Update/Mise à jour:
2:55 PM 26/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:30 PM 05/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Steve Armstrong
Gord Brown
Bob Eaton
David Lee

Gord Brown

2004 Result/Résultats:
Gord Brown
Joe Jordan
Steve Armstrong
Chris Bradshaw

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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26 12 05 A.S.
In 2004, what happened in Leeds-Grenville basically amounted to finishing 2000's (barely) unfinished business; heck, Gord Brown had a more solid victory than Bob Runciman's last two provincial outings. And it'll take very specific circumstances, like the free-trade border-town anxiety which unexpectedly launched the Jordan dynasty in 1988, for the Grits to be back in the orbit here. And who knows; maybe it's happening with Green Grit Tom Manley next door...
16 10 05 Thomas
There is no question that Gord Brown will keep this seat. He slaughtered Joe Jordan who supported Same-Sex Marriage in a riding that fundamentally opposes it.
Gord has made a lot of powerful friends on the Hill this time around. It should benefit his riding when the government is elected.
16 10 05 MF
Almost definitely Tory. The PC-Alliance merger wasn't as successful as its proponents had hoped, but nowhere did it succeed more than it did in Eastern Ontario, the most conservative region of the province. Some critics of the merger said a united right would be too scary for supposedly moderate Ontario voters. But not in Eastern Ontario. While the image of the patrician socially liberal PC voter was somewhat true in the GTA, it's certainly not the case in Eastern Ontario.
22 09 05 NUMBERS
This is not a Blue riding or a Red riding, it's an Opposition riding. This riding has a tradition of tossing a government MP, electing an Opposition MP, then re-electing him religiously until his party forms a government, then tossing him at the next opportunity in an enthusiastic outpouring of anger. Look it up. If Martin wants L-G back, he just has to let Harper form a government. Going by the result of 2000, and well-established provincial data, the Liberals need a lead of 27-30% province wide in order to win here. Currently, Tory support seems to have hit rock bottom at about 20% behind. This should be good for a Brown majority of 2000 to 4000 votes. One point however, higher than traditional Conservative numbers in SouthWest Ontario may be hiding a weakening of support in the cluster of tory ridings here.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
As a liberal myself, I think Gord Brown is a horrible MP and Joe Jordan was a strong one, but I can tell you right now, the Conservatives will win this again. If Joe Jordan lost by 18 points last time around, why would he do any better since the polling numbers for the liberals and tories are roughly the same in Ontario as last election.
16 08 05 Bear and Ape
So...let's get this straight...a very conservative riding is going to vote liberal, a party that is plagued with scandal and brought in SSM which has upset many in this riding, and they will vote liberal because they have a useless MP, which they knew was useless last year, yet somehow managed to defeat a popular incumbant by 10K votes...hmmm....we think not! Wishful thinking Cassius. Maybe in Stormont-Dundas but not here.
17 05 05 Cassius
Did (Initial) miss Gord Brown's comments to the Ottawa Sun. Gord said that he had to ignore the fact that nearly every municipal council in Leeds-Grenville urged him to support the budget. Gord said that he would put the national interest ahead of his riding and it has not played well in the local media. Gord got himself more bad press after franking the riding with partisan literature that was full of atrocious spelling and grammatical errors. Other than his DOA "Knife-Registry" Bill, Gord has done nothing but photo-op politics and people are catching on. Also Gord seems to have made a strategic mistake by basing his entire campaign around 'tough on crime' and his opponent has more credibility on this issue than he did. hmmm
NDP is sitting this one out, or running a No Hoper, previous candidate Armstrong likely to back Libs. Should be good for 3000 votes. That said, this is a very conservative riding on social issues and it would probably be a walk for any Tory who wasn't so vain as to spend his entire campaign reading posts from former friends on obscure Internet sites. Hi Gord!
10 05 05 Initial
Gord Brown won the 2004 election by close to 10,000 votes after losing the 2000 election by only 55 votes when the conservative vote was split. He has been a highly active and hard working Member of Parliament for Leeds-Grenville and true to his campaign pledge he has put Leeds-Grenville First, voting the way that is important to his constituents. His work and dedication will be rewarded in the next election no matter when it is, regardless of the situation in Ottawa and any candidate the Liberals find.
08 05 05 Craig
Safe Conservative seat. Anyone who can unseat a popular Liberal incumbent by a wide margin should get re-elected, especially when they are more unpopular than ever here. Gord Brown is right in line with the residents here on fiscal and especially on social issues and should increase the majority even more. I don't see anyone else contending. Predicted results: CPC 56%, LIB 26%, NDP 12%, GRN 6%.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
As I said last year, this is one of the strongest right-wing ridings in ontario. The alliance lost this seat by a few votes in 2000, and now with the grits down in the polls, that spells disaster for the local candidate, whoever it is. The tories will win here regardless. Easy win.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
If even popular MP Joe Jordan could lose by 18 points to a lousy candidate Gord Brown, than I don't know who the liberals could run to win this riding. This is one of the most Conservative ridings in Ontario and with the exception of the 1988 election (which was a free trade referendum), this riding has always been won by right wing parties win the right is united. In fact the Canadian Alliance only lost by 55 votes in 2000, so there is no way the Conservatives could lose this riding.

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