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Projet D'Élection Prévision

2006 - élection générale (Canada)

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Bloc Québécois
Sophie Fréchette
Serge Lachapelle
Louise O'Sullivan
Lucienne Robillard
Julie Sabourin
Bill Sloan
Eric Wilson Steedman

L'Hon. Lucienne Robillard

2004 Résultats:
Lucienne Robillard
Louis La Rochelle
Eric Wilson Steedman
Robert Gervais
Brian Sarwer-Foner
David John Proctor
Serge Lachapelle

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2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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18 01 06 Bear and Ape
My oh my, how much can change during an election campaign! The BQ will not be second but the (far less) Yosemite Sam-like Conservatives! If the Liberal-for-now Red Torys of Ontario are giving the CPC a good hard second (and third and fourth) look then Westmounters will be following suit. It's not going to be close, but if we're saying places like St Paul's are TCTC then the CPC should be looking at about 10K votes. The "Ville Marie" portion of this riding (basically downtown Montreal) is sparsly populated compaired to Westmount, but the parts that are populated are mostly well to do like Westmount (just less "British").
18 01 06 Telso
I was at the all candidates debate Monday, and I think the race is for second, not third. Robillard was full of usual fluff but should breeze through, although I'm going to bet only with a plurality, just missing the majority. But what about second? O'Sullivan may have been a municipal politician the last four years in Ville-Marie, but in November she went from incumbent to fourth (last) with only 11% (albeit voter turnout is low in municipal elections). She won't get much support in Westmount or the mostly NDG crowd, as they bombared her with questions on So-Con policies (Iraq, SSM, environment, etc.), ignoring economic policy questions (remember, these are mostly upper-middle class baby boomers who are much more left-wing than right-wing). The Westmount Examiner's review of the debate shows most of her answers implied she'd be a "yes-woman" to Harper and caucus ( http://www.westmountexaminer.com/pages/article.php?noArticle=14160 ). She's even one of the few Quebec candidates to get the support of Vote Marriage Canada, the anti-SSM group, who mostly didn't support any candidates in Quebec ridings. SSM isn't an issue in Montreal--unless the candidate is against it.
The Bloc will get some votes in Old Montreal, but that's not likely to change from last election, unless it gets worse, because the candidate is a young and inexperienced U of M student who stumbled through most of her presentation. The Green candidate had a wonderful speech, but couldn't answer even the softball questions.
The star of the night in the crowd's mind was probably the NDP candidate, who although winging it on his speech, answered a lot of questions honestly (at least more than the others). Steedman got lots of clapping, almost outshining Robillard's, which came from her many volunteers standing at the back.
Then again, most people don't go to the all candidates meeting, and many Montrealers choose their vote based on the party. Even though Robillard should win hands down, watch the NDP vying for second (~15%) with the Bloc, with the Conservative candidate only being close if Harper can get Quebec voters *inside* Montreal.
17 01 06 El Suavé
Apparently, before the election, the NDP considered this riding, over every other riding in the montreal area, to be the most winable. 1. Steedman is very strong candidate with a bright future in federal politics and, 2. much of the riding is found downtown and in NDG, areas which conceivably could go NDP in the future. WEstmount, of course will never, ever go NDP. Unfortunately for them, however, this is not their year. This stays Liberal, without a doubt.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
1. Liberal 2. Bloc. The interesting position is third. The Green vote is high in this riding and that vote is rising (although not in Quebec in general, it probably will rise in Montreal where there are free Liberal votes floating around). So any of Conservatives, NDP and Green might finish third. It's by no means certain who will become the federalists' alternative in Quebec, the Bloc talks way more like the NDP and the Greens than like the Conservatives, and they do their polling. So this riding might be a clue to those future directions and what would start to happen in Quebec under electoral reforms. Which Harper would have to put in place, in order to get a seat in Quebec. He's not getting one this time.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
1. Liberal 2. Bloc. The interesting position is third. The Green vote is high in this riding and that vote is rising (although not in Quebec in general, it probably will rise in Montreal where there are free Liberal votes floating around). So any of Conservatives, NDP and Green might finish third.
31 12 05 Bear Without Ape
The CPC may come second in Westmount, but when that second place is about 20% of the popular vote, then really second is a very moot point. Solid Liberal hold...for at least the 2006 election.
28 11 05 syllap
I would just like to say to Bear and Ape that the PC's finished second in the Westmount part even with Harper as leader, I am not saying the Liberal will lose, But Robillard as president of Treasury Board had to know about ADSCAM, she is either incompetent if she signs checks not knowing what they were, or lying through her teeth if she's telling she knew nothing about it. Westmounters like downtowners will believe the second part, this might very well be her last campaign, former city councillor Louise O'Sullivan is running for the PC's, so Tories who voted for others last time might me more inclined to return to their natural roots.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
Many people may dislike Robillard but she will win easily. Rich, English Westmount will vote Liberal and nothing else. The downtown portion could potentially vote BQ, but there are too many non-francophones in the downtown area for that to likely happen. To contradict Syllap's comments, Westmounters are way too progressive to vote for the Conservatives. If the party was run by People like Belinda or Mike Harris, then they could vote Conservative. The problem is the CPC is run by too many western "Yosemite Sam types" (to quote a Westmounter we know) for anyone here to take seriously. As for the NDP...not only is this Quebec, this is Quebec with money. READ: NO CHANCE.
12 05 05 sylllap
Although the Liberals are ahead, all the allegations about people close to Robillard in Adscam, might drive enough angry voters to the NDP and the PC's, or even worse, stay home, the Westmount part would turn Tory and the Ville-Marie part BLOC and NDP, a bit early to predit although tradition is with the Liberals...
12 05 05 M. Lunn
This is generally a strong federalist riding. I believe McGill and Concordia University are both located here as well as this is the business district and business people generally go liberal or conservative and since the conservatives are a non-factor in Quebec, that means they will go liberal. Besides Lucienne Robilliard is the liberal national campaign chair and I doubt she would have taken the position if she didn't feel her riding was safe. It will be closer than last time, but the liberals will still take it by 10-20 points.
08 05 05 Nick Boragina
This is one of only 8 ridings in the province that will go Liberal. Robillard was (and is?) a cabinet minister, as well this riding has a long history of voting Liberal. Regardless of Gomery, the Liberals will win here.
03 05 05 JFB
Comté historiquement libéral. Les libéraux perdront sans doute des voix au profit du NPD et des Conservateurs, mais ce ne sera pas suffisant pour faire passer le Bloc. Victoire des Libéraux.
04 05 05 Neal
This seat is one of the six safest for the Liberals...and unfortunately will contribute nothing toward the rebuilding process of that neleaguered party, given that the MP is Lucienne Robillard, IMHO one of the most useless elite establishment MPs in the house.
We can always hope for a miracle so as to flush out some of the Chretien/Martin inner circle so that soem of the better people in the Liberal party (confined to the backbenches in recent years)can emerge.

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