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12:11 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
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10:53 AM 16/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Harold Glenn Albrecht
Len Carter
Lynn Myers
Kristine Yvonne Stapleton

Lynn Myers

2004 Result/Résultats:
Lynn Myers
Frank Luellau
Len Carter
Kris Stapleton

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 01 06 Howitzer
Well the icing on the conservative cake seems to be slipping.
Will the real Harold Albrecht please stand up and tell us what he thinks.
It is sad that a devout man like Pastor Albrecht is willing to deny his beliefs for a chance at a seat. Does he think if he wins he'll get away with saying what he thinks in Ottawa? He won't if he wants to be re-elected.
The missing part of Albrechts resume reads like a Stpehen King horror if you are a woman, a minority, a progressive voter or, God forbid, gay.
Rumour has it Albrecht is a card carrying Promise Keeper (yes, the ones who believe God named men because he knew women would follow)
The article in today's Globe about Pastor Albrecht being shushed into
a kitchen away from the media and then the media being told he was
too busy to talk - while they could seem him standing in the kitchen alone - are the proof in the pudding if you ask me.
Unfortunately, the local rag (the Record) seems pretty focused on getting the Tories elected.
If Albrecht does win he better hope its a Tory majority because if its not it will be a short, short career in Ottawa when voters find out what he really believes.
20 01 06 Fodor
Any indication that the CPC or its candidates really do have a hidden social agenda, as the Liberals have been suggesting, may continue to shift the tide in favour of the Liberals. The Tory candidate in this riding has done just that, with his beliefs surfacing about condoms causing AIDS. This guy can and will be painted as an extremist by his opponents in the last days of the campaign, and this should help to swing undecided voters and "soft" Tories to the Liberals.
19 01 06 PET
DTC is overly analyzing some small items while missing the big picture. Any local CAW signs are more than balanced off by Buzz' antics, which are a national story. Albrecht's old letters to the editor are not getting any media traction and are not in the same ballpark as Luellau's comments from the last campaign. Like the Liberal national campaign, the local Liberals think they can run the same campaign as last time and have the same results. What they are both missing is that the opponent is different and the national mood is different. Harper is running an effective, error-free campaign and Albrecht is far better connected locally, far more organized on the ground, and far clearer in explaining Tory policy.
19 01 06 PFR
DTC seems to me to be a very confused person. First he says that Lynn Myers will get the union vote from the workers at Budd Canada. What he does not realize is that most Budd workers do not even live in Kitchener-Conestoga.
The next day he claims that either the NDP or the Green Party candiate have a greater change of winning the riding than the Conservatives. This is a strange claim because if all the union will go to the Liberals then would that not take the NDP out of contention? As for the Green Party if they make a brake through in the 2006 it will not be in Kitchener-Conestoga.
This is a socially conservative riding and most residents agree with Harold Albrecht's view on same-sex marriage. Myers has long been a liability to the Liberals and he will soon be collecting his pension as this riding is going blue on January 23 even if DTC is in denial.
17 01 06 DTC
Well, the Conservative candidate just shot himself in the head this week. Or shall I say his mouth did the shooting. Some old Letters to the Editor of the Record newspaper have been republished as part of the ongoing riding profiles they write. Basically, Mr. Albrecht says the same things that were said by Mr. Luellau. This election is up in the air, but I doubt Albrecht can be the one to knock off Myers. Carter is more likely, or maybe even Stapleton. The Conservatives redrew the political map of Canada, but it might not end up looking the way they hoped.
16 01 06 DTC
I would certainly agree that momentum has shifted to the Conservatives and likely favours a victory for Albrecht. But, it appears as if the CAW in Kitchener has come out in support of Myers. I just drove past Thiessen-Krupp Budd and there are huge Myers signs everywhere for a couple of blocks. The CAW office also has several large Myers signs. I'm seeing a lot more Myers signs everywhere. I think this was a practical strategic choice as I have observed several Albrecht signs, which have been up since November, lying on the ground or otherwise damaged by weather. I finally received some literature from Albrecht, but it didn't tell me anything I didn't already know. There was a very brief bio and a bunch of party stuff. Leads me to believe that Dr. Albrecht isn't much of a free thinker.
08 01 06 O.J. Simpson
I think the tide has turned in this riding. Although the Conservatives missed an opportunity to bring a super strong candidate to secure a win, we need to keep in mind that the last Conservative candidate that created a campaign manager’s nightmare with his comments related to gay marriage still brought in nearly 15,000 votes. If Myers wants to have any chance at this riding, he will actually have to get out there and convince people that he should be re-elected. A few “Lynn Myers Reports” near election time is not going to cut it. Lynn will benefit from a super weak NDP candidate, but Albrecht should win this riding with strong rural and cynical urban support. As an aside, the Green Party will pick up even more votes than last time.
05 01 06 A.S.
Maybe the most visible case where a bigmouth religious-conservative Conservative blew what ought to have been an easy Ontario pickup--though with the increasing urban leverage through redistribution, it probably wouldn't have been as easy as it looked, anyway. In fact, Lynn Myers seemed to do his best in the Elmira-Woolwich area, of all places, where the Mennonite heritage might lead one to expect Tory inclinations--in Kitchener, Grits didn't do much better than par, but that was more because of the NDP (which has always been curiously strong in this stretch of suburban SW Kitchener). Now, Albrecht's not as obviously scary as Luellau; yet this *still* doesn't seem as easy-Tory as it looks--though definitely easier than its all-urban K-W neighbour seats. But given the momentum in some polls, it's possible that CPC could not only win the riding, it could even carry the Kitchener part of the riding...
04 01 06 DTC
While I still think this race is too close to call, I would like to point out a couple of points from within the riding. Albrecht has a substantial number of signs up on public and private property, while Myers lags in this regard. Conversely, Myers has put out regular mailers this past year, with an MP report just before the fall of the government, and two mailers detailing personal information and party data since the campaign began. Although the sign profile favours the conservative, the mail favours the Liberal incumbent. I have no clue, aside from what I read here, as to who this Harold Albrecht person is. If this is the way Albrecht wishes to campaign -- depending on the party to win him his seat -- I think he is in for a nasty surprise.
21 12 05 PFR
This will clearly go to the Conservatives. In terms of signs on PRIVATE property the Conservatives have the clear lead not just in the small towns but also in Kitchener. Either the Liberals have a phobia about putting about too many signs on PRIVATE property before Christmas or Lynn Myers is in serious trouble. As for the Liberals faint hope that the comments made last year by the previous Conservative candiate will keep this riding red, well keep dreaming. Not one person has even mentioned that as being a reason that they are voting Liberal this time around. In this campaign it is a non-issue as Harold Albrecht has proven to be a very attractive candidate not just in the rural areas but also in Kitchener. For the Liberals to hold onto this riding the Conservatives will have to tank in southwestern Ontario. That simply is not going to happen.
18 12 05 Bear and Ape
With CPC polling numbers as they are in SW Ontario, we're calling this one for the Conservatives....for now. Myers isn't everyone's cup of tea, so personal appeal isn't an argument. K-Conestoga is more rural than other Kitchener area ridings; advantage CPC. Couple this with the fact that people are not as scared of Harper as they were in 2004 and we thing the CPC will take it. This can change, so we'll be watching...
17 12 05 Howitzer
No opinion yet but thanks for the laugh PFR?
Albrecht has deeper roots than Myers and this will mean he wins? Myers roots in Wilmot date back to the early 1800's when his ancestors came to Baden from Pennsylvania. According to your math, PFR, you see that 50 years of local history for Albrecht runs deeper than 150 for Myers.
With math skills like that maybe thats why you haven't figured out that the reason Myers keeps winning is because he's getting the most votes!
For Mr. Albrecht's sake, PFR, I can only hope you're not part of his braintrust.
14 12 05 quasar
This would have been a Tory win had they run a moderate candidate last time. This time, they're running a fresh, new face and if Albrecht campaigns smartly as a moderate, he'll win no problem.
13 12 05 DTC
I believe this riding belongs in the 'too close to call' category without a doubt.
Lynn Myers isn't the most popular MP around, but he is Liberal and he does have a certain degree of name recognition, which may be good or bad with Myers. His unpopularity with certain people will be what his political future turns on...if the Myers haters turn out, Lynn will likely be looking for a job come February.
The Conservative candidate, Harold Albrecht, may have to deal with a little bit of tarnish left over from Frank Luellau...Albrecht looks to be cut from the same christian conservative cloth as Luellau...but he has a little better name recognition. His voters will likely come from the partisan Conservatives and the Myers haters.
If you look at the riding population of 96,708 and you look at the total population of the three townships in this riding, which adds up to roughly 43,000, you can figure that there is a 56% to 44% urban/rural split in this riding. If the Kitchener part of this riding, accounting for around 56,000 people, goes over-whelmingly Liberal, Myers wins and there is nothing the rural voters can do. If there is a good split in Kitchener, Albrecht has a good chance, assuming that the rural voters will vote strongly Conservative.
12 12 05 Steve G
Recent polling shows Liberal support up in Ontario...BUT...this is due almost entirely to Liberal uber-domination in the city of Toronto. In Southwestern Ontario the Liberals and Tories are nearly tied, and that should be enough to put this exurban riding in the Conservative column. The Tories would have won here if it weren't for the, shall we say, intemperate remarks of the 2004 candidate. This time around, with a stronger, more moderate candidate (yes he is a Pastor, but that does not automatically make him a religious extremist), the Tories should finally pick up this seat.
07 12 05 JF
The fact of the matter is that south kitchener represents a substantial size of the voting population. The area between conestoga college and Pioneer as well as the Huron area has rapidly developed. A whole new community exists within south Kitchener since the last election in 2004. The E-day polls of 2004 showed a substantial amount of liberal support in the population dense areas of the riding including south kitchener and numerous small towns. This information, coupled by the fact that Carter hasn't started his NDP campaign, will undoubtedly have him lose some 2004 NDP votes to the Liberals. Any portion of the 6,000+ NDP votes may make the difference in 2006 for Myers.
02 12 05 PFR
The last postings by Jay B and JF were so off the mark they were actually quite humourous. Lynn Myers won this riding last time purely by default. This will not happen again as both Dr. Harold Albrecht and the entire campaign team are light years ahead in terms of campaign preparation.
In addition, the first reason that the Conservatives lost last year was due to the fact that many of the rural areas actually went Liberal. That will not happen this year due to the fact that Albrecht has devoloped a high profile in the small towns in the Wilmot, Wellsley and Woolwich townships. This first and foremost comes from the fact that for over 50 years he has lived in the riding and many rural residents will make a major factor when deciding to back Albrecht. Last campaign Lynn Myers for all his faults did have deaper roots in the community. This year Albrecht has the deaper and stronger roots and on election day this will make a big difference.
In addition, he is not an entirely new comer to the political arena. This can be seen by his time in which he served as a school board trustee which included two years as the chair of the Waterloo County Board of Education. The difference is that unlike Lynn Myers he is not a career politician.
In addition, he should cut in the Liberal support in Southwest Kitchener. This is due largely due to the fact that he ran his own business in Kitchener for 27 years. This will cause many of the pro-business Liberals who sided with Myers last time to shift over to Albrecht.
All of this will add up to Conservative win on election day.
01 12 05 Matt
I wonder how many of the people predicting liberal have ever visited this riding. I have. It smells like cow dung. There is no way this rural piece of farmland with Mennonite roots won't go Conservative [especially to a candidate with such a great Mennonite name.] So long as Albrecht doesn't say anything stupid enough to get himself on the front page of the Globe and Mail, CPC gain.
03 12 05 CH
Contrary to JF's belief, Harold Albrecht has great name recognition. As a dentist who ran his practice for 27 years, a Pastor at his church, a school board trustee and now the CPC candidate for Kitchener-Conestoga I would argue Harold's name resonates with more constituents then Myers; a 3 time Liberal MP. Myers is incredibly unpopular in the riding and his accomplishments while in office are dismal at best. He is known to be a lackluster MP even by his colleagues on the Hill. My prediction is that this seat goes Conservative with a margin of victory greater then 10%.
30 11 05 Jay B
Myers definitely isn't that popular, but the ghost of Frank Luellau Conservative values will keep Myers in as MP.
Win was narrow - and would've been a loss last time - if Myers hadn't picked up a good chunk of urban Kitchener before the 2004 election.
Kitchener gave the win to Myers last time. The same will happen this time.
30 11 05 JF
Lynn Myers, as the sitting MP, has an advantage in this winter election. Albrecht is running for the first time and does not have name recognition. Moreover, Myers has been able to deliver federal money on a few municipal projects in the small rural areas like wellesley/st. clemens while the urban area of the riding (south kitchener) has been rapidly growing in population size. Typically, south kitchener garnishes a very high liberal support - poll results confirm this fact.
This region has a very low unemployment rate - 4.6%. The liberal economic platform is important to the voters. Under a liberal government unemployment rates are at their 30-year low and over $60 billion have been paid on the national debt. As a backbencher, Myers isn't viewed as ought-to-have known about the sponsorship file. Myers should win by a couple thousand votes.
14 05 05 PFR
This riding will go Conservative. Lynn Myers is a very unpopular MP and the momentum is clearly on the side of the Conservative Party. Last year two candidates ran and about 250 people attended the nomination meeting. This year 6 candidates vied for the nomination and close to a thousand people attended the nomination. Harold Albrecht is the Conservative candidate this time and he will unseat Myers.
09 05 05 Brandon
Lost by only 3,000 votes last time makes this riding worthy of at least "too close to call" status but a Conservative win is what I'm predicting. The CPC candidate last time made controversial remarks about homosexuals, embarrassing the Tories province-wide, which no doubt impacted the local results. It probably would have come closer if he hadn't slipped on that banana peal.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This is definitely a target riding for the Conservatives. Being a mixed urban/rural riding with conservative tendacies, this is definitely an ideal riding for a conservative pick-up. Especially since Lynn Myers is not a very popular MP. However, if they run Frank Leullau again, they can expect to lose since his views on homosexuality will hurt him massively in the urban portions therefore even if he does well in the rural portions, it won't be enough to overcome the damage in the urban portions. The need somewhat moderate enough to attract at least 30% in the urban portion will win over 50% in the rural portion.

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