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12:32 PM 17/01/2006

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3:25 PM 08/05/2005
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Prince Edward-Hastings
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Tim Hickey
Daryl Kramp
Michael McMahon
Joseph Sahadat
Bob Vaughan

Daryl Kramp

2004 Result/Résultats:
Daryl Kramp
Bruce Knutson
Dan Douglas
Tom Lawson
Joseph Sahadat

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16 01 06 Trenton Guy
Interesting points raised below RE: Vaughan and Belleville support. Belleville all on its own will not decide who will win this riding. I remind you that the riding of PEH extends far north, and to the north Kramp is well respected and well known and that is his advantage. Secondly, Kramp won by around 2,000 votes last time despite losing Belleville (as previous postings confirm). So I'm not sure how people can claim a Liberal victory for Vaughan based on his Belleville background. If we look to the west in Northumberland-Quinte West, Trent Hills (which is very rural) went Conservative while the southern portion of the riding went more Liberal. That riding extends East-West along the 401 whearas Prince Edward Hastings is North-South. The Liberals won in Northumberland due in part to the numerous urban centres located in the southern portion of the riding. PEH on the other hand provides just Belleville and perhaps Picton as southern urban centres. These facts increases suspicions that once again the extensive rural regions of PEH will go for Kramp and therefore mean a Conservative win. In closing, being well known in Belleville doesn't mean a win.
13 01 06 the Scots-Canadian
Darryl Kramp slipped in as Lyle VanClief went out. Even as a Liberal, Van Clief had strong support in Prince Edward County because he was well-respected there and his local roots would be what it takes to get the County behind you. Prince Edward County has traditionally been a very conservative area, but the number of off-shore immigrants continues to grow and among the newcomers there is a lot of urban-style liberalism. That said, Vaughn is best-known in Belleville and his name may not have the punch in Picton and Bloomfield that it has in Belleville.
The NDP candidate is a teacher from Bancroft. That may make a difference here because northern Hastings is very conservative and he may not win much support in Belleville. I think that if the NDP support collapses as people worry about a Conservative majority government then this will bring Vaughn and Kramp in very close competition.
Definitely a riding to watch on 23 January!
12 01 06 Josh
With a long recent history as a Liberal riding, and an incumbent Conservative whose only contribution to Parliament was a flawed gun bill, this riding could go Red again. As far as campaign organization and candidate visibility is concerned, Dr. Bob Vaughan has had a tremendous amount of publicity. Also, the most important issue in the riding (and in Canada for that matter), happens to be right up Vaughan's alley: health care. His status as a medical practitioner in the area lends heavily to his credibility as a trustworthy advocate for the needs of patients. In fact, Vaughan has already made arrangements for two new doctors to come to the area, whether or not he wins the riding. In short, a strong and well-organized campaign as well as a history of medical service in the area may very well put Vaughan out ahead on election day.
09 01 06 Dale Sanger
Even though Belleville went largely to the Liberals last time. There are a few factors that will play out this time to ensure another Conservative win by Kramp.
1. Last election there was no incumbent that is why the results were within 2000. This time Kramp is Incumbent and is very popular (especially in the rural areas)
2. If you could gauge the election by the amount of signs on private property, Kramp is well ahead, again, especially in the Rural Area.
4. Even though Kramp did not win a poll in Belleville, he won the advance polls easily.
08 01 06 D C
My initial thought was that this riding was going to be while not a landslide but a fairly comfortable win for Mr. Kramp (about 5% plurality). However, it is now January 8th and the NDP campaign still seems to be non existent. I haven't seen a McMahon sign at all whereas there were several Douglas signs in my neighbourhood last time around (as opposed to neighbouring Northumberland-Quinte West where I am seeing Russ Christansen signs where I never thought I would). In 2004 the NDP improved from NDP 5% to 15% (although these changes were true for most of rural Southeastern Ontario). With a stronger Liberal candidate and a weaker local NDP campaign (and probably candidate - McMahon had lost to Douglas for the NDP nomination for 2004 and was acclaimed for 2006), this riding could swing Liberal.
03 01 06 John
For those who seem intent on arguing about the LAST campaign: a recent poll conducted 28-30 December demonstrated a full 10% lead for the incumbent.
We should remember the old adage about fighting the last wars when predicting the impending outcome. Kranp has just released a series of powerful radio ads involving people from across the Riding. Vaughan himself admitted in the weekend paper that Kramp has a strategic edge in the campaign.
29 12 05 full name
Kramp did NOT win any polls in Belleville last time. The Liberal candidate, Knutson, won all except 2 - and the 2 he lost went to Douglas, the NDP candidate. That being said, the battleground is the County and which ever candidate wins there, will win the seat.
26 12 05 A.S.
Yes, Kramp won at least 2 polls in Belleville...yet more unexpected was that the *NDP* won 2 polls in Belleville (a first?!?) and saved its overall deposit. And a measure of middle-Ontario unease with Stephen Harper (or at least the residual effect of favourite-son Lyle Vanclief, who might have withstood Kramp had he run again) was that in the old-time PC stronghold of Prince Edward, the result was a more-or-less draw. Daryl Kramp owes his victory (and indeed, his Madoc-boy candidacy) entirely to the North Hastings redneck-belt polls that redistribution dropped off the turnip truck; otherwise, as M. Lunn says in his first post, if old boundaries held, PEH and Northumberland would have echoed each other as Liberal squeakers. (Though one Kramp advantage relative to his party stigma: he's from the PC rather than the CCRAP camp, and ran as such even in 2000's Joe Clark low point.) With the margin being 5 points rather than a precarious 1 or 2, Kramp's looking like one of the less vulnerable Ontario Tories; and as in Durham, it's hard to tell whether offering a pensioner (however strong) is good Grit takeback strategy...
24 12 05 Andy
Kramp did actually win at least 2 polls in Belleville. It's true that he will have a challenge going up against Dr. Vaughn. But as Political Behaviour Professor Jon Pammett at Carleton University once said, "Incumbents get remembered", and certainly it doesn't hurt that he's running against the government, not to protect it. He's already got his name out there and is well known... so that's going for him.
21 12 05 voter
Arguing Kramp is a good candidate because his private member's bill got second reading doesn't really make sense since: "items of Private Members' Business are called according to their Order of Precedence as determined by drawing lots. Draws are usually conducted by the Deputy Speaker and organized by the Private Members' Business Office acting on behalf of the Clerk of the House.
At the beginning of a Parliament, and sometimes during the course of a Parliament, the names of all Members are drawn to establish a List for the Consideration of Private Members' Business. On the twentieth sitting day following that draw, the first thirty Members on the List, who have introduced a bill or given notice of a motion on the Notice Paper, constitute the Order of Precedence"
Therefore it was just random that his bill got called for debate and doesn't make him a good MP.
21 12 05 George H
The last writer is wrong. Kramp did just 'squeak in' when you compare PE-H to the other ridings in Eastern Ontario. And Kramp did not lose just a few polls in Belleville...he lost them all!
If voter turn-out in Belleville and the County came up, Bob Vaughan would have a real chance. But Kramp's strength in North and Centre Hastings (where it seems that people actually do turn out and vote) will carry him through again.
Hate to say it, but a Conservative win here.
20 12 05 Andy
I disagree with Ernie because even though Belleville might have a great deal of votes, I remind you that Kramp won by at least 2,000 votes while losing several poles in Belleville. So a strong candidate coming out of Belleville doesn't mean anything. Daryl Kramp did not squeak in. Check the facts: He was a municipal councillor and ran several times before being elected. He has experience. What about the private members bill he introduced? Further, he's in the press quite a bit (check the Tweed News and the Community Press and they keep back copies if you wish to look and see).
14 12 05 shane
It is going to be a tough race this election in Prince Edward-Hastings.
Dr. Vaughn is a well known and well liked candidate. The majority of the votes still come from Belleville and Dr. Vaughn is expected to have a strong showing there. Daryl Kramp squeaked in and has not done alot since being elected. The best indicator is how many times he has been in the local press. Some, but not alot.
29 11 05 MK
I just read that the Liberals are putting up Robert Vaughn. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I think he's a well-known doctor in Belleville and the owner of the Bulls (Jr. A hockey club in town).
I am marking this one for the CP because I believe the consensus on Kramp is that he is effective, engaged, and competent (I believe his private member's bill got to second reading). The New Democrats have a good candidate but unfortunately this is not a NDP riding.
If the rural elements of this riding can be rallied together by Kramp and if Harper stop the Liberals' strategy to call upon NDP supporters to vote for them in an effort to block a Conservative government then I believe Kramp should be able to pull off a win by a slightly bigger margin than last time (2,000-3,000 votes).
29 11 05 Ed Finkleman
The Liberals nominated former Belleville Bulls owner Bob "Doc" Vaughan to challenge incumbent Daryl Kramp. That probably was their crucial mistake.
Vaughan, while known in immediate hockey circles, is not well-known outside the city proper. The fact that he is very wealthy, and drives a "rich man's car," will not settle well with the locals, who fondly refer to the current MP as "Krampie."
Moreover, Vaughan, who is now old enough to collect his seniors pension, has not done anything "pre-writ" that would expand his name recognition.
My prediction is Kramp will increase his plurality to about 7000 votes.
28 11 05 David
Echoing Tweed Twizzler's comments, I really do think Kramp will be re-elected. I live near Tweed and he is in the paper every week and we hear nothing about the Liberal candidate. Kramp is well liked around these parts.
24 11 05 Tweed Twizzler
This belongs to Kramp. He won rather easily last time, and has built on his success. He has worked the riding hard and has a crack Hill staff in Ottawa to lean on.
15 05 05 Eastern Ontario Values
Kramp won this riding by a 2,000 vote margin last time, and has been working it hard ever since. He's a regular in the local papers, and you can see from his website that he's aggressive about getting his name out there. I've seen a couple positive editorials about him as well. The Liberals also have no candidate - the election seems only a couple days away, and it seems like they'll be hard pressed to put up any kind of decent campaign. I anticipate that Kramp will build on his margin, benefitting from a Conservative tide as well as his own increasing profile in the riding.
15 05 05 expatriot
Look for a larger plurality for the conservatives this go around. With one year under his belt and lack of a rural candidate for the Liberals, Kramp should enjoy an easy ride to victory. Rest assure, the "Red Intell" in Belleville will fight him all the way.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
If the 2000 boundaries or provincial boundaries were still used, I would say this would be a swing riding since Belleville is a medium sized community that isn't frightened by conservatism like large urban areas are, but not staunchly conservative either. However with 1/3 coming from the Northern parts of the riding, Madoc and Bancroft, the Conservatives will pile up huge majorities in those areas meaning even if the liberals were 10 points ahead in Belleville, which is unlikely, they will still lose this riding. Bancroft and Madoc are part of Central Ontario's bible belt and tend to vote more in line with Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke and Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock than the Belleville portion. Ironically had the 2000 boundaries for Hastings-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington and Prince Edward-Hastings been kept, we would have two swing ridings as opposed to two strong conservative ridings, so there seems to be a bit of gerrymandering going on here.

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