Update/Mise à jour:
4:46 PM 12/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:32 AM 02/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Canadian Action
Will Arlow
Progressive Canadian
Phill Borm
Crispin Colvin
Christian Heritage
Ken DeVries
Jonathan Martyn
Tim McCallum
Joe Preston

Joe Preston

2004 Result/Résultats:
Joe Preston
Gar Knutson
Tim McCallum
Julie-Ann Stodolny
Ken DeVries
Will Arlow

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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11 01 06 Alex
At the Agriculture Forum ACM on Monday Jan 9, Will Arlow of the Cdn Action Party said in his closing statements "Don't kid yourself, Preston has this one in a landslide". He then advocated voters to vote what they believe, and look at the smaller parties. The other "small party" candidates, especially Ken DeVries of Christian Heritage Party, also stated that this was "the time to vote what you believe, a vote for someone, not strategic, not against". By this initiative Tim McCallum could surpass Colvin for 2nd place.
31 12 05 A.S.
Blue Grittiness would work to advantage in Elgin County, where they prefer their Liberals a little on the powerful-maverick side, as provincials from Mitch Hepburn to Steve Peters have proven. By comparison, Gar Knutson was Chretienite wallpaper who (despite a small cabinet post along the way) consistently underperformed until being put out of his electoral misery in '04. But given the margin Joe Preston's sitting on, any maverick Liberal will have to regard '06 as more of a practice run than a realistic bid for victory...
22 12 05 JnE
It is inconceivable that Preston would lose this riding. His 10 to 1 lawn sign advantage aside, he is a relatively popular MP(much more so than his predecessor Gar Knutson), a local business owner, and has had his hand in many community/charity projects over the years. He won by 5000 votes in 2004 and with the incumbent's advantage will win by a lot more this time around. Elgin-Middlesex-London is a conservative, heavily-rural riding. Canadian Alliance candidate Bill Walters almost carried it in 2000. A united Conservative Party running a strong campaign will allow Preston to not only win, but win in a landslide.
13 12 05 Irish Mike
Popular Mayor???...Really?...Colvin will be lucky to be re-elected dog catcher after alienating alot of town council and aggravating the locals over growth and water shed issues. Plenty of folks here are waiting to oust him and get a more Rural friendly mayor here. He seems to be more interested in Lefty Politics than being the farmer he claims to be. Preston in a landslide.
29 11 05 Chet
Colvin is a popular local mayor with several years of municipal experience, and appears to be a Blue Grit. This one might just swing back to the Libs in a squeaker.
15 11 05 Bear and Ape
A Liberal gain in a fairly conservative mostly rural riding in SW Ontario where the CPC won last time by over 4000 votes? Please! If Preston's commercial background was alright in June 2004 then it is just fine and dandy in winter 2005/06. Look for a bigger CPC win since Preston has the incumbent advantage.
08 11 05 John Studley
With Preston's commercial background in a dominant farming community, it is clear that if the Liberals front a farmer his demise is inevitable, which is just what they have lined up with Crispin Colvin in the next election.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
The gap here is big enough, and the history is strong enough that this should be an obvious win to anyone who wants to look at it serisouly. The tories have a huge advantage here, this is a true blue riding, and I dont see any problem with them getting back in.
10 05 05 Erik
Joe Preston, by more than his last margin of victory. Riding is small-c conservative, farmers, hard-working blue-collar, retirees, and to them a dollar saved is a dollar earned.
04 05 05 Initial
Even though I am a Liberal, I would have to concur. The riding had always had a combined vote that was larger than the Liberals in the past 3 elections when the PCS and Alliance were still split. Preston should be able to double his percentage total to 55-60% tops.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Considering this was one of the stronger Conservative showings in Ontario last election not to mention the fact that this seat was previously held by a liberal cabinet minister, I expect the Conservatives to re-take this even if the liberals make a full re-bound. The liberals would need a 20 point lead in Ontario before this riding would come into play, which won't happen anytime soon.
26 04 05 Herbert R. H.
In the June 2004 election Conservative Joe Preston easily defeated Liberal cabinet minister Gar Knutson. If that trend holds up - which is likely - the victory margin would only increase this time around. The Liberals will likely run a local politician but from outside St Thomas who is virtually unknown outside his municipality. Preston's nomination is unchallenged and he has shown himself a quick learner and someone who stands up for what he believes. Barring a real disastrous campaign, Preston is back as MP.

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