Update/Mise à jour:
12:22 PM 17/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:46 PM 26/12/2005
Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Omar Alghabra
Ronnie Amyotte
Rupinder Brar
Bob Dechert
Adam Hunter

Carolyn Parrish

2004 Result/Résultats:
Carolyn Parrish
Bob Dechert
Simon Black
Jeff Brownridge
David Greig

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 Hatem
Let say 4000 will be turn off due to Liberal media attack and another 4000 lost due to nomination allegation from Conservatives loyal group.
There are still 4000 votes different. This is will be Liberal with very strong hold. Lost votes will not go to conservatives for sure in this riding.
16 01 06 Glen
Running a political newbie in Carolyn's stead was a definite sign that the Liberals were too cocky at the beginning of this campaign, especially with a strong candidate in Bob Dechert. I think that the only reason he got trounced by so much last time around was the lack of local attention... but he has definitely gotten more of that this time around.
16 01 06 Scott
I agree the Conservative signs are everywhere and after watching the all candidates meeting on TV, it was clear that the Liberal is in way over his head, with well spoke NDP and Green candidates plus a wild card independent, I'd say that the Liberals are in danger of loosing this one.
15 01 06 Bear and Ape
It's probably presumptuous to name this for the Liberals, but by no means can the CPC claim this riding either. The rumors of the nomination meeting will turn many off, the crashing Liberal campaign nationally, the lack of an incumbent and the recent news that the Conservatives are finally gaining in Toronto makes this too close to call.
02 01 06 Joan (Liberal, not Martinite)
I'm baffled. Conservative signs outnumber Liberal signs in this riding by at least 4 to 1. The Conservatives are even with the Liberals in Ontario (according to the most recent poll). Conservative candidate is running a second time with much more support from the National office. Liberal rookie candidate has been more or less smeared by the local press. And this riding is now listed as Liberal. Too much eggnog at Christmas it seems. If you want to know how scared the Liberals have become, a campaign worker for Veteran Affairs Minister Albina Guarnieri (Liberal candidate next door in Mississauga East-Cooksville, only Minister from Mississauga and Brampton (Peel/West 905) was knocking on my door on December 30.
29 12 05 love, sydney
The rumoured acceptance speech may have little grain of truth -- I heard they were actually chanting the candidate's name -- but it has legs. There will be many soft-L liberals moving over to NDP and even Dechert's tent, while hardliners who are troubled by this and the growing lexicon of Grit problems, may just stay home. It looks like a large gap to make up, but when trends start to roll, 7,000 votes out of one camp and 7,000 votes in another can change the electorale map.
26 12 05 M. Lunn
There is no doubt the story about Omar Alghebra saying Islam has won, a victory for Islam, we are taking over Canadian politics" will hurt the Liberals even if this is just a rumour as it probably is. That being said the Liberals won by 20 points last time around and people in the 905 tend to vote along party lines rather than individuals. The Tories may have improved a bit in the 905 belt, but certainly not enough to take this riding. The Liberals will stay easily carry this riding as 90% of people here vote for the party, not the candidate, so close to 50% will vote Liberal no matter how they run.
26 12 05 B.O.
The article that Joan posted is a little out of date. The claim of the Canadian Coalition For Democracies has been debunked and lawsuit may be launched against the Coalition for their false claim. Now there is little reason to believe that statements attributed to Mr. Alghabra that he did not actually make would cause thousands and thousands of voters to vote Conservative instead of Liberal, which is what would be required for a Conservative win. It is also worth noting that:
1) In the article that Joan linked, even Carolyn Parrish said that she didn't hear any religious or incendiary comments during Mr. Alghabra's speech at the nomination meeting, and she was there.
2) This issue will not likely be a big one by election day because by then it should be clear to most people that what the Coalition said was not true.
3)Assuming what I said in number 2) is true, it is likely that the issue of Mr. Alghabra's speech will be even less of a factor in Mississauga-Streetsville.
In conclusion, Mississauga-Erindale is still too close to call, but the Liberals are not out of the race.
25 12 05 A.S.
Ah, how all of this melodrama might have been avoided had Steve Mahoney been nominated over Carolyn Parrish in 2004. So, now, I guess, the spotlight ought to shine on Bob Dechert, whether as a harbinger of big Harper gains in the 905 or at least as a potential rerun of Jim Jones in Markham in 1997. Stigmatized for being too CCRAPpy in the past, he and his party might well be backhandedly eyeing a gift horse in the mouth--that is, if a pro-Grit sympathy vote doesn't arise. (And on the Grits' behalf relative to the Jim Jones situation, bear in mind that neither Carolyn Parrish nor Omar Alghabra are exactly "Jag Bhaduria" cases.) And if things do work to CPC's favour, think of the symbolism: this is a "mid-level" seat as far as Mississauga goes, not part of the erstwhile Lakeshore "blue belt". It's where Mike Harris polled closer to 50% than 60%. If CPC can crack this one, imagine what else they can crack...
23 12 05 sk
I think with all the bad press surrounding Alghabra may well get to the best of him, and because of that it is harder to call this one for the Liberals, on the other hand from what I have seen in this riding none of the other candidates have really made a breakthrough so far in this campaign so I would have to say this was too close to call.
21 12 05 Steve G
Well, what do we have here! Is it really possible that the Liberals have chosen a candidate so awful that they may actually lose a seat here in their GTA fortress? Big possibility! Look for the Tories to immediately direct resources into this riding. Just as people are weary about a few Christian fundamentalist candidates running for the Conservatives, so too will they be concerned about a Liberal candidate who proclaims his nomination victory as a "victory for Islam". The big question is: if the Liberal vote collapses here and the Tories pick up this seat, will there be a spillover effect in neighbouring ridings favouring the Tories?
20 12 05 Joan (Liberal, not Martinite)
This story covered 1/3 of the front page of the Mississauga News. Read
This liberal seat is history. Could also result in another (Khan) going down to defeat.
20 12 05 Ted
I would like to echo Saleem's comments. The chanting and seeming agenda pushing by the liberal candidate here was disconcerning to many. Will this be enough to switch disenchanted liberal support elsewhere? Will Parrish's public support for the tories be enough to sway others? I haven't seen enough to show a Conservative victory here yet but it's definetely shaping up to be an interesting race.
19 12 05 mark
This seat is almost a sure CPC pickup. The Grits managed to let the nomination go to a one-issue candidate (the treatment of Muslim men since 9/11) whose position on some important issues (security) is sketchy at best. This will become very obvious as the long campaign unfolds. Voters in Mississauga-Erindale liked CP because she was a strong constituency politician. This advantage is totally lost now with this new candidate. The Grits will be happy just to try to keep this riding out of the news.
15 12 05 Saleem Sherwani
At the Liberal nomination meeting, Carolyn Parrish was supporting Charles Sousa against the Omar Alghabra. After Omar Alghabra won the nomination, his supporters started chanting "Allah O Akbar," and "Islaam...Islaam". The fact that this slogan mongering was being done inside a Coptic Church, left many non-Muslims aghast and shocked. Now Carolyn Parrish has implicitly endorsed the Conservative candidate against the Liberal Omar Alghabra in yetsreday's Toronto Star. Wait for the is seat to swing Conservative. I can bet the Tories will use Parrish's statement to their advantage. The raising of Islamic slogans inside a Church was dumb. Imagine if Christians started raising Christian slogans inside a Mosque? All hell will let loose.
02 12 05 nbpolitico
With Parrish not running as in independent, this should be just as safe as the other Mississauga seats for the Liberals.
30 11 05 Bryan
Just a brief discussion...there was good reason to be in the Too Close Pile last time around. Even a cursory look at the advanced poll results from 2004 show a Liberal, CPC deadheat. The difference in 2004 was that the S.Ontario blinked and voted Liberals because the Conservatives failed to take advantage of the early upsurge in their vote and could not shake the negative ads that the Liberals put out. Mississaugans voted Liberals, not because they are liberal necessarily, but because they couldn't bring themselves to vote Conservative. That problem will largely disappear this time and the race will be much tighter. Too close to call at this point.
28 11 05
Last year it was the same thing; everyone expected this riding to be too close, it was listed as such almost right up to election day. But then the liberals won by a landslide. I'm not too sure why the perceptions of what might happen are so skewed from what will happen in this riding. Many people voted liberal last time despite Parrish, another big win for the liberals.
16 11 05 Full Name
I have also heard the rumor of Michael Ignatiff being a Liberal candidate, possibly in this riding. There's not a lot of issue, in my view, with parachuted candidates (my own MP was a parachute candidate, and he's doing a great job right now). But Ignatiff does have some mountains to climb if he wants to run here in Erindale. I think he already has a base here: UTM. It's in the riding, and since he's going to start teaching at U of T, Mississauga-Erindale would be familiar territory with its university population. But in the end, it is up to the Liberals in Erindale to nominate their candidate choice. Still, Ignatiff would be a good fit here considering the other possibly ridings are held by long-time incumbents who are running again (ie: Bill Graham)
04 11 05 EP
I would not so quickly declare this as a Liberal sure-win. The Liberal association in Erindale is controlled by leaders of the Muslim community, who are quite keen to nominate one of their favourite sons to be the Liberal candidate. The Liberal establishment however, is dropping hints that they intend to parachute some middle age white male into this fairly safe seat. Names that have been circulated include Michael Ignatieff (star candidate and icon of the white Rosedale elite), Steve Mahoney (former Chretien minister who lost nomination to Parrish) and Charles Sousa (lost nomination to Paul Szabo in Mississauga South last year despite being backed by the PMO). Such appointment will no doubt infuriate the local riding association. This is one of the handful of ridings that Punjabi and Urdu actually registered on the census radar screen, and the situation may be tighter than people think if the Muslim community turn their back on the Liberals (or vice versa).
28 10 05 Craig
No Carolyn Parrish on the ballot means this riding will go back to its normal ways: landslide Liberal. The Conservatives were never really in a position to capitalize on a vote split anyway, it would have been Parrish vs. the Liberals. While her extreme anti-American sentiment may have claimed some NDP votes, they are traditionally very weak here as well so the gains may be minimal. Predicted results: LIB 62%, CPC 23%, NDP 11%, GRN 4%, others 1%.
21 10 05 M. Lunn
With Carolyn Parrish not running, this will definitely go liberal in a landslide. Even had Parrish run, I doubt that she would have split the vote enough to allow a Conservative win and even though her anti-American views may have a strong following, I think most of those who oppose American foreign policy understand that electing a conservative would lead to Canada aligning its policies more with the United States so many of them would vote liberal to prevent the Conservatives from coming up the middle. I think her anti-American views really didn't help or hurt her as most Canadians strongly oppose the current administration's policies, however most Canadians still like the American people or the very least don't think they are "bastards" or "idiots".
15 10 05 Aric H
Well today's announcement by Carolyn Parrish that she is not running in the next election solves the question on Election Prediction as to whether she would run as an Independent and split the Liberal vote and elect a Conservative (which was not that likely anyway). There will be no vote-splitting and so the seat will remain Liberal.
13 10 05 905er
This might have been very interesting - now that Parrish is not running it isn't. Liberal win.
13 10 05 Bear and Ape
Carolyn Parrish is not going to be running again. There is nothing here that will distinguish this riding from any other riding in the suburban wasteland that is much of the GTA. Meaning, easy Liberal win.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
The liberals will win this whether Carolyn Parrish runs as an Independent, doesn't run at all, or is re-admitted to the liberal caucus. Even though many people share her anti-American views, foreign policy is not a top priority for most Canadians so it is unlikely she will garner too many votes and with the Conservatives tanking in Ontario, especially the GTA, even a perfect split down the middle wouldn't be enough for the Conservatives to take this.
01 06 05 TAN
Considering the amount of scuttlebutt circulating about whether Parrish is running or not, and under whose colours, its probably a bit premature to speculate on this one at all. Unless Martin can somehow swing a deal in which he finds someone to wheel Hazel McCallion around wearing a red button, he's not going to find a stronger Liberal ticket to victory than Parrish. And if she runs as an Independent, she'll probably top whoever the Liberals offer, but fall behind Dechert on a vote-split.
My sense is that the outcome of the Mississauga-Erindale story is really going to hinge on a national one: do the Liberal powers-that-be figure that having Parrish back in the tent will cost them seats elsewhere in the country in spite of the victory in Mississauga? The answer to that question will probably shape whatever offers are being made at the current time.
The smartest options for the Liberals are to either a) get her into caucus ASAP and ride out the predicted outrage from points rightward and southward so by the time the election comes it's a non-issue, or b) take the fairly unorthodox step of declining to run a candidate in the riding (mask it as a deal for budget-propping by Parrish if need-be) and let her fight it out as an independent.
25 05 05 Hootie
Parrish will win as a Liberal again. She'll be back into Caucus by the time the election is called and don't underestimate her personal popularity.
Dechert is solid - but Parrish is unbeatable.
17 05 05 Mike B
I have always found the charge of "anti-americanism" odd. Parrish speaks to legitimate concerns that many constituents in her (and every) riding have with US foreign policy where Canada and the rest of the world are concerned. Parrish speaks to these concerns, although not always in the most helpful way.
That having been said, I don't think her appeal is nearly strong enough to win over much of the riding. Her remarks may have earned her a spot on This Hour, but it is hard to think that the same tactics will give her wide political appeal when she isn't running under the popular Liberal banner. Hand this one to the Liberals, with Parrish coming in third.
17 05 05 Nick Boragina
With the Liberals down in the polls, Mrs.Parrish stands a better chance of winning then otherwise. While she did make extreme comments, people still view her as just a liberal outside of the party, and that's exactly what Harper and Layton are trying to become to get elected. Liberals, in terms of policies, are popular, Liberals in terms of the party, are not. This should be close, but still a victory.
17 05 05 Rebel
I think the riding will be too close to call if Parrish runs. I see her getting not much better than 6,000 votes as an independent and probably less. I agree that the votes she got as a Liberal would have gone to any Liberal.
That being the case, the riding could be close if Dechart or other strong Conservative candidate runs. Right now...too many imponderables to make a better prediction.
16 05 05 Mike M.
My opinion, Carolyn Parrish runs as an independant and the liberals get themselves a candidate. There are residents in the riding that will arbitrarily vote Liberal, and some who would vote specifically for Carolyn Parrish, in theory splitting that previous vote. Which i think will give Bob Dechert just enough to get by and win this seat.
14 05 05 Red Tory
Sorry, but main stream voters in Mississauga (where many voters work at nearby American companies) did not vote for Parish because of her extreme views - they voted Liberal. Bob Dechert is one of the Conservative's strongest candidates in the GTA. If Parish runs as an independent, the vote splitting between her and the Liberal candidate should all but ensure Dechert wins. This riding should be at least be too close to call.
13 05 05 Not Non-Partisan
What can people be dreaming when they think that Parrish can win? The Liberal constitution obliges them to run a candidate in every riding and the resulting split in the vote will guarantee Dechert's victory. Anyone who thinks that Parrish is "much-beloved" is dreaming in technicolor. The woman is a battle-axe and her anti-American views are an insult to reasonable people.
12 05 05 Aedan J. Shaughnessy
Carolyn Parrish has a high profile due to her seemingly incessant media exposure as an outspoken maverick MP. It is difficult, however, to adequately predict this riding due to the fact that Parrish has not yet selected an affiliation in the event of an election.
I think it would be interesting if the NDP were to court Parrish as a candidate, because although the NDP is not typically well-favoured in higher-income areas, Parrish's criticisms of the Bush administration are much more in line with the NDP's than with the Liberals, and as such would endear her to the NDP caucus. (Despite, of course, an obvious lack of diplomacy.)
I would call this one a tight three-way race, were Parrish to run for the NDP, otherwise, a tight two-way race between the Liberals and Parrish as an Independant. Bottom line, with Parrish running, this is not a Tory seat.
11 05 05 MJL
Carolyn Parrish may be marginally popular in her riding, but not sufficiently so for the Liberals to lose - either to her or the Conservatives. A COMPAS poll put out on may 6th had her at 20% at the highest (Liberals were at 39%, Conservatives at 29%, NDP at 10% - this assumed that she supported the Liberal budget).
That poll was done before the actual candidates were known too.
For Parrish to become a force to reckon with, she would have to draw off voters from the Liberals, making this a three-way race, however, she lacks the resources and publicity to make a splash this time around. Since she is not in government saying "America sucks" and bashing Martin's leadership won't get her headlines any more.
10 05 05 Beezer
There is such an incredible personal loyalty to Parrish in this district. Despite the media coverage she gets on the national stage, everywhere she goes she receives a standing ovation. People like what she says, though maybe not how she says it. The Grits haven't announced their candidate yet, but who could they possibly parachute in that could sap loyalty from Parrish?
The Tories have decided that a brown face on the campaign might not be too appealing to Tories, and have denied the Sikh gentleman who won the nomination his papers, instead running the wealthy, former Reform, uber-Tory Bob Dechert again, a guy Parrish beat last time. She has this riding locked up, and will win with a healthy margin.
09 05 05 Canadian Redhead
Allow me to be the one to make an unpopular but true observation:
Ms. Parish will attract some voters BECAUSE of her views. Publicly her statements have been unpopular and some feel wrong. But let's face it, there is a palpable anti-American sentiment alive and well in Canada. If she runs again, I don’t feel that her views will significantly harm her chances for re-election.
The more interesting question is: will she run as an independent, for another party, or will the Liberals take her back because they need as many seats as they can get? I have assumed she will run as an independent, but who knows.
08 05 05 BrianJA
Parrish is beloved in her riding and will win as an Independant, a Liberal, or even as a Communist. The people in this riding can't seem to get enough of her antics and, with the Liberals back on the rise in Ontario, I just don't see Parrish losing her seat here, even though she'd not a Liberal anymore.
04 05 05 Full Name
I would have to say Carolyn has a best shot at winning as an Independent at the next election. Out of all three independents in the House now, she has the most high profile. This kinda reminds me of John Nunziata's reelection in 1997, despite a high profile candidate and Toronto councillor by the name of Judy Sgro running against him (results were like IND 45%, LIB 32% in YSW 1997). This time around in Miss-Erindale, it could be a similar situation and Carolyn could return to Ottawa and continue making outrageous statements.
03 05 05 punditman
I'll tell ya who won't win: the Liberals. Parrish is a popular MP and will divert a significant portion of the liberal vote. However, just how much of that vote she gets will determine the result of this riding. If she doesn't get mcuh of that vote, there will be a Parrish-Liberal split and the Conservatives will win. But, if she gets enough of the liberal vote, she'll return to the house as an independent.
03 05 05
Carolyn Parrish sure has a profile. Nonetheless I doubt she'd win re-election as an independent. The Conservatives were way to far behind here. The results should be closer than last time, with Parrish running and the Liberals down, but they could run that proverbial sign post and win. Okay not necessarily that, but a 10,000 vote victory without titanic shifts in voter intention usually equal the incumbent party holding on.
02 05 05 Craig
Incredibly, I see Parrish holding on to this seat as an independent in a shocking upset. She is definitely popular among constituents (how else could she get 60% with her extreme anti-American stance) and she has removed the Adscam factor by quitting the Liberals. She will most likely beat the real Liberal candidate, who will have the government issues to bear. A big-name but moderate Conservative is all that can beat her. Predicted results: IND-Parrish 35%, CPC 29%, LIB 21%, NDP 11%, GRN 3%.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
It really depends on how much of the liberal vote is split between Carolyn Parrish and the liberal candidate. If over 2/3 goes to one side, then the Conservatives won't win this riding, but if it is split right down the middle, they will likely pick it up this time around.
02 05 05 Brandon
Carolyn Parrish, despite her anti-American outbursts, (sadly) won Mississauga-Erindale by a large 12,000 votes. Mississauga is bellwether to the core, except Mississauga South, which has some solid Conservative strength. The Tories would have to be leading in the 905 Region to win here, and they aren't right now. Whoever the Liberal candidate is will win, maybe by an increased margin.
26 04 05 Neal
There's a good reason why Carolyn Parrish won't vote to bring down the liberals.... she likes the paycheque, and knows all too well the odds against independent canadidates, even when they are not disgraced.
nevertheless, she does have a loyal bunch of anti-american fanatics who will vote for her, perhaps siphoning enough votes that would otherwise have gone Liberal to allow a weak Tory to come up the middle.
If the Tories nominate a strong candidate, Ms.Parrish becomes insignificant.

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