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12:32 PM 17/01/2006

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11:48 PM 05/05/2005
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Pickering-Scarborough East

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Jeff Brownridge
Gary Dale
Tim Dobson
Pedro Gonsalves
Canadian Action
Chai Kalevar
Dan McTeague

Hon. Dan McTeague

2004 Result/Résultats:
Dan McTeague
Tim Dobson
Gary Dale
Matthew Pollesel

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Authorized by the official agent for Gary Dale

17 01 06 Andrew S
Just visited my parents who live in Pickering-Scarborough East (Scarborough side) and I have to confirm what other posters have said: If lawn signs voted, McTeague would win by about 40 000 votes. They don't, so he'll only win by five to ten thousand. Still, the seat named XXXXXX - Scarborough is just as safe for the Liberals as all the seats named Scaroborugh - XXXXXX.
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
No, no, no, no, no! The CPC has no chance. CPC numbers are good in Ontario, lousy in Toronto (and this riding sits on the egde). McTeague is liked, well organised and hardworking. The Grit/Tory rematch would need Dobson to overcome an almost 14,000 vote gap. Not happening!
12 01 06 Alice
I do not know if LB is Conservative shorthand for Long Blind, but if the writer actually thinks McTeague is losing to Dobson in the sign war he/she obviously has not been driving down the streets of this riding. In fact, there is such a glow of Liberal red from the plethora of McTeague signs that one actually feels pity for the Conservative no-name candidate. Even Pearson Airport is worried about irrant 747's coming down on Shepherd mistaking the red for approach beacons.
As for his knock on McTeague's lack of results on the gas file. The spotlight he placed on how the oil monopoly operates in Canada is only matched by the glare from his signs. Here's a prediction: McTeague victory in Pickering Scarborough East - a well earned one at that and just as big as last time, irrespective of the Ontario or nation-wide polling numbers.
10 01 06 LB Pickering
Apparently Paul Martin is coming to the area tomorrow to bolster support for the supposedly safe ridings in and around Scarborough. There is huge CPC momentum in Pickering, if the lawn signs I'm seeing are any indication. I think Dan McTeague will win regardless, but the margin of victory will be much closer than last time around. I base this on the dynamics of the national campaign, local observations on the sign war, and frustration among the locals I talk to (even die hard Liberals) about Dan tying himself to the gas price issue for several years, yet accomplishing nothing.
22 12 05 Andrew S
McTeague will win, and it won't be particularly close. I lived in Pickering-Scarborough East during the 2004 election, and McTeague actually ran a good campaign (not that I voted for him!), with Liberals canvassers coming by twice! and two phone calls offering rides to the polls (in a house where three people were members of the Ontario Liberal Party- coincidence?). It looks like it'll be more of the same this time around. Other parties are wise not to waste real effort or money on Scarborough ridings, they are eggs the Liberals can safely count before they hatch.
12 12 05 Full Name
McTeague will win again, by about the same margin he did last time. The majority of the constituents here share the same views that he does (conservative on social issues, lots of government spending). Until the Conservatives run somebody more popular and well known than Dobson, this riding will be McTeague's for quite a while.
02 12 05 J
Despite anger with the Liberals, this riding will in all likelihood go to McTeague by a convincing margin. The man is a hardworking MP who is right-wing and consistent on issues that his riding is right-wing on (ie. same sex marriage), yet is also left-wing on those issues that his riding is left-wing on (ie. economic policy). Despite him being a Liberal, his recent job as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs gave him a lot of profile, as he was the guy who told everyone how many Canadians were abroad when a disaster struck (and unfortunately there were many this year). His recent call to ban 50 cent in Canada as well as his previous media spotlight on advocating for Remembrance Day to be a national holiday where businesses are closed only adds to his profile.
Some issues in the riding:
*Given that this is the only 905/416 split in Ontario, there are concerns that the MP must fairly represent the interests of both Scarborough and Pickering. Despite the demographic similarities between Scarborough East and Pickering in this riding (middle class residents, high home ownership, well educated population), there are some different concerns particularly related to the issue of funding for Toronto (funding Toronto public transit and GO vs. funding Pickering's new transit system) and some other issues that pit Toronto vs. the 905 and smaller cities.
*Curbing development - protection of the Rouge River watershed- especially in terms of investment in the waterfront
27 11 05 A.S.
Geographically speaking, a unique 905/416 crossover riding--and the Scarberian element, together w/McTeague's broad-range populism, turned it into a wall of Grit-induced doom that won't be subsiding anytime soon. So he bashes 50 Cent? He'll probably be getting 50 Per Cent...
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Unlike some of the Durham ridings further to the East, this is more of a 416 riding as opposed to 905 riding so the liberals should hold this one even if they lose the ones further East. Besides Dan McTeague is pretty conservative on the social issues, although left leaning on economic issues, so most social conservatives will likely vote liberal. Only the Harris-type conservatives or libertarians will go conservative.

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