Update/Mise à jour:
12:15 PM 17/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:03 PM 08/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Virginia Ervin
Doug Moffatt
Bev Oda
Bruce Rogers
Christian Heritage
Henry Zekveld

Bev Oda

2004 Result/Résultats:
Bev Oda
Tim Lang
Bruce Rogers
Virginia Ervin
Durk Bruinsma

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 Big Dog
An easy pick. With the way the numbers have been going in Ontario, the Conservatives are not going to lose any seats that they previously picked up (with the possible exception of Oshawa). Bev Oda is going back to Ottawa and may even be a Cabinet Minister, something that Durham has not had for some time.
Bev is well established in Orono, and while it is a small part of the riding, the voters there are pretty savvy and smart when it comes to casting their ballot. Doug Moffat, while a good guy, has had his day. If the numbers were predicting a Liberal majority, he probably would have been able to knock Bev off, but not now. Besides, local Liberal elements want this to go Conservative, because there are those with their own ambitions and agenda that really do not want to see Doug Moffat win, lest he get in their way for the next election.
07 01 06 Fowlow
I find it funny that during the first debate that was held is In Courtice Doug Moffat NEVER said "Liberal" once, hmmm maybe he is trying to hide the not so good record of the liberals, Even tough Doug is a "high Profile" candidate when asked questions about the Gun Registray and all the other boodoggles from the liberals he says he was not there and that if he was there he would FIX it, but never says how he would fix it, he is running on his record of the Mayor of Port Perry, and Chair of Various Borads. However he is not saying what his "accomplishments" are when he was with these borads. Be intresting on how this riding goes!
31 12 05 A.S.
Doug Moffatt's a star of sorts, and he's certainly got more real-rather-than-inherited credentials than the dewd who Bev Oda barely beat last time, but this run's got a take-one-for-the-team/last-kick-at-the-can quality about it--the kind of thing we'd expect more from an old-time NDPer than from someone bearing the Liberal standard. (Oh yeah--Doug Moffatt *is* an old-time NDPer.) As for Bev Oda, she's more moderate (i.e. more a la John Tory than Jim Flaherty) than one might expect from her chosen party affiliation and constituency--maybe a good thing for Harper in Ontario this time, even if Harper was nearly a bad thing for Oda last time...
24 12 05 El Predicto
How the Tories will win: This is a knee-jerk Tory riding, normally. This time out, the Liberals have gone with Moffat, who is all but invisible so far. Oda's team is working the phones and is way ahead in the sign war. The riding is Oda's to lose.
How the Grits could make it interesting: People here also carefully scrutinize the local candidate. Last time out, Tim Lang outshone Oda in the debates and outworked her on the ground and she just squeaked by. If it were Lang up against Bev again, I'd say the Grits had a better than average shot. But so far, it looks like Oda (who is a weak candidate at best) will win. The only way the Liberals can pick this one up is for Moffatt to bust loose in the debates and get the vote out – especially in the northern parts of the riding. So far, he doesn’t seem motivated. A possible advantage for the Liberals so far is the fact that folks in Oda's camp who were motivated by the same-sex issue last election won't come out (no pun intended) in the same numbers this time. As thin as Oda's margin was last time, it might have made a difference with a different Liberal candidate. Oda by 3,000 votes is my guess.
21 12 05 QM
Local papers and online opinions at www.durhamregion.com says this is too close to call and I agree. The incumbent was a political rookie last time out and has done little to get her profile up. Doug Moffatt is well known and a local resident which should win him some more votes and his political leanings should also get him a good portion of the over 7000 NDP votes from 2004. I would say Liberal but at very least it's time to put this riding as too close to call.
15 12 05 PB
Any hopes or thoughts that anyone may have with regards to Moffatt's chances of unseating Oda should have evaporated with his campaign ad in the Statesman on December 14th. Everyone seems to think this former mayor of Scugog will put on a strong show in the northern part of the riding but he doesn't appear to even have a Scugog office. The add mentions only Uxbridge and Bowmanville. There isn't even a picture of him in the ad. While they seem to be trying to play up his experience there's a definite noticeable attempt to hide his age. I would have to think this would turn off a good many seniors who would otherwise think about voting for him.
14 12 05 Pink Pants
Bev's team has increased leaps and bounds from the last time while keeping all the talent - and they won last time. She will win.
07 12 05
This one should be a cakewalk for the Conservatives but won't be. Not because of the campaign team but because of the candidate. Oda simply doesn't like campaigning as evidenced by her performance in 2004. If she personally knocks on more than a couple of dozen doors I'll be surprised. I still think she'll win despite herself. Why will she win? This riding remains blue despite the influx of new residents from the People's Republic of Toronto. Moffatt, being the former mayor of Scugog and the chair of the DRPSB, doesn't have the visibility outside of Scugog that people like to give him credit for. The saving grace should be the national campaign. All they have to do is not screw up royally to hold on to Durham, but only barely.
29 11 05 Scott
This one will be closer then people think. Bev Oda has the upper hand and a good record in the house but lacks a real campaign team. Unlike last time Bev will not be able to ride on Harpers coat tails to save her like last time. Doug Moffet is a well know figure and liked by many NDPers.
Its a coin toss that could be a Tory win if the NDP steal those Liberal votes again, and a Liberal win if the Tories don't get there act in gear and door knock this time. It all comes down to who has the better E-Day Chair this time.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Its really too earlier to tell which way this will go. Bev Oda is a moderate and the fact she is featured in the Ontario TV ads should help. However, the liberal candidate also has a higher profile so that could help them. The Conservatives have taken a big fall in the GTA, but have remained the same or gone up outside the GTA and since this riding is right on the edge of the GTA it is difficult to say which direction they have gone in. Unless the current polling changes considerably, which is certainly possible, I expect both parties to get between 35-45% in this riding, with the Conservatives having a 60% chance of holding this and a 40% chance of a liberal pick-up.
28 06 05 905er
Not so certain here any longer. I had pegged this one blue but the Liberals will have the former Mayor of Scuogg, former MPP for the area and current Chair of the Durham Region Police Services Board run here - Doug Moffat. In a riding where personal connections matter, he is a big boost. If it had been Moffat on the ballot last time, he would have won (Lang is a good guy but out of area). It will be a close race and certainly now merits being marked too close to call. Hard to say what will happen now.
02 06 05 MS from Durham
Long time Conservatives I talk to in the riding seem rather disenchanted with Harper's leadership. This could cost Ms. Oda large - and while she is seen as a moderate, she is less than high profile within the riding. The Tories are dropping like a stone in Ontario. It was close 2 way race last time and if Tim Lang runs again, I predict he will knock off Oda.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
In all likelihood, Bev Oda should hold her seat. She is one of the more moderate members which should help her not to mention she will likely be the next Heritage Minister if the Conservatives form the next government. Nevertheless, this riding was historically a rural riding therefore favouring the Conservatives, but is now becoming more of a suburban riding making it a swing riding. It is still far enough from Toronto for the Conservatives to win, but close enough that the liberals could, although unlikely pull off an upset. I am guessing around 45% for Bev Oda and 35% for the liberals.
06 05 05 Brandon
Colour this riding deep blue. Socially conservative with a moderate (and high profile) MP, Bev Oda. Bev is the leading Heritage Minister candidate if a Harper government ever forms and the voters of Durham will send her back to Ottawa over and over again until she holds that title.

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