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Projet D'Élection Prévision

Mount Royal
2006 - élection générale (Canada)

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Irwin Cotler
Neil Martin Drabkin
Bloc Québécois
Guillaume Dussault
Diane Johnston
Damien Pichereau
Nicolas R. Thibodeau

Hon. Irwin Cotler

2004 Résultats:
Irwin Cotler
Matthew Fireman
Vincent Gagnon
Sébastien Beaudet
Adam Sommerfeld
Adam Greenblatt
Diane Johnston

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2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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18 01 06 01/02/2003
If the Liberal Party was to be reduced to a single seat nationwide, this could well be that seat. The race is close by Mount Royal standards, which means that Cotler will "only" get 50 to 60 % of the vote. Needless to say, this would still be an easy Liberal win in a riding that was colourfully described by the late Socred leader Réal Caouette as so Liberal that voters would vote for a pig with a red ribbon (and not a mailbox as erroneously asserted by Ex-liberal) if that pig was the Liberal candidate.
29 11 05
Irwin Cotler sera réélu avec une autre majorité forte éclatante, déja qu'il a obtenu la plus grande majorité dans l'histoire du Canada. L'hon. Irwin Cotler est aussi un Ministre fort important, donc cela lui donne déja un avantage.
30 11 05 L.O.
Paul Martin could shoot a grandmother hodling an infant with an acid gun on live television and the Liberals would still win more than 50% of the vote in this riding. As they used to say back in Newfoundland during the Smallwood years, you could "run a yellow dog" for the Liberals here and it would win. There's either something in the water or there are "L" Chromosomes here! Safe Locked Down Liberal seat!
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
Réal Caouette once said of this riding that the Liberals could present a mailbox here and they would still win. Things haven't changed here since that time. If the Liberals were to keep only one seat in the entire province, this one would be the one. Easy Liberal win here.
27 09 05
In a 1999 by-election, Cotler won 92% of the vote, and 88% MARGIN over his nearest opponent. Enough said.
29 05 05
If one wants the most recent idea of how a bottomed-out Liberal Party can fare in Mont-Royal, in the first post-Trudeau election of 1984, Sheila Finestone won with 47 1/2% of the vote over the PC's 39%. So, a technical marginal then--but that's pre-BQ, so that's excused. But then there's 1958, when Grits very barely held out versus Diefenmania--but that's pre-Quiet Revolution, so *that's* excused. And then there's 1935-and-before...aw, forget it. And at the moment at least, there's no English-rights party or Galganov on the horizon to gouge any token share out. The way things are set up now, the sign of the devil for Quebec's beleaguered federal Grits will be if they hit less than 66.6% of the vote in Mont-Royal. Which is extremely plausible. Except that all things considered, Cotler is more of a Trudeau than a Finestone...
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
Absolutly no chance AT ALL for anything but a Liberal win. This is hard core federalist territory and the Progressive Conservatives were too right wing for this riding (oddly, the NDP are too left wing for this riding).
07 05 05 Aric H
The Liberals appear to have regained their 2nd place rank in the Quebec polls now and the Conservatives have gone down again and so no other Federal party is going to be winning here. This is the safest Liberal seat in Canada. Irwin Cotler has nothing to worry about.
27 04 05 Nick Boragina
I'm going to say that Mount Royal will go Liberal, but that's not even a certainty. While this is the most Liberal riding, perhaps in the history of the nation, the Liberals are running in third in Quebec right now, something they have not done since 1844, before Canada became a nation. I would not count anything out, if the Federalists swing to the tories, this riding could go blue.
02 05 05 RWA
No matter how bad things get for the Liberals, they will always hold this riding.
02 05 05 BrianJA
Mount Royal is kept Liberal by the ghost of Trudeau, the wealthy folk that live in the riding, and the popular incumbent. The Liberals will hold this riding for another 45 years, if they want to. Prediction: Liberal pickup with 70%+ of the vote.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Regardless of how well the liberals do in Quebec, this is probably the safest liberal riding in all of Canada. This was their best showing in both 2000 and 2004 80% and 75% and this riding has gone liberal every election since 1935. The wealthy Mount Royal residents know things would get worse if the Bloc wins more seats and there is another referendum where the separtists win. Irwin Cotler will be returning to Ottawa as either Justice minister if the liberals win or Justice Critic if they lose. I support his strong stance on same-sex marriage and would much rather have him than Vic Toews as Justice minister.
26 04 05
We can, of course, hope for a miracle, but i can't see Mount Royal doing anything but voting Liberal. Closest anybody has come in recent years to knocking off a Liberal was Howard Galganov, who as an independent, managed to get 20% of the vote.
26 04 05 JC
The Bloc could sweep Quebec but this is one of the few ridings where they will most definitely not win. Liberal Hold.

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