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Parry Sound-Muskoka
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Jo-Anne Boulding
Tony Clement
Glen Hodgson
Andy Mitchell

Hon. Andy Mitchell

2004 Result/Résultats:
Andy Mitchell
Keith Montgomery
Jo-Anne Marie Boulding
Glen Hodgson

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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19 01 06 Mike
Two National Newspapers, the Toronto Star and the GLobe and Mail, have predicted Clement's victory here. One source even suggested that Clement is actually beating his opponent by double-digits. I think it will be much closer than that, but hey, with Clement becoming prominent in the media and benefiting from a good national campaign, he most likely will be able to pull it off. Conservative steal by 5-8%.
16 01 06 Who's Socks?
Tony Clement had to travel a long way, but he finally found a riding where people would elect him. It's a long way from the beating Clement took in his home town of Mississauga to his parachute victory next week in Huntsville but it's going to happen. You just have to drive around the riding to see that Clement has won the sign war. Harper made a pit stop here last week because the riding is going Tory. Andy Mitchell has been a hard working and solid MP for this riding but this is politics in the 21st century where that doesn't matter when the media declare a Tory victory two weeks before election day and the only question is how many seats Harper gets.
Clement will be a cabinet minister.
10 01 06 Rich Stivrins
Although Mitchell is well known as a good constituency MP it appears as though he's running from behind this time around. The Clement campaign seems to be extremely well organized. The sign war is certainly going the Conservative's way and the numbers are looking much less favourable for the Liberals in Ontario this time than last. Looks like a recipe for Tony Clement to pull out a close one.
05 01 06 Dennis
PROGRESSIVE Conservatives are electable in Parry Sound-Muskoka. Tony Clement will have a tough time convincing the voters here that there is any "progressive" left in the new Conservative party and Andy Mitchell does all the right things locally.
10 12 05 quasar
Okay, Clement's kinda nerdy and definitely not the most charismatic guy, but unlike the previous candidate, he can debate and he knows his stuff. There's a lot of anti-liberal feelings here, and with a good campaign Clement can pull through.
10 12 05 Mike
There are many reasons why I think Tony will be able to take this riding:
1) In areas up here, people feel quite unheard, and being just one of those ridings two hours north of Toronto, Parry Sound is never put in the spotlight. Because of this, people here often vote for the candidate that they feel will best represent their concerns in Parliament and make their beliefs heard on the floor of the House of Commons. Voters know that Tony Clemet will be able to do that. Whether the Conservatives come to power or not, Tony will play a big role in the Party, and will have influence on public policy.
2) Although he is not from here, is a viewed as a good and trustworthy politician. He carries no baggage (any argument made against him in the Eves years has become outdated and irrelevant). HE is also viwed as a man who will ensure that he represents his constituents properly.
3) The fact that he has tried so hard to get elected I think helps him. Some people point to opportunism, others point to sheer willing to do good, but either way, Clement has racked up 'pity' votes within the electorate, and I think that third time in the Federal scene will be the charm.
Bottom line: he's a popular guy and will get recognition for it, in a riding that has traditionally gone Conservative.
08 12 05 DsW
Parry Sound - Muskoka voters hate a carpet bagger - just look at Lewis Mackenzie. Tony Clement will get clobbered, with Andy Mitchell's personal popularity and position in cabinet just added nails in the coffin.
07 12 05 m.b.
I do believe that this will be one of quite a few Tory pickups on election day. Considering the unqualified candidate the Conservatives nominated against beloved MP Andy Mitchell, MItchell should have won by more than 4000 votes- but he didn't. No one can refute that Tony Clement is qualified in politics, he was a cabinet minister. And let us not forget, this riding was one of a handful that gladly embraced Common Sense conservatism. It is still a PC riding now, the very fact McGuinty's Red Tide failed to wash it away says something. This, folks, is a Conservative riding, through and through. Vote-splitting and lousy candidates has hampered the right in this riding, but this time, they will emerge the winner.
04 12 05 Chris
This one's gonna be tight. From what I hear there appears to be a lot of anti-Lib anger. Paired with a high-profile Conservative candidate and a riding that was Conservative for years - Tony Clement may be able to unseat the incumbent.
03 12 05
Tony take a hint and GIVE UP, how many times can you loose? If you could not win in your own Brampton riding what makes you think you can win up North?
29 11 05 Erik
Andy only won the last election by 8% over his nearest competitor, an amateur, rookie politician who spoke poorly and stubled over questions. he was overly religious, and had nothing really in common with PS-M voters. Now we have Tony Clement, who is a seasoned politician, is a great speaker, a good debator, and a lot better in most ways than Keith Montgomery ever was.
26 10 05
Poor Tony. He's an amiable person and has a lot to offer on the policy front, but I just can't see him winning this seat. He's tarred as a perennial loser and, unfortunately in this media-conscious age, his "nerdy" image and the way he is parachuting into the riding will hurt him. So although this riding under most scenarios should be Conservative, I am predicting a Liberal win here.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Based on its history this is definitely one of the more conservative ridings in Ontario considering the provincial PCs have won this seat in every election since 1945 and the federal PCs won it in every election from 1945-1993. However, unlike in urban areas, incumbents carry a lot of weight in rural areas so Andy Mitchell's incumbency is a huge advantage to the liberals. Even star candidate General Lewis Mackenzie was unable to beat Andy Mitchell, although he did do a lot better than the PCs did in 1993 or 2000 so maybe Tony Clement can increase his share of the vote enough to take this as the Conservatives only lost by 7% last time around. I predict Andy Mitchell will likely hold this by a narrow margin and this will go back to the Tories once he retires from politics. If Tony Clement loses this riding, he has no choice at being the next Conservative leader, so he will absolutely need to win this if he wants to be the next Conservative leader and even then I still don't think he will be the next leader.
28 07 05 RJW
Andy Mitchell is a survivor, that's for sure. He has a large amount of personal popularity which I believe will protect him from similar rural Ontario Lib-to-Con switchovers. It'll be close again but I believe that Tony Clement has the air of a loser lately. Plus he's a carpetbagger.
09 07 05 Hootie
You people are on crack if you think Clement can win here.
Andy Mitchell is a well regarded CabMin and is one of the best Constit MPs in the country. He won this riding last time by 8%, and as much as Tony thinks otherwise, he's not going to lose any of his support.
Mitchell in a walk, Tony to run for the Federal Leadership regardless.
29 05 05 punditman
I've changed my earlier TCTC prediction to the Conservatives. For these reasons:
1)Andy Mitchell won last time....but only by 4000 votes, and to an underqualified, uncharismatic guy with a brain the size of a brazil nut. The CPC has former Ontario Health Minister Tony Clement running here, someone who is clearly everything Keith Montgomery isn't.
2)This is a not a pro-liberal riding. It is a conservative riding that voted Liberal in 1993 due to Mulroney scandal and Kim Campbell idiocy, and just stuck with Andy Mitchell because they liked him. Before Mitchell, PS-M voted Conservative for 25 straight years, even during Trudeaumania. Provincially, it is also conservative.
4) A fair amount of people here are socially conservative, or are moderate conservatives who aren't scared of Harper the way the rest of Ontario is.
19 05 05 James Bond
One of the most fascinating races to watch in '05.
Although PS-M was impacted by the late provincial slide back to the Grits, the campaign was really lost locally. Montgomery was a mediocre candidate who ran a BAD campaign. Local Tories seemed to have learned their lesson - they aggressively courted Clement and have kept him very visible.
I don't think that the "parachute" factor is as much as an issue as others have suggested. The Liberals strength in the past few elections has primarily been in the towns (especially Gravenhurst & Bracebridge). These places are not the sleepy little villages of years past - they've had a large influx of people from the GTA and the near-GTA (Barrie, etc.). Those voters lack roots in the community and really won't care where Clement is from.
I'd give a very, very slight nod to Clement at this point, but Mitchell will not go down without a major fight.
15 05 05 A.S.
The moment I know the Liberals defied the pundits and cinched the '04 election was when, rather soon after the Ontario polls closed, it was announced they held onto Parry Sound-Muskoka. After all, this is hallowed Tory turf. Stan Darling's longtime seat; Lew Mackenzie's 1997 target. And don't leave out the provincial record, straddling pre-premier Ernie Eves territory and Frank Miller's Sin City *ahem* Muskoka. (And Miller's son Norm currently holds fort at Queen's Park.) So it's the kind of seat which, according to all logic, ought to have fallen to the reunited right--and it didn't. It turned out that Muskoka, especially, voted like the summer home for affluent GTA "Martin Tories" that it is. But it remains a hallowed Tory target, so it's logical if Tony Clement's chosen here, even if far from his prior elected turf--besides, as an Anglophile like Tony would know, such parliamentary-seat musical-chairs shenanigans are pretty common in Westminster. Then again, if he doesn't watch out, it could wind up like Milhouse catching electoral poison ivy at Kamp Krusty...
11 05 05 drumlin hill
Lets not kid ourselves, Andy Mitchell is a very popular MP, and has been a strong voice for Northern/Rural Ontario in Ottawa. Tony Clement thinks that tax cuts for the rich are going to resonate here, but he forgets that cottage owners vote in Toronto, not where they vacation. Tony might have better luck in a GTA riding....oh, wait a second. Been there, failed.
10 05 05
Interesting race emerging here. Still too close to call. If Clement wins the Nomination - he might give the Libs a run for his money. But I still think that Andy has too much personal popularity to lose here. Clement might have wished by election night that he parachuted to a closer riding taking on the Carolyn Parish in Mississauga.
07 05 05 punditman
This is a fairly conservative riding. It is one of few Ontario ridings that re-elected a PC MPP (Norm Miller)in the 2003 Election. This riding was once the home riding of Ernie Eves, and now former Harris health minister Tony Clement plans on running here. Parachute candidate or not, he will be popular with the voters. However, the X-factor here is Andy Mitchell. Muskokans hate Liberals, but Andy Mitchell is the only exception. He is personally popular with constituents, and his cabinet position boosts his persona. If it was any other person running for the Liberals here, I'd call this a Conservative landslide. But, because of Andy Mitchell's popularity, I'd say this is too close to call at this time.
07 05 05 Full Name
While the constituents of Parry Sound - Muskoka may be ticked off with the Liberals - you have to think that Tony Clement changing ridings will leave an odd taste in voters mouth. Remember - he thought he had Colleen Beaumier beat for sure last election.
As for Andy Mitchell, he appears to be a hard working minister and I think that people recognize that. General Mackenzie could not beat him for the PC party a few elections ago and that is when Minister Mitchell was Secretary of State for Parks.
I think the margin will be closer but even if the Liberals are humilated nationally in this election, he should be returned to Ottawa.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is certainly a conservative riding by nature considering it always Conservative up until 1993 and has always gone conservative provincially. However, this riding almost never defeats the incumbent so it will likely stay liberal as long as Andy Mitchell is MP, but fall back to the Tories as soon as he decides to step down. Tony Clement should have stayed in his home riding, which he only finished five points behind and could probably pick up this time around with the polls being more favourable. If he gets in, he will certainly be a cabinet minister, but people don't tend to respond well to people who don't live in the riding especially when an urban candidate runs in a rural riding. However, Andy Mitchell may very well follow the fate of Bob Speller considering that the Conservatives not only defeated Bob Speller, but also won Lyle Vanclief's (Chretien's agriculture minister) riding.
04 05 05 Brandon
Parry Sound-Muskoka has been PC provincially forever it seems. Federally it was before 1993 when the PC/Alliance-Reform vote split allowing Liberal victories by default. This riding went Liberal by 3,000 votes last time. This time, Tony Clement (former leadership candidate and Health Minister in Ontario) is taking a plane from Brampton West and parachuting into this riding to run against Agriculture Minister, Andy Mitchell. Despite him being a 'parachute candidate' here, Tony did very well in Brampton West and only lost his multi-cultural suburban riding by less than 2,000 votes. The Clement name on the ballot swings a heck of a lot of votes.
Andy Mitchell with the Agriculture Minister title won't do much good. The Liberals are too urban-focused, while the Tories seem to be more popular with the farming portfolio. Just ask Bob Speller down in Haldimand-Norfolk.
04 05 05 Craig
Andy Mitchell may have won here last time by a decent margin, but that was with a very weak Conservative who was too moderate for this riding. This is a very socially conservative riding, especially outside of the cottage-dominated areas, and a strong social conservative (like Cheryl Gallant next door) will motivate the faithful voters and put this riding over the top. This is another riding in the rural regions that needs to take lessons from the US election last fall in choosing a nomination, especially considering they are against a cabinet minister. Predicted results: CPC 43%, LIB 35%, GRN 10%, NDP 10%, others 1%.
03 05 05 RWA
Rumour is that Tony Clement will be back for more, and is picking this riding. He'll have to get past the parachute tag to be the second Tory in a year to bump off the Ag Minister. Odds are he won't do it.
03 05 05 JC
Andy Mitchell will win, Tony Clement will lose thanks to him trying to parachute in this riding, Andy will keep his seat.
03 05 05 Kyle Simunovic
With Tony Clement running this could get very interesting. Provincially its held by a very respected MPP and is also a traditional conservative rural riding. I predict a tory pickup by about 6%.

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