Update/Mise à jour:
12:12 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:37 PM 05/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Lori Gadzala
Michael Gaffney
Laurel Gibbons
Pierre Poilievre

Pierre Poilievre

2004 Result/Résultats:
Pierre Poilievre
David Pratt
Phil Brown
Chris Walker
Brad Powers

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

20 01 06 LM
Poilievre will take this and increase his plurality, further entrenching Nepean-Carleton into the 'safe seat" column for federal and provincial Tories. Although the Liberal campaign has stepped up personal attacks in the last week to regain much lost ground, the Ottawa Citizen's recent endorsement of Poilievre and his work ethic is seen in the riding as yet another big blow to the now puttering "little" red machine. Gaffney should watch out for Gadzala and Gibbons, who each may shave votes off him in the current political climate.
20 01 06 CHP
While I don't have a crystal ball on who will take this riding, I point to the following:
- Other than Mr. Poilievre, I met none of the other candidates. Admittedly, the Liberal candidate did drop by while I was at work.
- The signs around my area are nearly 3 to 1 in favor of the Conservatives. Same goes for flyers...
- Mr. Poilievre has done an amazing job keeping his constituents informed on the work he is doing on our behalf in Parliament.
- This time around the momentum is in the favor of the Conservatives.
13 01 06
Kevin F, your logic is flawed. The NDP and Green party voters will not vote Liberal, especially after their national campaign lost its wheels. The general feeling is more against the Liberals than the Tories. While some NDP and Green voters may vote Liberal to block a Tory win, many will stick to their parties respectively. Also, it needs to mentioned that Liberal votes will be drawn to the NDP, Green, and Tory. Besides Poilivre has been an excellent MP, and at the age of 25 (or 26) he defeated a Liberal cabinet minister, which says a lot about him and his riding.
31 12 05 Kevin F
This year the Liberals will take this riding. Firstly, Beryl Gaffney took the riding some time ago, and therefore that will be a pretty big boost to help Mr. Gaffney. Not only that, but as the previous poster pointed out, Pierre's comments on women working in the workforce is going to take some votes away. Pierre's main thing is the Queensway Hospital, well Michael has been out knocking on doors prior to August, and once they find out he's sat on the board for a number of years, and as much as he did for them fiscally, that'll influence a lot of people as the hospital is one of the only things Pierre knows how to talk about.
Plus, Michael supports same-sex marriage, which means votes will be taken away from the NDP and the Green knowing how close Pierre won last time, people know he can be defeated by voting Liberal.
03 01 06 Viking
I predict that Poilievre will be re-elected by double the margin (or better) he won last time, approx 3800 votes.
We learned that his 2004 campaign team was well-funded, large, highly motivated and competent; there is no reason to believe it is any less capable this time out, if their signage is any indication.
It's been said that Poilievre has covered the riding time and again since the last election. That level of direct contact with the voters has to count for something.
As for the Liberals they might have had a better chance if quicker off the mark with a better known candidate.
The others: I think the Green Party will enjoy growth in this riding. The NDP would have had a better chance had Phil Brown run again. Their new candidate appears to be a lightweight who knows little about the issues and even less about her party's policies.
30 12 05 Bear and Ape
People predicting a Liberal win seem to focus on Poilievre's shortcomings (whether real or merely perceived). They fail to mention that he defeated an incumbent cabinet minister and a close buddy to Martin. Now the CPC is up in the Eastern Ontario polls, Pratt ain't around and Poilievre is the incumbent. It'll take a fantastic Liberal candidate to beat Poilievre under these conditions...or Poilievre to screw-up royally....yet to happen. As for demographic changes hurting the CPC, the last election was not all that long ago. The changes are mostly negligible; thousands have not moved to this riding in the last few months, lest there was a refugee movement that the news missed reporting.
29 12 05 BN
I'm amazed at how few Liberal lawn signs I see in this riding. To date I have seen only 10-20, but hundreds for the incumbent - Pierre Poilievre. Before the 2004 election this riding sent a liberal MP to the Hill only becasue the PC and Alliance parties split the right vote. Sorry Mr. Pratt but your success was only a result of the times. In the 2000 election if the Alliance and PC would have combined they would have had a 5,000 vote majority in the riding. It is true that the riding's urban areas are growing at an exceptional rate. However that urban growth has slowed down since 2004. It is oft asumed that an urban vote will normally lean to the Liberals. Approximately 39% of the growth in Ottawa was from immigration. Many of these new Canadians are appalled by what they see in the Liberal party. Neighbours of mine recently arrived from eastern Europe have very strong Conservative leanings. Many south asian and asian friends are also supporting the Conservatives. The myth of new Canadians supporting the Liberals is just that - a myth.
28 12 05 Initial
Frankly I think it is too close to call. Pierre Poilievre won for two reasons. Demographics and the scandal. No one is really talking about the scandal in this election in the riding. The demographics of the riding have changed significantly by several thousand urban voters moving to the suburbs and the rural vote has shrunk. The new voters I suspect will tend to vote Liberal more than Conservative.

Pierre tried for a year to "create" the Queensway Carleton issue however facts are coming out about it. The two biggies are: (1)rent lease is to be re-newed in 8 years - far from a pressing issue today; and (2) fair market value legislation was not created by the Liberals, it was created by the Conservatives under Mulroney. How ironic. The Conservative party created this supposed "crisis".
With a lot of Public Servants in the riding (more everyday), and the Conservatives campaigning on a Less Government platform, I believe they will feel threatened for their jobs (as they should). The Conservatives have not hidden their intentions to gut Ottawa and send the cash to the Provinces. I think if Pierre is found to be an Alberta separatist, that will play into this fear.
Lastly, Pierre still comes off an inexperienced used-car salesman. And he has made gaffs. The "90% of women do not want to work" comment he made debating Gaffney on CFRA was idiotic. His grandstanding about getting rid of the gun registry is preaching to the converted. And the Ottawa Citizen really summed up all his faults and their editorial board will not be supporting him.
However in the sign war the Conservatives have an expert team and deploy with an expertise I have never seen before.
25 12 05 A.S.
Had the Tories run John Baird rather than this Poilievre greenhorn and the Liberals not invested so much in saving David Pratt's hawkish hide, we might have seen a Leeds-Grenville-scale margin here. As it stands, if it were all about "Nepean", Pratt would have won handily; it's the "Carleton" which decisively tipped things t/w the Tories. And the Tory advantage now is: incumbency. And no Pratt. And Junior Gaffney not only being no Pratt, but being an outright prat (at least according to some posters). Still, for all of Gaffney's gaffes, don't bet on his pratfalling his way to third place--but only because we're talking about the kind of territory where cracking the 10% ceiling is the kind of thing to make an NDPer toss the confetti...
24 12 05 Bill Thomas
I will continue with a Conservative win here, but add that I believe the Liberal candidate is running such a terrible campaign, he may come in third. I know that sounds unlikely, but as noted earlier he was blogging about how terrible the response was in the riding to Liberal policies. Now, I guess after reading about how stupid that was he has changed his blogs to say that actually everyone loves Liberal policies. He removed his complaints about "beer and popcorn." He said he was so unhappy and got so many angry phone calls that he sent an angry letter to the PMO. He just eliminated that from his website.
He also said that he liked the Conservative Party proposal for a Sports tax Credit... but has now removed that line and replaced it with something more innocuous.
The oddest thing about this campaign is that Liberal Gaffney has quoted an NDP speech in the HOC attacking Pierre and put up a link to the Mike Parks website (the NDP riding association member who first posted the defamatory allegations about the Alberta Separatist party). This guy viciously attacks Pierre for his stance on the Hospital--but the NDP support Pierre on this issue and voted on mass for Pierre's motion.
I find the whole thing so odd. Is the liberal candidate so desperate he can't find any original Liberal content for which to attack Pierre?
Maybe thats why he fails to mention his party at the doors. Every time Gaffney blogs, he looks more and more like a fool.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
If an outsider at age 25 could take down a cabinet minister and popular local politician, then I really don't think there is anything the Liberals could do to regain this. Based on the Tory numbers now, Pierre Poilievere will at the very least hold his current numbers making it next to impossible to knock him off.
19 12 05 M B
I can probably categorize the complaints against Pierre into 3 buckets:
1. He's young
2. He grew up in Alberta
3. He's uncharismatic
Yet no one criticizes him for his reminder that "all politics is local". Rated by the Hill Times as the MP who takes the most care of his constituents.
18 12 05 D.A. Cooke
Michael Gaffney has been an active and contributing member of this area for longer than Pierre has been alive. EW's assertion that Gaffney, a man with an MBA(that's a masters degree in business for all you Poilievre kids) and a background in marketing, would be going door to door justifying his candidacy through his mother's accomplishments, is nothing short of desperate.
15 12 05 EW
Interesting race here in Nepean-Carleton. The Liberal candidate is actually blogging about how much crap he's receiving over Liberal Party policy. He's giving people a running tally of the votes he's losing and argues with voters by email, then posts the exchanges. Can anyone say "unhinged?"
One friend told me that when Gaffney came to her door, the only reason he could give her for choosing him was because his mommy was Beryl Gaffney. She told him that wasn't good enough and he starting yelling at her about how stupid conservatives were. Odd behavior.
I predict the Canadian Tire Tory will win by +7000 votes. I have seen him four times this week. I can't believe how much that guy hustles.
14 12 05 Peter Zorzella
If signs on public property counted for anything, it would be over.
*On public property*: In and around Manotick, there are a reasonable number of Liberal and Green signs out, and some NDP, though the Con has more than all others combined. The signs for other (non-C) parties are still increasing.
*On Private Property (e.g., lawns)*: There is no clear winner in my area from what I have seen.
12 12 05 Peter Zorzella
Just looked at the numbers again... Oustung him would only take about a third (not "most" as I wrote) of the NDP/Green supporters from last time to switch. Alternately, about 12% of the people who supported Pierre last time changing would do it.
12 12 05 Sam Losco
I actually saw some Liberal signs the other day in the village of Osgoode. Two of them for Gaffney.
09 12 05 Peter Zorzella
Afraid I have to go with the majority so far on this.
I live in this riding, and Pierre is about as annoying as the Candian Tire guy in the ads. He did "polls" (on his own website, self-selected participation) on issues and published the results in the local paper as justification for voting the way he was going to anyway (party line, e.g., on same sex marriage). He is present at every possible event and photo op, and the local papers seem to like him for it. He and John Baird have been tag-teaming the fund-raisers for the local legion hall that burned down, every picnic and parade,... He has been championing causes that sound good and get popular support (like getting the government to make the rent for the land for the local hospital $1), but which have no chance of getting passed, thereby entrenching his position that the Liberals do not love us but that the conservatives do. There is a good sized angry, "throw the bums out" crowd in this area.
I agree that the last time Pratt lost the seat, rather than this guy winning it. But this is a largely rural area and has a lot of conservative support. While Pierre did not win a majority of the popular vote, if he retains his support, almost all the people who voted NDP/Green last time whould have to vote strategically to oust him.
05 12 05 Humble Prophet
On December 4th, the Liberal still does not have a single sign in the riding that I have seen, I repeat, not a single sign!!!! I was driving all over the riding this weekend. Pierre Poliviere has signs everywhere and even the NDP and Greens have a respectable presence. I can only assume that the liberals have decided they have no chance of winning, and have sent all the troops to Ottawa South and Ottawa Centre, where they are in dogfights with a decent chance of winning. I'm changing my prediction. Pierre will not win by 5,000, he will win by closer to 10,000. This one is over before it even started. Its a KO in the first round for the man with the most irritating voice in the world, Pierre Poliviere.
29 11 05
It’s pretty clear that the last time around David lost his seat rather than Pierre winning it. I think as the Tories go so will Pierre. The guy has no ties to the area, he is cold, and read his cv, a hack. If it comes down to people voting for the candidate, the other will need to be awful for Pierre to win.
28 11 05 humble prophet
I live in this riding and I find Pierre immature and twerpish in that Young Tory type of way. Yet, I believe he will win this riding handily. He has been very visible, the riding leans very conservative, and there is enough disgust with the Liberals that Pierre will win by greater than 5000 votes.
18 11 05 RWR
If Pierre loses this riding it will be the biggest upset of any riding across Canada. While the Gaffney name has roots in the riding, Michael is no Beryl. Beryl held local office prior to election to the federal house. This gave her a community record to stand on. Michael has neither. Add to this that Pierre is one of the most visible MPs in his constituency of any MP in Canada. If anyone wants to talk to him or meet with them he's there. If a group wants his attendence, he's there. Pierre's issues are Nepean-Carleton's issues and visa versa. John Baird taught him well. Predicton: Con 54%, Lib 34%, NDP 8%, Green 4%.
06 11 05 Rebel
This riding is attracting some pretty assertive comments. The NDP candidate is pushing hard for assistance for autism treatment, but it is a bit mean to describe her as a single issue candidate. Both the incumbant MP Pierre Poilievre and fellow Tory Scott Reid also have spoken out for autistics so that is not an issue to merit criticism. Similarly, I find the allegation of Poilievre being a separatist to be novel, nasty and unlikely.
All that being said, the riding tilts Tory but a strong liberal sweep could take it back. Pierre Poilievre has been a very active MP...probably the most energetic in the area but the riding does not always reward that over a general trend. Right now, I would predict Poilievre would win by 7,000 votes or so IF the election is called in November immediately post-Gomery. A March 2006 election is lifetimes away in politics and too much is uncertain to safely predict the result in this suburban, bellwether riding five months from now.
02 11 05 Craig
Liberal pickup, huh? That's about as likely as the Liberals gaining new seats in Alberta. All signs point to an even greater win for Pierre Poilievre, one of the young stars in the Conservative caucus. If a 25 year old then-unknown conservative could easily beat a right-leaning and popular senior Cabinet minister (who was a strong supporter of the Iraq war and leans right on social issues), what makes you think that the Liberals could defeat the incumbent with AdScam front and centre and gay marriage being unpopular here? Not to mention the Queensway-Carleton rent issue locally. All this adds up to a romp. Predicted results: CPC 54%, LIB 26%, NDP 14%, GRN 4%, others 2%.
02 11 05 Kyle
If this week's Ottawa Citizen column wasn't a stinging indictment of how pathetic the guy (Polievre) is - and it was written by Randall Denley who is not exactly pro-Liberal - I don't know what is.
25 10 05 M. Lunn
After looking at the results from last time, I am moving this to too close to call even though I agree with the below posters that Pierre Poilievre will likely hold the riding provided there isn't a meltdown in Tory support. The reason for this is Pierre Poilievre only won by 1500 votes in the voting day polls, while by 2,000 votes in the advanced polls which suggests some who voted Conservative in the advanced polls may have gone liberal if they voted on election day since Conservatives did quite a bit better in the advanced polls in most parts of the country especially in Ontario. I still think Pierre Poilievre will holds his riding, but I am not entirely sure.
13 10 05 Bill Thomas
The Liberal allegations are not only laughable they are literally impossible. To be a member you must be resident of Alberta, which Mr. Poilievre is not and the political party in question didn't even exist years ago when Mr. Poilievre resided in Alberta. Amateurs figured that out within minutes. Despite this slander, I predict Mr. Poilievre will definately win his seat again because of his support for ending rental charges to the Queensway-Carleton Hospital. The liberal candidate actually came out and said he wants the QCH to keep paying rent. The next week the local papers were FILLED with letters from people slamming him for his position. There are six hospitals in the country that sit on federal land and this is the only hospital that pays rent to the feds and they are threatened with a multi-million dollar rent increase.
Another reason I believe Pierre will win is his personal popularity in the riding.
The outspoken city councillor for Barrhaven endorsed the liberal last time but has since regretted that decision. Conservative volunteers and workers have abandoned her and her popularity plumeted. The constituents in Nepean-Carleton is extremely loyal to Mr. Poilievre. So much so that there are reports that many conservative volunteers en masse are independently starting to actively put together a plan to defeat Jan Harder's daughter in the next municipal election because they consider Jan and her daugher liberals and want to punish Jan Harder for badmouthing Pierre openly at city hall. With such a loyal base, and Pierre's popular stand on issues I find it difficult to see how he can lose.
06 10 05 LM
Poilievre will keep this seat. I find the Liberal allegations of Alberta seperatism laughable, considering it was Poilievre who sent Canadian flags to veterans in Quebec when their separatist MP refused to do so, and it is Poilievre who is firmly behind the Manotick Legion rebuilding project. Anytime I see someone honour our war vets I consider it to be an act of patriotism. If this is the big silver bullet for the Liberals, they might even manage running third.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
For all those suggesting the liberals will re-take this, lets consider a few facts. The fact Pierre Poilievre was only 25 and had only lived in the riding for a year probably hurt him, while the fact the liberal member David Pratt was the defence minister and former municipal councillor probably helped him. If Pierre Poilievre could still win under those circumstances, than I don't know how the liberals could re-take this. Sure they might pick up a few Green and NDP votes who didn't like the fact David Pratt supported the war in Iraq and was a strong backer of Missile Defence Shield, but since the Greens and NDP didn't get many votes anyways, it probably won't make much difference. This is a very conservative riding; It was the second best showing for the Provincial PCs in the last provincial election after Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey, which was Ernie Eves' riding and the Canadian Alliance came within 2,000 votes in 2000 despite have a wacko from the religious right as their candidate.
10 07 05 TAN
Notwithstanding the earlier posts further down the page, the current picture seems to be that we're looking at a Deborah Coyne v. Polievre match up during an election called on Martin's terms. That says Liberal pickup to me.
Firstly, publicity can only hurt Poilevre--let's face it, he's a nerdy twat whose biggest exposure lately has been his latching-on to that obscure Senator-building-lease-legal-now-but-maybe-illegal-then story and treating it like he was breaking Watergate. For his fearless efforts day in and day out in the Commons (for what must have been every QP in the final month of the sitting), he earned an anthologized verbal pummelling from Scott Brison and multiple haughty scoldings from the Speaker for going slanderously over-the-top. Will this particular incident in and of itself matter a hell of a lot to Joe Nepeanite? Probably not. But he's demonstrated a singularly Stockwellian capacity to unapologetically dig himself into his own radically partisan holes. PP mightn't lose an election on account of any one incident that gets the hardcore politicos chattering, but rather suffer death by a series of cuts from random episodes of hard-right blustering that land on Nepean doorsteps every couple of mornings already, and will likely increase during the campaign. My sense is that PP stands to be one of those people who are far more electable as an unknown than as a known.
Secondly is the Pratt factor. Pratt went into the last election as Mr. Missile Defence, the very icon of Martin's new more pro-US defence policy. In the immediate aftermath of Pratt's defeat, I don't think many people thought that this was played a particularly important element of the outcome in N-C. That said, the acknowledgement of wide public backlash that kicked up six months after the election which led to Martin doing a 180 on BMD and more deeply disavowing Canadian-American military cooperation should make us all revisit how much of a sleeper issue it might have been at the time. No doubt a lot of leftier Liberals or tactically-minded New Democrats who had parked their vote with Pratt when he was a Chretien-era backbencher stayed home or went to the NDP or Greens in 2004 when Pratt was suddenly revealed as Martin's answer to Geoff Hoon. They may well be back in the Grit column with Coyne as the candidate.
Finally, the Coyne factor. If she is indeed the Grit candidate, it ought to prove insteresting how the narrative shapes up regarding both her ideological and, erm, physical interactions with Trudeau. (I've already noticed some less-than-flattering commentary in one of the other riding pages, and I have a morbid curiousity to see if the Ottawa Sun will use the word "leg-over"). Trudeau-style strong federalism is a priori a much better seller to the Ottawa electorate than Martin-brand assymetricalism. The Charter will again never stray too far from the campaign spotlight this time around. More critically, Coyne won't just be one of dozens of Grit candidates nationwide who'll be draping herself in Trudeau's shadow, with varying degrees of authenticity, come the writ drop. When she says Truedau would have wanted it way X, she puts hereself in a situation where the Canadian public would probably look to only two people entitled to question such statements. (No prizes for guessing who they are, but I'll confirm that Ben Mulroney isn't one.)
Anyway, Deborah Coyne is the wrong Liberal candidate for Calgary Centre, but the right one for anywhere in Ottawa. She'll pull back in support that bled leftwards last time and inevitably benefit from the inevitable slide of Pierre Poilevre's foot up from the ground and to the back of his throat.
03 08 05 Antonio
That mention of Pierre being an alberta separatist is rather frightening. Imagine if that is actually true? Poilievre has since been quiet about these allegations. I think that his constituents deserve to know he wants to destroy Canada.
21 06 05 Mike Park
Single Issue Candidate? Do you even know who she is? Her name is Laruel Gibbons. While she is known for her particular fight on a single issue, she is far from a single issue candidate. And I might add I know quite a few CPC supporters who are less than pleased with Mr. Poilievre's performance as an MP. THEY are telling me that, thought they expect him to win, it will be MUCH closer. And some are quite upset by his shenanigans of taking credit for some funding that he had absolutely nothing to do with (the O-Train expansion). Don't discount the NDP or the Liberals out of hand and don't misrepresent Candidates.
14 06 05 P. Deshaies
I cannot understand how anyone can predict that the Liberals will retake this riding:
1-it was one of the CA's best performances in 2000;
2-even if the NDP is weak here, there is no doubt that there was considerable strategic voting, since it was generally accepted that this is a conservative riding (one of the higing results for the provincial PCs in 2003), and even if Eastern Ontario is traditionally weak NDP territory, their vote share will likely go up slightly next time, since they only got 10% last time and they are at 20%+ provincially;
3-Pierre defeated the Defense Minister last time round (no small feat);
4-Pierre is the most mentioned local MP in the Citizen by a wide margin, more so than Broadbent! And what's more, the issues he fights for (Queensway-Carleton, relocation of government jobs) are locally quite important. His presence is made ever more important by the fact that most of the city's federal Liberals are nearly invisible, with the exception of Francoise Boivin, but even then she is restricted to the Quebec side. Nepean-Carleton likes this representation, but especially the Carleton part, which is presently up in arms at City Council's (which is Liberal dominated!) propositions to dilute rural representation by merging two rural wards in the riding. I'd expect strong rural turnout in Pierre's favour;
5-finally, although Pierre may be a Stock-a-holic and a former member of the ASP, most people won't know, or even try to find out... only a minority are political junkies!
Conservative hold with absolute majority, even if the Tories are actually in 3rd place right now... Tories will hold this riding whether the Liberals win a majority or not.
26 05 05
Mr. Polievre will win Nepean-Carleton again by a handy margin. Although a good 5 to 6000 votes will move based on the national campaign, there is no doubt Pierre will capture the top spot.
The NDP are running a single-issue candidate and the liberals have yet to nominate anyone. Their front-runner is Michael Gaffney who frankly doesn't live in the riding and will have to run on his mother's record (his mother was a liberal MP a decade ago).
Pierre won with 70% majorities in many rural polls and unlike his predecessor David Pratt has actually attended dozens of events in the rural areas as well as everywhere else. I have seen him at events over and over and over again.
22 05 05
Pierre was Ezra Levant's communications director. As a Young PC, I saw Pierre and his antics while he was a card-carrying member of the Alberta Separatist Party. I challenge Pierre to prove me otherwise. He knows its true. Once the residents find out they are represented by a Stock-a-holic, they will go streaming back to the Liberals
16 05 05 Bear and Ape
The reason why Pratt lost by ONLY 3736 votes is because Poilivere is an uncharismatic Albertan transplant. BUT HE STILL LOST! Things have gone from bad to worse for the Liberals and this is a blue seat in a blue region of Ontario.
11 05 05 A. Carroll
The reason why the Liberals lost this seat in 2004 was not because of the ‘charisma’ of young Poilievre – this guy couldn’t even charm a raver-kid on ecstasy. The bottom line is that the NDP got 4142 more votes than it did in 2000. Pratt lost by 3736 votes. I think the NDP voters in Nepean Carleton have learned their lesson. This riding will go back to the Liberals, and Nepean-Carleton will finally be spared from its misrepresentation by the lost tourist from Alberta.
07 05 05 Jonathan Amor
After defeating former Defence Minister David Pratt, 25 year old Poilievre is set to take this riding quite easily. Pierre is now well loved in the community, has the benefit of incumbency and has fought hard for the residents of Nepean-Carleton on such important files as a fair deal for the Queensway Carleton Hospital and meaningful whistleblower law reform. All of this plus the fact that Nepean-Carleton is up there with Gallant's Renfrew-Nipissing Pembroke, and Reid's Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington as one of the bluest ridings in Ontario, and Pratt's decision not to run again will mean a big win for this up and coming Tory star.
Prediction: Con-51% Lib-29% NDP-12% Green 8%
05 05 05 BrianJA
This is the riding where my mom lives. Nepean, in general, is very open to Conservatives. They tend to be middle-class/upper-middle-class. Provincially, the riding is PC. It's wide open for Pierre to hold on to it. He'll have to work for it, as the Liberals will be trying to get this one back but, in the end, the Liberals will likely fall just short and it'll stay blue. Prediction: Pierre holds by less than 500 votes.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
If a 25 year old MP could take down a senior cabinet minister, then I think this is next to impossible for the liberals to regain it. Pierre Poilievre has actually done a surprisingly good job at representing the riding. And this riding is more of a suburban rather than urban riding so the Conservatives socially conservative positions likely won't hurt them here. In fact this was the Conservatives 5th best showing in Ontario percentage wise. The only reason it was competitive, is the NDP is virtually non-existent here. In fact if the Canadian Alliance could come within 2,000 votes in 2000, then that says this is a pretty strong Conservative riding since the Alliance vote will never go to the liberals; only some red tories who likely went over to the liberals last time around anyways. This was also the second strongest showing for the provincial Conservatives in 2003.
03 05 05 Nick Boragina
Being a franco ontario tory is one feat, being one of the youngest people in parliament is another. Having a solidly tory riding certainly does not hurt. Mr.Pollivere will go far, I say he'll win this seat 10 times or more, he'll be re-elected easily.
Editor’s note:Franco Ontarian? M. Pollivere is actually from Alberta!

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster