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11:25 PM 05/05/2005
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Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Verona Jackson
Shane Jolley
Jill McIllwraith
Larry Miller

Larry Miller

2004 Result/Résultats:
Larry Miller
Ovid Jackson
Sebastian Ostertag
Alex Drossos
Steven J. Taylor

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Date 11 01 06 Riding Savvy
I am including that part of the riding that includes Owen Sound. That means you have to divert from some riding histories and move over to the Grey Simcoe riding of past days..held by Gus Mitges and Percy Noble since 1957. Other riding revisions skew you so far west that today, you would be talking about Huron Bruce!
09 01 06 R. Meingast
I suggest re: "This riding has voted Conservative every year since 1957 except for the three terms of Ovid Jackson," that you forgot Liberal MPs Ross Whicher (1968-74) and Crawford Douglas (1974-79). Also, the riding boundaries and name has changed since 1957, so I can ask which riding are you talking about going back to 1957?
07 01 06 Steve G
Considering Bear&Ape have, in other riding discussions on this board, referred to the Conservative Party as a party of "Yosemite Sams", I hardly think that you could accuse them of having a pro-CPC bias. They call ridings as they see them, and in this case they are absolutely on the ball. Every poll now shows the Conservatives either tied with the Liberal nationally or in the lead. The Ontario numbers still display a Liberal lead, but only by a few points. Consider that the Libs creamed the Tories in Ontario in 2004 by 14 percentage points, meanwhile Larry Miller defeated the relatively popular Liberal incumbent by 5000 votes, one of the largest CPC pluralities in the province. With momentum swinging in favour of the Tories, even outer-GTA ridings like Halton are on the cusp of flipping. And a riding like this in Central Ontario - a rural/exurban riding, where the gun registry is still an issue, where people are less averse to conservatism be it economic or social - is going to flip BACK to the Liberals?? Not a chance!
Prediction: CPC 52%, Lib 33%, NDP 12%, Green and others 3%
05 01 06 Brain Trust
It's laughable to think that the liberals have a chance here. Have you seen the polling in this ridiung? Miller is up by 15%+. This riding likes a maverick representative, one whom they think will stand up for them. Just as Bill Murdoch offers that provincially, and as such probably has the seat until he either dies or retires.
Larry has that same independent streak in him. That's why he polls are so high for him, and it's why he'll win so handily in a few weeks.
04 01 06 R. Meingast
The NDP candidate in 2004 received 4350 more votes than the NDP candidate in 2000 (2166). So, where did those 4350 new NDP voters come from? Could it be that the combination of a young, attractive NDP candidate in 2004 plus the anger voters felt (and desire to punish Chretien even 'tho he was retired and Martin was new leader) at Liberal MP Ovid Jackson's old boss Jean Chretien were the reasons responsible for those 4350 voters going to the NDP?? Can new Liberal candidate Verona Jackson win some or all of those 4350 voters back? What about the Greens? They took 2076 votes from somebody in their first election in 2004. Can the Liberal candidate win some of those voters back?
Remember, anything can happen in politics. In 2000, the Alliance thought they would win so much that a news crew from CTV was at their headquarters in Owen Sound to film the victory celebration. It never happened. The CTV people left out the back door and didn't even have the courtesy to visit the Liberal headquarters where the real victory party was.
04 01 06 Reality check
I am fascinated by Randy's somewhat blind faith for the Liberals in this riding, this time. This riding has voted Conservative every year since 1957 except for the three terms of Ovid Jackson -- and he would have only won one of those if the votes on the right had been unified!
03 01 06 R. Meingast
B and A replies with a mish-mash of cherry-picked "facts" and rather arrogant and loose "logic." For one example, I think you could argue that Jackson lost in 2004 because voters were tired of his boss Jean Chretien, and so would be similar as to what B and A alleges happened to the local Tories in 1993. By the way, peculiar "logic" when he mentions what happened in 1993 here and then in point #6 states that he is only concerned with the "here and now" and doesn't want me yapping about the old days...
01 01 06 Bear and Ape
So you want know what we know, eh? Well here it is:
1. We know the Tory's have gained strength in SW Ontario
2. We know that the CPC is poised to gain seats in Ontario and possibly in the "more Liberal" cities like in London and Kitchener.
3. We know that the Larry Miller was able to beat a long-time Liberal incumbant by over 4500 votes.
4. We know that Ovid Jackson won in 93 due to the Conservative meltdown and then kept his seat due to PC/Alliance vote splitting.
5. We know how to do basic math, it'd take more than 50% of the NDP vote from 2004 to go to the Liberals to defeat the CPC. That is with the assumption that no Liberal votes bleed anywhere else (yeah, like that's going to happen).
6. We know that the NDP is never strong federally in rural Ontario ridings outside the north. Please do not go yapping about pre 1993 numbers, we are concerned with the here and now, not what was then and could be again, if...and only if...
7. We know that Larry Miller is the current incumbant and that gives him a slight edge to any challenger
8. We know that our predictions, though perhaps not without some bias, is based on logic and facts and not wishful thing and "alot of ifs"
9. We know that others on this site realise point #8 and would not ask the inital question, "What do we know".
Bottom line is that all arrows are pointing to a safe Conservative win...once again.
28 12 05 R. Meingast
As for this riding being a "sure" thing for the Conservatives, it might do well to remember that the riding has a long history of electing Liberal MPs as well as Conservative ones... It is by no means a "sure" thing for the Conservatives. The NDP and the Greens diverted more than 8,500 votes away from the Liberals in this riding in the 2004 election. How many of those 8,500 voters that the Liberal candidate can attract in this election will be the difference between victory and defeat.
23 12 05 Caring
Both Harper and Martin visited the riding before the writ. Neither will be here before January 23rd. No other leader will visit, so issues in this riding will be determined by and for this riding, rather than nationally. And people who praise Miller in his first, short term, seem to drastically outweigh those who praised Mrs. Jackson's husband for any accomplishments in his 10 years in office. The riding did not always seem to be that Liberal's first priority, and I sense that feeling may be carrying over to his wife's candidacy, with questions about why she's running.
22 12 05
The Conservatives need to win in this riding if they are to improve upon the number of seats they won in Ontario in the last election; you can forget about the party making gains anywhere else in Ontario if things go wrong in this largely rural riding. This is the closest thing the Conservatives have to a 'sure thing' in this province. Of course, the tally could be close if the Liberals pick up some of the votes that went to the New Democrats last time around. If an experienced and respected politician like Ovid Jackson can lose to Larry Miller then Jackson's wife, Verona, will face a daunting challenge. I predict Miller will win by 5000 votes.
21 12 05 R. Meingast
Just to respond to writer below... "B.A." says "Alot of "ifs" need to come through in order to get a LIberal victory here. The big if is NDP votes, which is really too small to be much of an effect. >> Actually, the NDP votes made a big difference last time in losing the election for the Liberal incumbent. "B.A." asks "was the 2004 NDP candidate known?" Actually, yes, the NDP candidate was fairly well known in the riding. His mother is a long-time local activist and many-time NDP candidate herself. Her son, who ran for the NDP in 2004, is an accomplished young university student and well-known local musician. Then "B.A." states "We don't live in the riding, but we're guessing the answer is, "No"." I think that says it all there - they don't live in the riding... So what do they know??
I'm not saying the Conservatives won't win locally, just that the Liberals can win if things go their way...
19 12 05 Conservative Insider
You can judge how much Stephen Harper wants a member back by how often he visits a tight riding. Larry Miller is not so safe he wouldn't benefit from a visit, but -- if you live in this riding -- don't sit by the phone waiting for a call that Stephen is coming to town. Larry's on his own, and a tough campaign against Verona is not one he'll win.
18 12 05 Bear and Ape
Alot of "ifs" need to come through in order to get a LIberal victory here. The big if is NDP votes, which is really too small to be much of an effect. Now let's ask some new questions, the 2006 candidate is a relative unknown, was the 2004 NDP candidate known? We don't live in the riding, but we're guessing the answer is, "No". Is the Conservative incumbent running? Yes. Is the CPC up in the polls in SW Ontario? Yes. Is this a Conservative riding? Yes. Looks like all arrows are pointing at another Conservative victory here.
13 12 05 R. Meingast
I'm gonna go out on a limb and state that I think the Liberals can take this riding IF they get enough of the NDP vote... If you look at the results from 2004, you can see that the votes the NDP candidate received made the difference in toppling the Liberal incumbent Ovid Jackson. This time Ovid's wife Verona is running for the Liberals and a relative unknown is running for the NDP. Verona is well known in the riding and can't be counted out... Again, I think it depends on how many vote NDP in the riding...
05 12 05 D.C.
Larry Miller's campaign was so quick off the blocks; the campaign office was up and running within 24 hours of the writ. And it seems to be in a good spot, very visible. I think I have heard more about Larry Miller in the first week and practically nothing about anyone else in this campaign. The Liberals have a good candidate but what looks like an uncertain organization, so it will be interesting. I think the incumbent is well positioned to take this riding.
27 05 05 A.S.
Consider the possibility that the defeat Larry Miller smelled was not personal, but that of his party's chances at governing. Then again, if he *did* smell personal peril, it might be a sign that in its ambition, the Harper Conservatives are losing both the ex-PCs *and* the "Reform Conservatives"--and considering that incredibly popular local Tory MPP Bill Murdoch is more of a "Chuck Cadman populist" by nature (right down to common 60s rock-circuit roots), that'd mean a lot in B-G-OS. So where would the Reformers go to--the NDP? After all, Murdoch nearly made a paper deal w/the provincial Dippers to preserve their official party status. Trouble is, the NDP's got no Bruce-Grey roots to speak of; anything they could have developed Rae-era was soaked straight up by the Murdoch machine--but if Ontario was like BC, this kind of seat definitely would be NDP-amenable. But Ontario *isn't* like BC. So barring a shocker, it's the Liberals versus the Tories. And barring another shocker, Tories are likely to prevail w/incumbent's advantage.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
4,000 vote margin, tories up in the polls, popular MP. tory win. Remeber, the incumbent often benifits by 100 to 1000 votes, last time that was the Liberal, this time that's the Tory, that shift alone should be enough.
08 05 05 Ryan Smiley
Miller could not campaign at all and still hold this riding. Ovid Jackson was popular, but with him out of the picture for the Liberals Larry Miller will likely gain even more votes. Easy Tory win.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
This was one of the strongest Conservative ridings in Ontario. I believe it was the 7th best showing so based on the current polls, they should have no trouble holding this one no matter how big a re-bound the liberals make. The liberals would need a 20 point lead to even have a chance at regaining this, so even if the Conservatives lose the next election, Larry Miller will be going back to Ottawa.
01 05 05 MC
Larry Miller probably can smell defeat. Otherwise why would he break party line and ask for a delay for election call.

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