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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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René Berthiaume
Jo-Ann Fennessey
Bonnie Jean-Louis
Pierre Lemieux

L'Hon. Don Boudria

2004 Result/Résultats:
Don Boudria
Alain Lalonde
Martin Cauvier
Roy Fjarlie
Tim Bloedow

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 Victor A.
The only Ontario riding where French is the main spoken language and despite CP candidate being a bit too right-of-centre according to some pundits, it won't matter with the current Eastern Ontario numbers. The lack of incumbency will help to CP pick it up as well. Who could have thought a couple of months ago that this would happen.
12 01 06 H. L. S.
This riding should be TCTC or even Conservatives. Boudria, a well known local candidate in the past won by only 5000 in the last election. Now he is not running, plus the polling trends; this riding should be treated like other eastern rural riding - small "c" conservative leaning, and will mostly likely elect a Conservative.
Putting this under the Liberals now is unrealistic.
12 01 06
I believe that the Conservatives are going to take this riding for a few reasons
-Boudria is gone
-general reaction against liberals
-The conservatives have a "pro-family" candidate who has a lot of signs out there and has been campaigning for a while
-Christian heritage party candidate Tim Bloedow is not running this election. From what I've heard, some people did not support Lalonde last year because of his stance on same-sex marriage, so almost all of those votes will probably go to the Conservatives (could make the difference between winning and losing)
06 01 06 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to too close to call. With the current numbers in Ontario, this could go Conservative, although I still think it will go Liberal. Democratic Space marks this as a solid Tory riding, but I think they may be overestimating Boudria's popularity towards the end. The fact he dropped by such a big margin last time suggests voters were sending a message to him that it was time to retire and it was a message he got. So I think the numbers from last time around are probably what they would be assuming the overall results in Ontario are the same, but the Tories will do a bit better if their numbers remain higher.
03 01 06 Brad
GPR should be, in the least, in the Too-Close-To-Call category for now. Boudria was a Chretien-era heavy hitter, and it stands to reason that a large degree of the Liberals' electoral success in this riding stems from his prominence. Well, Boudria isn't running this time. Provincially it's a Liberal riding (J-M Lalonde pulls in big wins here), but that doesn't seem to translate into federal support. Boudria won by only 10% last time. The Conservatives message sells well in eastern Ontario. With 3 weeks left, I cannot say with confidence right now that it would go to the CPC, but what I can say is that this is a riding which could easily go either way. (Though if the election were held today, based on current polling numbers I would call Conservative).
28 12 05 Steve G
I have to agree with Geoff - this riding is definitely Too Close To Call. By all accounts the Conservatives are picking up steam in Eastern, Central and Southwestern Ontario (pretty much all of Southern Ontario outside the GTA) and it would take a major effort on the part of the Liberals to prevent this mixed urban/rural open seat from being swept up in the blue tide. After Jan. 23, Ottawa-Vanier and Kingston could very well be the only Liberal seats left in Eastern Ontario.
24 12 05 Geoff Brookes
This riding is now too close to call.
Reasons: The Strategic Counsel poll dated December 22, 2005 shows an 8% lead for the conservatives in Eastern Ontario, which includes this riding. At 43%, the Conservatives are up 3.6% in polls in this region compared to the 2004 election, while the liberals are down 4.4%, to 35%, compared to the 2004 election, for the Eastern Ontario region. If these changes are applied mathematically to the results obtained by the respective Candidates in the 2004 election for this riding (total 49,986 votes cast in this riding in 2004), this would result in a decrease in votes for the liberal candidate of 2,207, and an increase for the votes for the Conservative candidate of 1,816 votes. If these changes are added (subtracted) from the actual votes cast for the candidates in the 2004 election, this would result in projected votes for the liberal candidate of 21,714 votes, and 20,545 for the Conservative candidate. This leaves a pluarality of about 1,200 votes as projected.
The other candidates are not anywhere near enough to have within 10% of a plurality of votes for this riding, even with changes in 2005 polling, and so are not discussed in this submission.
I have calculated the "too close to call margin" as being the margin of error in the Strategic Counsel poll, as published at 6.1%, plus an additional 2% for potential swings in voting, for a total of 8.1% as too close to call. When the total votes cast in the 2004 election are multiplied by this factor, it yields 4,049 as the too close to call margin.
Since the projected pluarality is far less than the too close to call margin, the result is too close to call based on current polling for the region.
09 12 05
Alain Lalonde announced today in Le Droit that he is withdrawing his candidacy as an independent. He claimed that his candidacy would actually have split the Liberal vote and given an advantage to the Conservatives.
He admits that he wants the Liberals to win and in the past few weeks has talked about defending the "liberal tradition" in the area.
He also had earlier told newspapers that he would consider running for the Liberals to which the Liberal riding president said that they didn't want candidates rejected by other parties.
To confuse matters more, Lalonde also claims that in the next election, if Harper isn't the CPC leader, that he'll be acclaimed as the next Conservative candidate. Prior to this, he had claimed that if he won as an independent that Harper, who he referred to as "my good and honest leader" would let him become a Conservative MP.
In all honesty, locals were beginning to wonder about Alain's logic because many of his statements make no sense and contradict earlier statements of his.
07 12 05 Frootmig
I think the fact that Jean-Marc Lalonde chose not to give up his seat in the Provincial Parliament and run in the federal election is telling of how the Liberals feel this riding will vote. Alain Lalonde will be a non-factor as Pierre Lemieux has been running an effective campaign over the last 6 months and he will continue to receive a large amount of support from Incumbent Conservative MPs in the Ottawa area that hold safe seats.
06 12 05 Rebel
Is Alain Lalonde still running as an independent? He was supposed to when the Conservative summer nomination gave the candidacy to Pierre Lemieux...whether a vote split amongst the Conservatives happens may well determine who takes the riding...
05 12 05 Eric Duncan
There is literally no way possible that the Conservatives can win this riding. Alain Lalonde, the former Conservative candidate in the 2004 election, is running as an independent because he says the riding association is full of right-wing religious fanatics. Both Lalonde and Conservative candidate Pierre Lemieux will split the vote enough to allow a huge runaway for new Liberal Rene Berthiaume. Liberals won last time and now even more than ever, they will run away this time around as long as the Conservative are portrayed by themselves are divisive, unorganized, and uncooperative.
22 11 05 A.S.
Actually, I'm almost willing to make a reverse claim; last time out, people voted *against* Don Boudria more than they voted against the Liberal Party. That is, he earned more than the usual constituents' enmity by being so close to the eye of the Chretien-sleaze storm--not enough to be defeated, but enough to be scared. And now with a fresh start, it's conceivable (esp. given the split in the local Conservative ranks) that even with a relatively nothing candidate, the Liberals might actually *gain* ground--though presumably not t/w the 70+ percentile that for years was habitually Boudria's. It's true that rural Eastern Ontario's taken a bold turn t/w the right; but as the most Francophone riding in Ontario and one with a biiiiig Grit history, this isn't quite like the rest--it's just not Scots/Irish or exurban-yuppie enough. Glengarry's a rump; Cumberland/Russell's a rump. Okay, GPR is more likely to fall in a 40-seat Liberal humiliation scenario now than in 1984--however likely that is...
14 11 05 Glengarry_guy
Unfortunately, I think the Liberals are going to win again in G-P-R. It's a very strong liberal riding, although it lost some support in the last election. I'm expecting to see that support drop even further seeing Don Boudria is not going to be there, but it'll still be a liberal win!I wish the NDP could make some big gains in this riding!
25 10 05 Paul
This riding will go Conservative this time, even if the CPC does not do better elsewhere. People voted for Don Boudria, not for the Liberal Party. The riding is a small-c conservative one and with a Francophone candidate French speakers will not be afraid to vote Conservative. Relatively easy win for the CPC (5 points at least).
24 10 05 Steph
1) the past Conservative candidate who made those negative commnets about the new candidate is seen as a bit of a nutcase/sore loser by the people in this riding. For the record as well, there was no "takover" during the nomination, the old candidate withdrew.
2) It isn't an MPP who is running for the Liberals, its a relatively unknown older fellow who owns a funeral home. I can't even think of his name and the newspapers have already been suspicious of the guy with cartoons of him with his hand out for money saying "My turn please".
In the past elections people were more loyal to Boudria than to the Liberal party. Furthermore, the Liberals had a very divisive nomination process with allegations of some shading things that happened. Because of this I've heard a lot of Liberal volunteers saying that they're not helping this time.
3) the Conservative candidate (Pierre Lemieux) has been campaigning all summer while the Libs haven't done anything. Lemieux is in the papers almost every week. It looks like the Conservatives will have a very strong showing this time. Its gonna be a tight race but I think the Conservatives will just barely win it.
04 10 05 M. Lunn
It is true the Conservatives are strongest in Eastern Ontario, but they lost this by ten points last time around, so although last time around was one of their best showings ever, even better than 1984 (37% in 2004 vs. 34% in 1984), I still think it will be another election before they take this one. This riding has a large Francophone community, 60%, and the party's past policies on Bilingualism will make it difficult to do well amongst Francophone voters. I expect them to take all the predominately Anglophone polls, but without the Francophone areas, they cannot win this. However, I do agree this is no longer a safe liberal riding and will likely go Conservative in the next few elections, but this time around the liberals will hold it for at least another term.
09 08 05 Craig
This being a rural riding in Eastern Ontario, I believe that having a staunch conservative and perceived fundamentalist will help, not hurt, here (after all, most of the Conservatives in the region are strong so-cons). The comments from Don Boudria and his staunch support for gay marriage will swing this riding blue. Not to mention the Conservative is bilingual and that will win a lot of English and French-speaking Catholic voters, which number to quite a large number here and are reachable for the Tories, much unlike in Quebec. Plus, many Conservative resources from Eastern Ontario will be sent out here, since there are many safe Conservative seats in the region. Also looking at the polls, much of the Liberal gains have been concentrated in urban and suburban areas primarily in the Greater Toronto Area. In the end, I think this will be a historical pickup for the Conservatives no matter the results nationally. Predicted results: CPC 43%, LIB 38%, NDP 12%, GRN 6%, others 1%.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Eastern Ontario is definitely the best part of the province for a Tory pickup and is the only region where they are still ahead of the liberals in Ontario. However, with last time's Tory candidate Alain Lalonde claiming the riding has been hijacked by religious fundamentalist and the fact a former liberal MPP plans to run here, I think the liberals will hold it this time, although I don't think this is as safe a liberal riding as it once was and I do believe the Tories will likely win this sometime in the near future.
12 05 05 Kirk Sauer
Liberal Star Candidate Alert:
>From CFRA.com, May 11th:
"Jean-Marc Lalonde is looking at following John Baird into the federal political arena. The Glengarry-Prescott-Russell MPP says there is a chance he will run for the seat of longtime Liberal Don Boudria. Lalonde says he plans to make his final decision by the end of the week."
11 05 05 JC
I've heard rumors Jean-Marc Lalonde the Provincial MPP might run here to try and hold the seat, if that happens I'm sure it's staying Liberal. If Boudria ran again, like I said this would be liberal easily because it's him, yet this is an interesting riding, It's been a longtime-liberal stronghold and it should remain that way, yet Alain Lalonde came close last time to winning this. But I think the Libs will hold.
11 05 05 JH
It looked like he conservatives had a shot at this one, but that has changed. According to the previous conservative candidate Alain Lalonde's comment on the TV news last night the CPC riding association was been somewhat taken over by right-wing religious types and therefore he is not getting the nomination and going to run as an independent. He indiciated that if he wins he will ask Harper to join conservative caucus.
As a consequence of all of this the conservative vote will likely get split between him and whomever the conservative riding association chooses to run. There is some talk (in the Ottawa Sun today) that the Liberals may get Jean-marc Lalonde the MPP for the riding to run.
This riding has been Liberal almost constantly since the 1870's. Combine that, a conservative vote split, and a reasonably decent Liberal candidate and the Liberals should be able to take this.
11 05 05 canrocks
francontarien = Libéral stronghold, even if Boudria's gone. His good deeds won't soon be forgotten.
11 05 05 Bear and Ape
Don Boudria isn't running again, incumbant power isn't there and this race was close last year. Maybe this should be changed to "too close to call"?
11 05 05 JH
It looked like he conservatives had a shot at this one, but that has changed. According to the previous conservative candidate Alain Lalonde's comment on the TV news last night the CPC riding association was been somewhat taken over by right-wing religious types and therefore he is not getting the nomination and going to run as an independent. He indiciated that if he wins he will ask Harper to join conservative caucus.
As a consequence of all of this the conservative vote will likely get split between him and whomever the conservative riding association chooses to run. There is some talk (in the Ottawa Sun today) that the Liberals may get Jean-marc Lalonde the MPP for the riding to run.
This riding has been Liberal almost constantly since the 1870's. Combine that, a conservative vote split, and a reasonably decent Liberal candidate and the Liberals should be able to take this.
09 05 05 Canadian Redhead
I think the Conservatives will pull off a squeaker here. The Conservative vote has been growing in GPR, the Liberals are troubled and they've lost their 'star' candidate. As well, many of the ridings in the area (excluding la ville d'Ottawa) tend to have strong Conservative showings.
08 05 05 paul westwood
JC was right, Boudria would have won, but only if he did run. Now that the well known and long time MP of Glengarry—Prescott—Russell has retired, this riding is up for grabs. The trend in the riding has suggested that local voters wish to move to the conservative side. Also, the trend now in Ontario ridings (outside the GTA) show a large shift to the conservatives. This is the conservatives to win.
08 05 05 RWA
Boudria has retired. This will probably narrow the 5,000 vote gap but it's unclear by how much. This looks like a riding that will go to whoever wins the election. Probably a Liberal hold but a good Tory camapign could steal it.
07 05 05 Robert
CBC news reported last night (may 6th)that Don Boudria will not run again.
07 05 05 Shane
News Flash: Boudria is not running again. This riding is up in the air, and with a strong campaign from Lalonde again, it will go to the Tories.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
Traditionally this was a very safe riding, but if you look at how far Don Boudria fell from 2000 to 2004 (70% in 1997, 68% in 2000, while only 47%), while the rise in the Conservative vote (22% Ref/PC vote in 1997, 28% CA/PC vote in 2000 and 37% in 2004) the trends definitely show this riding is heading in a conservative direction. Eastern Ontario is where the Conservatives are strongest in Ontario, so it is only logical they will gain even more seats in that region this time around. I would give Don Boudria a 60% chance of re-election and 40% chance of a Conservative upset since this is a rural riding and Conservatives are strong in rural ridings even if they traditionally didn't vote conservative, while weak in urban ridings, even if they traditionally went conservative.
04 05 05 Craig
Here comes a shocker. This is NOT a safe Liberal seat anymore (their margin shrank considerably to under 5,300 votes as opposed to the traditional 15,000+ vote blowouts) and Don Boudria's comments on same-sex marriage saying "I'm Catholic and Supporting Gay Marriage, You Don't Like it? - Too Bad" are going to come back to haunt him. Throw in the AdScam fallout and this rural riding will join all its peers in eastern Ontario - in the Conservative column, although marginally. Predicted results: CPC 44%, LIB 40%, NDP 9%, GRN 6%.
02 05 05 JC
Boudria will win, despite the fact it was close last time, this riding has never gone Conservative in almost 40 years.

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