Update/Mise à jour:
12:23 PM 17/01/2006

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11:55 PM 10/05/2005
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Ottawa South

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Allan Cutler
John Ford
David McGuinty
Henri Sader
Progressive Canadian
Brad Thomson

David McGuinty

2004 Result/Résultats:
David McGuinty
Alan Riddell
Monia Mazigh
John Ford
John Akpata
Brad Thomson
Raymond Aubin
Saroj Bains

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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16 01 06 resident of ottawa south
In my neighbourhood, Alta Vista, which is pretty strong Liberal terrirory. As of about Jan .1, McGuinty was winning the sign war about 10 to 1 over the past week this has changed dramatically: Cutler is now even with McGuinty or better in private property signs and the strongest Liberal polls in the riding which some properties even taking down Liberal signs and replacing them with Conservative ones.
Moreover, McGuinty's most visible signs are re-used from the last campaign with the "Team Martin" logo emblazoned on them as big as the name of the candidate. The tide is shifting fast here and I think that Cutler will win with a margin in the range of 1000.
10 01 06 Graydon
A McGuinty losing in Ottawa South, that's a real stretch.
McGuinty won by 5,000 votes in the previous election in the midst of an incredibly unpopular budget by his brother, the Premier of Ontario.
I find it incredible that people think Alan Cutler has a snowball's chance in hell of winning this election. His nomination was more a gimmick that played to his support nationally. But his inexperience and terrible one on one and public speaking abilities will cost him dearly.
The McGuinty ground organization is one of the oldest and best in Ottawa, if not the country. He has been an effective MP and spent all of his time in the riding in the last seventeen months. Allegations of corruption will not stick to the McGunity name and he will win in a walk.
Look for McGuinty to be left standing regardless of whether the Liberals tank nationally in the last two weeks.
07 01 06 JGH
Time to start flipping some of those Liberal flags in Eastern Ontario to TCTC. I went away for the holidays for a week with a neighbourhood with mostly McGuinty signs up, and came back to see dabs of blue signs starting to appear across the riding. And I live in Alta Vista, in which I understand direct relatives of David McGuinty comprise a near-majority ;-)
I'm not going to make a Conservative projection here because I frankly have a great deal of respect for David McGuinty as a candidate - he certainly hustles on the hustings. Whether this is enough to deliver this riding back to him given the general trend to the Conservatives is at least up for debate. Looking for a relatively close finish, unless the bottom drops out from under the CPC campaign a la 2004.
06 01 06 Rebel
Going through the southern neighbourhoods by bus suggested the following...
Windsor Park 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal [traditionally Conservative]
Hunt Club 9 Conservative 4 Liberal [Liberal last time]
Riverside Park 12 Conservative 5 Liberal [Liberal last time]
I'm predicting a close Conservative win right now, based on good Ontario polling. But last time, the Conservative were probably leading at this point in the riding as well.
05 01 06 Blueyonder
Listening to conversations from those in the south, this sounds like it is an NDP/Liberal race. I give McGuinty the edge because he is the incumbent and has done nothing to turn the residents of the area against him. Despite the high profile of Cutler, I don't believe he can overtake McGuinty. As well, McGuinty's brother has started to turn the corner in his leadership. I predict a solid Liberal win.
03 01 06 B.N.
Another riding where a Liberal prediction is premature. Make no mistake, the Conservatives are targeting Ottawa South and they have a star candidate to boot. And Cutler isn't just any old star candidate. He's a civil servant. And one who was treated poorly and became an innocent victim of the sponsorship affair. Now, who do you think lives in this riding? Ottawa is a government town and middle-class civil servants abound here. If ever there was a star candidate with whom his constituency can empathize based on their own employment experiences and expectations, Allan Cutler would be his name.
McGuinty won by only 9% last time. All it's going to take for this seat to change hands is for Cutler to pull in 4 or 5% from his own power. If the recent Tory polling fortunes keep up then it's just extra assurance.
03 01 06 Aric H
Ottawa South could go Conservative if the Conservatives pull ahead of the Liberals in a big way, but it will be Ottawa-Orleans that is the bellwether riding for Conservative fortunes in Ottawa. People know the Conservatives have a good chance at Ottawa West-Nepean, but what will determine their strength is whether they can take Ottawa-Orleans. In 2004 the Liberals won Ottawa South by a larger margin than they won Ottawa-Orleans. In addition, Ottawa South did not go PC provincially in 1999 the way Ottawa-Orleans did, so it is a stronger Liberal riding. Ottawa-Orleans will fall to the Conservatives before Ottawa South, and so the two ridings need to be looked at together. If Ottawa-Orleans goes Conservative there is a chance that Ottawa South could, but if Ottawa-Orleans doesn't go Conservative, it's unlikely that Ottawa South will either.
29 12 05 love, sydney
The margin to switch this riding isn't huge, and besides the solid Tory campaign (so far) and shaky Liberal run, the two front runners offer interesting contrasts.
Mcguinty is affabled and well respected, but there are many people who'd like to punt a McGuinty sooner than later and this is their first chance. Also, Cutler, although non-descript and accountant type demeanor, has the touch of hero about him, which the Tories are trying to take to the bank. It makes for an interesting battle but i sense that the Tories will have this by nearly 2,000 votes in the end.
27 12 05 Rebel
The Liberals last time were helped by probably 1,500 NDP voters who deserted Masigh before election day, but also by a swing against the Conservatives from very high income voters (the highest income polls in the riding were the only ones to actually show a positive Liberal vote beftween 2000-2004).
Now I suspect that 2,000 Masigh voters will drop away this time and represented her personal votes from heavily muslim polls (her vote gains were highly concentrated from 2000 and not at all across the board). A number of these won't vote this time, but the Liberals can probably get a further plurality of 750 or so from that...Now the NDP may gain some other voters back from the Liberals, perhaps fewer Muslims and more civil servants or simply left wing Liberals who find the Liberal brand tarnished this time.
I see the Conservatives working middle income areas hard and also expect civil servants voting for one of their own. Many civil servants have felt the sting of Liberal "entitlement" in the form of patronage that rages today unabated, the increasing politicization of the civil service in general and then, fo coruse, the debacle of Adscam. Even last time, the Conservatives ran well in the only nearly purely civil servant poll in the riding, aka, Special Voting Rules Voters #1...where the Liberals edged the Conservatives 141 to 131 votes (these are mostly a combination of military and foreign service voters). The focus of the Conservative campaign has been middle-income and family oriented (e.g. child care grants/grants for organized sports). The Ottawa 67's coach, Brian Kilrea, has endorsed Cutler for example.
The interesting question will be where high income voters will go...staying with the Liberals as they swung last time...or defecting to the Conservatives and Allan Cutler.
27 12 05 Victor A.
David McGuinty is likely to win this competitive battle despite the Liberal Party being down in the polls in Eastern Ontario. I think that Allan Cutler is an excellent candidate however this time around the issue of the Provincial Tax Hike that was there last time is not there. Of course, it is of crucial importance to David since his brother broke his electoral promise of not raising taxes during the last federal election. Now, on the other hand David had to face a candidate that seemed distant, ineffective and unimpressive the last time around and the overall result was much closer of what it should have been. Allan Cutler is certainly a stronger candidate and with CPC scoring well in Eastern Ontario it could be a CPC pick-up but I do think that no controversy around Dalton plus David's very good performance ( be it on the riding level or in debates in and outside of the House of Commons ) will just save him in what otherwise would have been a second CP pick-up in Eastern Ontario. Don't count Cutler out as of yet, but as of right now I'd say McGuinty wins by 3 % over Cutler. ( In 2004 the difference between the LP and the CP was of 5 % )
26 12 05 JAM
Hi Nick:
You make a couple of interesting points but if we saw a NDP "star" candidate last time around, then the dippers are in a lotta trouble!
Monia Mazigh turned off a lot of potential voters due to her stand on abortion and other "women" related issues.... voters that I guarantee to you did NOT run to the CPC camp!
NDP voters will not - in general - vote Conservative - under any circumstances. They may go Green or vote Grit but not CPC.
There is simply too much of an ideological leap for many folks who are on the left side of the social spectrum but have few problems with middle of the road or slightly right of centre fiscal and monetary policies. Your statement "many NDPers are just as angry about sponsorship as alot of the Tories are" is true, but they won't neccesarily mark an "X" in Mr Cutler's box.
Even if, say, the NDP loses 25% of their 8000 votes (2000) and for the sake of argument, half go CPC, 750 go Green and the rest go elsewhere, the CPC is not going to make up enough ground to cover and surpass the Grits' 5300 vote spread.
But who knows? There is plenty of time left for one party or another to make a gaffe (or gaffes) big enough to send all of our prognostications into the nearest poubelle!
23 12 05 Nick Boragina
Most posters here are forgetting two important things.
First, the last NDP candidate, was a "star candidate" This means the NDP is destined to lose some votes.
Second, just as many NDPers are willing to vote Liberal to stop the tories from doing social conservative things, many NDPers are just as angry about sponsorship as alot of the Tories are.
Cutler is sponsorship, and I believe that enough last-time NDP voters, as well as enough new voters will vote tory to push this one over the top
it'll be close, but it's doable
23 12 05 Two Cents
I am a former civil servant and don't agree that civil servants will automatically vote for McGuinty. There is a lot of bitterness within the public service over the Liberals ever since the big layoffs in the Martin Budget of 1995, let alone lingering problems in the way that the bilingualism policies are implemented. If you look closely you'll note that the Conservatives have been much stronger in Eastern Ontario than in the Toronto area. One reason is the lukewarm support for the Liberasl among civil servants.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this back into the Liberal column. While I thought Allan Cutler was a great choice of candidate, from what I've read it doesn't seem to being have too big an effect considering that outside of Quebec most people moved on from the sponsorship scandal. Had they run Allan Cutler last time around, it would have been a lot closer, since David McGuinty was suffering from the unpopular budget of his brother Dalton McGuinty, but this time around Dalton McGuinty has done anything to tank the Liberal campaign yet and likely won't considering he endorsed Paul Martin this time around. The Tories did well at the south end of the riding near the airport, but considering how close this riding comes to the Downtown, it is probably a little too urban for the Conservatives. If they pick up any Ottawa ridings it will be Ottawa West-Nepean.
21 12 05 Rebel
McGuinty should have sign lists from the last campaign to give him a bit of a head start. In the western part of the riding...Riverside Park and Hunt Club, I see hardly any signs from anyone. All the parties are way down from the last campaign...it may be that the sign war is just beginning but in my neighbourhood a two to one lead when you only have two signs doesn't obviously point to a re-election.
19 12 05 KB
Mr. McGuinty won with a 5000 vote majority last time. Ottawa South is littered with his signs even at this early stage. It is highly unlikely that he will not win this riding. Even with his "name recognition" Alan Cutler is still a rookie candidate with a green team. I think, given that the general public is still very uneasy with Harper as a leader, canvassing with him is not going to result in any massive shift for Mr. Cutler.
16 12 05 Rebel
A few things...I note the Democratic Space riding prediction project has this riding going back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives.
Polls vary but some recent ones suggest that the Conservatives will pick up a few seats in Ontario and if so, this could be one of them.
My home has been canvassed by the Liberal candidate, but Cutler actually has Mrs Harper canvassing with him a week ago. Signs are very few. The two Liberal I have seen were there last time, a Conservative sign is new but all the Parties have just started their sign war.
Right now I think it is too close to call between either a narrow Conservative win to a Liberal win that is reduced from last time.
16 12 05 JAM
I really cannot see this riding going any way but Liberal. The riding profile is simply too immigrant and public servant heavy to go any other way. Mr. Cutler may be an honourable man - even Mr. McGuinty gives him credit for what he did - but public servants are not going to help elect a government that may put their jobs in jeopardy through downsizing.
It is also a riding whose constituents are highly educated - which is highly correlated to left of centre attitudes on the social policy spectrum. In spite of the fact that the CPC platform steers clear of an pro-Christian stance, it is still a party that is perceived to contain many of these elements (eg, anti-abortion, pro-capital punishment, stiffening of draconian drug laws, closer ties with the US).
Lastly, the incumbent is winning the sign war in the early goings (not that this is a good indicator).
Unless there is a BIG stumble, the Liberals have to consider this to be one of the safer ridings in the province.
12 12 05 The Humble Prophet
I think that this riding should be placed in the "Too close to call" column. Although McGuinty won by 5000 last time, there are a number of reasons why the Conservatives have a good chance this time. First, Allan Cutler is a legitimate star candidate. Many protest voters who might vote Green or NDP in this riding will vote for the "little guy" who took on corruption. Second, in the last election, the Conservative Alan Riddell had to ward off embarrassing charges of drunk driving, hardly the type of allegations you want to deal with during an election campaign, and yet he only lost by about 5000 votes. Third, if it continues to look like the Liberals are leading and there is no chance of a Harper government, bureaucrats will vote for Cutler without fear of repercussions. I still think that McGuinty should win, but if so, it will be a squeaker and therefore this should not be posted as an automatic Liberal win.
12 12 05 Robert
The best opportunity for the Conservatives to win Ottawa South was the last election. McGuinty will win by a greater margin this time when you take into account that Monia is not in the race.
It looks like Cutler has been victimised twice - first by the Public Service and now by the Conservative Party.
08 12 05 Jim Abbott
Cutler will pull a Monia Mazigh and make a big noise but score few votes. He can get all the media attention he wants, but he won't get bureaucrats to vote for Stephen Harper. Add to the mix the army of provincial government staffers who will show up to help out David McGuinty and you have a recipe for an easy Liberal hold.
07 12 05 Morgan
"many civil servants, I suspect, may have felt the same sort of political pressures that Allan Cutler felt and will admire him as a result" Perhaps, but how many civil servants are going to vote for a party that is likely to reduce the civil service and therefore cost them their jobs. I can't see any of the Ottawa ridings going Conservative, including this one.
06 12 05 KB
Cutler is a parachuted candidate who launched his campaign at a Yacht Club in another riding (the one which he actually lives in.) An odd choice given that the conservatives are running a campaign about standing up for the average Canadian. I don't think being the cheapest MP will hurt McGuinty and the argument that it is because he hasn't done anything is pretty weak. He has made considerable in-roads with left leaners and in communities that are often neglected by elected representatives. He also has a solid base of support in the riding; it is his home community. Cutler's reputation as "the whistle blower" may give him some recognition but will only carry him so far, from seeing him speak this week he is not a strong candidate. I don't think the $50,000 pay out is going to play well against his 'integrity in government' message.
05 12 05 Adam
Cutler's office opening today was packed. For anyone to say that he will not put a fight against McGuinty is a joke. He will have many big names helping his campaign. As for the comment about not living in the riding, he lives on the border and has lived in Ottawa for his whole life.
05 12 05 MK
Whilst I can't say I have lived in this riding before I have however lived in Ottawa for six years and feel comfortable in going out on a limb and saying that Cutler will take this for the Tories.
Cutler is getting a LOT of media attention (national media attention at that) and he strikes a special cord with voters, that of a humble public servant unjustly punished, whereas McGuinty represents the upper echelons of Liberalism.
Yes the Liberals have a lot of support in the riding (minorities, urban voters) but I believe it is a mile wide and an inch deep. I think this riding went Tory before 1993. I also remember that in the 1999 provincial election a lowly investment banker (can't remember his profession nor his name exactly) gave Dalton McGuinty a run for his money. At the end of the night McGuinty was the last leader to be declared elected in his own riding.
I also hear the Liberals are calling for an investigation into Cutler's nomination... I just saw Cutler interviewed on CBC and he is taking the high road on this particular issue and makes the Liberals look shameful. I would dare say that all Ottawa ridings are going Tory except for: Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa-Centre, and Ottawa-Orleans (ie. Cutler, Poilievre, Baird, and O'Connor will be elected).
Cutler by 2,000 votes.
05 12 05 Rebel
Masigh did increase the NDP vote from 3,400 to over 8,000...I suspect 2,500 or so may have been lost in the last week of the campaign.
I would not ordinarily use quotation marks to describe Allan Cutler's integrity or his approach to the issue. I'm sure that there are a lot of civil servants in the riding who have greatly admired his opposition to the worst political pressures of Adscam and maybe even weigh their votes as a result.
05 12 05 ML
Allan Cutler doesn't live in Ottawa South. He doesn't know the community and I doubt he'll be anything more than a single-issue candidate. His 'integrity' lines are going to sound pretty ripe considering Harper paid off Allan Riddell to the tune of 50 grand to step aside so the whistleblower could run. If you ask me, David McGuinty's going to blow him out of the water. Remember all the hype about Monia Mazigh?
04 12 05 A. Dewhirst
This one definitely got interesting with the shock 'star' candidate announcement a few weeks ago. Cutler is well known to news junkies, but I don't think his name will be as familiar to the average voter as McGuinty's (thanks to his brother at Queen's Park).
Not getting a cabinet post has been a mixed blessing for McGuinty, as he's been able to spend most of his time in the multicultural riding. Getting headlines for being the cheapest M.P. won't hurt either. I say Libs, but a dogfight, with support for neophyte Cutler coming in truckloads from Conservative HQ, no doubt.
01 12 05 Rebel
I think that there are a lot of civil servants who know who Allan Cutler is and they live in the riding...This segment of the electorate followed Adscam very closely and many civil servants, I suspect, may have felt the same sort of political pressures that Allan Cutler felt and will admire him as a result.
Too close to call right now...very early...
04 12 05 Two Cents
The controversy over the way Cutler was handed the nomination (see CBC-TV National news on December 1 about the way the party brass dumped Alan Riddell) will definitely have a short-term negative impact, particularly in Cutler's ability to rally the local troops on the ground. Nevertheless, it's a long campaign and Riddell's supporters will eventually fall into line as defeating McGuinty is of higher priority for them than holding a grudge against Cutler who is not personally responsible for the mess dumped on him from party headquarters.
30 11 05 ocv
Who the hell is Allan Cutler? Aside from some news junkies, no one knows and no one cares. McGuinty has the name recognition here. It'll be close, but McGuinty has the machinery to pull this one off.
27 11 05 Two Cents
Allan Cutler's candidacy makes this district a shoo-in for the Conservatives. Even those who may not normally gravitate towards the Tories will see a vote for Cutler as a way to send a message on Gomery. As for the Liberals scare tactics, my sense is that many civil servants and former civil servants have seen both Liberals and Conservatives up close and understand that despite all the rhetoric, there is not much difference in the end. That being the case, why not "clean house" in the wake of Gomery and start afresh? Moreover, McGuinty has been invisible as an MP and has done nothing of note to capture any extra support on a personal level.
23 11 05 M. Lunn
With the choice of Allan Cutler as the candidate, I am moving this to too close to call. Conservatives generally don't tend to do well in urban areas, and historically this riding has generally gone Liberal, so this would make it a tough place to win. At the same time, There don't seem to be as many people in Ottawa who fear Stephen Harper as in Toronto. In addition, Alan Riddell got 34% vs. David McGuinty's 42%, which is pretty good for a rather lousy candidate. Even should Cutler be unsuccessful, his candidacy will likely give more credibility to the claims the Conservatives are a more honest party, therefore helping in more winnable ridings such as Ottawa West-Nepean.
23 11 05 Bear and Ape
Looks like everyone was watching the news, Allan Cutler is seeking the CPC nomination in Ottawa South. As much of a stir this is causing amongst those of us who spend way too much time pondering outcomes of future election, it is probably still premature to call this "too close to call" let alone a CPC win. Ottawa South is a fairly Liberal riding, and though the CPC was very competitive in the last election, McGuinty had to deal with his big brother's broken promises. This has faded in people's minds and (prior to Cutler's announcement) we felt that McGuinty would win with a larger margin. For now we feel that if Cutler runs, McGuinty will win by a margin close to what he had last time. Time will tell though and we both feel that this race has just gotten alot more interesting. We'll be watching...
23 11 05 JGH
From the CBC: The Conservatives have enlisted the former civil servant who first objected to the procurement practices that grew into the sponsorship scandal to be a candidate in the coming federal election.
Allan Cutler was being introduced to the Conservative caucus Wednesday morning. He is expected to run in Ottawa South against Liberal incumbent David McGuinty, the brother of Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty.
Assuming he wins the nomination (not sure whether former candidate Allan Riddell will continue to seek the nom), this is quite a positive sign for the Conservatives. At this point in time, I still think you have to give the riding to the Liberals - McGuinty is the incumbent, there won't be a Dr. Mazigh to draw a couple of thousand votes away to the NDP, we don't know how Cutler will do as a candidate - by a smidge. But I like the choice that the Conservatives will be able to place in front of Ottawa South voters. Whistleblower v. McGuinty. Nice.
23 11 05 Tylere
I just saw that Allan Cutler is seeking the nomination in this riding. As a few of you have said above, this riding will depend on the Conservative candidate... could they have found a better one?
23 11 05 Rebel
Allan Cutler, the original whistle-blower in the Adscam scandal, announced his candidacy for the Conservative nomination in Ottawa South. He is likely to face Alan Riddell, the 2004 candidate, and Gordon Kubanek, the former president of the riding association.
23 11 05 watcher
This just in: Allan Cutler, the original whistle-blower of the sponsorship scandal, is seeking the Ottawa South nomination for the Conservative Party.
If he gets the nomination, I will move this riding into too close to call.
30 10 05 Rebel
I noticed that David McGuinty spent the least amount of travel money than any MP last year...some $35...Is this a statement of frugality or of inactivity? At the very least, it suggests that he doesn't attend any of the Liberal caucus meetings held outside Ottawa.
Also, Masigh last time ran well in strongly Muslim polls, taking one and dramaticly increasing the NDP vote in these areas...
Lastly, Barry Turner resigned his nomination a few months ago so the Conservatives will need to nominate a candidate again.
22 10 05 A.S.
My intuition that Monia Mazigh was the most overblown story of the '04 election turned out to be true, right down to her "unsurprising" lost deposit; there's no evidence that the NDP would have done better or worse with a more routine standard-bearer. (Indeed, I wouldn't be too surprised if the NDP sleepwalks into a *better* result this time, at but a fraction of the national publicity. A footnote: for whatever metaphorical reason one wants to read, a lot of the worst NDP polls were above-average Green polls, and vice versa.) As for Barry Turner, he may have federal experience, but it's as a fluke Mulroney-landslide one-term wonder--and he was pulverized by John Manley in 1988. He still makes this seat competitive, together with the coattails of nearby elected members (and John Baird's prospects). But it's more likely that through being elected at all, David McGuinty's earned his right to stay--all the more so if bro' doesn't pull any more seat-threatening budget boners like last time...
20 07 05 M. Lunn
This is traditionally a liberal stronghold and was only close last time around due the unpopular McGuinty budget which obviously hurt his brother David McGuinty. This time around I think the liberals should hold this even though Barry Turner is a stronger candidate than Alan Riddell so the results shouldn't be too much different than last time. The liberals will also probably gain some of the NDP votes since the NDP had Maher Arar's wife Mona Azingh as their candidate.
17 07 05 Brandon
The Tories won Ottawa South in the advanced polls; massively! While the other 16 Ontario ridings that went CPC in the advanced polls are set to "too close to call," this one is not. Perhaps a change is overdue.
03 06 05 Dean
You will recall my last prediction was 24.6.04 and suggested a Conservative win of 500-1,000 votes. You will also recall a sharp Liberal trend in the last weekend of the campaign, particularly felt in Ontario and lower mainland BC. That turned a good split in seats in Ontario to a 3-1 Liberal lead on election day. I note that this was obviously felt in Ottawa South (this was especially felt in high income areas in the riding, interestingly enough, though Riddell ran very well in some quite poor-income polls in Sheffield Park and Heatherington). The Advance Polls in Ottawa South, I think showed what might have happened if election day had been one or two weeks earlier. It had the Conservative lead in Ottawa South 3,188 to 2,819 or 5.2%. A number of ridings across Ontario showed big Conservative leads in the Advance, but a liberal lead on election day votes.
18 05 05 Rebel
Barry Turner, who ran twice for the PCs in Ottawa South/Ottawa Carleton, was acclaimed the Conservative candidate last night. He should prove an excellent candidate for the Conservatives and comes from the northern Alta Vista portion of the riding that usually votes Liberal. The Alta Vista counsellor, Peter Hume, has endorsed his candidacy. NDP and Green candidates not yet known. Ontario poll sub-samples are all over the place. Too close to call now...but at this stage likely a closer contest than the 5,300 margin last time.
16 05 05 Reality Check
Dean: Are you one in the same who in the 2004 election in Ottawa South predicted "Conservative win by 500-1,000 votes or so..." and "I'm predicting it will so that Riddell wins by 1,500 votes or so?" If so, you have shown yourself to the absolute worst prognosticator on the site. If not, a word to the wise, change your name. Moreover, a swing district Ottawa South is not. First, it’s a riding. And second, swing means the riding alternates between political parties. Since the riding has been Liberal federally and provincially, since 1988 and 1987, respectively, how can you make yet another erroneous claim? Time to move onto something else!
11 05 05 Dean
The Liberals took this riding by less than their Ontario-wide majority so it is definitely a swing district. As a constituent, I'm surprised by the suggestion that McGuinty has made a splash as MP. Looking at media, even his MP flyers, suggests that he has been an ordinary back-bencher and not the "heading to cabinet" star he was packaged as last time. The riding will go as Ontario does...How will Ontario go? Two polls out today shows a big Liberal lead and a narrow Conservative one...too early to say...
12 05 05 Two Cents
I am stunned at Stonewall's glowing assessment of David McGuinty's role as an MP. I am a resident of Ottawa South and in my view he has been surprisingly ineffective MP. In particular, he has failed to create a local image that might attract independent voters. Indeed, his invisibility in the local media suggests that local voters still know virtually nothing about him other than the fact he is a Liberal and the brother of the premier.
This means he has not yet been able to build any independent political base of his own and that his support is likely to be vulnerable to national trends.
In other words, if the Conservatives do well in Eastern Ontario and the Ottawa region, then there is no reason for Ottawa South not to participate in the trend. This is not a riding where the local candidate has any special personla base he can draw upon. The only question is whether he can drawn upon his brother's organization. In the last elcetion he called upon the Ottawa Centre organization when it became clear that Broiadbent was going to win. This time he will have to do everything on his own - a much bigger challenge.
10 05 05 Stonewall
David McGuinty will win with a bigger margin of victory this election than he did in 2004. He has proven himself to be a representative of Ottawa South residents that we are accustomed to having elected: Class and competence. No matter the Conservative candidate, nor the NDP standard-bearer, David will either garner a bare majority or come close to a majority. Furthermore, he has proven himself to be a loyal and competent member of the government. When the Liberals are re-elected, we should see David in Cabinet.
09 05 05 hatman
My own personal riding will go Liberal fo sure. It will be a lot closer, but it all comes down to who the tory candidate is. By the looks of it, it may be Alan Riddell. The man is a looney bin! At least, that's what he is seen as by the public. Unless the tories are wise and pick a different person to run here, expect David McGuinty, the brother of the premier (who is becoming more and more popular despite a few problems last year) to win this hands down. Don't forget all that NDP support that went to Monia shifting back to Liberals. (Mostly Muslims, this riding has the highest muslim population in Ontario).
09 05 05 M. Lunn
Unlike last time around when people were mad at Dalton McGuinty, I think the fact David McGuinty is the premier's brother maybe more of an asset than liability this time around. This riding certainly leans liberal, but the Conservatives chose a weak candidate last time around and still did surprisingly well. So if the Conservatives can regain some of the ground they lost in the last week and nominate a strong candidate, they could take this one, although I would still give the edge to the liberals.
08 05 05 Craig
Too close to call. David McGuinty was scared last time by a very weak Conservative (and a star candidate for the NDP who was in a bad riding for her) in what is normally a safe Liberal seat. This seat is the 3rd least likely in eastern Ontario to go Conservative, but it is still possible. It all depends on who they nominate - a stronger Conservative will get the job done. If not, McGuinty holds. Predicted results: LIB 43%, CPC 42%, NDP 9%, GRN 5%, others 1%.

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