that he could lose it. However, I've now read this from the CTV website regarding a Strategic Counsel poll done for CTV and The Globe and Mail:
"With the current numbers that they are polling in Quebec, the Liberals would be reduced to seven seats and this number would not include Mr. Martin's own seat," Woolstencroft said. "Right now, there's a risk that the PM might lose his own seat."
If things keep on going the way they are, Paul Martin is going to have to start worrying about his own seat. I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign schedule included more stops in his own riding during the new year.
It seems hard to believe that the Prime Minister could lose his seat, but thinking about it, it wouldn't be the first time that it has happened.
16 12 05 The Invisible Man
While the Bloc is salivating (or dreaming in Technicolor, depending on your point of view) at the thought of defeating PM the PM in his own riding, I fear that our bloquiste friends may be a little misguided. The good burghers of LaSalle will not toss out Martin, unless a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions falls upon the Liberals. This is not 1993. As the Liberals will most likely form government, they will be pouring a lot of goodies into their remaining Quebec ridings in order to maintain a toehold in the province -- and LaSalle-Emard will be one of the beneficiaries (if not THE beneficiary) of this largesse. Maybe the fountain in Shawinigan will be moved to the Isle Aux Herons. That being said, Martin will undoubtedly have a much-reduced plurality in this riding. LaSalle-Emard, Mount Royal and Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine are the only sure-fire bets for the Liberals in Quebec this time around.
16 12 05 JL
Thierry Larrivée était, en 2003, un pur inconnu et a quand même récolté 14000 voix contre Paul Martin. Rappelons nous que ce dernier a profité d'une majorité de 11 000 votes, soit 25%, avec un taux de participation à 60%.
May Chiu, une avocate réputée se présente contre Paul Martin et risque de lui causer quelques surprises. Une importante communauté chinoise est également présente, lui offrant probablement un appui de taille (8000 électeurs au total).
Rappelons nous simplement de la victoire surprise de Godin contre Bourassa. Même si ce n'est pas un comté chaud, je prédis tout de même une victoire du Bloc ici.
07 12 05 quasar
A Bloc prediction (or any other prediction for that matter) here is wishful thinking. Martin won by a landslide last time, and if all the other ridings in Quebec fall to the Bloc (which is unlikely), this one will still remain Liberal. Martin is the PRIME MINISTER of Canada. They wouldn't vote in some Bloc-no-name.
29 11 05 Martin Lamontagne
Les électeurs aurront envie de passer un message a Paul Martin. Il faut prévoir que ce cher $$$ Paul Martin sera réelue mais de justesse. Le Bloc Quebecois fera quelques gains tout comme les conservateurs.
29 11 05
Ceux qui dissent prédissent la victoire du Bloc dans ce comté , ils rêvent! Élection assuré de notre Premier Ministre Paul Martin! et ce même si ce ne serais même pas notre premier ministre ce serais qui ferais élire un candidat Libéral.
23 05 05 MJL
A critical thing that people are forgetting is that of resources - resources are always channelled to the marginal seats. With the few remaining Liberal francophone seats hardly marginal any more this seat would top any target list, since most of the other seats in Quebec are too Anglophone for the Bloc to have a shot.
At any rate, the Bloc has peaked, and making the PM look bad (and forcing him to campaign in his riding instead of nationally) is about all there is left for them to do. I still think Martin will probably win - but at a cost, and certainly without a free ride.
17 05 05 Aric H
Don't agree with the submissions here predicting a defeat for Paul Martin. Not with the current dynamics. The Liberals still have enough support in Quebec to maintain seats like this and my grandmother in Montreal told me yesterday that there is still a lot of support for Paul Martin here. He will not be knocked out unless the Liberals drop to about 5% in Quebec.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
The Ville Emard section of the riding will vote BQ (which is why the BQ predictions here do have SOME merit), however the balance is definitely within the LaSalle portion and it is very federalist with sizeable Anglophone population. Federalist voters will not risk a BQ win by voting Conservative, plus the CPC is just too socially conservative for anywhere in the greater Montreal region. Look for a Martin win, but with a much smaller majority (between 5000 and 8000 votes).
12 05 05 A.S.
I recall reading that at one point during the last Federal election when the Liberals were bottoming out in the teens in Quebec, even PMPM himself was threatened w/defeat in LaSalle-Emard--and even though he did, in the end, win by a nearly 2:1 margin, there remained portentiously surprising swaths of defiantly BQ polls (more in the "Emard" than "LaSalle" part). However, if Dithers loses in his own seat, given the present dynamics it could still be more of a Bourassa '85 than Bourassa '76 situation--and keep in mind that long ago, Mackenzie King lost his own seat as Prime Minister, in 1925 and 1945...
11 05 05 Alberta Grit
I know that most people think this is unrealistic, but I see the francophones voting en masse against the finance minister who let the sponcership scandal happen. Think Don Getty, premeir of Alberta in the 1989 election. Won the election, lost his own seat. This'll be a squeeker, but as long as the Bloc nominates a strong candiate, the anger at Dithers will be catapulted into no-seat land.
Prediction: Bloc 40%, LPC 39% CPC 8% NDP 7% GPC 5% OTH 1%
10 05 05
No matter how much he deserves to lose - Martin will win here -But it won't be a walk. If I was a Liberal with aspirations, living in this riding - I would get organized - because this will be the first by-election after Martin resigns as leader after the next election.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is one of only 8 ridings in the province that will go Liberal. The PM will keep his own seat despite the Bloc's attempts to make that different.
02 05 05 Kyle Simunovic
Even in Quebec Paul will take it once again. I'd love to see him knocked down but this will go liberal unless the Bloc can present a PERFECT candidate.
03 05 05 NDP Newbie
The riding is 2/3 Francophone. Combined with the Fiberal meltdown and federalist vote splitting, this could go Bloc.
Anything that went Tory during the Mulroney years is prime Bloc territory this time around.
03 05 05 shady
At first hand it might seem that the prime minister winning with a 20+ margin in the past election would regain his seat, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind: The Bloc in the last election did not run a serious candidate in this riding probably in order to demonstrate that their objectives are not to undermine the liberal leadership (since they are more concerned about separation than embarassing the prime minister); this riding's population is predominantly francaphone unlike montreal's other 'safe' liberal ridings thus making the riding less safe for martin. The general feeling among francophones in quebec is one of insult and disgust, and if the Bloc finds a serious candidate for this riding they might just oust him out.
05 05 05 BrianJA
Je serais certainement heureux si le conscription de Paul Martin va au Bloc Quebecois, mais il ne transpirera pas. En depit de tout, Paul Martin gagnera ici, bien qu'il doive combattre pour le faire. Il a la chose de "Premier Ministre" aller pour lui, plus cette conscription a été sien pendant beaucoup d'années et il est accumulé un suivant. Prévision: Paul Martin gagnera avec 35% de la voix, comme le peuple vote pour lui non sa Parti Liberal.
02 05 05
If this goes anything but Liberal, we are looking at Kim Campbell territory... and I'm not willing to predict that.
02 05 05 Benjamin Waterman
I'm going to be bold here and predict Paul Martin loses his own seat. This is based on poll numbers that show the Liberals in a nightmarish meltdown scenario in Québec. When turning these numbers into seats, it does show a very real chance that the Bloc can win here, not on their numbers, but simply due to the splintering of the federalist vote. Paul Martin might be immune to this general trend being the Prime Minister. However, there is a chance that he could still be taken out in the general anger at the Liberals in Québec. If the Bloc does win, it will be quite the coup, and very embarrasing for the Liberal Party.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Prime-Minister's rarely lose their riding unless their party gets annihiliated as was the case with Kim Campbell. Paul Martin will still be re-elected, although not by a 26 point margin. He only has to worry about will he still be prime-minister or will he be leader of the Opposition. Member of La Salle-Emard - definitely, Prime-Minister - Maybe, but not a certainty.
27 04 05 JC
No matter how unpopular Paul Martin is in the Country, he will not lose his own seat.
26 04 05
This is the riding of mr Dithers himself.
The voters of LaSalle-Emard willlikely vote for the sitting Prime minister, but will likely be going back to the polls within a short time after Mr Dithers resignation shortly after the upcoming Turneresque defeat of theLPC.

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