Update/Mise à jour:
11:20 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:11 PM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Rick Goldring
David Laird
Paddy Torsney
Mike Wallace

Hon. Paddy Torsney

2004 Result/Résultats:
Paddy Torsney
Mike Wallace
David Carter Laird
Angela Reid
John Herman Wubs

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 BillyG
Burlington is indeed hard to move and tends to stick with the tried and true, so I'm inclined to agree with Dave, while acknowledging possible vote splitting on the left. Paddy's image as a listener and hard worker on behalf of constituents could keep her in office. On the other hand, voters wishing to punish the Liberals may, as Layton requested, "lend" (sort of) the NDP enough votes to affect the outcome. Such voters are usually strategic, however, and I think if things are still looking dire for Martin by the weekend we'll see a 2004 type swing back to the Liberals to try to prevent a Conservative majority. Paddy by a nose.
15 01 06 Dave
I think it is time to put this one back in the Liberal column. Despite the "polls" (which if 2004 is any indication, we shouldn't read that much into them), Burlington has a unique history of re-electing incumbents. This historic fact should outweigh all other issues in the campaign. To those who argue that the national campaign polling numbers are an indication of what is going to happen, I remind you that in the provincial election when the polls showed Cam Jackson's loss to the changing "red-tide" that the voters of Burlington kept the incumbent - not because he was a conservative but because he is well liked by Burlington residents. And the same goes for Paddy. This isn't a partisan city or a riding that will want to hope on the band wagon. Burlington does not expect to elect influential cabinet ministers but expects to elect dedicated community servants. It might be closer than last election but I cannnot see this one changing colours. Time to change this from TCTC to incumbent Liberal.
13 01 05 MD
I respectfully disagree with an earlier contributor's comment that Burlington is not as conservative as it once was. The riding has been solid Tory provincially for decades, and while it has been Liberal federally since 1993, Ms. Torsney won in 1993, 1997 and 2000 largely because of right-wing vote splitting. Yesterday's visit from Prime Minister Martin signals to me that the Liberals know this riding is vulnerable and that they need to galvanize their base, but the PM's coattails just aren't what they used to be, and I'm getting a sense that the Liberal campaign has become "every man/woman for themselves". With Tory support growing in the 905, and assuming there are no major blunders in the national campaign between now and the 23rd, I'll call Burlington as going blue.
07 01 06 First Name Only
With all due respect Mlle. "Hollaback Girl", you seem to have failed to notice Paddy is running against the same "strong" candidate this time around. The difference - and it's a key difference - is the Conservative Party of Canada has gotten their act together on a national level, and it's going to make the difference in swing ridings like Burlington where local CPC candidates were hurt by the national campaign last time around.
06 01 06 Peter K
Paddy should win Burlington again. She's facing the same Conservative opponent on the same issues (really, Gomery is old news.) She's quite likeable although what she has directly achieved for Burlington itself I'm not too sure on. (I only say this because her ads say that she "delivers". Like what?) She surprised with a win last time despite better Conservative momentum in Burlington. Additionally, Burlington just isn't that Conservative as it once was, and the Conservative Party is more conservative than it used it to be.
A few things could trip her up. Depending on how high Conservative numbers are up this time in Ontario this may play into Wallace's hands. If voters are thinking locally, strategic voting may be less of a factor considering that she held on to the riding in the last election when it was widely thought and predicted that Wallace would take it. Facing the same opponent as last time and winning it, more voters may be inclined to mark their ballots NDP or Green. If voters are thinking nationally, then strategic anti-Conservative voting may help Paddy once again.
I predict both Paddy and Wallace will decrease their total vote count at the gain of the NDP, Greens, and those not voting at all. Paddy should, however, win with another 3000-4000 vote victory over Wallace as in the last election. Close but no cigar again, Mike.
31 12 05 Hollaback Girl
It seems like Paddy is counted out in evey election since 1993 but
she keeps on winning. Paddy beat a very strong Conservative in Wallace
last time and facing a lesser candidate in this year's election
it easier. One more point. Nobody seems to notice how Paddy has built
one of the better political machines in this part of Ontario.
29 11 05 Randy
I have to respectfully disagree with Matt. This riding was not as close as many predicted it would be last time and I do not see the tide coming to wash Paddy Torsney out of her seat. The reason: a relatively weak Conservative Candidate. If the Conservatives had supported and nominated Blair Landcaster in this riding (who had the support fo the national campaign) then Burlington would be in a better spot to switch to the Conservatives. The differences between Mike and Paddy are so clear and evident that Burlington voters were unwilling to trust a regressive "local politician" with small views on big issues. Blair would have given Paddy a run for her money, as she would be portrayed as moderate, successful, and be high profile. She would have elevated Burlington to the national level but instead Conservatives went with what didn't work last time. Paddy out-debated, out-campaigned and out-classed Mike last time, and I'm not even a Liberal. Mike cannot count on a great amount of Stephen support but Paddy has name recognition, a strong record and the support of the seniors. I also don't see the polls changing too much unless there are serious gaffes during the campaign. I expect a close result but I also expect smaller Green and NDP support. I strongly believe that Liberal losses in Burlington to the Conservatives will be more than compensated by the voters who will not vote NDP or Green this time around. While Burlington votes Conservative provincially it also has a reputation for supporting its incumbents and sticking with what it knows. I can't see this one going Liberal, even if I want it to.
25 11 05 Matt
This riding was comparatively close last time and considering how enthusiastic Burlington's Conservative membership is (as evidenced by the nomination meeting, for one example) and how dedicated the riding association is, a Conservative victory is much more likely this time around. Wallace has the local name brand and coupled with the work ethic and organization to get the job done.
Additionally, Burlington is one of those ridings that will benefit from incremental shifts in Ontario from Liberal to Conservative support. See this riding as one of those that will be close, but likely change colours on election night.
19 05 05 Craig
Prediction change. Paddy Torsney got a gift again when Mike Wallace got the nomination. It leaves Paddy Torsney to pick up just enough of the social conservatives who are voting on other issues (as they would have nowhere to turn) in addition to her 'normal GTA Liberal' traditional base of support. The result would be a very narrow Liberal hold, less than last time. (The original prediction had a fairly low margin for the Conservatives to begin with) Predicted results: LIB 44%, CPC 40%, NDP 11%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
12 05 05 A.S.
Memo to "Craig": however much you'd like to interpret Crossroads' presence as an indicator that Burlington is the Colorado Springs of Ontario, it ain't quite so. Oh, Burlington's Tory by tradition alright, but it's predominantly white-collar MulroneyThatcherite "Blue Tory", not Red State Republican--and you know how those well-moneyed well-read ChaptersIndigoDifferentDrummer Burlington Tories responded to Harper's united right in '04? Well, in the kinds of affluent polls that stayed PC even through the 90s doldrums, Martin's Liberals were scarily close to being at or even beyond par (this, even though Paddy Torsney's an avowed Chretienite). So Crossroads' presence is relatively incidental to Burlington and its voting patterns. And bear in mind that the Tories offered a more obvious "Crossroads candidate"--David Sweet--in the more obvious Crossroads-friendly seat of AnDunFlamWes next door; only to see that Crossroadsness arguably scuttle what should have been a sure-bet Tory gain (as goeth rural Flamborough, so *not* goeth urban Ancaster, Dundas, Westvale). Heck, even in Burlington, the Canadian Alliance in 2000 tried the extreme-Crossroads tactic by nominating Family Coalition Party founder Don Pennell, which sure must have worked like Kryptonite on the party's Golden Horseshoe chances. Now, you have a point about David Mainse--he's probably the most electable of this lot, if only because his message is more "Billy Graham" universal than Bible-Belt oppressive. But Mike Wallace didn't lose in '04 because he was too moderate; he lost because his party was perceived as too immoderate. And if Burlington decides now's the time to finally jettison its recent default-mode Liberalism and reinstate its fair-and-proper Blueness, it's in response to political corruption, not social corruption. No?
10 05 05
Too close to call. Burlington likes their incumbents (what other explanation get's Scam Jackson re-elected provincially) If the tories run a strong national campaign Paddy is in trouble - If not she will hold on with a slim victory.
09 05 05 Not Non-Partisan
Mike Wallace is going to clobber Patty. 666 members at his nomination tonight. Very enthusiastic and very determined. Wallace took on a tough Blair Lancaster and beat her for the CPC nod. Lancaster is a much better campaigner than Patty.
06 05 05 DN
I agree that this will be a very tight race but I cannot see Ms. Torsney losing the respect of the community that she's built over the past 12 years. Torsney is a constituency-candidate and she's been very involved and active with the community for her entire run. Her stance on same-sex did not hurt her with the seniors last time so don't expect them to make a run for the Conservatives this time. She has a great deal of support that the Conservative predictors on this site forgot about last time. This site predicted the riding going blue last time and they were wrong by 4,000 votes. Expect it to be close, but Paddy Torsney will retain a seat that she's served exceptionally well for so long.
06 05 05 Craig
This is most likely the best chance for a Conservative gain in the suburban 905 area, apart from Whitby-Oshawa (with Jim Flaherty running). The reason is simple: this riding is culturally the most conservative of all the suburban ridings, and Paddy Torsney is not in line with the constituents on issues like gay marriage. The best candidate would be David Mainse, although I haven't heard about him running. Mike Wallace was too moderate and too weak to mobilize the base. Having Crossroads right at the doorstep means a base exists...that's the key in ridings like this! Predicted results: CPC 44%, LIB 38%, NDP 11%, GRN 5%.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a centre-right riding and considering the Conservatives got 38% last time around, I would say they have a very good shot at taking this. However, I was surprised that Paddy Torsney won last time around, so she may pull it off again, but it will not be an easy fight. Certainly having the former Miss Canada ran may help, but that alone won't guarantee a Conservative win, although unlike Peter Kent, this was probably a smart riding to choose since the Conservatives actually have a chance at winning this, whereas they have no chance in St. Paul's.
02 05 05 Brandon
Burlington will be restored to its Conservative Party routes. Provincially it's been Tory forever. Federally it was Tory forever until the vote-split the PC's and the Reform/Alliance. Liberal Paddy Torsney only won by 4,000 last time. Miss Canada 1974 Blair Lancaster may be the candidate here and is being touted as a star candidate by the national media. Torsney is toast.

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