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10:38 AM 16/01/2006

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5:55 PM 12/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Gary Goodyear
Canadian Action
David M. Pelly
Janko Peric
Donna Reid
Gareth White

Gary Goodyear

2004 Result/Résultats:
Gary Goodyear
Janko Peric
Gary Price
Gareth M. White
John G. Gots
John Oprea
Alex W. Gryc

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 DTC
Although Goodyear has the jump on Peric, I wouldn't count Janko out. The provincial Liberals partially reversed their funding decision about the hospital, but whether or not Peric had any influence is anyones guess. The CAW local has also thrown their support behind Peric, so I think this one is still too close.
13 01 06 Ben Carleton
This riding will probably go Conservative. What with Gary being a more articulate, more visible MP, and the overall Conservative tide throughout Southwestern Ontario, my vote goes for the Conservatives. Peric was well-liked while he was in office, but people don't like his boss (Martin) and he isn't a strong enough candidate to win on his own. The NDP are the spoiler in the Liberal campaign, and look to do the same this time around.
12 01 06 O.J. Simpson
If it was not for Mr. Harper’s military spending promise in the last election, Janko would have won easily last time. (Check out the special ballot and advance poll results for Cambridge - you know some of these guys are in the military or have family that is)
This riding was up for grabs when the Liberal’s were ahead in the polls. Janko is an excellent local politician. Unfortunately for him, the Provincial Liberals have not done him any favours by overlooking Cambridge in hospital funding situation and by running a weak candidate provincially in the last election. The federal Liberals did not do him any favours during his 11 years in office by not giving him a high profile position. He did not do himself any favours by not working on his oral communication skills. All of these factors, combined with the Liberals now behind in the polls, and a polished Conservative candidate will mean another loss by Mr. Peric. His only hope is for the NDP to throw their support behind him, like the CAW did. If I were him, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Prediction – Another narrow Conservative victory but this time by more votes.
12 01 06 LJ Amundsen
Gareth White running again is very strange given that he is totally opposed to everything Jim Harris says or does. Count on that vote to be cut in half. Most of those votes will go Liberal but that won't be enough to save this seat, a Conservative incumbent will have an easy ride here given the collapse of the Liberal campaign, and Harper's image breakthrough in Quebec.
11 01 06 Rob W
The local barbershop poll...
"I started the poll on Nov. 30," he said. "NDP has three. Liberals has 54. Conservatives have 129."
Katsorov has been a fixture in downtown Cambridge for more than 25 years, where he's known as Danny the Barber.
(an excerpt from the CBC website.)
10 01 06 JF
Gary Price, the 2004 NDP candidate, was a popular former city council member. His departure will decrease the NDP in 2006. If those centre and left-leaning voters return to the Liberals it will be the end for Goodyear.
02 12 05 PFR
Sorry JF, but Dr. Gary Goodyear is still the canadiate to beat in Cambridge who showed in 2004 that they were tired of having a weak Member of Parliament. Janko Peric's save the hospital stunt did him no favours and only caused the residents of Cambridge to get even more angry at the Liberals.
As for JF's claim that Cambridge residents do not want a conservative representative, then why were the provincial Liberals unable to defeat Gerry Martinuk in 2003. The truth is Cambridge has never been a Liberal haven and certainly won't be as long as they run Peric. It simply went Liberal due to a divided right. If the Liberals were actually serious about picking up this riding then they would have gotten a stronger candidate like Doug Craig.
01 12 05 Eric Rego
Look for Gary Goodyear to widen his margin of victory. In the 2004 election it was extremely close due to Janko Peric being the incumbent since 1993. Also Janko was mainly a backbencher who accomplished very little in parliament in his 12 years. In his first year in parliament Gary was appointed Ontario Caucus Chair. If the conservatives form government he is strong cabinet material, and at the very lest will be a parliamentary sectary. Now that Gary is the incumbent look for him to pick up votes based on that too. Also with the provincial liberals refusing to give the Cambridge Memorial Hospital the 70 million that was promised this will make undecided voters or hesitant liberal voters very angry with Janko. Even more damaging to Janko was news that has come out about a backroom deal in which Janko claims to have secured 2 million for Cambridge from the Ontario Health Minister. This backfired so immensely it was almost funny. The Health Minister denies the meeting even took place. A good personal friend of Janko who also works on his campaign (he is also the person that leaked the news about the backroom deal) named I believe Ron Kondrous said in a letter to the editor in the Cambridge Times that Cambridge basically got what it deserved with respect to lack of funding because it voted in a Conservative MP and MPP in both Liberal governments. Very damaging I believe to Janko's cause in Cambridge. Given the benefit of incumbency, Gary being cabinet material and Janko being a backbencher for life, and the whole Cambridge Memorial Hospital scandal look for Gary to widen his margin of victory by 1000-4000 votes possibly more depending on the national campaigns.
30 11 05 JF
In 2004, a relevant number of past-liberal voters endorsed the NDP candidate in protest to Peric's outspoken position on controversial issues of abortion and same-sex; however, this will undo itself in this election. Those left-leaning voters didn't want a conservative representative and those issues are considered to be resolved. Realizing what resulted, combined with Peric being more centre, will most certainly help the liberals win this riding back. Lets not forget that Peric seems to get more press, more often than the sitting MP and the local leaders still attend Peric events. Everyone knows he is the guy to beat.
23 10 05 PFR
Cambridge residents do not see themselves as being part of the GTA, nor is it just a miniture version of Kitchener. Talk to anyone in Cambridge about politics and they would tell you first and foremost they want strong representatives who will stand up for the interests of Cambridge and make those known. This has to do with the people that they elect in to their municipal government, Queens Park and yes it also applies to who they want to represent them at Parliament Hill. Janko Peric would be a back bencher for life with no hope of ever making to cabinet. The residents of Cambridge are aware of that and they want a stronger voice in Ottawa. Gary Goodyear despite being a rookie Member of Parliament has proven to being a stronger voice in one year than Peric was in eleven years. In addition, as much as the Liberals hate to admit it he has serious cabinet potential.
Secondly, the residents of Cambridge are fuming mad that the Liberals in Queens Park will not be giving them their promised grant to build a much needed extension to their hospital. The residents of Cambridge feel back stabbed and ignored. Health Care is always a major issue and unless something is done may be the top issue in this riding. That would play right into Dr. Goodyear's hands who is very knowledgeable on this subject.
06 10 05 Justin
Peric just hosted a very successful fundraiser with Belinda Stronach and has had several other events with other cabinet ministers, including Ken Dryden. What struck me was the fact that prominent business people from the area were coming out for Janko.
The NDP is running a less prominent candidate who will be hard pressed to score the same numbers as in 2004.
And the suburb growth is continuing. Newcomers from Mississauga or Oakville are moving here in droves, completely unaware of the Conservative strength of the area (and totally not about to relive the NDP years).
Close, but advantage to Peric.
24 09 05 L. Anderson
Liberal. Only a very weird turnaround in the Green Party could cost the Liberals this seat. If all goes as it seems to be going now, the Greens will either not run a candidate or run a truly low-key campaign perhaps also endorsing the Liberal here (maybe on some condition, after some talk).
This has happened before between Green and NDP, and Green and Liberal candidates, with the Green issuing a "podium endorsement" with the blessing of their electoral district association. And this is virtually certain to happen if the Greens run a candidate at all:
Gareth White and his organization have been the loudest voice pushing for the Green Party of Canada to "share revenue" from the per-vote funding the Greens get now. White is also an adamant opponent of the GPC Leader Jim Harris: who will still be the Leader during the 2006 election.
There is open talk of an "EDA strike" in the Green Party of Canada where the nominated candidates would drop out at the last moment to prevent Jim Harris from claiming a mandate to continue as leader, prevent him getting his hands on more funds (to "embezzle" as his opponents in the GPC call it), and (strategically) elect a Liberal not a Conservative so that the NDP look like vote-splitters but the Greens look like smart strategic players.
If that happens on any scale, this riding would be one of the most likely for it to occur in. Harris can't oppose White's candidacy without serious problems, but, if he signs his nomination papers, he risks White becoming a dropout. This is one of many such dilemmas that are depressing Green votes and causing prominent figures (such as former GPC Deputy Leader Tom Manley) to drop out of the GPC and literally join the Liberal Party of Canada.
While White won't go that far, he's highly unlikely to repeat his 2004 performance. And it takes only a few of his votes to elect the Liberal.
If the Liberals make White a strong offer for his support, like, a few pet policy projects, then, they can probably count on this riding coming back.
19 08 05 A.S.
It truly is reflective of the slow, inexorable GTAing of Cambridge that this onetime Grit wasteland nearly re-elected Janko Peric (a classic Chretien-era "accident" who fell short of 40% in his first two victories) in 2004--if it weren't for the advance polls, he would have punctured Goodyear's tire. (It bears noting that plenty of Peric's best polls were in newer subdivisions which are GTAesque--or at least, Stoney Creekesque--right down to their multicultural undercurrent.) Another reflection is that despite Jack Layton, the NDP base didn't move so much forward (cf. Brantford) as sideways, remaining around the 20% plateau achieved federally in '97 and provincially in '99 and '03. Other than a residual local machine, that the NDP still has a chance owes to the fact that Layton still has legs--and it's worth noting that of 2004's 4 OntariTory seats (Cambridge, Essex, Niagara Falls, Oshawa) where the NDP cracked 20%, 3 have a heavily auto-based economy (or all 4, if you account for NF's adjacency to GM's operations in St. Kitts). You can't beat incumbency, or an occasional Stephen Harper photo-op visit, or a history of Reform/Alliance grassroots clout, or a corresponding provincial Tory at Queen's Park--but this is still anything but a safe bet for Gary Goodyear; however, if it *is* a safe bet, it's because w/o a Liberal incumbent to kick out no more, the opposition's split. In which case, back to the pre-1993 future, then...
05 05 05 M. Lunn
Unless the liberals make a full re-bound in Ontario, this will likely stay Conservative. Although a working class area, it is generally socially conservative so the Conservatives social positions will likely benefit them in this riding. I am guessing by the current numbers, the Conservatives would win by 5-7 points, so still a close race, but not a razor thin win like last time around.
03 05 05 MF
Goodyear took this by a very narrow margin due to Janko (Liberal) being the incumbent. This time, with the benefits of incumbency, look for Goodyear to widen his margin of victory.

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