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11:14 PM 05/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Carol Hughes
Sarah Hutchinson
First Peoples National
Will Morin
Donald Milton Polmateer
Brent St. Denis
Ian West

Brent St. Denis

2004 Result/Résultats:
Brent St. Denis
Carol Hughes
Blaine Armstrong
Lindsay Killen

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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12 01 05 North of French River
I think its time to move this riding to the TC column. If the current poll numbers hold, or as I expect, get worse for the Liberals then St.Denis may be the first Liberal to lose here since 1930.
Hughes, as a second time NDP candidate who did quite respectably last time, has better name recognition and a much improved team on the ground this campaign. The Conservatives are the wild card this time. West,while an attractive candidate and better debater and speaker than both St.Denis and Hughes is a parachute. Last time the Conservatives ran a fairly distant 3rd with Manitoulin lawyer Blaine Armstrong, and many of the CP faithful were quite disapointed and discouraged with the results. The reality is that this time they could not find a local candidate and had to ask the Central Party to recruit outside. It seems West's best shot at a history in the riding is that his Grandparents once had a cottage here.All that being said, Im not certain just how much of a factor the "parachute" tag will have. Its possible that core CP vote will hold and the swing to the CP in Ontario might push some disaffected Liberals that way. First Nation electors could play a big factor in this riding if they go and vote. Most of the FN leadership is Liberal and they often deliver solid Liberal percentages but low turnout. There is a non partisan advertising camaign going on to encourage FN to vote. If it increases voter turn out then that helps St.Denis.
Right now I'd say its St.Denis 34 %, Hughes 34 %,West 29 %, Hutchinson 3%.
This is a riding to watch on Jan 23rd. Most Northern Ontario ridings are in play this election, and the Liberals could easily be reduced to just Commuzzi and Marleau... or the whole region could send back exactly the same results as 04....
26 12 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this to the Liberal column. This riding is a pretty large riding and in rural Northern Ontario people often vote more for person than party. It is true the NDP and Conservatives have their pockets of support, but I believe Brent St. Denis personal popularity as well as the fact he can win at both the North and South ends of the riding while the NDP is strongest in the North and Tories in the South, should be enough to ensure he holds this. The NDP really hasn't gained much in Northern Ontario since last election.
24 12 05 A.S.
Re the addition of Kapuskasing "making things more interesting", it actually hurt the Tories more than it hurt the Liberals (or helped the NDP). Even w/o Kap, Mike Pearson's old roost would have been competitive; just another case where frontier-populist issues like sagging resource-town economy and the gun registry have blurred the hitherto-assumed Liberal electoral safety in the far north. (Plus, maybe, some echo-effect from the present Northern-leveraged provincial NDP leadership.) While Brent St. Denis may be "trying harder", no Ontario seat where the NDP came within 10 points of winning is a guaranteed Liberal slam dunk--especially now that two of its neighbours are NDP, too...
20 12 05 shizzle
no chance of the NDP here.. even though she came close last time, its because she worked hard. This time, we are going on week four of the election and she still hasn't been up north yet.. she has only been in, and around the Elliot Lake area.. the majority of the population lives elsewhere.. ex, Kap, Hearts, Wawa...etc.. Brent has been through all of these town at least 3 times now.
the ndp have set up a automated phone serve, that automaticly phones people. $People are finding this very, very annoying and it is costing her votes. No one has been impressed by these phone calls.
As for the bilingual issue, brent has been working on his french and can now, and people see him practising it. The are impressed by the fact that he is learning for his constituants...
16 12 05 jstemarie
Carol Hughes is bilingual and came very close in the last election with very limited resources. My money is on the NDP!
09 12 05 estella
St. Denis, hands down. He's been working hard in the Highway 11 corridor, and won over many of his new constituents by forcing the government to reverse its budget decision to close the Kapuskasing Experimental Farm. He is a hardworking riding MP who spends time travelling from town to town in the riding -- even when there is no campaign going on: a rarity these days, it seems. He is well-respected by municipal and aboriginal leaders, and his traditional strength in the Elliot Lake-Blind River region, one of the larger population centres in the riding, will help him carry it easiily.
06 12 05 DL
The incumbent has made significant inroads in the relatively new northern addition to the riding and has secured his reputation as a tireless MP and campaigner. Apparently he touched-down in Kapuskasing a few hours after the writ was dropped and hasn't slowed down since! To the best of my knowledge, his team had spanned the entire riding before his opponents were even nominated. Locals and local leaders see his hard work... looks like it may pay off once again.
30 11 05 B S
Brent is a strong candidate who is well known throughout the riding for doing good constituency work. He's got the resources, and there's no word on possible candidates from the Conservatives or NDP (but the Greens have a candidate...).
The natural demographics of the riding make it hard for any other party to win it.
14 09 05
St Denis will take this one hands down... the NDP still havent nominated a candidate, carol hughes has no intentions to run again.. and the conservatives.. well, they just never had a chance in the first place
LIB 49 NDP 32 CPC 17 Other 2
13 09 05 Yoda
It would seem that a bilingual Conservative candidate could steal 3,000 votes from the Liberals, thereby making it a three-way race.
29 05 05 The Observer
This Liberal prediction may be premature. Brent St. Denis has been a good MP for the riding, but he's facing a growing challenge from the left. The NDP placed a strong second last time, and also improved their showing in the last provincial election. They can't be dismissed, even if the party isn't actively targeting the riding. The Tories will likely nominate Terry McCutcheon, who finished a weak third in the 2003 provincial contest. He can't win, and some Liberal voters may turn to the NDP if they realize a strategic vote isn't needed.
25 05 05 PY
This is only in the "too close to call" category since Kapuskasking was added to the riding, which certainly made things a bit more interesting last year. Liberal support is otherwise still strong through the Blind River-Elliot Lake-Espanola corridor, and it should be there on Manitoulin Island also. Having been born and raised in Espanola myself, it's hard for me to see the NDP break through. Brent St. Denis by at least 2500.
16 05 05 Craig
The Liberal machine is falling apart up here, and it will be the NDP there to take advantage, especially considering they made it close last time. Carol Hughes should be able to unseat Brent St. Denis if she runs again, with a strong union and First Nations presence. The Conservatives should do well here as well in the southern part, playing on gun and social issues, but they are too far behind to pick this seat up. It may turn into a 3-way race though if the polls tighten up. Predicted results: NDP 36%, LIB 30%, CPC 29%, GRN 5%.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is not a safe liberal seat. The NDP had a strong second place showing and with the liberal numbers down in Ontario (even with the recent rebounds), this riding could go NDP. It will probably still liberal, but it is far from a sure thing.
03 05 05 DocDee
A two way race between incumbent Lib Brent St.Denis and likely NDP rerun of Carol Hughes. Conservatives polled less than 23 % last time for poor third place finish. This riding has not defeated an incumbent either federally or provincially for a very very long time. Predict Liberal win by 1500 votes.

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