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11:31 AM 21/01/2006

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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Patrick Brown
Peter Bursztyn
Aileen Carroll
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins

Hon. Aileen Carroll

2004 Result/Résultats:
Aileen Carroll
Patrick Brown
Peter Bursztyn
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins

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19 01 06 Cpt. Criteria
l'il Patty Brown won't be riding any polls to the H of C. The Barrie Advance has declared support of Carroll, local radio has backed her almost from go (and not just cuz they think Patrick is slimey), and even the Examiner roasted Brown for turning down 2 televised debates. This one was going to be close, but since Brown and his party have stalled, I don't think he's got a hope left. He'll be beaten by the bounce.
18 01 06 York Regin Godfather
Guys lets gets real. One, the riding is Provincial PC, second elected only reform MP in Ontario and final last time internal fights within Brown campaign cost the election when it should have been a victory (less than 2%). This time party is riding high in the polls (outside GTA 416& 905) by more than 8% in 705 ontario. Remember Brown lost by 2% when party was over 10% behind. It will be a clear Brown victory, and advance polls are up massively, never a good for the incumbent Caroll. But hey she's got a good pension.
16 01 06 Mike C
Brown has ostracized a large portion of his tight-line backers by flip-flopping on zoning issues regarding Park Place (formerly Molson Park). That, when added to his flip-flop on the smoking ban, has shown the voters of Barrie that Brown is still the untrustworthy, overly ambitious kid he was last time. Barrie's business community is very tight. The people who turn against Brown will use their influence to turn others against him as well. I believe the sun is setting Patty's political carrer.
16 01 06 Dan
CPAC polls have the Grits still ahead in Ontario and still show very high numbers for the undecided constituency. Brown's local profile has been hurt by flip flops and refusal of national debates. Even the Tory-backed local press slammed him for that. Clearly his party has him on a short leash after the damage he did in the 2004 debates. I think his refusal to accept looks worse to voters than actually accepting and then tanking. Carroll has a greatly improved national profile as 2005 was a year of many disastres and her response to them has been widely praised. The new residents of Barrie will now know her name which will weigh heavily at the polls in the 'burbs this time.
13 01 06 york region godfather
Brown will win this riding by over +2000 votes, a turn around of +4000 votes. There are no internal fights in Brown's campaign this time. Debates - what other poster forget to mention is that Caroll passed on 3 debates herself, but liberals & NDPs are always holier than others. Green vote will go up. Also this time no "Mykky the knife" here, that is why Brown has been able to identify 7000 more supporters this time. Campaign manager is doing his job (ie professionally) something that wasn't there last time. Also Carroll's old election team is in Etobicoke-Lakeshore with the so-called superstar.
12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Amazingly a hold. Bad blood between red Tories and Reformers will be at a peak on January 23 especially as Stronach gets strutted out to do more credible Liberal attack ads (I can't see the ones presently running lasting more than a week, they are being widely panned). The Green vote was very high in this election and it will be lower this time around due to terrible leadership in that party, a serious internal governance split, and Erich Jacoby-Hawkins being identified with the faction that wants Jim Harris out and so not motivated to do much to increase the Green vote this time 'round.
11 01 06 George Hunter
OK, I would have said it's too close to call a week ago. But Patty B has now abstained from a SECOND debate. TVO offered to come to Barrie to broadcast the debate that CBC couldn't - but Patrick said 'hells no'.
The story that should never have been now has had about 5 days of radio play, several newspaper articles and as recently as yesterday, a newspaper editorial.
Looks like Mr Brown will continue to represent Barrie's Ward 3 for the foreseeable future.
11 01 06 Steve G
It is lights out for Aileen Carroll, folks. If it wasn't evident beforehand, it certainly is now with the Liberals' ad about "soldiers with guns" invading the cities of Canada if Harper gets in. CFB Borden is, of course, located in Simcoe County and Barrie is home to many military veterans, reservists, and their families. Such a blatant attempt to disparage and smear our armed forces will not go unnoticed. Couple that with a strong Conservative campaign, Paul Martin's relatively weak performance in the second set of debates, and Patrick Brown's greatly improved candidacy as compared with 2004, and I don't even think Barrie will be close.
Prediction: CPC 50%, Lib 34%, NDP 12%, Green and others 4%
06 01 06 A. Robertson
It's not a rumour anymore!! It's all over the Examiner and it looks good on Brown!! I love it and so will the people of Barrie. Patrick Brown is too afraid to debate Aileen again on a nationally televized event - and so he should be! He was an absolute embarrassment last time round. No wonder neither he nor his handlers want Barrie and the rest of the country to see just how how inept he is. The people of Barrie should know - and now they will as a result of the Examiner article - why Patrick Brown should and will lose this election!
04 01 06 Eliza
It may be a squeaker but Aileen Carroll is poised to take her fourth term. Barrie voters are not dumb, Patrick Brown makes issues and promises out of matters that are provincial jurisdiction. He is completely aligned with the old Reformers (Hamilton and Ainsworth - top supports). There's a rumour going around that he was approached by CBC to do a Town Hall but his handlers won't let him because of his performance in 2004 on Cross Country check up.
29 12 05 James Bond
As much as I loathe Brown (see my prediction & comments from the Spring), he's managed to avoid controversy during the first half of the campaign and hasn't been the festering liability that he was last time around.
The Tories seem to be dominating the sign war which, while not always reflective of popular opinion, is indiciative of motivated votes. The national campaign has been strong, and there does not appear to be any great fear or loathing of the CPC amongst the general public. Even my wife is thinking about voting Tory (despite, not because of, the local candidate).
There's still lots of time for him to blow it but, if his handlers can continue to keep him in his tiny perfect bubble, I think that Brown is poised to knock the Mediocre Ms Carroll off of her cabinet pedastol.
21 12 05 a hughes
Aileen Carrol is a weak hardly-cabinet minister. She is readily beatable if Barrie Conservatives want her gone. Sick thing is, many would rather see Brown go down! If people like JMR would put their efforts to changing nomination rules or otherwise contributing to the growth of the party, they would get over the fact that the other "potential candidates" are merely that. Once the nomination battle ends, the war against Liberals should have started. Sore losers do not a strong party make. If Brown loses this one, no doubt Liberals will control this riding for the next 8 years at least.
19 12 05 JMR
The idea that there is reconciliation in the ranks of the local Conservative Party is laughable....I say that as a good Tory. This riding will not go Conservative until Mr. Brown realizes he can't get over this hump. At any rate, I suspect this is Brown's last kick at the can. Any support he does have now within the Party locally will disappear after he loses this election in favour of the several other good potential candidates who have fallen to Brown's "Skids and Kids" nomination strategies the last two times. Anyone else could have beaten Carroll last time. He is his own worst enemy. Aileen is just getting started on him!
26 12 05 MK
Essentially in Barrie I think the election of a particular candidate will rise and fall on who gets out their vote. Patrick Brown has alienated the PC base here but many people feel uneasy voting Liberal again, even if Aileen Carrol has been a trusted and steady community advocate for years. Otherwise voters are left with the traditional protest vote (NDP) or the alternative protest vote (Green). I haven't seen too many signs from anybody yet. Gee I wonder if that has to do with the fact that we don't really care about elections right now? Televised debate on a Friday night, don't make me laugh!!
15 12 05 andrew hughes
The issue of Patrick Brown not resigning his council seat is a non-starter. If Barrie voters were outraged by this 'straddling', they would seek to change the rules! But thus far, no popular backlash has prompted same.
I hear that there has been some reconciliation within the ranks of Barrie's conservatives. Seems that they are moving to elect a Conservative as it is high time they did. Finally, internal politicking is giving way to the best interests of the party. This is a HUGE move. One that will definitely shape and control the election in Barrie.
14 12 05 barrie dude
This is a conservative riding. Let's remember that the only Ontario Reform MP ever, was elected in Barrie (Simcoe-Centre).
Four wins on the trot for a Liberal MP in this area would probably be a record, so unless the Conservative campaign craters like in the last two weeks of the 2004 campaign, this one should go Conservative. It will be close (she's a junior cabinet minister, after all), but Brown should win.
Last election, the Ontario split was 45-31. If it's closer than 8 points this time around, mark it a guaranteed Conservative win.
14 12 05 former PC youth
Barrie’s campaigns have always been local and tame, even back in Ed Harper’s time, until 2004.
With his extensive national party connections, Patrick Brown brought in top-notch Harris-Tory operatives to run a campaign that was as slick and professional (i.e. aggressive and dirty) as some of the most competitive provincial PC campaigns in Toronto.
Aileen Carroll panicked last time and hired two infamously aggressive young operatives (both with leadership campaign credentials. And coincidentally, both are on Michael Ignatieff’s campaign this round.) from Toronto to manager her campaign. Aileen took on Patrick’s big city campaign tactics blow by blow, and barely pulled out a squeaker.
With nothing better to do in Toronto, the hard-line Tiny Tory organizers will probably be happy to help Patrick again. I doubt Aileen will be able to get the same helps (they have more competitive fights in GTA to work on).
07 12 05 barrie guy
Patrick Brown's refusal to take a leave of absence from Council is the latest in a series of indiscretions (prior to that it was his exorbitant cell phone bills). Most people feel it would be appropriate for MPP's and MLA's to resign their council seats, as Olivia Chow did in Toronto. These decisions seem to really turn off Barrie voters, and push them to Carroll even if they’d naturally align with the Conservatives. It will likely be his downfall again.
06 12 05 quasar
Brown, with a law degree under his belt, seems to be running a good campaign, and considering his good results last time against an incumbent cabinet minister, he might be able tot ake this.
02 12 05 Andy
I don't think the Liberal friendly posts for this riding are being fair to Mr. Brown. I think the voters are more familiar with Mr. Brown and have had lots of opportunity to take the time to get to know him. He's done quite a bit for the City of Barrie as a Councillor. In Barrie, Patrick Brown is a great young man and if Harper can keep his nose clean, I believe that people will be giving Brown the chance of serving them as MP this time around.
02 12 05 ryan
Patrick brown has a very good chance of winning this seat this time. he almost won last time. the riding is a provincial conservative stronghold and that should help. the liberals appear to be running a very weak campaign in simcoe county in general only have 1 incumbent now. his experience as a city councilor will also help.
30 11 05 Nancy Hunt
Aileen Carroll is the winner here. Patrick Brown is not only a terribly ineffective, inexperienced, inarticulate candidate, his candidacy has pushed numerous old time conservatives out of the Conservative Party in Barrie. These people want nothing to do with Patrick Brown. They will in fact be supporting Ms. Carroll both financially and generally in respect of the election.
29 11 05 ahughes
Patrick Brown is getting better! He has grown up with Barrie, and is poised to take Parliament. Barrie will be better for it. You can hear the desperate Liberal slander, the criticism of his career path (being a student leader, city counsellor, and law student while maintaining a network that makes members of his own party scream!)
If Barrie Conservatives can get their sh*t together and support their candidate--the one elected under their own rules--then they should finally get a voice in Parliament. Conservatives gotta focus on his strengths: young, half decent looking, articulate, and dedicated. He will be shaped by the party. If the old guard doesn't try to knock him out.
29 11 05 Alsadius
This one's a rematch in which essentially nothing has changed at the local level - nobody's really going to change their opinion of the candidates much, because neither has really done a whole lot that could change them. So, it comes down to what the wider shifts in support are. In the last poll I saw, the Libs are down 7% in Ontario from the last election, and the Tories are up 4%. An 11% swing is way more than you need to swamp out a 1300-vote difference, so, barring a Conservative meltdown, Brown will beat Carroll. It won't be a landslide(unless the Tories do well enough on the campaign to win a national majority or something), and it's up in the air if the Tories follow their usual habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but Conservative seems the most likely here.
29 11 05 Michael
Brandon wanted to blame the campaign manager a couple of posts for Patrick's loss, others have blamed the outside influence (ie his team wasn't home grown in Barrie), some still blame Patrick himself. You're all wrong.
If you look nationally the CPC tanked in the last week of the campiagn. Before that Partick, his campaign manager, his appointed team from outside the riding had a win on their hands.
If the CPC can keep their train on the tracks for the entire race Patrick has a chance at this. The Liberal's have an advantage in that a sitting member's communication budget allows for a lot pre election ads. (as those in Barrie can certainly verify from there overflowing mail boxes).
Bottem line - Patrick by 1000 if the NDP member doesn't leave on vacation during the campaign again, the green party keeps its impressive candidate and the CPC doesn't fall off like they did last time.
27 11 05 George J Hunter
I live and Barrie, and I can tell you that the more Patrick Brown leaves his house, the more votes Aileen Carroll gets.
His second election will introduce him to more voters, and therefore even more voters will be turned off.
Carroll will take this by a couple thousand more than last time.
11 10 05 Brandon
Patrick was not a "weak" candidate that will automatically lose him the campaign. He picked a bad campaign manager. Anyways, current polling is showing a Tory win here. And Gomery hasn't even reported yet.
11 10 05 A.S.
The 2004 seat "made" by Cross-Country Checkup. Patrick Brown was set to take Barrie, until he was highlighted on national TV as exactly the kind of insufferably puff-chested young Tory twerp everyone loves to hate--which turned him into the "oops, wasn't I supposed to win this" Olivia Chow of the Right. (Still, the fact that he's reoffering needn't be a disaster.) On a quirkier note, cutting off a ponytail live on national television earned the Green candidate the hearts of constituents and one of the party's most unexpectedly high tallies in Ontario. Aileen Carroll survived, and with the kind of cabinet mileage she's been getting she could easily rally up the troops for further pundit-defying skin-of-teeth victories--the Anne McLellan of Mike Harris country?
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Had the Conservatives chosen anyone other than Patrick Brown, they probably could have won this, whereas now I think Aileen Carroll just might hold the riding. However, despite Patrick Brown's problems it was still really close last time so even a small shift from the liberals to NDP could cost Aileen Carroll her seat. Also the Conservatives will likely focus on only about 20 ridings they think are winnable in Ontario rather than all the ridings so if they put all their resources into winnable ones while ignore the non-winnable ones, they could easily pick up several seats without increasing their share of the popular vote. This was the tactic used by the Alberta Liberals in the last provincial election as well as the Conservatives in Britain who in both cases won considerably more seats without increasing their total vote share by much.
20 07 05 Initial
The morally challenged Patrick Brown has sewn this one up for Carroll, yet again! Witness the recent revelation in the Barrie Advance that Patrick's cell phone bill to the city was was $2,801 (almost double the next highest) from just January to May! What the hell??
He's also again claiming to be a lawyer in Barrie (witness the City Hall report card in the local paper), when he is actually an articling student in Brampton. Barrie is not interested in a politician who makes Quebec Liberals look saint-like.
19 07 05 Trevor
It is an understatement to say Patrick Brown had a bad debut in the last election, but the people writing him off this time would be well advised to check their arrogance. Patrick Brown and the people around him might have learned a thing or two the last time out. It was a close election. The Conservative Party will put whatever they can into gaining this winnable seat this time, just like the Liberals did last election to save it. To make matters worse this time for the Liberals, Aileen Carroll has been inconsequential as a minister. The only impression she made in the past year was with her embarrassing handling (or should I say non-handling) of the tsunami issue. She stayed on the beach in Brazil instead of returning promptly to Ottawa, while thousands of people drowned or lost their homes and livelihood in South Asia. If she is still in Cabinet when the next election roles around, she will be one of the first ministers to go down to defeat on election night.
29 05 05 Christopher J. Currie
The Tories would have taken Barrie last time, if they had nominated a decent candidate. Since Patrick Brown is running again, look for Carroll to win re-election -- possibly by a greater margin than before.
25 05 05 Karen M.
What a shame when Conservatives could have made so much headway during the next election, that a character like Patrick Brown would actually get the nomination. I heard an independent is considering running. An independent Conservative who is not Liberal and not Patrick Brown just might make it.
22 05 05 Brandon
Patrick Brown won the nomination again.
Now that there will not be a summer election, that leaves 2 full summers since the last election, for West Barrie to be developed with new suburbs, The new parts of Barrie were all won by Patrick last time and by his uncle Joe Tascona, the PC MPP, the provincial election before. Way too many Tories moving to Barrie for Ms. Carroll's 1,000 vote squeaker to be repeated. Game over for Aileen.
17 05 05 James Bond
Do Conservatives in Barrie secretly want Aileen Carroll to get re-elected?
How else can you explain letting the discredited Patrick Brown bus in college kids and skateboard punks (again) to steal the nomination from real party members?
In the year since the last election, the local Conservatives have not held a SINGLE fundraiser to address the mess left by Brown's last campaign (no, I'm not referring to the mess of lawn signs that Brown left around the city - although perhaps I should be). Not one!
You can't fight an election without money - the Barrie CPC has none.
You can't fight an election without REAL support from local party workers. All three of the riding's former MPs lined up against him. More pointedly, (at the nomination meeting) he picked up less than 20% of the votes from the third and fourth place candidates - what does that say about how his own party sees him? And this was in a process that HIS people has set-up so that he couldn't lose!
Brown is a political careerist who puts his own needs first, those of his outside handlers and benefactors next and, maybe - just maybe - the needs of his party third. Where the rest of us factor in is somewhat less clear. Come to think of it, he'd make a great Quebec Liberal!
16 05 05 Grace Madison
Well I am and have always been a conservative - but alas the teenie boppers came out again waving their flags this past Saturday. So the rein of the Liberal member in Barrie will continue as Patrick Brown has already demonstrated he cannot win against Aileen Carroll. Mr. Brown claims he should have won last year - YOU ARE RIGHT ...by a land slide. Instead the liberal laughed at him on National TV and walked back into her office - he is such a disappointment and has gained no trust of anyone in Barrie. So once again all he has demonstrated is how he can buy votes in a nomination......perhaps he should work on graduating and come back when he is done school.
16 05 05
If Peter Bursztyn runs for the NDP even their supporters will remember that he took off three days before last June's election for a family vacation. The soft NDP vote goes to Carroll and the divide in the local Conservative Party, evidenced by the fact it took three ballots to settle on Brown, will slide some of his support to Carroll. It won't be a cake walk, but it will be a win for Aileen Carroll.
16 05 05 Mike
Thank-you Barrie Conservatives for giving the Liberals a better shot at winning the Barrie riding again by nominating the "Lawyer" Patrick Brown. What are you people crazy, he is the only reason why you lost last time. By the way is he officially a lawyer this election.
16 05 05 R.W.M.
I am a good conservative and was disgusted to see that "Patty" was up to his shenanigans again at the CPC nomination. No out of town hired guns? If the crew he had at the nomination is any indication, he hasn't learned his lesson at all! I am saddened as the Liberals will win this riding again, our nominated member does not hold the confidence of the majority of true conservatives - but a group of high school students and homeless people are pretty happy. I wonder if it was hard for them to come up with the $10 membership fee to be eligible to vote?!! I am sure they will have lots of fun trying to win the seat, in an effort to win the riding with their bubble gum, hair spray and gameboys - and pay for an election with their allowance. Get out of town Patrick Brown.
16 05 05 Steve G
Patrick Brown, a young candidate whose inexperience was painfully obvious, came within 2000 votes of winning last year against popular veteran MP Aileen Carroll - even though the Liberals creamed the Tories by 14 points (45%-31%) in the province as a whole. This year, I'm predicting the Liberals will beat the Tories in Ontario but only by about 5 or 6 points, as opposed to 14. In this scenario, the Tories will pick up at least 10-12 additional seats in the province on top of the 24 they currently hold, and Barrie will be one of them.
10 05 05 York Region Godfather
If Patrick Brown win his nomination on Sunday May 14th and it looks likely, then he will defeat Aileen Carroll. Patty has learned from his last election - no outside hired guns, it hurt him last time. It will be a Barrie First Campaign team and will incorporate both old time CA's and PC's. Nothing like a lost to make you wake up and smell the coffee(I know Mr. Brown doesn't drink it but he can smell it). No GO train Station (promises, promises), shortage of local doctors, Same Sex...the list goes on. Patty Brown wins.
09 05 05 The Jackal
This is going to be tough one to call. In the past is has look like an ideal Conservative pickup but Ms. Carroll has managed to pull through not to mention she is in cabinet now. The CPC will have to work hard to win this but for now I say Aileen Carroll win this by a margin of 100 to 200 votes.
08 05 05 Craig
Barrie may be growing very fast, but unlike in most of the inner GTA, most of those new developments are middle-class, religious, socially conservative families which fits in well with the traditional Simcoe folks. Aileen Carroll barely hung on last time and by supporting gay marriage she should be defeated this time around. It wouldn't really matter if it is Patrick Brown or a new CPC candidate. Predicted results: CPC 47%, LIB 34%, NDP 12%, GRN 6%, others 1%.
06 05 05
The greatest favour Conservatives could do for Aileen Carroll is to nominate Patrick Brown again.
06 05 05 Pete Smith
Liberal if Patrick Brown is running again.
Conservative if they can find a real candidate.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
Considering the Conservatives had a strong second place showing and they had a weak candidate, I would give the Conservatives an edge (liberals were 14 points ahead in Ontario, now only 6 points). I think Aileen Carroll and Tony Ianno are probably the two cabinet ministers in Ontario most likely to lose their seats come election day. The Liberals can still win this, but they will need a 10 point lead in Ontario since this is generally a conservative area. Also the Conservatives got 40% so an slight increase in the NDP vote could give this to the Conservatives without gaining a single additional vote.
02 05 05 Brandon
Barrie came within just over 1,000 votes of a CPC victory last time. This was against Grit Cabinet Minister Aileen Carroll. Patrick Brown swept the new suburbs and Carroll won the aparentment buildings in the downtown core. More suburbs have been built during the year. Barrie is also socially conservative and doesn't support same-sex marriage, but Carroll voted in favour of it. The Tories are up in the polls and the Liberals are down, overall. This riding is turning blue on election night.

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