Mise à jour:
5:55 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
6:06 PM 20/01/2006
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2006 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Céline Brault
Lawrence Cannon
Bloc Québécois
Christine Émond Lapointe
Moe Garahan
Benoit Legros
David Smith

David Smith

2004 Résultats:
David Smith
L-Hubert Leduc
Judith Grant
Gretchen Schwarz
Thierry Vicente
Benoit Legros

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

18 01 06
In terms of electoral results, the strong conservative vote in Pontiac has typically been expressed through the vehicle of the Liberal party, but it might just as well be expressed through the Conservative party in this election. Like in other ridings in the province, the vote from the right will likely fall in line behind either the candidate of the Conservatives or the candidate of the Liberals, depending on which one of the two will be seen, on the eve of the election, as being best positioned to win. In Pontiac, this seems to be the Conservative Cannon, who, in the most recent riding poll, gets 29%, practically at equality with the BQ's Émond-Lapointe at 30%, with the Liberal Smith at 22%. With just a few more Liberal voters switching to the Conservatives before the election to avoid a BQ victory, this could very well mean a victory for Cannon.
17 01 06 Tyler Roncero
The Radio-Canada poll puts this as a fight between the conservatives and the bloc! Cannon has the support of 26% vs. 27% for Émond-Lapointe. Forget any idea about this going liberal! Also, I think it will go conservative as even now the conservatives continue to climb, and with the poll being released, and more and more attention being given to Pontiac, I expect the conservative vote to only rise and lead Cannon to victory. Especially since people know he will be a minister if elected!
17 01 06 Victor A.
Christine Émond Lapointe ( BQ ) and Lawrence Cannon ( Conservative ) are neck and neck in this race according to the new CROP survey conducted between 11th and 14th of January. Émond-Lapointe is just one point ahead at 30 %, Cannon is at 29 % and the Liberal incumbent David Smith is distant third at 22 % while the NDP is strong 4th. I believe that at the end of the day Cannon will be able to pull it off
17 01 06 JFB
Chose certaine, la lutte est très chaude... Sondage CROP-La Presse du 17 janvier 2006 pour le comté de Pontiac: Conservateur 26%, Bloc 27%, Libéral 19%, NPD 13%. Nous sommes carrément dans les marges d'erreur, mais je crois que Cannon aura une prime au vainqueur. Victoire des conservateurs par peu de voix.
17 01 06 M. Moreau
In the CROP poll (avec un marge d'erreur de 6 points) in La Presse this morning: Lawrence Cannon 29%, Christine Émond-Lapointe 28%, David Smith 22%. Cannon will win, because the federalists will gather around one candidate to avoid losing to the BQ - especially in this anglophone riding. Seeing this poll, federalists will conclude that Cannnon has the better shot of the two federalists. Also, Cannon has a shot at cabinet.
16 01 06 Brian Dell
Latest Strategic Counsel poll has Liberals at 12% outside Montreal. If that isn't a historic collapse then what is. The only Liberal seat outside Montreal will be Hull-Alymer. La Presse also reported the Cannon will get Foreign Affairs and will be deputy PM in a Harper cabinet. Today at the Buckingham rally I heard Harper himself declare that "j'ai besoin de Lawrence dans mon cabinet". Today La Presse has quoted big chunks of Harper's speech in the Pontiac, and concluded that "L'invitation du chef conservateur n'aurait pas pu être plus claire qu'elle ne l'était dimanche." Yesterday (Saturday) La Presse said the Liberals were running 3rd in the Pontiac, and the huge media coverage Harper is getting in Quebec should keep Liberal votes bleeding to Cannon in order to keep the Bloc out in this federalist riding.
16 01 06 peter young
Cannon has been offered a cabinet position
15 01 06 Vote NDP
I really don't see the Grits holding onto this one: This riding, as others have stated, offers pockets of support to all three of Quebec's relevant parties, the Tories dominating the Anglophone towns (such as Shawville, where the Canadian Alliance won its only Quebec poll of the 2000 election) and many rural parts of the riding. Without even getting into the strength of Tory candidate Lawrence Cannon, I can safely say that this riding will likely be caught in a Tory tide that will deliver at least three Quebec ridings (My number is so low mainly because of the way the Quebec vote is distributed: The Tories will have similar problems federally that the right-libertarian ADQ have always had provincially. Oh how we need electoral reform in this politically backwards country.) to the Tories and that will leave the Liberals grasping desperately for second place against a nearly-as-resurgent Bloc Quebecois campaign.
13 01 06 Fodor
I think that the predictions of a Liberal "historic collapse" in Quebec are exaggerated. Yes, the Liberal vote is way down outside of English Montreal...but what support is left is concentrated in a few strong federalist ridings such as this one. I still think the Liberals can keep this one, but if the don't, a split federalist vote could mean a Bloc victory.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
Look at it candidate by candidate:
"David Smith 15358" going down due to Liberal collapse in Quebec and Conservative rise.
"L-Hubert Leduc 11685" going up due to substantial Bloc Rise.
"Judith Grant 8869" being replaced by Lawrence Cannon means this goes up.
"Gretchen Schwarz 2317" was a victim of Jim Harris's GPC Council purges, and her NDP riding association didn't want her or support her. So NDP vote will be up this time because they'll get out the vote. Green vote will be down because of the same disorganization and ill will in the GPC. Schwarz was just sued by the GPC for speaking to the Canadian Press. Expect NDP to exploit this and pick up any Greens that aren't demoralized. (most of 'em).
So what you have is three federalist parties splitting the vote more evenly and votes that wanted a corporate tax cut not going Green this time (2004 platform wanted on, 2006 one swings left). That smells like Bloc victory.
Finally the Bloc vote is younger and the Bloc sounds much more like the NDP in this election, so they'll take some NDP votes away. A snowstorm is good for both Bloc and NDP (and Greens especially) since their voters are young.
If it snows, Bloc win. If not, it's close, but I still predict a Bloc win.
The Conservative could only win by picking up the Green platform and just promising to do everything in it that he can stomach. And he won't do that.
10 01 05 Liberty Canada
With the Liberals melting down as they are, and Cannon as a rising star throughout Quebec, and david Smith nowhere to be seen as Abotech burns, I think it is time for the guys at Election prediction to move this solidly into the Conservative fold.
L Ian MacDonald was saying after the debate that the Quebec Liberal party will be sending its troops out to deliver the vote in ridings where the Conservatives have a real shot. In the case of Lawrence Cannon, let's not forget, he's one of their own, as well.
10 01 05 MJL
The Conservatives stand to gain a few seats in Quebec on the basis of regional strength in the east/north-east of the province. Polls I have seen show a two way race in this part of Quebec, with the Conservatives trailing by about 5 points. With the candidacy of Lawrence Cannon (who has had a lot of publicity provincially, representing the Tories on talk shows, etc.), and with the traditional strength of the party in this riding, I think it is fair to say they have a solid shot here - even better than in Louis Saint-Laurent, where the bouyant Bloc is a real competitor.
Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if it was the only riding they won in Quebec.
09 01 05 Not Non-Partisan
Cannon will gain votes both from the Bloc and the Liberals. The Bloc votes will come from people who were disgusted with the Libs in 2004 and really didn't have another option and the Lib votes will be from the local Lib collapse in 2006. In all, he'll win a squeaker over Lapointe. CPC 14,000, Bloc 13,000, Libs 9,500.
Cannon and Verner on the front bench of a Tory minority government!
09 01 05 JFB
J'ai longtemps hésité avant de me prononcer sur Pontiac, notamment parce que malgré un candidat conservateur connu, le PCC n'était pas du tout sur le radar au Québec. Ce qui n'est plus le cas... avec un PCC en forte hausse et un PLC et BQ en baisse, l'élection de Cannon devient possible. On aura sans doute droit à trois conservateurs au Québec le 23 janvier: Pontiac, Beauce et Louis-Saint-Laurent.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Look at it candidate by candidate:
"David Smith 15358" going down due to Liberal collapse in Quebec and Conservative rise.
"L-Hubert Leduc 11685" going up due to substantial Bloc Rise.
"Judith Grant 8869" being replaced by Lawrence Cannon means this goes up.
"Gretchen Schwarz 2317" was a victim of Jim Harris's GPC Council purges, and her NDP riding association didn't want her or support her. So NDP vote will be up this time because they'll get out the vote. Green vote will be down because of the same disorganization and ill will in the GPC. Schwarz was just sued by the GPC for speaking to the Canadian Press. Expect NDP to exploit this and pick up any Greens that aren't demoralized. (most of 'em).
So what you have is three federalist parties splitting the vote more evenly and votes that wanted a corporate tax cut not going Green this time (2004 platform wanted on, 2006 one swings left). That smells like Bloc victory.
Finally the Bloc vote is younger and the Bloc sounds much more like the NDP in this election, so they'll take some NDP votes away. A snowstorm is good for both Bloc and NDP (and Greens especially) since their voters are young.
If it snows, Bloc win. If not, it's close, but I still predict a Bloc win.
The Conservative could only win by picking up the Green platform and just promising to do everything in it that he can stomach. And he won't do that.
06 01 06 The Humble Prophet
With the Liberals fading nationally, nearing a historic collapse in Quebec, and with francophone federalists searching for a federalist alternative to the Liberals, with Conservative Lawrence Cannon's Quebecois-Irish appeal to both anglophones and francophones in the riding, with the Liberal candidate being investigated by the ethics Counsellor, this adds up to another beachhead for the Conservatives in Quebec. Cannon by 2000 over the Bloc, Liberal trailing badly.
05 01 06 M.T.
I had held off predicting this one as a Tory win, since I wanted to make sure it wasn't wishful thinking, but by this point I think there is a strong probability of the Conservatives winning seats in Quebec. One poll released today (in the Star) suggested the Tories have as much as 20% in Quebec, which is a huge gain. This probably is too high, but the Conservatives certainly have momentum here.
Because this is a federalist riding, it is quite possible that some Liberals will back Cannon just to avoid a Bloc MP, if he is seen as the one with momentum. Right now the Conservatives are perceived as having momentum; the Liberals aren't. If the Conservatives continue to present themselves as being ready to govern, a large number of federalist Quebeckers will back them. The fact that the Conservative candidate here used to be a Liberal contributes to the image that the Tories are replacing the Grits as the federalist option for Quebec.
Conservatives by 5%.
05 01 06 Brian Dell
Le dernier scrutin d'EKOS pour Québec :
Bloc 43.8%
Libéral 21.9%
Conservateur 20.2%
Si les conservateurs sont vraiment près de 20% dans la province, ils devraient prendre Pontiac dans un éboulement.
04 01 06 James
A correction to a previous submission. Mr. Lawrence Cannon has never lived in the Pontiac riding, he's a long-time resident of Hull/Gatineau, which is close to, but not in, the Pontiac riding. That's a key assertion to make.
31 12 05 quasar
Look at it this way- in Josee Verner's riding, the pundits ignored her and dismissed her as a real candidate for Louis-St.Laurent. And then, BAM, on election day, she came in a close second to the Bloc Quebecois candidate. The Conservatives have never been a force in Quebec, but with Harper getting a lot of media attention in Quebec and with a popular, well known figure Lawrence Cannon, the Conservatives might be able to pull this off. Especially as the Libs have been running a slack campaign nationally and with their fortunes plummeting down in Quebec, expect approx. 1000 votes going to Bloc from Smith in frustration with the Liberal government, and approx. 4000 federalist votes going to Cannon from Smith, leaving Lawrence Cannon with a win.
28 12 05 Shawvillain
Smith is nowhere to be found except in Maniwaki. Why is a candidate from Maniwaki in his hometown? Because things are going so bad he is even worried about his base. He has been nowhere around the west end of the riding, while Lawrence Cannon and the Conservatives have opened two offices - Shawville and Fort Coulonge. Smith has none. Add others in Maniwaki and Buckingham and you have a strong organisation in place. This riding is now a battle between the Conservatives and the Bloc. Did you know that Lawrence Cannon beat Pauline Marois provincially by 16,000 votes in 1985?
03 01 06 Safe Liberal Seat
The Conservative and Bloc Hacks have to stop predicting that they will win here. First, the only way the Bloc can improve in this riding from the last election is if the Anglophones or aboriginals spontaneously decide to support them. So lets get real people English Quebeckers will never, never and I mean never vote for the Bloc. Furthermore the only reason the Bloc did so well in the last election here is because of the soft federalist francophone vote by people who were mad at the Liberals. Secondly, as for the Conservative Lawrence Cannon he might improve from the last conservative candidate result by a max of a 1000 votes at best no enough to make any difference. So before people continue to predict Bloc and Conservative breakthrough's I suggest they go to elections Canada website and look at the poll by poll results because David Smith will be reelected with the support of communities like Maniwaki, Fort-Coulonge, Mansfield and so on that have overwhelmingly voted liberal since the creation of the earth.
02 01 06 love, sydney
But Cannon in this riding could slide up the middle; many federalist Quebecers, including those non-Liberals who have danced with the Bloc, will want to have someone on the gov't side of the table. Cannon's profile and familiarity will make him an easy compromise for even some disgruntled Grits who hate le Bloc. But if the current Tory trend hits a bump over the final 20 days, all bets are off.
22 12 05 Jeff Greenfield
Unlike Judith Grant, Lawrence Cannon is fluently bilingual. He's also a longtime resident of this riding, and former provincial cabinet minister. Conservative numbers are also up slightly in Quebec, and may increase further as Harper's Quebec platform becomes more widely known. This is one of the few ridings that they'll be targeting in the province.
21 12 05
This riding is comprised of a high percentage of Aboriginal and Anglophone voters therefore people need to stop predicting a Bloc win here. This is a riding that voted 88% No in the 1995 Referendum. The Bloc has never provincially nor federally ever won this riding and never will. Watch the conservatives to finish second this time around Predicted Results 35%lib 32%Cons 30% bloc 3% other
20 12 05 Volks Lad
The increase in internet access in this riding, and the investigation into Abotech in the papers and by bloggers will actually lose David Smith about 3000+ votes. Likely a first in Canada.
His comment that natives don't vote won't win him any support either.
09 12 05 François
Christiane Émond-Lapointe est une femme qui a été très impliquée dans sa communauté. D'ailleurs, étant présidente de la commission scolaire des Draveurs, j'ai entendu beaucoup de bien d'elle d'autres présidents de commissions scolaires, alors j'estime qu'elle a beaucoup de chances de gagner ce comté, ce qui nous en fera 2/3 pour l'Outaouais, c'est vraiment super !
08 12 05 Rusty
What the Conservative touters are forgetting is Mr. Smith has a very strong following at the other end of the riding in Maniwaki. It was pratically what won him the election last time. Now with the conservatives stealing away votes in the rural areas and in west-end buckingham, and Smith holding Maniwaki, the Bloc has the potential (with the apperntly strong candidate they are fielding) to run up the middle. While the Tories will appeal to the social conservatives, (the Bloc being a socially progressive party) they simply won't take away enough votes from the Liberals to take the seat. They WILL however, take away enough to allow the bloc (which was far closer in the last election) to take it. Bloc in a squeaker.
08 12 05 ced
La bataille sera chaude dans ce comté. Malgré la candidature vedette de Lawrence Cannon, les conservateurs ne "lèvent" pas au Québec. David Smith fera une forte campagne de terrain et ce n'est pas un secret d'affirmer que le comté de Pontiac n'est pas un territoire fertile pour le Bloc. Par contre, si jamais Cannon réussi à aller chercher une bonne proportion du vote fédéraliste, nous pourrions avoir une surprise le 23 juin...un premier député du Bloc pour le comté de Pontiac. Lutte intéressante à suivre...
07 12 05 JT
I say Liberal hold. I know the Conservatives are targeting this seat but they are at least another election away from winning a seat in Quebec. Plus the Bloc did surprisingly well in this largely Anglophone riding the last time around.
07 12 05
Chaude Lutte à prévoir! David Smith ou Lawrence Cannon l'emportera avec une majorité fort serré dans les 1000 voix et moins. Ce qu'il pourrait aussi arriver c'est que le Bloc passent entre les Libéraux et les Conservateurs, car si les électeurs fédéralistes divisent leur votent entre Libéraux et Conservateur ce qui réduit la majoritée des deux parti fédéralistes à élire leur candidat.Cependant cela pourrait arriver seulement si aucun électeurs bloquiste qui a voter en 2004, ne votent pour les Conservateur ou Libéraux ou n'ait pas voter, à moins qu'il ait aussi plus d'électeurs qui votent bloquiste.
06 12 05 Rebel
I cannot resist noting the political trivia that the Conservatives held Pontiac till 1965...PC MP Paul Martineau winning the seat by 1 vote (the returning officers) in 1963...Guess what...the RO was replaced by the Pearson government before 1965 rolled around...
I also think that Cannon might break through in some further areas beyond the rural Anglo ones that supported Judith Grant last time and take it with 30%+ of the vote...
05 12 05 Pierre-Luc Pilon
The Bloc just announced their candidate in Pontiac : Christine Émond-Lapointe, gatineau's school-board president.
She's from Cantley and really well committed to her community. With a three-legged horse in 2004, the Bloc managed to be only 3600 vote short of a victory.
As a former voter from this ridding, I predict that with Christine Emond-Lapointe as candidate, with the current anger against the liberals and the potential federalist vote split with Cannon, the Bloc will win this federalist stronghold.
05 12 05 quasar
A close race between Bloc, Liberal, and the Tories. This riding could go a few different directions: Liberal and Tory vote splitting might equal a Bloc win, or the Liberal voters could switch Tories and give them this riding. Afterall, the Tories have a high-profile candidate running here, and suggesting him winning here is not wishful thinking but in fact a credible prediction. At the moment, this is too close to call.
29 11 05 Ryan
In 2004 the vote was pretty close between the Liberal, Bloc, and Conservative candidates. The Liberals' David Smith was only elected for his first term in 2004, and with the Liberals on the decline in La Belle Province, I believe Smith will likewise lose some of his support.
The anglophones in Pontiac tend to vote for the Conservatives -- as can be seen by the poll results from Shawville and Bristol in 2004. With the Conservatives running former Quebec Liberal Cabinet Minister Lawrence Cannon, I'm predicting that the Tories will obtain a foothold in Quebec by winning Pontiac. Prior to 1993, the PC's represented Pontiac in the House of Commons.
29 11 05 Pierre
Avec ce candidat vedette et la déconfiture probable des Libéraux lors des prochaines élections, le party Conservateur aura sont premier siège Québécois à Ottawa. Contrairement aux commentaires ci-dessous, je crois que le plongeons que les Libéraux sont sur le point de vivre au Québec donnera des chances aux conservateurs car les Électeurs fédéralistes de cette circonscription ne voterons jamais ou grand jamais Bloc Québécois( Noubliez pas qu'il y a des miliers de fonctionnaires fédéraux qui habitent Pontiac).
29 11 05 David Pagé
Très difficile à dire... Cependant je crois que la course va vraiment se faire à trois et dans ce genre de course c'est l'équipe sur le terrain tout le long de la campagne et le Jour J qui va faire la différence. Un ancien ministre libéral provincial bilingue et plutôt connu comme candidat conservateur, un candidat libéral très "people" mais qui doit se battre contre les accusations d'intégrité des dernières semaines dans le contexte du scandale des commandites et finalement une présidente de commission scolaire assez connue et bien entouré (plus de 300 militants selon l'organisation). Le nouveau comté de Pontiac n'a rien à voir avec l'ancien. Toute la partie "Antoine-Labelle" fait maintenant partie du nouveau château fort bloquiste de Laurentides-Labelle et l'ajout de Buckingham et Masson-Angers à cette circonscription n'a pas en 2004 apporté les milliers de voix fédéralistes espérées par les libéraux. En effet, Buckingham, Masson-Angers, Val-des-Monts, Notre-Dame-de-la-Salette, L'Ange-Gardien, Cantley et les hameaux de Sainte-Cécile-de-Masham et Aldfield dans la municipalité de La Pêche ont voté pour un parti souverainiste pour la première fois de leur histoire. Le scandale étant encore un gros sujet pour les électeurs du Québec, gageons que cela ne risque pas de changer. De plus, lors des dernières élections les municipalité francophone du nord du comté (Maniwaki et les environs) n'ont pas appuyé le Bloc de la même façon que le reste du Québec. Chose curieuse, le taux de participation dans ce secteur a été nettement plus bas qu'ailleurs dans le comté. Gageons encore que si ces gens sortent sanctionné les libéraux, rien de beau n'attend M. Smith. Bref, je crois que le Bloc a de très bonne chance si M. Cannon se limite à gruger les voix de M. Smith dans le Pontiac. Si cette montée de M. Cannon est plus grande cependant, les conservateurs pourraient bien avoir trouvé un ministre pour le Québec s'ils atterissent au gouvernement.
30 11 05
Chaude lutte a prévoir! Lawrence Cannon a une certaine expérience, cela lui donne donc une certaine avantage en plus qu'il avait été député dans la région de l'Outaouais et aussi ministre pour le gouvernement Libéral au QC. Malgré cela je prévoit l'élection du député libéral M. David Smith. Le seul chose qui pourrait arriver c'est que les électeurs qui votait libéral décide de voter conservateur (à cause de la comission Gomery)ce qui ferais réduire la majorité de M.Smith.
30 11 05 L.O.
CPC took about one in every four votes in this riding in 2004. Now they have a high profile candidate, an even angrier Quebec population, and the usual cleavages that affect politics in Quebec. People in Quebec who are angry with the Liberals and not interested in handing another seat to the BQ have but one viable option. It's become that much more viable now with Tories targeting it and with Lawrence Canon on the Ballot. This is also part of the same region where there is still some reminants of the Union Nationale-through-to-ADQ core. It's not as strong as Louis St. Laurent, but it's definitely a seat up for grabs. . . If it doesn't swing Bloc, CPC are next in line.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
The Conservative Party decided to waste social liberal Lawrence Cannon as their candidate in what is probably the second-most socially conservative riding in the entire province... Smart move, boys -- NOT ! Had the Tories made a wiser choice they would have managed to pick up this riding, but they did not. Oh, and by the way, that poster who claims Pontiac is socially liberal has to be a Liberal troll, for I know a number of people from the area and they all tell me how socially conservative the riding is, even if they are not themselves social conservatives. With no social conservative candidate, voters will vote to reject separatism, and Liberals will keep this seat and they have no reason to lose sleep about this one.
19 11 05
Not sure who will win here definetely a three way race. But I do know that at least in 2004 the conservative candidate won a lot more than simply shawville, it won the municipalities of Low, Chichester, Leslie-Clapham-and-Huddersfield, Clarendon, Campbell's Bay, Grand-Calumet, Bryson, Portage-du-Fort, Litchfield, Bristol and Quyon, and this time around Lawrence Cannon is expected to do well in buckingham the ridings largest city. The Bloc also won some municipalities, they won Grand-Remous, Bois-Franc, Sainte-Thérèse-de-la-Gatineau, Sainte-Sophie-East Aldfield, Duclos, Masham, Cantley, Notre-Dame-de-la-Salette, Val des monts, L'ange Gardien, and did very well in Buckingham and Masson Anger, all other municipalities in the riding were won by the Liberal. So that's the breakdown of what could become a very interesting three way race.
07 11 05 Vote NDP
Probably the hardest Ottawa Valley riding to predict, this somewhat rural riding features the only poll in Quebec (in Shawville) that voted for the Canadian Alliance in 2000 and was also about the only place in pre-Quiet Revolution Quebec where Anglophones voted for far-right French Canadian nationalist Maurice Duplessis. These factors, when combined with a very strong Tory candidate in former PLQ cabinet minister Lawrence Cannon (A PLQer running as a Tory? Jean Lesage must be turning in his grave!), makes this a three-way race where the winning party will more or less take the riding by accident.
02 11 05 Craig
The newly discovered Abotech scandal for David Smith, as well as the moderate First Nations population here angered by the Kashechewan crisis, have changed things here. This could be either the Conservatives' opportunity to find a Quebec seat, or the Bloc Quebecois could pull a shocker here in this mostly federalist, heavily Anglophone seat more typical of rural eastern Ontario than Quebec. The Liberals are likely to drop, but can Lawrence Cannon pull the federalist vote onto his side, or will the Bloc try to take some of that energy? I'm leaning towards the former, but it is too close to call and could be one of the only 3-way races in Quebec. Predicted results: CPC 32%, BQ 30%, LIB 29%, NDP 6%, others 3%.
18 05 05 Jean-Roch Villemaire
À moins que les fédéralistes appuient massivement Lawrence Cannon, le candidat conservateur divisera le vote fédéraliste et permettra ainsi au Bloc d'avoir un élu en Outaouais, de surcroît dans le Pontiac!
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
This riding has a very interesting dynamic in that it has a social conservative element unlike other Quebec ridings and reflective of those ridings across the river in Ontario. The question is will that element be strong enough to draw off enough votes from the Liberals to allow the BQ to win (Conservatives are still not strong enough to win this one) or will the large English speaking community vote Liberal siply to block the bloc. We think it will be the latter but it is still too early to tell.
12 05 05 RWA
This is the #2 Conservative target in Quebec, which means that they're at best getting set up for the next election. This time, they'll do just well enough to split the federalist vote and let the Bloc sneak in.
12 05 05 John
Judith Grant won almost all the rural area of this riding last time around, which behaves more like an Ontario rural riding than the rest of Quebec, and was defeated because of Buckingham Masson and Anger. But now with Lawrence Cannon a popular city councillor of the city of Gatineau, wich Buckingham Masson Anger are now part of, he will probably carry the vote there as well. All in all great chances for the conservatives. Not only is it one of two chances for the conservatives in Quebec, along with Louis-Saint-Laurent, but insteead of competing with the bloc, this is the only Quebec riding were the fight could be between conservatives and Liberals, replacing a Federalist Liberal with a federalist Tory.
08 05 05 KI
The messages on this board predicting a Bloc or Conservative win here are either humbly optimistic or by people who clearly don't live nor ever visit the riding. Two things are very clear about this riding and yet they have actually been strangely mixed up on this board and even in some single messages. This is more like a riding out of Ontario than Quebec. The population is not only mostly bilingual but in some cases only english speaking. In parts of the Pontiac I have actually had to translate convenience store clerks and such for my mother when she visits because numerous stores owners themselves are not even bilingual. And as for that damn sign law, if the police ever cracked down in this area the province could make a fortune in fines. Also, during the 1995 referendum this area soundly opposed separation. So to suggest that this riding will turn to the Bloc is absolutely ridiculous - it will not happen. Secondly, this riding, my friends, is nothing like Mrs. Gallant's riding. If you take note at Mrs. Gallant's popularity it largely came from the backwoods of her riding, they have a their own bible belt in that riding. This riding is nothing like that. Also, if you attend church regularly you will notice that even the catholics in this area are very progressive and do not oppose abortion, same-sex marriage and birth control like that extremist loud mouth of an MP across the river does. I would strongly encourage outsiders to not look at the numbers on the side of the page and make predictions based on the results of the last election without knowing first that we have a great constituency MP, we have a huge anglophone population, and unlike the rest of Quebec, the Gomery inquiry is not as hot an issue (again, we are more like an Ontario riding - but not bible belt conservative Ontario). This riding will still Liberal.
03 05 05 TC
This one is to close to Call, the Conservatives did very well here last year taking 22% of the vote while the Bloc took 29%, and David Smith from the Liberals took 33% to win, with damage from Gomery, this riding will be a 2 horse race with star candidate Lawrence Cannon for the Conservative and whom ever the Bloc nominates.
03 05 05 benjerry
Les gens rêvent en couleur lorsqu'il pense que Lawrence Gannon peut gagner ce comté. Les gens de Pontiac vont voter libéral peu importe la stature du candidat et peu importe ce que le Parti libéral fera au pouvoir(bien ou mal) Avec 3600 de majorité, le député libéral de Pontiac peut dormir tranquille.
03 05 05 Full Name
Malgré leur chute au Québec les libéraux vont certainement gagner ce siège. En 2004 les libéraux ont gardé ce siège. Si Stéphane Harper veut avoir des sièges au Québec, qu'ils se concentre sur Louis St-Laurent, Lotbinière Chute la Chaudière et les autres de la ville de Québec en plus de la Beauce. Lawrence Canon ne sera pas élu point. Un libéral au conservatuer , le monde en veulent pas.
03 05 05 Full Name
Malgré leur chute au Québec les libéraux vont certainement gagner ce siège. En 2004 les libéraux ont gardé ce siège. Si Stéphane Harper veut avoir des sièges au Québec, qu'ils se concentre sur Louis St-Laurent, Lotbinière Chute la Chaudière et les autres de la ville de Québec en plus de la Beauce. Lawrence Canon ne sera pas élu point. Un libéral au conservatuer , le monde en veulent pas.
03 05 05 Paul
English-speaking federalists are aware at how close the election was last time and will not want to risk a Bloc win.
Lawrence Cannon is a great candidate, but not for this riding. He favours homosexual marriage, which would be great electorally for many Quebec ridings but not this one.
Had the CPC chosen a better candidate they would have had a chance to get federalists to rally to their party, but they unwisely wasted a very electable candidate in the wrong riding.
Expect the riding to stay Liberal.
04 05 05 David Pagé
Si les Conservateurs font une percée quelconque lors des prochaines élections fédérales au Québec, c'est par Pontiac qu'elle va commencer. Mme Grant a prouvée lors des deux dernières élections que la base conservatrice de ce comté n'a pas disparue depuis les nombreuses élections de Barry Moore, ancien député Conservateur pendant près de 10 ans... La population anglophone des M.R.C. du Pontiac et des Collines de l'Outaouais a déjà donné une majorité au Parti Conservateur lors des dernières élections. Gageons que plusieurs d'entres eux voudront punir les libéraux la prochaine fois tout en sachant que cela ne permettra pas au Bloc de se faufiler. De plus, la question du marriage gai fait beaucoup de vague dans ce comté plutôt traditionaliste. Si le prochain gouvernement est Conservateur, le comté de Pontiac se sera donné un ministre!
05 05 05 Initial
le Bloc Québécois pourrait passer là si le vote des anglophones de ce comté split en deux entre les libéraux et les conservateurs... 33 % pour le Bloc, 26 % pour le PLC et 26 % pour les conservateurs...
06 05 05 M. Lunn
This is probably the only riding where a three way race could develop. With anger over the adscam likely to split between the Conservatives and Bloc not to mention this riding has a large Anglophone community, the liberals may still win this. Also a split vote amongst federalist voters could allow the Bloc to come up the middle and takes this riding. This is probably the Conservatives second best riding in Quebec, but still a long shot. They will more likely be the kingmaker in determining who wins depending on who they steal votes from.
02 05 05 Shane
This is one of the strongest Tory ridings in Québec, and with star candidate Lawrence Cannon, it's their best chance for a Québec pick-up.
02 05 05 Craig
This riding is more like eastern Ontario than Quebec. This is a rare Quebec seat where the Bloc Quebecois are relatively weak, and with the Liberals collapsing in Quebec and eastern Ontario, this seat should go Conservative as the federalist vote is able to swing right here. Cheryl Gallant across the river also helps, particularly in the Quebec part of the Ottawa Valley. Predicted results: CPC 35%, BQ 31%, LIB 20%, NDP 7%, GRN 6%.
02 05 05 MC
It always warms my heart to see Tory wishful thinking. They obsessed over this riding last time and no doubt is doing it again with Cannon. Well they came in a distant third last time, and there is no reason to think it would change this time. If Harper has anyone with half a brain on his Quebec campaign he would realize they actually have a chance in Louis-Saint-Laurent and should not be wasting their resources on a hopeless cause here.
The real question here is, would the votes be so split that the separatist would pull a surprise win in this Anglophone, federalist riding.
26 04 05 Neal
Pontiac has become more and more of a Conservative leaning riding since 2000 when Judith Grant first presented herself as a candidate. I think Lawrence cannon will finally put the Tories over the top.

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