Update/Mise à jour:
12:24 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:11 AM 22/01/2006
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Peter Chirico
Dave Fluri
Meg Purdy
Anthony Rota

Anthony Rota

2004 Result/Résultats:
Anthony Rota
Al McDonald
Dave Fluri
Les Wilcox
Ross MacLean

For historical result, please see
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19 01 06 ocv
I thought this might go to the Tories, but a Sudbury Star poll found Rota has quite a large lead. Granted it was a small poll of 300 voters, but even the margin of error of +5.5 for the Tories and -5.5 for the Liberals would put this neck and neck. I think the Tories may still be shut out of Northern Ontario. Liberal numbers in this region remained high even with the mid-campaign meltdown, and now they've regained some ground. I give Rota the edge, but it'll be a tight race.
14 01 06
It's unclear as yet what effect the defection of long-time Liberal MP Benoît Serré to the NDP will have. If anything, it will help to solidify the NDP vote. It's still Rota's to lose but Chirico has a good part of the protest vote and the CPC has momentum. In light of the continued Liberal bleeding, strategic voting will have an effect in this riding. Fluri is guaranteed do well based on his performance in the debates, and will be a sleeper factor, but I think it's still way too close to call. I'll modify my earlier prediction to Lib 37.3%, CPC 36.6%, NDP 20.7%, Grn 5.4%.
24 12 05 A.S.
A predominantly Liberal record federally, yet provincially perma-identified w/Mike Harris, this open seat had all the markings of a textbook Harper breakthough in '04, what with defeated-but-still-popular Harris successor Al McDonald carrying the CPC torch--instead, it became the Tories' textbook defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory. (And as with adjacent Nickel Belt, the parts annexed from the former Timiskaming-Cochrane evidently saved the electoral day for the Liberals.) With a similarly-credentialled Tory candidate, appears to be a parallel if less-ballyhooed scenario in Nipissing now. Agreed that Dave Fluri is a sleeper factor, especially now that the seat reaches north into Charlie Angus's Tri-Town heartland--but no more than that; though it does remind us that it's only been Mike Harris populism that's stood in the way of *potential* NDP strength in Nipissing (a Northern Ontario seat, after all) over the past generation or more...
22 12 05 M. Lunn
Last time around this was a close race since there was no incumbent while the Tories had a former MPP. This time around they have a former mayor of North Bay, which may help in North Bay, but that is where they did the worse in the riding. It is true Mike Harris held this riding even during the 1987 provincial disaster, but this riding is neither a liberal or conservative riding, rather an incumbent riding. This is actually one of the few ridings where the Tories got above the 2000 combined PC/CA vote. The Liberals also got 57% in 2000 when they had an incumbent. Off Course Anthony Rota won't get that level of support due to the decline in party support.
04 12 05 pun-dit
This will be a fun campaign to watch. There's a fairly good chance that Anthony Rota will keep his seat but the kingmaker in this campaign will be the NDP, especially given the fact that tonight's news shows that Dave Fluri will be running for them again. This will probably be the first time in a very long time (maybe the first time ever) that the NDP will be a factor of any sort in this riding. Fluri will have some name recognition this time and he's likely to pull down even more support than the historic level he achieved in the last election. The CPC candidate is North Bay councillor and deputy mayor, Peter Chirico, who will have to fight a North Bay-centric stigma in the outlying areas. Fluri will probably surpass 9000 votes this time, with most of those votes coming from people angry at the Liberals. Given that Rota only won this riding by 2200 votes in the last election, this contest is too close to call. I predict: Lib-38% CPC-37% NDP-21% Grn-4%.
15 11 05 T. Legacy
There are several points that I feel need to be clarified before an accurate prediction can be made. The first is that the way this riding has gone provincially in the past will have next to no impact on the next federal election. Bob Wood held this riding the entire time Mike Harris was Premier, and he won convincingly, winning more than 50% of the vote while Harris was in office. Furthermore, look at Parry Sound-Muskoka, the riding directly south. Liberal Andy Mitchell has held it federally since 1993. This was the home riding of Harris’ number two man Ernie Eves prior to his first political retirement. It just does not make sense to say what happens provincially is an accurate way of predicting what will happen federally, especially in Northern Ontario.
In addition to this the idea that North Bay deputy mayor Peter Chirico will make a substantial difference I believe is false. Was not Al McDonald the deputy mayor of North Bay once? Was he not the MPP from Nipissing-Timiskaming for a time? Yet newcomer Anthony Rota, who was even a bigger newcomer in 2004, defeated him. Cleary Anthony Rota is a very well respected person in the Nipissing-Timiskaming area, and that at the very least cancels any advantage Mr. Chirico may have merely because he is the deputy major of North Bay.
A factor that will come into play in this riding however is the rather large Aboriginal population who tends to vote Liberal, especially in Northern Ontario. Given how the Conservatives don’t place nearly the amount of emphasis on Aboriginal issues as the Liberals do, even with the anger towards the Liberals due to Kashechewan, still expect this section of the electorate to vote in favour of the Liberals.
All in all I expect this to be a close race, but Rota will hold his seat. Support for the Liberals in Ontario has remained high throughout the sponsorship scandal, and in Northern Ontario anger at the Liberals tends to translate into NDP gains, not Conservative ones. At the end of the day many people will vote Liberal if only to keep Harper and the Conservatives out. Rota will be back in Ottawa under a second straight Martin minority government when this election is over.
30 05 05 political junkie
The majority of this riding has been intact for 84 years and has voted Liberal federally for 80 of those years. It will remain Liberal in the next election. The major factors will be history, fear of Harper, lingering negative feelings towards Harris and the Tories,the low profile of the Tory candidate outside of North Bay and his unilingualism. A huge factor will be the qualities of the incumbent--Anthony Rota.This man speaks 4 languages,is well educated and has an impressive background in business and he left the National Research Council in order to enter federal politics Anthony is a special person with great potential.The Tory candidate is not that well known and certainly not as popular as the last Conservative contender. It is also well known that he approached the local Liberals to explore the possibility of seeking the nomination when it came open last year but made little progress.An interesting aside is that the 2 top contenders are both Italian in background.This competition does not sit well with local Italians. Within this community Anthony ,who speaks Italian and who has a history of involvement in Italian community activities , as the authentic Italian and has a huge lead with this significant group. Conclusion----Liberal with a significantly increased majoity.
06 05 05 Brandon
The riding of Mike Harris came close to going blue last time. Though federally a swing riding, provincially it went heavily PC during the David Peterson and Bob Rae sweeps (1 of 2 ridings to vote PC with over 50% support in 1987). This indicates these voters don't necessarily vote with the government. Harper can win here whether he becomes PM or not.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
Actually, this riding often tends to vote more for local candidates as opposed to party. It has certainly traditionally been a liberal stronghold federally, but this was Mike Harris' former riding, which he won every election since 1981, even during the Larry Grossman disaster in 1987 when the Provincial Tories only got 16 seats. Anthony Rota is a new MP and still hasn't had enough time to establish himself. If the Conservatives choose a weak candidate, Anthony Rota will be re-elected, but if they choose a strong one, he will lose his seat. Besides this is one of the few ridings the Conservatives exceeded the combined Alliance/PC vote from 2000.
03 05 05 Bull Moose
I'm going to go out on that limb and say Conservative in this typically Lib. riding. Last year the Conservatives closed the gap from over 10,000 votes to 2000. I think with Deputy Mayor of North Bay Peter Chirico carrying the Tory Flag against new comer Rota the Conservatives finish the job in 2005.... You heard it here first... Chirico M.P. for Nipissing-Timiskaming
02 05 05 Craig
As the Liberals are losing support rapidly outside of their GTA stronghold, this will be one of many more seats to fall, as Northern Ontario collapses on them to the Tories and NDP. This riding is basically two clear support lines - heavily Conservative on the Highway 11 axis, heavily Liberal on the Highway 17 axis. Ultimately, I think the city of North Bay will turn into a 3-way split with a slight Conservative lean, and the southern part will be extra-motivated, especially if a social conservative wins the nomination. Predicted results: CPC 41%, LIB 34%, NDP 21%, GRN 4%.

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