Update/Mise à jour:
2:13 PM 31/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:38 PM 10/05/2005
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Don Valley East
Don Valley-Est

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Wayne Clements
Richard Alan Hennick
Eugene McDermott
Yasmin Ratansi

Yasmin Ratansi

2004 Result/Résultats:
Yasmin Ratansi
David Johnson
Valerie Mah
Dan King
Ryan Kidd
Christopher Black

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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29 12 05 MH
Where David Johnson failed in 2004, can Eugene NcDermott succeed in 2006? It seems unlikely. Alan Redway beat Yasmin Ratansi by about 3,000 votes in 1988, but that was then. Starting in 1993, Hon. David Collenette won DVE three times in a row with growing majorities. After his resignation, Ms Ratansi got a second chance. Faced with but a single Conservative opponent, a very high-profile one at that, she won by more than 10,000 votes. She is hardly a star, but nowadays Toronto Grits don't need to be stars to beat Toronto Tories. It's getting boring to say it, but only a major shift in the political landscape, one of which there's still no sign, will dislodge Ms Ratansi. She has far from the safest seat in Toronto, but for the moment she is safe.
01 12 05 W.W.W
Ratansi should have no problems, the CPC candidate have little/no recognition, and little connection with the northern part of the riding. For the CPC to have any chance would need to have an EXCEPTIONAL showing of the NDP in the northern part of riding, esp. in the apartments near the mall.
30 11 05 Ted
Recieved some campaign literature from McDermott (conservative candidate) today in the mail. This is the first I've received from anyone. I think Ratansi is about the weakest most invisible MP ever but I'm not sure if that's enough to get her canned. I had thought Johnson would beat her, having gone to one of the all candidates debates last year Ratansi wasn't even in the same class as Johnson as far as ability to portray an idea or belief but she carried the riding easily. McDermott seems like another excellent candidate but I can't see him unseating Ratansi (or should I say any liberal) in DVE if Johnson couldn't, sponsorship or no sponsorship. Apathy towards sponsorship + Liberal label of pro immigrant = return to commons for Ratansi.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
Lets get real here. Yasmin Ratansi may be a lousy local MP, but 90% of people voted based on party not local candidate and with the exception of some of the waterfront ridings, Toronto will go solidly Liberal. People are too frightened of Stephen Harper to go Conservative regardless of their misgivings of Yasmin Ratansi, while see the NDP as fiscally irresponsible in this upper middle class riding.
28 11 05 Kevin J.
Yasmin Rantinsi took this riding by a 2 to 1 margin in the 2004 election, after many pundits said it was too close to call. Well being a resident of this riding and a long time Liberal supporter, not once has Ms. Rantinsi sent out a newsletter to any of her constituents since being elected.... she is merely a ghost here. I see the CPC sneaking in and taking this riding by a hair. Chalk Don Valley East to the Conservatives, as much as I hate to admit it.
23 11 05 Forecast
If a high profile and competent David Johnson can not win this riding, no CPC candidate can win it in the near future. This seat should be used for the liberals to parachute Tim Murphy, rather than oust Bill Graham. But I guess Bill Graham is seen as a too strong of a politician, that he poses a threat to the Pual Jr. leadership.
05 11 05 A.S.
An archetypally 416burban seat, pre-1993 this would have been more of a swing riding than a solid Tory one. And even w/David Collenette's retirement accounted for, it was quixotic wishful thinking for CPC to super-target DVE; I guess it's all because Dave Johnson was hankering for a political comeback, or because the Tories were hankering for potential 416 "cabinet material", wherever, however. So, despite predictions of a hot horserace, Johnson was not only pummeled 2:1, he won (other than the "special ballot", curiously enough) only one poll--by one vote! If it's any consolation, DVE at large still succeeded in being "tighter" than DVW, despite the latter's stronger Tory (of course, *Progressive* Conservative) history. But that's with a (relatively) stronger NDP skewing the picture (plus: no Grit incumbent, no John Godfrey, etc). Especially without a true "name" CPC candidate (and, add to that, demos swinging into white-minority territory), only an extreme post-Gomery Grit-obliteration situation will cause the DVE domino to fall.
28 05 05 Craig
Profiles of candidates mean little in Toronto. The Conservatives are deemed "scary" in Toronto and are not going to win anything in the 416 area code until they alienate their base into a new Reform party. David Johnson lost big last time, the new CPC candidate will lose by even more to Yasmin Ratansi, despite being a relative unknown. The NDP may get some more votes but the Liberals will take this as they continue to command the red fortress known as Toronto. Predicted results: LIB 55%, CPC 21%, NDP 17%, GRN 5%, others 2%.
14 05 05 Aric H
The Liberals will hold this riding unless their support really goes down in Ontario. Last year former Mike Harris cabinet minister David Johnson ran here for the Conservatives and lost by over 10,000 votes. That shows that even high-profile Conservatives have a challenge in ridings like this.
11 05 05 P. Christie
The Tories have three terrific candidates for their nomination tomorrow night -- Especially Paul Perantinos who was chief of staff to the Mayor of Toronto in the 80's and more recently has been the corporate secretary of Maple Leaf Gardens (MLSE?) He's a very classy guy who will give Ratansi a real run for her job. With a great candidate and the trend I think the CPC will win here.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
Even though this is a reasonably well to do riding, the Conservatives are way too weak to win any of the 416 ridings. Except a few waterfront ridings, the liberals should easily hold all the rest of the 416 area code ridings. The Conservatives may have a shot at some of the 905 belt ridings, but even there, their support seems to have evaporated over the last couple of weeks.

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