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11:56 AM 19/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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John Capobianco
Cathy Holliday
Michael Ignatieff
Liam McHugh-Russell
Janice Murray
Philip Ridge

Hon. Jean Augustine

2004 Result/Résultats:
Jean Augustine
John Capobianco
Margaret Anne McHugh
John Huculiak
Janice Murray

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 tired
I drove by Ignatieff's campaign office tonight on the way and there was a protest. A whopping 6 people with placards screaming about democracy. This constant hounding has got to hurt his leadership chances but I still think he's got the riding nailed. He's at the subway stop every morning and people are talking about how visible he is. He might be losing the air war but I think he's winning votes, one at a time. 10,000 votes is a huge gap to cover, even with the Liberal titanic sinking. My bet's on Iggy.
20 01 06 almost too close
I met Michael after the Mimico debate this week. Very impressive presence. He was a little long-winded about his visions for the lakeshore (doesn't he know that is a political blackhole in this city?) but he definitely knew more about the local stuff than you'd expect from a parachute candidate. I got about 4 minutes with him, and he had me sold. If he's left the comfort of his campaign office to knock on doors (which he says he has, day and night like a man on a mission) he'll win this riding. Gets you hooked in 240 seconds or less.
19 01 06 RJ
Personally, I'm pissed about the liberals and the countless scandals, but after going to the debate and seeing Ignatieff in action, he made Capo look like a chump. Capo's a nice local guy and all, but he doesn't have the same foresight or charisma and that came through in the debate. I think the voters in Etobicoke-Lakeshore know this deep down as well.
19 01 06 LF
Ok, ok--so we know the liberals will not likely be in government. This hurts many Ontarians who have clung to the red vote time and time again. But, seems like the press has now moved on to more interesting things like who will replace Martin. I think this is a hell of a lot more interesting (and it seems like the press agrees) than whether Capobianco will beat Ignatieff. Not sure what has prompted the press (National Post and Globe and Mail) to start singing Ignatieff's tune--perhaps they agree that since Capo who will have no chance at PC leadership (at least while Harper is PM), they might as well give a closer look to Ignatieff who actually could end up running this country in the not so distant future... (I'm sure Chretien is laughing his head off in Shawinigan somewhere!)
20 01 06 B-Good
There's no doubt that this will one will be a squeaker. I read JC's op-ed this morning in the National Post and realized that he really is a one pony show. His message since the start of this campaign has been to blast Ignatieff for his absence from Canada. At first, that must have had some traction in the riding (the Ukrainian's screaming foul play couldn't help) but there's only so long that the message will resonate on the doorsteps. I thought JC had a good chance of taking this (oh how interesting that would have been for Liberal morale) but the whining has got to be irritating for people. I think voters are going to start asking themselves why they should believe that having a successful Harvard professor is a bad thing?!?
18 01 06 DF
Saw Ignatieff at the all candidates' meeting last night. From what I could see, most who were not there to heckle (the undecided) were with him. Not surprising - he outclasses all of his opponents. This may be a close race, but it did not look like one last night. Ignatieff seems to be drawing his support quietly and effectively.
19 01 06 Curious about backlash
Just curious: Are there NDPers who might vote Conservative in this riding, just to prevent Ign. from winning?
18 01 06 M
I was at the all-candidates’ meeting last night (Jan. 17). The crowd was huge and very attentive. But there was too much heckling. Now I don’t mind a good heckle now and then. But it must be short, witty and to the point. Last night, there was too much heckling and they were generally bad heckles. I think it was the heckles and perhaps just the candidates’ exhaustion that led the candidates’ general performance level to be less than that shown at the earlier Jan. 12 all candidates’ meeting. There was one particularly obnoxious heckler who appeared to have some kind of Tourette’s syndrome ailment that caused him to shout out at Ignatieff, regardless of what the topic was, “Gomery!” and “Adscam!”. Such heckling likely turned even non-Liberals off as it was more intended to bully and obstruct the Liberal candidate from his right to speak than anything else. Ignatieff was his typical eloquent and thoughtful self. But the hecklers were ready to pounce on him at any misstep and he unfortunately made a few. In response to a question about integrity in government, he hamhandedly referenced Jean Augustine’s ability to remember constituents’ birthdays. I understood his point (that not all pols are crooks and just look at what a good MP Augustine was) but the answer was inelegant. Second, in a question about crime, Igatieff said something to the effect that crime in the riding was not out of control. Now, that very well may be true and it is important for politicians not to play up unfounded fears of a crime wave to be overly harsh on accuseds in order to win votes. But the way in which Ignatieff expressed himself came very close to showing a lack of appreciation for how concerned voters in the riding are about crime. He should try to emulate Bill Clinton on this issue and communicate in a way that validates the voters’ sense of concern without losing sight of the real facts and the need to tailor policy to what actually will work as opposed to what will only win votes. Despite these quibbles, Ignatieff was generally hitting home runs for the Liberal faithful. This man knows the Liberal party’s history and feels its values and mission in his gut.
Capobianco didn’t make any significant missteps but did appear tired. Liam McHugh-Russell was his typical bombastic self. He comes off as a high school debater in love with the sound of his voice and intent more on whipping the crowd into a frenzy with his rhetoric that providing policy specifics. At least his hair was in less of a shambles than at the earlier all-candidates’ meeting on Jan. 12. He still needs a new suit though. Phil Ridge of the Green Party read from his party’s platform so often that it became a joke. When not reading though, he made a number of important points that really impacted the crowd. With a little tweaking, his performance could really be quite effective.
There were more protesters at the Jan. 17 meeting than at the Jan. 12 meeting. This is perhaps due to the fact that the media reports of the Jan. 12 meeting give them undue attention. Those dressed up as Abu Ghraib detainees were a disgrace. To insinuate that Ignatieff would support the mistreatment of prisoners as happened at Abu Ghraib is just patently unfair. All in all, this race remains too close to call. Capobianco appears to be winning the sign war and by a wide margin. And the Ukrainians and others are palpably furious at Ignatieff and the Liberal Party.
But the national race appears to be tightening a little bit, ie. the Tories have likely peaked. I’m really hoping for Ignatieff to win but this is going to be very close.
17 01 06 The Observer
Despite the faltering national campaign, despite the controversy surrounding Iggy's nomination, and despite the accusations of parachuting, at the end of the day I think that the Liberals will take this.
1 - The NDP offered up a sacrificial lamb, meaning that many left leaners will flock to the Liberals in order to keep out the Conservatives.
2 - Harper-brand Conservatism is still poison in Toronto. The high-profile Peter Kent in St Paul's manages to avoid this by appealing to Red Tory sensibilities. Capobianco, without the same high profile, just can't provide the same degree of reassurance.
Prediction: Liberals by 5%-10% over CPC.
17 01 06
I am certain that Michael Ignatieff will win. First of all, undecided voters will vote Liberal - if they haven't decided that the Conservatives are for them yet, they won't when they are in the voting booth. (Even the National Post has admitted as much).
That said, Ignatieff has ran a campaign that has been proving his critics wrong. He has been able to connect with regular voters (including me, he came to my house!).
17 01 06 Big Deal!
Let's thinks about this. Michael Ignatieff had a rocky start out of the gate. In fact, so much so that he was covered in all the major Canadian dailies as well as several times in the Star. One might argue that the negative press would bring down your vote, but anyone who's been around the political campaign scene knows that there's no such thing as bad press. Furthermore, Ignatieff's speaking skills and general intellect clearly catapult him beyond his opponents. This has no doubt been recognized on doorsteps and at other key public engagements. While John Capobianco is a formidable foe, it can't be expected that he could take down a powerhouse like Michael Ignatieff. A Liberal government may be in question, but this candidate's likelhood of winning should not be.
17 01 06 Fabian B
If any riding in METRO TORONTO goes Conservative, it would be Etobicoke-Lakeshore. The gap is between the Liberals and Conservatives is not insurmountable like 20,000+ in the 2004 elections riding of St. Pauls where Peter Kent is running. It is less than 10,000. In this election, Liberal Michael Ignatieff has alienated the local Liberal riding constituency and many Liberal voters by getting himself appointed to the candidacy over other competing candidates. The fact that he has not lived in Canada for 10+ years will not endear him to long time Liberal supporters. It seems like Ignatieff has mastered the art of alienating his own Party's core of voters. Secondly, John Capobianco has a strong Progressive Conservative history under Bill Davies and Mike Harris and is personally popular. All the recent media speculation of an Ignatieff candidacy for Prime Minister of Canada may turn off even more voters who haven't yet voted in this election. I anticipate the NDP will also perform well in Toronto and draw away Liberal votes from Ignatieff and also a large boost in voter support for the Conservatives in this one riding. Voters may give this seat to Capobianco partly to teach Ignatieff a lesson and have a Toronto MP inside a potential Conservative Government.
16 01 06 EGM
Here's a case where the Liberals' national difficulties might work for their benefit. If the Liberals get beat the way the polls seem to indicate, Paul Martin will have to resign as leader. Since everyone is talking about Ignatieff as a possible replacement, the voters of Etobicoke-Lakeshore will be even more inclined to elect him. The Ukrainian snafu (if you can call it that) is old news and won't play a significant role.
16 01 06 Fredo
There is a strong Liberal base in EL. Ignatieff has worked very hard in the riding. He has a huge on-the-ground organization. Red signs outnumber blue signs almost two to one. Reception from locals at campaign events has been huge and enthusiastic. Ukrainians are NOT voting as a block against him. Will be closer than last time due to national trend, but Ignatieff is picking up a lot of undecided from all sides of the spectrum. Impressive candidate.
14 01 06 MIke F.
For the love of god - forget 1988. That was almost twenty years ago, and an eternity ago in canadian politics and the life of this riding.
This is now (in THIS century) a bedrock 416 liberal riding with the party still holding a very significant lead in Toronto. Ignatieff is a high profile candidate who the media has been touting as a possible future prime minister. In order for a guy like Capobianco to beat out a guy like that in a strong liberal riding like this - liberal numbers would have to get into Kim Campbell country, which in Toronto they are light-years from.
The conservatives will pick up seats but it wont be here. Get your head out of the damn clouds.
12 01 05 Student Slacker
Non Non is dreaming if he honestly believes the Conservatives have a chance in this very Liberal riding. Ignatieff has taken a beating in the media for his past but it's not enough to stop Liberal voters in this riding from marking their ballots for him. What surprises me is just how weak the local NDP campaign has been. I'm not sure why Layton's team didn't put more into Etobicoke-Lakeshore but it's clear this wasn't a priority for them.
11 01 06 Barbie Doll
It's hard to believe that lawn signs provide any predictive benefit, but here they do seem to have corelated with results in the past. Liberal signs clearly dominated during the past few elections, with Tory before that and Liberal before that, all corresponding to the actual results. This time, I'm seeing more blue signs than red, at least in the northern half of the riding that I frequent. The margin is slim, however, suggesting it could go either way. Last weekend a bunch of NDP signs suddenly sprouted, though they mostly promote Jack Layton (and in small print: "his Toronto team"). Still a distant third, though.
10 01 06 Mike
Warm reception for Capobianco north of Bloor, huh? Funny that those living in $1,500,000 homes might lean that way.
But I agree with the assessment below. In my not-so-prestigious neighbourhood south of Bloor, Capobianco signs far out number the others. Even in neighbourhoods more modest than mine where you'd usually expect heavy Liberal and NDP support, the blue signs outnumber the others.
This is starting to look like 1984.
07 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
Campaigned with Capobianco north of Bloor this week and the reception was very, very good. Occasional concerns about the Tories and their leader but for every one of those there were at least three who can't stand the Liberals or Ignatieff or both.
Interestingly, in Sunnylea where I worked last year (and was surprised by Augustine's strength) people willing to identify themselves as Liberals have evaporated. Last time many held their noses and supported the Martinites. Now they're over it. Ignatieff must be on the receiving end of lots of hostility at the doors.
05 01 06
It is such uninformed thinking such as "Harper would deport everyone who was an immigrant" that will certainly get Ignatieff elected here. Eventhough it's not true, a lot of voters think this way and will vote that way.
04 01 06 Victor A.
First of all, I think that Michael will be elected with no difficulty whatsoever. Granted the CP had the best Toronto result in this riding last time around but I don't think Capobianco has any chance to actually build on it. He would have lost big time had Jean Augustine decided to run again. Second of all, concerning the last poster claiming that Polish/Ukrainians think that they have to vote Liberal otherwise Harper will expulse them is simply not the case at all. I am a Polish-Canadian and never heard such a thing from anyone. Poles tend to be way more interested in Polish elections and their turnout in the Canadian elections is similar to the Chinese, which is way below the national average.
02 01 06 Lucky Eddie
I live in a Polish/Ukrainian neighbourhood and everybody says they're voting Liberal. One elderly man says it's important to keep out the Conservatives because Harper would deport everyone who was an immigrant. And they still go on about the "hidden agenda" - which you'd think Belinda would have spilled the beans about by now, if it had ever existed. The bottom line for many is my mother's logic, which has kept her voting Liberal for over 50 years: "They let us into this country, so the least we can do is vote for them." This seems to be a common feeling in my Slovenian community, which isn't big Toronto-wide, but highly concentrated in this riding. With both the Conservative candidate and leader being unappealing choices, that should keep the seat Liberal. Still, it's not a totally safe seat.
29 12 05 Paul Jones
Easy win for Liberals- say by +3500 votes. Cappie may have been all over the TV last election, but even Harper guys know now he is a non-winner. Also I understand that the campaign manager that ran Aileen Carroll's campaign in Barrie last election has brought his gang down here to help in a liberal win. My prediction due to this changing of the guard - Lakeshore - Liberal & Barrie - Conservative
27 12 05 Rebel
For the sake of electoral trivia, I mention that the narrow win in 1988 for the Conservatives was against the nDP. Why? There was no Liberal candidate nominated in time...
26 12 05 MH
IF (and it is a big if) the Liberals lose one of the Etobicoke seats, this will be the one. Etobicoke-Lakeshore went Conservative in 1984 and (very narrowly) in 1988. Jean Augustine's margin of victory in 2004 was not quite 10,000 votes, low by recent Etobicoke standards. Furthermore, Michael Ignatieff may face some continuing opposition among local Liberals. Still, if his organization can get its act together it would take a major political shift to produce a Conservative win (the NDP hasn't been a contender here since the 1980s). Mr Ignatieff should be going to Ottawa next month and IF the Liberals manage to form a government, he should soon be in line for a cabinet seat.
22 12 05 love, sydney
Michael Ignatieff is winning over a few detractors with each day, he has a solid organization that is coming together, a lot of students have rallied around him, while there is no sense that the anti-Grit/Anti-Ignatieff vote has chosen its leading light yet. He had a rough road to start, but will be a strong addition to Parliament.
13 12 05 les
An Ignatieff win here presupposes a Liberal victory (minority or majority) in the overall election. But suppose the polls show a Liberal collapse nationally? Would an impending Liberal defeat not doom Ignatieff, given the Ukranian vote in this riding? I wouldn't be so quick to assume this is a Liberal win.
12 12 05 M
Augustine Loyalist was right! Augustine did not enjoy support from the Ukranian contingent on the Liberal Riding Executive and she said any candidate who would have replaced her would have faced such opposition that Ignatieff is experiencing!
A Dec 12 National Post article featured a full page interview with Jean Augustine. Here are the important parts relating to the fierce opposition that Ignatieff has faced surrounding his nomination:
Interviewer: Chriss Cobb (CC)
with Jean Augustine (JA)
CC: Were you asked by the party to relinquish your seat to make way for Michael Ignatieff?
JA: No. I was talked into going into politics in 1993 and I felt I would give it a good shot and do my best in the time I had. It was never a be-all and end-all for me.
CC: How do you feel about what's happening in your riding and the controversy over Ignatieff being acclaimed the candidate?
JA: He is a bright, smart, decent man with down-to-earth qualities and he'll make a good representative. All of the stuff that happened around the nomination would have happened anyway. One group had hijacked the riding association and had not been working with me, or been in conversation with me, or respectful and supportive of me as the MP. :o
CC: Are we going to see you appointed to the Senate?
JA: I don't know but I'm certainly not going home to sit in a rocking chair. I have had no offers, no one has approached me or made any promises and with my luck they probably won't.
CC: What are your immediate plans?
JA: To get Michael Ignatieff elected. And in February, when it's over, I'm going to find some sun and exhale, as they say. And when I get back, hopefully, someone will come calling.
Just an added note: I spoke to a Ukranian-Canadian in the riding and she said most people are less upset with the fact that Ignatieff hasn't lived in the country for 30 years or his comments about stereotypes and dances (which he argues he later seeks to disprove in his book), but more upset with Ignatieff's comments questioning Ukranian nationalism and what the Ukranians perceive as an insinuation that they are just like Russians and not a separate ethnic group.
11 12 05 Wyslo
Liberal.. because Ignatieff deserves credit for giving up a cushy job at an elite university to slug it out in the political trenches. And yes, I have actually read Ignatieff's supposedly controversial text "Blood and Belonging" and it is sympathetic to Ukrainian nationalism, that is one reason why it one so many prestigious awards. But the fact of the matter is that Ignatieff will be high profile and will bring that to this riding.
10 12 05 L.D.
All the smears that the NDP and Conservatives will run against Ignatieff do not change the reality that Ignatieff will have a lot of clout in government and can get important things done for the people of this riding. This is why voters will elect Ignatieff.
10 12 05 Campaign Trail
Michael Ignatieff will be elected because he is the Liberal candidate and the people in this riding will be voting Liberal. There may be an independent candidate or not, but to suggest that he will get 12,000 votes from the Liberal camp? The NDP quadriples their vote from 1.5 years ago? This is a 416 riding where most people vote for a Party and not the local candidate.
10 12 05 Prediction Boy
The Liberals should have no problem winning this riding for a number of reasons.
1) Their candidate Michael Ignatieff, who is a world renowned scholar and human rights activist, with deep roots in Canadian public thought.
2) Ignatieff's lack of local, on-the-ground support, has been offset by the recent announcement that Bruce Davis, who has 23 years of experience in the riding, will be supporting the Liberal campaign in the riding.
3) Compare Ignatieff's list of accomplishments to Capobianco's. While Mr. Ignatieff is a Booker prize nominee, a Harvard professor and a published author of many acclaimed works, Capobianco's claim to fame is his friendship with Mike Harris.
4) Contrary to the story-hungry media, Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a Liberal riding.
09 12 05 allan bryson
The riding will go to Ignatieff. People forget that they want to turn on the news and see their MP. They would much rather have a prominent front bencher than a backbench member. They know that it will put their neighbourhood on the map. This fact will cancel out all the hoopla so far. Come election day, a solid liberal win
09 12 05 John Huchison
Vote NDP has it right. John Capobianco was a major force in the "Common Sense Revolution". If Ignatieff's popularity alone doesn't ensure Capobianco's loss, his Tory past past certainly will.
07 12 05 Triasylo
I don't live in Etobicoke Lakeshore, but know quite a few people who do, and yes I am one of those Ukrainian-Canadians. Bruce Davis in throwing his support behind Ignatieff helps him without a doubt, but it doesn't say a lot about Ignatieff's abilities, it says more about the Liberal party's power of persuasion.
The fact that the media has moved on is really irrelevant here. In the living rooms of Etobicoke-Lakeshore the discussions about the manner of Ignatieff's coronation and the debate about the slagging of Ukraine, and Ukrainians issue, will continue. Along with Jeanne Augustine's suggestion that 'those' Ukrainians are not Canadian, these issues undermine the Liberal 'brand' in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. Ignatieff may win, but he will be sweating to the end.
07 12 05 MB
I used to live in Etobicoke Centre, the neighbouring riding of this one, and I can attest to just how Ukranian the population of Etobicoke is. As a matter of fact, Etobicoke Centre saw the two major candidates- Liberal Borys Wresznewskyj and Conservative Lida preyma- come from the Ukranian community. The Ukranian vote is strong in this riding, and it will help choose a winner. With that said, however, I do believe that people tend to vote more for the party than the candidate. And this is Toronto, the Liberal heartland. People here will vote Liberal for literally no reason. If this was the 905 belt, maybe then there would be a problem for Ignatieff over his book or undemocratic parachuting, but, let's be honest, this is Toronto, and to see anyone but a Liberal win here just won't happen.
07 12 05 EP
According to a very positive (for Ignatieff that is) article in Toronto Star today (Dec 7), Bruce Davis came out publicly in support of Ignatieff. This is a major coup and suggests Ignatieff’s ability to win over critics.
More importantly, I think this is a sign that rationality sinks in for most people after heated emotions chill out. The consensus in the media is that his stance on Ukraine is wildly taken out of context by selected few in the Ukrainian community motivated by self-interest. He will never win over his hardcore left wing detractors (to great pleasure of his Tory opponent… the NDP has not been a factor in Lakeshore since 1995). However the detractors, like his hardcore supporters, are mostly downtown activist folks that do not vote in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.
05 12 05 Vote NDP
John Capobianco is a prominent community activist in Etobicoke, is one of the architects of Mike Harris' "Common Sense" Revolution, and has a lot of clout in both the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario and the Conservative Party of Canada.
In contrast, Michael Ignatief was parachuted from his American ivory tower in Harvard. He's also a social liberal, thus ensuring that his candidacy would please nobody, save Christopher Hitchens, Tony Blair, and a few clowns in the Liberal backrooms.
Furthermore, Ignatief faces a strong challenge from the left in the form of school board trustee Bruce Davis, a staunch opponent of American imperialism, an ally of former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and a long-time activist from the more leftist wings of the Liberal Party. Davis intends to either seek the NDP nomination or run as an independent left-liberal.
Put most simply, Ignatief is toast, and the main question that remains is whether or not he will be able to win more votes than Davis (assuming he runs as a New Democrat), who will sadly not be able to defeat Capobianco due, if he runs as a Dipper, to the NDP's weakness in this riding (the NDP has not held this riding in nearly 35 years and won about half the number of votes that Capobianco won last election) and, should he run as independent, due to the fact that independents never win unless they're former MPs who have been snubbed by their party (by which I mean Chuck Cadman and John Nunziata).
04 12 05 MJL
An interesting news item - school board trustee, Bruce Davis, who is a well-connected Liberal and an actual resident of Etobicoke-Lakeshore has mused about running as an independent or for the nomination of the NDP. Davis does have the potential to siphon votes off from Ignatieff, making himself a natural repository for those angry at the nomination process. As well, a strong presence on the left in this riding can quite effectively make the war in Iraq (which Ignatieff is a big supporter of) a central issue.
At the end of the day, however, I do think Ignatieff will win. He has a 10,000 vote margin to blow - and not everything about him is negative. As mentioned by a previous poster, the Ukrainian population of the riding is only 4,000 - many of whom likely don't vote (only about 50-65% of people do), and not all of them would consider Ignatieff's remarks the main issue. Not to forget that Ignatieff is highly qualified, competent and all that stuff (not to mention a sure bet for cabinet and possibly the next PM).
03 12 05 J. Caroll
Let's face it, the Conservative Candidate (Capobianco) isn't too bright. And having a guy who spins and lies for a living (Hill and Knowlton corporate flack) likely won't appeal to voters too much. So what if Ignatieff 'offended' someone during the course of writing a whole series of books. That is the price of getting things done. The Ukranians are just angry because they wanted a Ukranian toady who they could manipulate and have control over. They know that Ignatieff won't pander to any particular ethnic group and will treat everyone fairly and with respect. Oh no, how horrible! The Liberals won by a landslide in the last election and by the time the next 2 months are up, Ignatieff and the Liberals will take this one.
02 12 05 grittyguy
Remember last election when Tony Valeri's riding association was so upset that Sheila Copps left. Remember how his riding association publicly defected to the NDP and worked to undermine his Liberal Support. And remember when Bill Cunningham was parachuted and acclaimed over two Chinese Canadians and actually increased the Liberal vote from 10,600 to 14,800. It's common in politics to try and bring down the guy that beat you in a nomination race, but it rarely has a lasting effect. Ignatieff will have no trouble here. Liberal hold.
01 12 05
I got a chuckle out of the "E-L is a community minded riding." The south half of the riding has seen some of the highest population turnover of any area in the GTA. Most of the people south of Evans Avenue have lived there for less than 5 years. Also, no one, outside of self-aggrandizing intellectuals and arm-chair politicians know, or even care who Ignatieff is. This is a safe Liberal seat. If my neighbours dog ran for the grits, the Tories might have a chance. Even then, no doubt, the Alberta Liberation Army would announce their plans to ban gay marriage, support the U.S. in Iraq and then I would have a dog as my MP.
01 12 05 MF
So Ignatieff's a much more offensive candidate than Jean Augustine ever was. He's going to lose a lot of lefty Liberal votes to the NDP. He'll lose some Ukrainian votes due to his anti-Ukrainian remarks. And he'll just lose votes from being an arrogrant prick who has no connection to the riding.
This riding isn't competitive for the NDP anymore, so I think we'll see a narrow Tory victory, the only one in 416.
01 12 05 Augustine Loyalist
A few factors about the “Ukrainians Riding Association”:
1. Not having the support of the current riding executive is not going to harm Ignatieff one bit operationally. Not a single member of the current riding executive helped Augustine last time. Augustine’s 2004 campaign was ran by her people that were defeated in the AGM (which was stacked by Borys’ Ukrainian mass sign up). These Augustine’s volunteer/riding execs see Ignatieff as their best hope to regain control of the riding association, and thus are currently actively supporting Ignatieff.
2. The “Congress” Ukrainians are not Liberals or Tories per se. They are a ethnic blocks that would support ANY party that will nominate one of their own to be candidate. They are upset because they thought successfully stabbing Augustine means the seat is their’s.
3. Ukrainians makes up of 4,000 people in the riding. Less then half of them are associated with the “Congress fraction”. Further, the “Congress fraction” did not support Augustine last time, and she still won by almost 10000 votes.
The whole “upset-ukrainians” episode will be blown over by Christmas. While the news coverages were rocky, all of them point to the fact that the attacked are based on intentional misinterpretation of Ignatieff’s work. Mike Duffy said it best when he called the Ukrainians’ protest one of the most ridiculous he has seen in his journalist career.
30 11 05 AndrewC
Ok, so now we have a well-known intellectual who got parachuted in from Harvard to use this riding as his spring-board to be PM one day. Well, let me tell you something, the people of E-L are the most community-minded people in all of the GTA. This means that they vote for those people that have demonstrated their loyalty to the riding, not to themselves, as Jean Augustine had done since she first ran. Hence, her popularity in the last election as an incumbent. This time around, people are not only mad at Liberal corruption, but they see through this flagrant attempt to go over the heads of a local riding association and take for granted the votes of local-minded voters. Well, once the hype has died down, the people will chose a man who has stayed in course in E-L, Mr. John "Cappy" Capobianco, one of their own.
30 11 05 Greg Phelan
This will depend on how the Ignatieff controversy plays out. If he remains the candidate, will he have the grassroots support to run the campaign? Having people to help knock on doors, bang in lawn signs and phone voters is an important part of the election campaign - if the local riding association is very unhappy with Ignatieff, they may not show up to help.
The other possibility is to see one of the individuals who is looking to be the candidate for the Liberals decides to run as an independent - this could result in an independent win (not likely, but not impossible), or a vote-split among the Liberals/ Independent liberals, making it a Conservative-NDP race (with the Conservatives having a pretty distinct advantage, based on the 2004 results)
30 11 05 Mike
This seemed to be a sure Liberal seat until Ignatieff's statement about Ukranians came into play. Granted, what he said was massively spinned out of proportion, but the damage was nevertheless done. When you have Liberals lobbying outside Liberal headquarters because of his appointment and statement, it can never be a good thing, especially when it makes headline news on the front page of the major newspapers. Question is: will it effect the campaign? I say yes. This event left a bad taste in the mouthes of Etobicoke constituents, especially the large percentage of minority voters (nevermind the fact that this riding has a huge Ukranian population!) People will feel comfortable voting for John since he's been their MPP before, is relatively moderate, has run Federally, and is generally liked and well known. He lost by about 9,000 votes last time, which is signficant. But if he is able to capture 4,000 of those votes, I think he will be able to take this riding my the slimmest of margins. This would be a HUGE upset, and how much would the Conservatives love to beat a star candidate in Toronto! (It kind of reminds me of Fletcher vs. the star Murray last time around in left-leaning Winnipeg)
30 11 05 L.O.
Michael Ignatieff will win Etobicoke-Lakeshore in spite of his own party's insensitivity towards the local riding association. It won't be because of local Liberals . . . Martin's organizers have alienated many of them. It will be because of the work that newer recruits will likely do and the fact that he was a 2-3 day national media story. It would be ridiculous to pretend as if that doesn't have an effect on the riding. Liberal hold, thanks to Michael Ignatieff and his actually non capital-"L" liberal stands and M.O.
30 11 05 Andrew
The only question here is whether the Liberal executive are actually upset enough to keep making an issue of Iggy's nomination for the duration of an eight week campaign.
I expect the issue will have disappeared by the end of the Christmas / New Years break in campaigning, but you never know . . .
29 11 05 Initial
Ignatieff's pro-war position will drive left-liberals to the NDP while dissatisfaction with Liberal corruption will drive right Liberals to the Tories. The significant Ukrainian population in this riding will shun Ignatieff over the nomination controversy and, particularly, his allegedly anti-Ukrainian comments. A lot of Polish voters will shun the Liberals as well. This will be a Tory pickup, quite possibly the only one within Toronto city limits.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
Michael Ignatieff has both his supporters and detractors, but since this is Toronto and not a strong NDP riding, that is really irrelevant. This would go Liberal even if they had a dog as the candidate. However, Michael Ignatieff could make a difference next election if the next Conservative leader is someone more moderate like Peter MacKay since the former Progressive Conservatives and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives have won this riding, but Stephen Harper's Republican style conservatism has no traction in Toronto.
29 11 05 Andy
Yes, the Liberals have chosen a star candidate to run in this riding. Yes, Michael Ignatieff is a great intellectual. Yes, he is a charismatic person. But...the voters of E-L are an extremely community-oriented group of voters who put most of their emphasis on the candidate's links to the community and what their history is in the community. Ignatieff has NO roots here whatsoever. He's simply using it as a launching-pad for his Prime Ministerial ambitions. The people of E-L will see through this and elect someone who not only has history in this riding, as Jean Augustine had, but someone who has time and again demonstrated their commitment to the people, not to their own ambitions.
28 11 05 Peter McG
How the Liberals continue to attract "star" candidates in the middle of being mired in scandalous filfth I'll never know. But Michael Ignatieff has been parachuted in to bump out Jean Augustine in order for him to soon be crowned "the next Trudeau." He will be elected in a cakewalk, the only question will be whether or not he will be a distraction of sorts due to his puzzlingly pro-Iraq War stance. Don't get me wrong, I think he is a fabulous intellect and just the type of person we need of more of in public life. But I am stunned that he, and others like Ken Dryden, Chris Axworthy, Glen Murray want to involve themselves with Liberal sleaze, in the middle of it's sleaziest moment ever. nor do I think they could necessarily be involved with the Tories or my own beloved NDP. Can't these people start their own "Smart Honest Person Party" instead of hooking up with Mr. Dithers (he of the pointless, and boundless ambition) and co.
28 11 05 CHC
I agree with others that it would a disservice to the country to not make him a part of government. But really, even if he wins, whether he will be a part of the government is far from certain. It is quite possible that the Liberals will lose, and Ignatieff would realize what a dumb thing to do to give up the job as the world’s pre-eminent political philosopher to be some silly opposition MP. What is more likely is that the Liberals will win again, and will keep him in the backbench. This government has not exactly been open to talents. The PMO crowd will no doubt see someone of Ignatieff’s calibre as a threat, and will deem the fifth row in the Commons a much safer place to keep him than the cabinet table.
28 11 05 L
The CBC reported that Jean Augustine announced that she will not seek re-election. As a result, Michael Ignatieff has had his nomination confirmed, so he will be running for the Liberals in this riding. Capobianco had his nomination confirmed for the Conservatives way back when the first non-confidence vote lost on a tie vote in the house.
So its gonna be Ignatieff vs. Capobianco.
I think Capobianco has a good shot of winning this riding as Ignatieff is a parachute candidate and hasn't lived in Toronto for quite a while as I understand. Capobianco has good community links.
28 11 05 Matthew N
This is fairly clear now that Dr. Ignatieff is running in the riding. Is a safe enough seat for the liberals, but a clobbering is in the works becahse of the sheer star power that he brings to the riding. This was a secret until a couple of days ago, and now, there is no question in my mind.
28 11 05 m.b.
Just a quick side note....Michael Ignatieff will likely be running in this riding for the Liberals now. Though I predict they will win, it should be closer on account of Capobianco being more moderate, and on account of a possible Ukranian protest vote against Ignatieff. Ukranians are displeased with him as a candidate, and some might vote for the candidate with the best shot at beating him, which is Capobianco; however, it is likely Ignatieff will win; this is, after all, Toronto.
28 11 05 watcher
The Globe and Mail has reported, as of Sunday, November 27, that Ukranian Canadians staged a protest outside the Liberal riding association office in Etobicoke-Lakeshore because the Liberals are apparently parachuting Michael Ignatieff into this riding while blocking every other Liberal who wants to contest him. With any luck, this seat might go Conservative by a moderate margin come election day, making a historic first time for a Conservative win the metro Toronto, although I think it will return to the Liberal fold in the election after that. Even if this seat becomes Conservative, it will be the protest votes that will prop the Conservatives to the top. The Conservatives will have a hard time keeping the protest votes for long -- unless the Liberals decide to absolutely bulldoze the democratic nomination process here and parachute some "star" candidate in here every election after this one! Which might be possible, given the Liberal arrogance shown over the years... okay I was being too cynical.
28 11 05 Mike T
Michael Ignatieff is widely agreed to be the foremost Canadian intellectual in the world in the area of politics. It would benefit not just the Liberal party but Canadian government in general to have him elected. The recent controversy about his "Ukranian comments" reflect smear tactics without full basis and without full understanding or comprehension of Ignatieff's writing. Granted, there is much of it to read, most of it rather heady, but Ignatieff has already responded in kind to these allegations and cannot help but be believable. His honesty is palpable and is something that many Canadians thirsting for fresh blood in government should be excited about.
Ignatieff has been touted rightly as a future Prime Minister. It would a disservice to both this riding and Canada to not make him a part of government.
28 11 05 P Pundit
Although the replacement of Jean Augustine with Michael Ignatieff makes this race a bit more uncertain, I'd still call this a Liberal victory.
1) First, I want to debunk a myth. Just because a riding often supports conservative candidates in provincial and municipal elections, it does not mean that the same riding will support a conservative candidate in a federal election. Toronto is full of examples of ticket-splitting: Eglinton-Lawrence sends Joe Volpe (L) to Ottawa but Karen Stintz (C) and Howard Moscoe (NDP) to City Hall, Beaches-East York sends Maria Minna (L) to Ottawa and Michael Prue (NDP) to Queen's Park, and Don Valley West sends John Godfrey (L) to Ottawa despite a history of electing Conservative city councillors like Joanne Flint (whom Godfrey clobbered in one federal election), Cliff Jenkins, and Jane Pitfield. Don't focus too much on provincial/municipal results -- they don't always mean a lot.
2) Second, "conservatism" at the provincial/municipal level in Ontario (and especially in Toronto) means something very different from "conservatism" at the federal level under the leadership of Stephen Harper. Ontario/Toronto conservatism is traditionally Red Tory, socially progressive (or, at least, not regressive), and economically prudent. I don't see how the current federal Conservative Party meets these descriptions. And as for the point raised by a previous writer that this riding is full of socially conservative Catholics who like Harper's same-sex marriage stance, my sense is that most people feel that the debate has been resolved, and whether they like the result or not, there's no point in reopening it. In fact, I'm willing to bet that SSM isn't on most voters' radar screens right now.
3) Third, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the complaints by a few members of the riding association executive about the nomination process. Association executives don't always get along with their candidates -- Ruby Dhalla in 2004, anyone? -- but these internal squabbles rarely if ever impact on the ultimate question of whom voters would rather have as prime minister.
4) Fourth and finally, Ignatieff is a good candidate. He's highly educated, he's articulate, and he's motivated to run a good campaign. While I don't doubt that he'll get some tough questions at the door about his stances on various issues, the average voter in E-L cares ultimately about the economy, social issues such as immigration, and, to a lesser extent, Canada's place in the world. As long as he can defend the Liberal record in these areas, he'll be fine.
28 11 05 Alan K
Forget about Augustine running for a fifth term. She's expected to step aside today to allow Michael Ignatieff to run in this riding. I'm not making any prediction, leaving this a toss-up between the Liberals and the Tories. John Capobianco's running again, and he's got name recognition, although the Tories have a hard time in Toronto, so it's not a cakewalk for him. As for Ignatieff, before running for the seat he has to get past the Ukrainian-Canadian Liberal FDA, because this is looking to be another Burnaby-Douglas circa 2004 again.
27 11 05 George J Hunter
Well, rumour has it Michael Ignatieff will be running in this riding. So, if I were the Conservative or NDP candidate, I would get my exercise inside on a treadmill rather than freezing my a$$ off cavassing.
This will not even be close. It will be a cakewalk for the Libs, with 60%+ of the vote.
27 11 05 Outside Looking In
The national media are reporting that Liberal sources have confirmed that Michael Ignatieff is running in Etobicoke-Lakeshore. The Conservatives surely believed before Ignatieff stepped forward that there was a 40% probability that John Capabianco could take this 416 riding. Capabianco is well funded, and has pulled some solid PR types into his organization. After taking a beating the last time out with a spread of 10K, Capabianco must have believed that the riding would be looking for change before throwing his name in the proverbial hat again.
Now that he's going to be facing Ignatieff, Capabianco has got to be wishing the he hadn't listened to the party hacks who had suggested that this would be his time. Ignatieff, clearly a star candidate for the Liberals, has the cachet of change without forcing this largely Liberal riding to vote Conservative. Ignatieff is far more likely to engage voters and to provide riding residents with a reason to head out into the dreary weather to vote on election day. He will have the challenge of answering the Ukranian constituency's trepidation regarding his Russian heritage, but Ignatieff's international track record of challenging governments to overcome the politics of division will certainly serve him well in rallying the Liberal troops in the riding. National media coverage every day for the last two weeks doesn't hurt either. I'm predicting an Ignatieff landslide.
27 11 05 Liberty Canada
I understand that Michael Ignatieff will be replacing Ms Augustine as liberal candidate. If so, it's his in a walk.
27 11 05 Sam M.
Now that Michael Ignatieff is in mix in this riding, it will be a high-profile competition. His international reputation as a political thinker and academic in conjunction with his charm will undoubtedly bring the Liberals a continued seat in this riding.
26 11 05 A.S.
For some reason--maybe because it was such an effective litmus-test combo of PC-Tory "Etobicoke" and Reform-a-Tory "Lakeshore"--this became 2004's top CPC target + result in Toronto. (And it says something about shifting party dynamics that the CPC-Grit differential tended to be *broader*, not narrower, in the affluent and erstwhile PC-friendly northern half of the riding.) Maybe it promised to be the same all over again; but Michael Ignatieff's promised candidacy likely puts the kibosh on however-slender Tory chances but good--it also reinstates (albeit a notch to the south) the Gillespie-Wilson-Rock tradition of middle-Etobicoke cabinet-material heavies. Then again, a worst-case scenario might make Ignatieff the next Glen Murray--or at least allow him to suffer a Ken Drydenesque scare en route to cakewalk. But this *is* Toronto. And one thing appears certain: barring any bold country-wide reversal in fortune, the NDP--which blew its '04 deposit in this one-time polling stronghold--is headed further down the road to oblivion...
26 11 05 Jim
Ignatieff running here according to today's Star. Got that celebrity thing going and can't see him losing - after all he's the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, just as soon as Martin suffers a nationwide loss
26 11 05 ThornhillM
CTV news seems to indicate Ignatieff is going to run here. I can't imagine it would cost the Liberals votes in the aggregate, especially because they would invest resources in the Professor.
26 10 05 paul sagan
There is no question in my mind that Ms. Augustine will once again carry this riding. I'm just being realistic here, and for one I am not happy about this one bit. The ND's haven't carried this riding federally since '72, and alot has changed since then, the influx of condo and town-house development has greatly increased the number of wealth and presumably Conservative voting people into this riding, and the election of city counciller Mark Grimes has set the course for a sort of gentrification of the Lakeshore area, in the mould of the Beach. In my opinion McHugh was not a very strong candiate for this area,didn't she run in Etobs-centre provicially? and lets face it Irene Jones was defeated provincially in 2003 and she was a high profile candiate here, somewhat. It'll be a tight race between Capabianco (if he runs) and Augustine, the ND leaning poplace will strategically vote grit(with the exception of me of course.)
23 05 05 Bear and Ape
We can not see this going Conservative. They got clobbered last year (and this was suppose to be one of those Toronto ridings that they could win) and why would it be any different this year. The party is too cowboy for any wins in Toronto. What the Conservatives need to win in Toronto is more Belinda types...too bad she's a Liberal now.
16 05 05 Suicide Wing
A few points: NDP base of support is around 14% and unlikely to increase significantly (the demographic shifts over the last few years have dealt a serious blow to NDP fortunes in the forseeable future). This is significant because the only times the Tories have held the riding federally was when the NDP was competitive in a serious way. Federally, it has been won by the Liberals in every election since 1976 expect for the Mulroney sweep in 84/88 (and 88 was only a two party matchup with the Liberal candidate dropping out and the NDP losing by 800 votes). I wouldn't place to much weight on Augustine's name recognition either. I doubt how many people would be able to name her as her MP. My own opinion of the riding is that it has a similar demographic/political profile to Brampton/Mississauga in the early 1990's when the Harris machine owned the suburbs of Toronto. Given the right candidate and central campaign, this could Conservative. However, Harper and the Alberta Liberation Army are not what people that might be conservatively inclined in lakeshore are going to vote for.
15 05 05 MF
I think this the riding the Tories are likely to pick up in 416 (the other possibility being another Etobicoke riding), esp. if Jean Augustine retires. John Capobianco did quite respectably for a Tory in 416, and the NDP has enough of a presence (rare in suburban Toronto) to make a difference in the result. A lot of people in this riding are socially conservative Catholics who are likely attracted to Harper's opposition to same-sex marriage.
Prediction: 41% CON, 38% LIB, 17% NDP, 4% GRN
14 05 05
Capobianco did a solid job organizing and GOTV quite well at last weeks nomination meeting giving him a solid edge over the much older Kells; who gave a horrible speech. So much for Kells beating Capobianco (BTW votes were 229 / 181)
Rumour has it that Jean Augustine won't be running again which will give Capobianco the edge this time around. The largest problem in election 2004 for the Tories in this riding was name recognition; a problem that fades with a new/unknown Liberal candidate. It will be interesting (if the rumours are true) to see who the Liberals pick to fight this riding. As a previous poster noted this riding very often goes Tory in provincial and municipal elections although it has been Liberal federally since 1993.
11 05 05 young penguin
Kells is a much better opponent than Capobianco if he is selected-- Kells isn't a true Mike Harris man. Also, he isn't a Harper type ideologue. That said, the riding is 39% immigrant and Augustine (an immigrant herself) better represents it. Any case, I don't think personality matters. Liberal MPP Laurel Broten, a lawyer, (who has less appeal to NDP voters than Augustine and was more-or-less a political novice) defeated Kells in the last provincial election handily (by over 10 points). The national numbers are what matters and I think the conservatives are going to take a beating 'cause it is an election no one really wants.
Last time, the ratio of actual vote percentage in the riding to the popular vote percentage was 1.37 for the Liberals, 1.03 for the Conservatives and 0.92 for the NDP. Based on a ratio of national poll numbers (32% Lib, 30% Con, 19% NDP) and the last election the math works out to something like 44% Lib, 31% Con, 18% NDP, 5% Grn. The conservatives are dreaming if they think they can win here. That said, I do think the Conservatives (and NDP) will have a better showing. Prediction: 37% Lib, 33% Con, 20% NDP, 5% Grn-- still a comfortable victory for Augustine. Nothing to see here. Move along.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This maybe the Tories strongest riding in Toronto, but they have basically no chance of winning it since people of Toronto cannot stand Harper's Republican/Reform conservatism. This will probably be their best showing in Toronto since they will likely crack the 30% mark, but the Tories still will not win this riding. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they don't win a single poll in the 416 area code. Jean Augustine is not the strongest MP, but she will easily be re-elected regardless of who the Tories put up against her.
08 05 05 Jake M
Mean Jean has this locked up. Harper himself could run in this riding and lose. Throw in the fact that Martin has not only rode the popularity the party usually has in TO but he has thrown A LOT of money to the City of Toronto and you can count on this riding staying Liberal for years to come.
08 05 05 Aric H
Jean Augustine will be re-elected for the Liberals. Last year pre-election predictions were that the NDP had a chance here but I don't think it has the numbers from what I can tell and niether do the Conservatives unless they go up in Ontario.
02 05 05 Craig
The Conservatives may have a stronger candidate, but this is the City of Toronto, Liberal country. They will never win any seats in the 416 area code until they alienate their supporters out west and elsewhere. It would take 10 Adscams for the Liberals to lose many seats in Toronto. As well, Morley Kells has baggage from the Harris-Eves days which does not fly here. Predicted results: LIB 44%, CPC 29%, NDP 21%, GRN 5%, others 1%.
02 05 05 punditman
Whether Kells or Capobianco is here, I predict a Tory victory. Etobicoke residents are more blue than their liberal downtown counterparts. They have voted conservative mostly provincially and always send conservative city councillors to city hall. The Etobicoke liberals are all unknown backbenchers, and will not be missed by the voters. While most of Toronto will go red next election, you can colour this riding, not to mention the rest of Etobicoke, a Tory blue.
Editor’s Note: Provincially, Lakeshore is much more a bell riding than a conservative riding as you claimed. It is currently held by a Liberal, and by Ruth Grier (NDP Cab Min) prior to the Harris years.
27 04 05 JT Tory
Morley Kells is running for the Conservative Party nomination and should win. (His only opponent is that lobbyist, John Capobianco, who got clobbered last time by Jean Augustine. Kells has out-sold Capobianco by a margin of 3-1.)
Kells has won 5 elections at the provincial/municipal level. He has big-time name recognition and a profile. He has a huge network with the ethnic communities. (Age won't be a factor because he's the same age as the incumbent.)
Last time the Tories ran an unknown lobbyist and got smoked. Kells can beat the Liberals. It will be close but he will do it.

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