Update/Mise à jour:
12:30 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:15 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


St. Paul's
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Carolyn Bennett
Kevin Farmer
Peter Kent
Paul Summerville

Hon. Carolyn Bennett

2004 Result/Résultats:
Carolyn Bennett
Barry Cline
Norman Tobias
Peter Elgie

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

21 01 06 Michael
I think that everyone who has posted on this site has to look concretely at the numbers and step back for a second. This situation creates the PERFECT conditions for Paul Summerville to come up the middle and take this seat. That's why all the online forecasters have this seat as "too close to call". If it was a simple two-way race we'd all know it was liberal by now. The reality is that the Bennett campaign is in freefall, with votes bleeding out both sides, more to the left than the right. The previous poster who talks about entire apartment buildings with no signs voting liberal in the western half of the riding is making some innaccurate assumptions about voter's ability to hold their noses and vote for a party so clearly tainted by the sponsorship scandal and the fact they won't have a leader. Summerville is also kicking the **** out of the other two in the sign war in this more densely populated western half of the riding. Man i hope they pull this off, it will be be a serious coup for the NDP.
20 01 06 MD
It pains me to write this, but with polls being released today showing the Liberals rebounding slightly to open up a five point lead in Ontario, I'm changing my earlier call from TCTC to Liberal. As much as I would like to see Kent take it, I think his only hope now is that Summerville siphons enough Liberal votes to allow Kent to sneak up the middle and steal the riding that way. Summerville's an impressive candidate, as is Kent, but given the last-minute uptick in the polls for the Liberals and Bennett's previous margin of victory in 2004, it's going to take an awful lot of siphoning of the vote for her to lose. Call it Bennett by 2,000 votes.
19 01 06 Victor A.
Carolyn Bennett is cetrainly feeling the HEAT this time around but it is mostly due to the fact that there are two very strong opponents that she has to face. Despite the fact that she will certainly lose to a lot of votes to both Kent and Summerville, she will be elected with no difficulty although the margin of her victory will be much smaller.
19 01 06 DK
Is everyone in here on glue? Carolyn won by 22,000 votes (in case you're having trouble reading numbers, I'll spell it out: Twety-two thousand) and it is VERY unlikely that it will all shift towards the CONservatives or the NDP. In 2004, the NDP had an upper-class Jewish lawyer who sent his kids to Upper Canada College and that didn't court the Jewish vote at all. As well, Peter Elgie is NOT a great speaker at all, including when he ended one of his comments by saying (and I quote) "The Green Party has been existing on a hope of a fart financially", which didn't sit well. While it is true that Carolyn isn't the world's greatest public speaker, neither was the little guy from shawinigan (in either official language!) and he somehow managed to get elected and be Prime Minister for over 10 years. Carolyn's plurality will be diminished significantly, but having campaigned for her door to door, it hasn't been nearly as bad as I thought it would be, which leads me to believe that she will get re-elected.
18 01 06 MF
Steve, I don't doubt the Tories will get a larger proportion of the Jewish vote in St. Paul's this time. They'll probably gain with every group. But I don't think they'll do as well as they did in the 80s or in '95. The numbers aren't there.
As for the poster who noted that the wealthy areas voting overwhelmingly for Kent, I don't believe that to be the case. Think of the area south of St. Clair as sort of a hybrid of the Annex and Forest Hill - Wychwood Park and the Republic of Rathnelly for example are heavily populated by intelligentsia types. This makes this area more difficult for the Tories and more hospitable for the NDP than the area's socioeconomic status suggests, and my guess is Bennett will prevail in this area.
18 01 06 Steve G
MF: Yes, I know all about the Jewish migration northward along Bathurst - no need to fill me in on that, my father's side of the family is a testament to that. And yes, I know that the Jewish population in St. Paul's is mostly secular. That said, the community as a whole is not nearly as partisanly Liberal as in previous elections, and certainly not as closely tied with the Liberal Party as Italians or Portuguese in the western part of the riding. As in Thornhill, the St. Paul's Jews are trending Tory but unlike Thornhill, the absence of large Orthodox populations make St. Pauls less competitive. I'm not saying that MOST of them will vote for the Tories, but there will certainly be much larger numbers than in previous elections. In addition, younger Jews of all religious factions (Orthodox, Conservative, Reform) are far more conservative - both small-c and big-C - than their parents were. Why do you think Mostyn did so well in the eastern half of York-Centre last time, likely to repeat this time around? I still say that this seat is up in the air. Peter Kent will win most of the eastern half and Bennett will win the western half, so the get-out-the-vote effort is of utmost importance.
18 01 06 D. Bates
The Liberals are now in free-fall and Summerville's unbelievably strong campaign should narrowly tip this seat to Kent. Conservative internal poll numbers leaked to a journalist's blog put Kent just 2 points behind the incumbent. That's why Harper made the effort earlier today.
Of more consequence, the strong NDP showing this time (Summerville is pegged as being only 3 points behind Kent) will enable Summerville to win in an adjacent riding in the next election (almost certainly sometime in 2007). Once he wins a seat, he'll surely be a contender against Nystrom, Blaikie, Churley and company to succeed Layton as party leader in the coming years.
17 01 06 It's a Lego World
Carolyn Bennett is touring south western Ontario this week, campaigning for other Liberal candidates. There's no way in the world Bennett would be out on the road if this were a close race. Here campaign team wouldn't let it happen. Peter Kent will be back on Global Television in a couple of weeks.
17 01 06 LM
Saint Paul's will be much closer this time, equally because of Summerville's organization and Kent's celebrity. But I believe Bennett should will still win comfortably. People have been talking about the sign war, but in 2004, Forest Hill and other affluent areas were as visually "blue" as they are today. I often walked across the riding to my friend's house on the west side during the last election, and wondered if the riding would go tory because of all those signs (but of course it didn't come close to happening). You can't tell much from the sign war.
The liberals win because of their silent majority-- remember that there might be two voters in a giant FH mansion plastered with large Kent signs, but, as was the case last time, whole apartment complexes going for Bennett.
16 01 06 Quirinus Ambiguus
According to the Election Prediction Project, this Riding's now in the "too close to call" column. That's just about right. Who would have predicted that at the beginning of this race?
The incumbent, Carolyn Bennett's run a tepid and almost invisible campaign this time around. She's inarticulate in debates and has two strong contenders in both Paul Summerville for the NDP and Peter Kent for the Conservatives challenging her at every turn. With the well spoken and respected Peter Elgie of the Greens not running this time, there's likely going to be a shift of about 1000 of his 3000 Green votes away from the Greens with most of them likely flowing to the NDP with a few stragglers going to the Liberals to boost their chances of keeping the Conservatives from getting elected in St. Paul's and gaining a majority foothold in Parliament.
Bennett got 32,171 or 58% of the 55,095 votes cast last election. She would have to bleed about 12,000 (approx 37% ) or more of those votes and have them all go to the Conservatives, who got 11,226 votes last time, in order to lose. With Paul Summerville being a strong NDP candidate, he's likely to keep the 8,667 votes the NDP got last time and probably gain a couple of thousand more, some from the Greens and some from discontented Liberals and NDP'ers who voted for the Liberals last time around, but I fail to see him getting close to the 18-20,000 additional votes necessary to beat out the other two by sneaking up the middle in a three way horse race. Peter Kent has run a strong campaign in the Riding and will sweep the wealthy enclaves of North Toronto, Rosehill, Moore Park, Deer Park, Wychwood Park, Bracondale, Forest Hill, Cedarvale and Hillcrest/Casa Loma and make some gains in the middle class yuppie enclave north of St. Clair that was part of the old Humewood Estate, even though this part of the Riding traditionally has cast most of its votes towards the NDP and Liberals. With Summerville as candidate, votes in this politically-correct bourgeois-lefty neck of the woods will likely swing towards the NDP this time, if number and size of of lawn signs are any indication.
The wealthy northeast enclaves of St. Paul's have a strong voter turnout and have historically easily switched sides, en mass, towards either the Liberal or Conservative candidate that's likely to be swept into office by the political party favoured to win: that's why its been considered a "bellwether" Riding. There's no way the predominantly Anglo-Jewish members of Toronto's uppity equestrian class in these privileged and pampered neighbourhoods are going to vote for the "socialist" NDP , not even with a Jack Layton at the helm clothing the party in post-modernist, politically correct, middle of the road milquetoast attire and a Bay street economist running as an NDP candidate advocating a Jack Layton version of a Tony Blair "third way" in which the likes of NDP critics of Israel, such as Svend Robinson, would be "eviscerated" from the Party, if he had his way.
On the other hand, in the poorly serviced immigrant and visible-minority communities in the western part of the Riding, west of Bathurst and north of the CPR tracks, on the down-side of the social-economic divide, in the multi-ethnic and multi-coloured, working class barrios that include the Melita-Lambert Lodge subsidized housing project at the extreme southwest corner of the Riding, the tenement quality low-rental units at Vaughan Road and St. Clair, and the garage-sized homes straddling Dufferin Street and Oakwood, that are part of the old borough of York's "Shacktown", immigrant electors that have obtained Canadian citizenship, and are eligible to vote, are likely to vote mainly for the Liberals and NDP and will shun the Conservatives as they always have in the past. The voter turnout in St. Paul's immigrant ghettos has never been as proportionally high as that in the wealthier, non-immigrant, "professional" and "business" class neighbourhoods west and north of Bathurst and Vaughan Rd. Hence, this poverty-stricken western part of the Riding has failed to produce the kind of electoral results that would override the preferred candidate and political party of the voters residing on the well-heeled northern and far eastern slopes of this Riding's class and culturally-coloured divide.
It's a tale of two cities in St. Paul's, one of haves and have-nots. Given how this Riding's been designed, the "spring of hope" lies not with those in despair but firmly with those who have much "moolah" to spare.
This Riding had 79,761 registered voters for the 2004 election. Of those, 55,095 or 68% voted last time for the top four parties. A 5% increase in voter turnout this time around, or about 4,000 votes, could very well make an important difference in the results, depending on where those new votes go.
It's a toss up this time, that's for sure. The last two federal elections, Bennett managed to stay way ahead of the pack from start to finish, but she's lost her momentum this time around and is fading fast as she approaches the final week's turn to the finish line in this year's electoral horse race. It looks like it'll be a close one that's going to be decided at the wire. Maybe even produce a photo finish and recount.
It's risky placing a win or place bet on this race on either the Conservatives or Liberals. It's too close to call. Far less risky putting your money on a show ticket for the strong third place finisher that's likely to be the NDP's Paul Summerville.
In making predictions in a bourgeois democracy, it's prudent to keep in mind that, "pecunia regimen est rerum omnium," money rules all. And in St. Paul's the big money's backing the Conservative candidate this time.
With such a scenario, all bets are off for an easy Liberal win for Bennett.
As the this week's Bell Lap signals the final furlong to the finish,
it's a horse race alright, with the Conservative Blue-jerseyed jockey running head to head with the filly carrying the Liberal Red colours.

With the liberal Sunday Star painting Stephen Harper red and comparing him to a Bill Davis, the winds of change are certainly in the air. The mass-media oralcles are auguring a narrow Conservative Peter Kent win in St. Paul's, in spite of the odds favouring Bennett and the Liberals. An ominous sign boding bad news for Bennett.
16 01 06 Bear and Ape
With the Liberals holding at 40% in Toronto and the CPC at only 25%, coupled with Bennett having gotten almost 3 times as many votes as the CPC candidate, we can't honestly believe this will go blue. The 25% for the Torys is spread all over Toronto, it'd need to be more concentrated in this riding for Peter Kent to take it. Kent WILL make it much closer this time, maybe even swing it once or twice on election night, but when the smoke clears look for a Liberal win by a couple of thousand votes (a far cry from the 21,000 vote victory in 2004).
16 01 06
I'm going to call this one for the Conservatives, based simply on the fact that the riding is THE bell-weather riding in Canada. The Conservative party is obviously going to win at this point, so I won't be surprised if Bennet is soon going to be enjoying that enormous pension that retired M.P.s get.
15 01 06 MF
Steve G: Old money anglos and Jewish professionals have been trending away from the Liberals in the past few years? That's the opposite of the truth. St. Paul's was a bellweather riding until the 1990s - and Red Tories (like Barbara McDougall and Isabelle Bassett) were supported especially by socially liberal WASPs and even got some of the Forest Hill/Cedarvale Jewish vote, though the majority of the latter stayed Liberal. Yet with the rise of the Reform Party and the collapse of the PC's federally and the realization that Isabelle Bassett was a useless Red Tory in the hard-right Harris government, all these former Red Tories mostly went Liberal.
In '04 most of the WASPy Red Tory bastions of Rosedale, Deer Park and North Toronto (which are also run in Eglinton-Lawrence and Don Valley West) went massively Liberal, turned off by Harper's Reformatory Party. There was a slight swing to the Tories among orthodox Jews but the Jewish community as a whole stayed massively Liberal, as it always does. And St. Paul's doesn't really have the elements of the Jewish community that were responsive to the Tory swing. The orthodox presence isn't that big here. Why? The Jewish community's move north began in large numbers in the late 40's and it was into Forest Hill/Cedarvale. This group was almost entirely non-orthodox, as most of the Jewish institutions remained downtown until the mid-to-late 50's. By then, the Bathurst-Eglinton area had filled up, so their move was into North York.
I don't doubt Peter Kent, a cerebral and socially liberal Tory will make gains among both groups. He'll even get a few WASP/Jewish intelligentsia votes south of St. Clair who of course vote massively NDP and Liberal. But it won't be enough to win as the visceral hatred of anything remotely socially conservative (i.e. most of the Tory caucus) is too strong and Bennett will win the working class black, Portuguese and Italian votes W of Christie and in the "York" part.
15 01 06 Manny Bure
As much as I'd like to see that ineffectual and invisible Carolyn Bennett go down in Liberal red flames, the only way that St. Paul's will swing by over 20 000 votes in the space of nineteen months is if Paul Martin's Liberals are on the brink of a Kim Campbell styled implosion. Talk of a Harper majority may be fueling this type of speculation in strong Liberal ridings, but let's get serious.
15 01 06 Frustrated
Undeniably there is a shift underway. In my neighbourhood signs seem about evenly distributed. Summerville's website is by far superior to that of the other two but how much does that mean? Kent seems to have removed some of the more blatant references to his being paid by the Aspers while campaigning - probably caught a lot of flack over it. Still much of Bennett's support in the past was favourably disposed towards them; will they shift their allegiance accordingly? The NDP certainly has more grounds to say that Libs and Tories are equally corruptible. Personally, I'll refrain from voting for the Tories though I favour many of their policies. Harper/Day scare me and Kent's being already beholden puts me off. Parking with the Greens? - probably! I think it's really up in the air.
14 01 06 Mike F.
Any Conservative suggesting that they have a shot in this riding must be so drunk off the national numbers that they have become delusional.
This riding is solid liberal. For starters, the Toronto numbers still lean heavily liberal, and if the conservatives were to pick up any 416 seat (which they wont), this wouldn't be it. This is a riding that has given huge (virtually insurmountable) pluralities to Michael Bryant, Joe Mihevc and Michael Walker. The Forest Hill Jewish community is still solidly liberal and the Wychwood/Hillcrest community who vote Provincial Liberal and municpal NDP are exactly the kind of crowd that are likely to cast off any thought of voting NDP to prevent a Harper victory locally or nationally - which wont even be necessary considering the massive margin that Bennett won by last time.
Peter Kent is no Isabel Basset and Stephen Harper is no Bill Davis. Geeze come back to earth.
14 01 06 HubbaBubba
Carolyn Bennett seems to have lost it completely. She released a press release in RESPONSE to a Peter Kent press conference the other day. When a sitting Cabinet Minister feels the need to react to an opponents tactics, you know they are in trouble. Kent has a bunch of former Liberals in his camp now because they are sick of the Liberal government. David Asper (head of the National Post), Steve Posen (former Bennett advisor on Isreal), Dr. Sherry Cooper (former Liberal television pundit).
Carolyn's office has even started an anti-Kent blog, kentwatch.blogspot.com to try to stem the tide of her voters. Reeks of desperation.
14 01 06 Steve G
If anybody had told me that I would be naming this riding as Too Close To Call 10 days before the election, I would have laughed. After all, how could Carolyn Bennett - who won by 21,000 votes in 2004 - possibly be in trouble? After driving through the riding yesterday I now find myself saying the unimaginable: the Tories may win this. I was stunned by the number of Peter Kent signs on private property. Some ritzy streets in Forest Hill were absolutely painted Tory blue. This could not have been the case last year. I still say Bennett has the definite edge, but this wealthy, urban/suburban riding - with large numbers of old-money anglos and Jewish professionals, two groups who have been trending Tory in the past number of years - will be one to watch on Jan. 23. Too close to call.
13 01 06 Brad
Just an observation. Earlier this week I was in the southern part of St. Paul's running some errands, and I was shocked to see the sea of blue created by Peter Kent signs on PRIVATE property. As a regular follower, and participant, in Canadian elections I have, until recently, accepted the conventional wisdom that the Conservatives don't win in downtown Toronto. But, with polls tilting in their favour, one of the most well-known and respected star candidates in the country, a star NDP candidate to siphon left-of-centre Liberal votes, and (word has it) one of the strongest ground campaigns in Toronto, Kent and the CPC appear to stand a good chance here. Not that hard to believe. Provincially, Isabelle Bassett did it in 1995.
13 01 06 Bear and Ape
Who would have thought, a Toronto city riding too close to call and not because of the NDP? Though the CPC has gained ground in Ontario, Toronto still is largely a Liberal wasteland, but Peter Kent's popularity could be just enough to get him elected. This is and will be close, keep on watching....
13 01 06 Duck and Cover
I hate to pour cold water on "Hot Volunteer" but there is now way St.Paul's is going with the Tories. Bennett won by 21,000 votes last time and even if Peter Kent cuts that in half, he still loses. St. Paul voters are among the most educated in this country and they won't split their votes and let a Tory win the riding. No doubt Stephen Harper and his gang are going to form some kind of government but they aren't going to win a single seat in Toronto where Tory policies are just too right wing.
13 01 06 Initials
The Conservatives will almost definitely win this riding as Bennett is now in freefall (along with a lot of other Ontario Liberals). Don't write off the NDP completely, though. They've got a lot of support here, especially in the less-wealthy neighbourhoods. The NDP must really want this toughly-contested riding as I hear they have brought in some of their best organizers, including the well-liked Nicole Y.
13 01 06 MS London
Any perceived strength by Peter Kent will only take votes away from Carolyn Bennett. If the riding is truly too close to call, call me crazy, but I think it could go to any one of the three major candidates
13 01 06 real
This will be the tightest race in Ontario. In the end I will give this one to the Conservatives. This has been a bell-weather riding since '74 and you can't ignore that or the fact that the Conservatives have recently come ahead in the Polls in Ontario to a degree that no one expected. Add to that a respected and well-known candidate running for the Conservatives going against a Liberal that has not been particularly bad, but has not had any notable positive accomplishments in Parliament or for the riding....The end result will be a Conservative victory by a hair.
12 01 06 MF
Despite the declining support for the Liberals and higher support for the Tories, Bennett should easily prevail here. In '04, Bennett beat Tory Barry Cline by nearly 20,000 votes. Yes, Cline wasn't a very good candidate and Peter Kent is a "star" candidate but this highly-educated, urban riding (wealthy conservatives tend to prefer suburbs) is very socially liberal that despises any hint of hard-line conservatism (even if Harper has toned the rhetoric recently). David Miller beat the not-very-scary John Tory in the mayoral race here.
14 01 06 Adam Greenwood
I live close to St.Clair and Bathurst and everything Bathurst and West is literally covered in orange. There's NDP signs everywhere. Out near Rosedale, there aren't too many. Passing by the Liberal campaign office, they might as well board up the windows for all the traffic going on there, whereas across the street, it seems as if there are at least 20 people in the office every time.
Kent is great and has a lot of support in the wealthier areas - but are either Kent or Bennett even going to the poor areas - or are they just abandoning it to the NDP and both fighting over the wealthy areas.
Conservative voters are probably the most vocal supporters - you don't see a small Conservative sign - they're always the largest ones.
It's going to be a three way race - the Liberals are imploding and the NDP and Conservative candidates are strong enough to overcome the numbers that Bennett has put up in the past.
12 01 06 hot volunteer
The liberal prediction was made last may and not updated since. Last May I would of guessed a liberal win in St. Paul's but not any longer! David Asper has even defected from the liberals to support Peter Kent. Even people from Bennett's executive are defecting and offering their support to Kent. I never thought I'd see the day when any of that would happen. I say a conservative government and a blue st. Paul's are day's away! You should go to nealenews or bourque to read about the liberal defections from Bennett. Peter Kent just impressed me when I met him last month, he's so interesting and intellectual and will bring a perspective and experience that no other candidate will bring. Canada will be a better place with him representing it!
10 01 06 Christian Socialism
So could the Liberals lose here? Well the Tories have a star candidate (not that I'm usually one to read too much into that)... and, well, I can't help but think that the sort of rich socially liberal type that this riding seems to be full of is exactly the sort of voter that (in Ontario anyways) have been leaving the sinking Martin ship in droves recently... still... there's the small matter of a majority only a bit short of 40% here isn't there?
11 01 06
Nationally the Tories have a ten percent lead -- in '04 they were seven percent behind. 17% swing. Something in the 416 is going to go Tory and Peter Kent is the most recognized standard-bearer.
09 01 06 MD
I believe this one should be moved to the Too Close to Call column. After attending an all-candidates debate Sunday morning, I was left with the following impressions: Peter Kent was confident, firm, yet personal and he generally handled himself quite well. He deflected criticisms of Stephen Harper and Mike Harris with ease and handled an interruption from an audience member with poise and tact. Carolyn Bennett seemed very nervous and tentative in the early going, and the reception from the audience was generally lukewarm throughout. To her credit, her performance improved as the debate went on. Paul Summerville was witty and thoughtful and his comments garnered quite a bit of applause (probably the most of the three), but I just can't see him being a factor in this riding. The Kent campaign seems to be enthusiastic and I believe they are riding the rising tide of the Conservatives' national campaign. If the Tories are going to win a seat in 416, this is their best chance, and (while this is admittedly unscientific) the Kent signs are mushrooming, particularly in the St. Clair - Yonge - Eglinton - Spadina boundary. I won't predict a Kent victory outright, but I think Dr. Bennett has every reason to be very nervous.
07 01 06 MH
Conservatives will have to hope that (a) either the huge lead the Liberals currently have in Toronto (46% to 24% Conservative, according to the EKOS Research poll published in the Toronto Star on Jan. 7) does not apply to St Paul's, or (b) that Liberal support in Toronto will weaken in what remains of the campaign. Otherwise predictions of a close race in St Paul's or even a victory by Peter Kent will simply turn out to be echoes of similar predictions made in this forum in 2004. And yes, Paul Summerville is indeed an attractive candidate, but so was the NDP's Norman Tobias last time around.
The way the campaign has developed since mid-December suggests that my analysis of a month ago is probably sound: the Conservatives may well take a plurality of the seats but will fail to win ridings like St Paul's. Let's face it: a 21,900-vote difference is a huge mountain to climb.
07 01 06 Mike
At least make it too close to call. Apparently, the Conservatives have one quarter of the vote in Toronto, according to a new Ekos Poll. Granted, 25% is not a lot, but when you factor in all the ridings where the Conservatives are as good as dead (in Scarborough, downtown, for instance) the concentration of the Tory vote in ridings such as these may be enough to put them over the top. Plus the Conservatives have the momentum, so that 25% figure could easily rise.
In any case, PEter Kent is an extremely strong candidate, with an extremely strong campaign. ALthough I am not prepared to a predict his victory, I will tell you that it is surely possible.
06 01 06 M. Lunn
Peter Kent maybe a strong candidate and so is the NDP one Paul Summerville, but lets look at the numbers from last time around. The Liberals got almost three times as much support as the Tories did so you would need a Liberal meltdown before they take this. Historically this was a bellwether riding, but that was back when they had the former Progressive Conservatives who Torontonians could relate to. The new Conservatives maybe making gains elsewhere, but Toronto will stay solid Liberal, with a few NDP wins along the waterfront.
04 01 06 MTG
This riding will be much closer than most recent posts suggest. Peter Kent is a very strong Conservative candidate, who is likely running ahead of the party even considering the recent CPC surge nationally. The incumbent Liberal, Bennett, is not high profile and Kent's team is making a lot of progress door-to-door. The 2004 results are not very instructive, as the Conservative candidate in that election was extremely weak. A strong NDP candidate will eat into the Liberal vote and make this riding even closer. In my view, St. Paul's probably is still a "bellweather" riding: it will be very close on election night, but if the CPC trend continues to improve, Kent may well prevail by a hair.
04 01 06 Initials
This riding has tended to go Conservative when they form government, and there is also significant numbers of well-off people living in this riding who seem to be attracted to Peter Kent for his fiscally conservative, social moderate views.
09 12 05 MH
This is a correction of my recent posting, in which I gave my reasons for believing that St. Paul's no longer is a bellwether constituency. The last time St Paul's returned a member who did not belong to the governing party was not 1962, as I erroneously stated, but 1972, when Ron Atkey, the PC candidate, won it by around 1,100 votes. John Roberts won it back for the Liberals by about the same margin in 1974, Atkey took the seat in 1979 by 1200 votes), and Roberts took it from Atkey in 1980 by 2,300 votes. He lost it to Barbara McDougall by about 4,000 votes in 1984. Compare these margins of victory to Carolyn Bennett's almost 21,000-vote margin in 2004. The Conservatives may well improve their position outside the GTA sufficiently to become the largest party in the House, but their chances of winning St. Paul's do not look at all good.
07 12 05
Peter Kent's running for the CPC will definitely narrow the gap here. But Bennett won by such a huge margin last time that unless there is a total Liberal meltdown she is safe. Final result LIB 50% CPC 36% NDP 12% Other 2%
06 12 05 Derek L.
This is a riding where the "star" candidate for the Tories will find it difficult to win. In fact, there are other ridings in the GTA where the Tories have a way better chance. It all depends on momentum, but last time when the parties were reported to be "neck and neck" the day before the election, Dr. Bennett won by miles.
Peter Kent may have had exposure to Torontonians for years when he was on Global, but politics is much different than TV land and he is taking on a really strong MP. This is definately a Liberal hold.
04 12 05 MH
The Globe and Mail (Dec. 3) and the Toronto Star (Dec. 4) both identify this as a bellwether riding. It almost certainly no longer is, and its current status as bellwether may owe less to reality than to the inability of some political journalists and analysts to look below the surface.
Roland Michener owned this seat in the 1950s (when the boundaries were very different). Ian Wahn squeezed him out in 1962 by 127 votes (the last time St. Paul's was won by someone not belonging to the governing party), then held it comfortably in 1963, 1965, and 1968. But in the 1970s and 1980s the races in St. Paul's were close, being decided by fewer than four thousand votes in each of 1972, 1974, 1979, 1980, 1984 and 1988.
Starting in 1993, the Liberals (Barry Campbell and then Carolyn Bennett) have taken this riding by large majorities, and the margin of victory has grown to the point where this is now one of the safer Liberal seats in the country. (Quite possibly the changing boundaries of the constituency have played a part in this.) In 2004 Dr. Bennett triumphed by 20,000 votes over her Conservative challenger, and took almost 60% of the ballots cast.
Both the Conservativea and NDP have nominated star candidates this time , but it will take an anti-Liberal landslide of unprecedented or near-unprecedented proportions for either of them to dislodge Dr. Bennett. As I suggested some months ago, Peter Kent would have been well-advised to get the nomination for a seat in the 905 belt. Paul Summerville, a former student of mine and a man I very much like and respect, would have a far better shot at winning a seat on Vancouver Island, especially Victoria, than St. Paul's. Too bad, because people of his calibre are needed in Parliament.
Even if the Conservative Party manages to displace the Liberals as the largest party, I nevertheless expect Dr. Bennett to win fairly easily. She will be beaten only if the Tories sweep Toronto, something that looks very unlikely at this point.
18 10 05 M. Lunn
If having Peter Kent run for the Conservatives wasn't bad enough, now the NDP has nominated Paul Summerville who is a form TD Bank economist. This should make things interesting since the NDP is the last party you would expect a TD Bank economist to run for and will certainly help their image is being a fiscally responsible but progressive party as opposed to a tax and spend party. That being said, Carolyn Bennett will still be re-elected with a reduced plurality as local candidates can only go so far. This riding is too urban for the Conservatives and Stephen Harper's conservatism doesn't sell here so no matter how popular Peter Kent is, he won't win. Also this is not an NDP riding and there is no reason to believe even with a strong candidate they would win here. Too many voters who might be inclined to vote NDP will vote liberal to stop Stephen Harper. So while Carolyn Bennett may not have the popularity of the other candidates, she will still be re-elected simply because this is a liberal riding and and has always gone liberal/PC (not Reform/Alliance/Conservative).
31 08 05 Nick Boragina
I live next to this riding, and I've taken a walk though part of it. The houses scream tory, but at the same time from the people I've seen walking along the streets, I get the clear message that this is a socially liberal riding. I think a lot of people here will have trouble making up thier minds, but at the end of the day, the hidden agenda will make them vote Liberal
14 06 05 MH
Even before the recent decline in the Conservatives' fortunes this was a safe Liberal seat. Dr. Carolyn Bennett tends her constituency well and is personally popular. Many of her constituents -- myself included -- are fiscally somewhat on the conservative side, but they also tend to be socially liberal. Conservative hot-button issues have little appeal here. She won handily in 2000 and 2004, and there is no reason to believe Mr. Kent will be able to do what various Reform, Alliance, and PC candidates have failed to do. He would have been better advised to have a run at a seat in the 905 belt, where the Liberals are clearly more vulnerable than in Toronto.
26 05 05 ToJo
Just an update on a previous prediction... I think that Stronach's defection really does change the ballgame in the 416/905 area - which will now remain almost uniformly Liberal, save for maybe Toronto-Danforth and Whitby-Oshawa.
The Leger Poll released today has the Liberals up by a 17 point margin in Ontario, even larger than in the 2004 election... I know that many things will change before a Fall/Winter Election, but the gap just seems way too large for Kent to ever close, no matter how much of a star he is or how much corporate money they pump in.
23 05 05 Bear and Ape
We'd like to argue with the poster Geoff M. This may be a bellweather riding but there is no indication that the Liberals will loose an election (as of now). The Conservatives are unlikely to win a minority (forget a majority) since they have no chance in Quebec (save for one possible seat) and they are too socially conservative for any major urban area, including St. Paul's (especially with their "we're not rednecks" poster-girl bolting to the Liberals). So by the bellweather argument, this would still be a Liberal win. We think A.S. has it right that as of now a star Tory in Toronto is as good as a star Liberal in Calgary. Right on bro!
15 05 05 Hubba Bubba
First off, let me be frank I am a Tory. But I am a Tory who knows when he cant win. Peter Kent will have a tough road ahead.
I live in the riding, and I heard today that his campaign team is set and he has brought in a few big guns. Aaron Bradley is working on the campaign and I know from personally working with him on other campaigns that he will really bolster Peter chances. There are not alot of Toronto Tory 'big guns', but Aaron is one of the best.
I also heard Bernie Morton is the campaign director or something, and Bernie is another big name in the party. Obviously Peter has a good eye for talent, or he has some other good people behind the scenes that were able to convince good team members to come on board.
With a good GOTV plan they might just give Bennett a real strong run for her money.
12 05 05 A.S.
Peter Kent could be the one to do it, yes. On the other hand, we may have come to the point where a star Tory candidate in Toronto is akin to a star Liberal candidate in Calgary; i.e. nice try, somebody had to do it, but it's still an exercise in futility. Also keep in mind that in our mass-media-jaded times, being a news guy on Global doesn't carry the automatic bulletproof gravitas it once might have--I'm sure there's more "Peter Who?" or "Peter Who Cares?" out there than many would like to admit. Hate to stick up for the public over private media, but *Mansbridge* is the news guy Peter who's more likely to open people's eyes. Still, it's a big climb up from Barry Cline (famously skewered by Robert Fulford in '04 as an absolute blank of a candidate).
12 05 05 Geoff M.
Peter Kent has good odds. He's not Theo Caldwell and he's not Barry Cline. This is NOT as some have stated a "Liberal stronghold". It is a bellweather riding. While this means that we have been red for the past several years that is because the libs have been in power all those years. When Mulroney was in we had Barbara McDougall, a Tory, and during all other Tory regimes we have elected a Tory. We have only had an opposition MP once--for a couple of years in the seventies. Does anybody really think that Paul Martin is going to win? If you do, fine. But if you expect a Conservative victory nationally, don't expect Bennett to survive here--it hasn't happened since 1972. Consistency is key in this prediction.
08 05 05 Mathieu Gaudreault
Carolyn Bennett can relax and help other liberal incumbents. She is going to win this time again. Look at the result of the last election, the liberal were in minority and she just won with a large margin of 30% of the vote. The conservative news guy, let's say he will just raise the conservative score by 3 or 4%. This is Toronto, it is Liberal left wing city and it will stay like that. Actually the poll suggest a less minority to the Liberal.
08 05 05 Aric H
Well as many people now know, news anchor Peter Kent will be running in this riding for the Conservatives, but I don't think he will win it. This riding has gone Liberal under Carolyn Bennett by wide margins and a recent interview by a reporter for CityTV of people in this riding showed that many folks don't even know who Kent is. His running here is not going to bother Bennett much in my opinion.
06 05 05 Craig
This (like most Toronto ridings) is a Liberal stronghold, and nominating Peter Kent will not make any difference. Most Toronto folks don't like Conservatives anymore, and it does not matter what the name of the candidate is. In addition, AdScam is not really affecting the Toronto area polling numbers at all compared to everywhere else. Carolyn Bennett will still win a large majority. Predicted results: LIB 55%, CPC 24%, NDP 15%, GRN 5%.
06 05 05 paul
This race will for sure be a lot closer. Yet, people are underestimating Peter Kent's impact. He will most likely be the biggest star candidate in any party and should be able to win this riding if he runs just a good campaign. It isn't as though he is facing an uphill battle.
06 05 05 Full Name
This riding will probably go Liberal, but it's clear that introducing Mr. Kent here had a dual purpose: It's meant to soften the party's image, and boost the conservatives in the GTA. Whether Mr. Kent wins or loses, the Conservative party will benefit from his candidacy.
04 05 05 Nick Boragina
If the tories had won all but 16 ridings in the province, this riding would be in it, it's their 16th worst riding. The others on that list of 16 are mostly ridings from Toronto, York South, Toronto Danforth, even places like Nickel Belt.
While it's true that at a time, the PCP was able to hold this riding, the CPC will have great trouble doing so. The party is viewed as much more pro-rural and anti-urban then the old PCP was. There is one key difference this time though, and that's Gomery.
This riding also has another key difference, a famous reporter, Peter Kelly, has decided to run here for the tories. This is just the kind of combo that they need to win a riding in Toronto. Gomery, up in the polls, and a friendly "moderate" candidate. While I would lean Liberal if I had to pick between the two (the tories would need three times the vote here to carry this riding) I say it will be a fun race to watch, and could yet surprise.
03 05 05 Cory Martin
Well the Alliance-Conservatives have brought in Mr.Kent. Can we say easy win for Bennett?
03 05 05 Hubba Bubba
Finally a close Liberal/Conservative race in Downtown Toronto, its been a long time.
I saw Mr Kent speak yesterday. He is comfortable, articulate and intelligent. He will give Bennett a run for her money, and if the central Tory campaign dosent drop the ball like last time we should see a new Conservative MP from St. Pauls.
03 05 05 ToJo
Even though Peter Kent is running - 20,000 votes is alot to make up in one yr. Especially since the last three polls I've read have the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 7 points in Ontario. I think there will be a sizeable shift towards the CPC here - but nowhere near enough to take it.
02 05 05 Shane
Popular incumbent Carolyn Bennett will likely face a run for her money this time from broadcaster Peter Kent, who is now running for the Tories. But will he be enough to swing this Liberal stronghold? I'm not so sure.
02 05 05 JC
We all know how excited the Tories are having Peter Kent run in this riding but Carolyn Bennett won by a lot in the last Election, she has very good roots in the community and more people will vote for her even though Peter Kent will put up a good fight but I can't see him turning 20% of the riding over to him.
02 05 05 punditman
Peter Kent is now running in this riding for the Conservatives. That will make this a close race and an interesting one at that. In the end, I'd say Kent's got it, but only by the slimmest of margins.
02 05 05 Full Name
the CPC's star candidate Peter Kent is a well known reporter throughout Canada and the world. It will be tight, but do to the high media coverage that is expected in this riding, and his name reconicion, Peter Kent will pull through and possibly even be the only CPC MP from Metro Toronto.
02 05 05 Kyle Simunovic
Carolyn Bennett will pull it off once again. I have family in this riding and they love her. They voted PC in every election until Carolyn ran for re-election and wont stop voting for her until she stops running. Peter Kent puts some good press on this race but I still think Carolyn will pull it off just about as well as she did last time.
St. Paul's goes to Bennett until she decides she no longer wants it.
02 05 05 MF
Even though the "high-profile" Peter Kent is planning to run here for the Tories, this riding will stay Liberal. Carolyn Bennett trounced Barry Cline last time around. It's true Cline was a bit of a mean-spirited candidate who turned some people off - but it's not as if any Tory had a shot in hell here.
Norman Tobias impressed a lot of people and seemed like quite a bit of a Trudeau Liberal, but an NDP victory would only occur if they had a solid chance of forming of the national government.
The ethnically diverse, largely working class areas west of Bathurst and SW of Cedarvale is a Tory-dead zone. There is strong NDP support in the areas south of St. Clair where a lot of the WASP/Jewish intelligentsia types live - like mixed working class and professional Hillcrest and affluent Casa Loma and Rathnelly. Even the ritzy areas of South Hill, Deer Park, Chaplin Estates, Forest Hill and Cedarvale - due to their hatred of so-cons - are overwhelmingly Liberal now (and even during the 1980s Cedarvale didn't go Tory). The riding is also about 20% Jewish, with relatively few orthodox - and despite the constant predictions that they're going to embrace conservatism they still have not made this massive shift, much to the chagrin of people like David Frum, as they tend to remain just about the most liberal ethno-cultural group in Canada when it comes to issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
Prediction: approx. 50% LIB, 25% CON, 20% NDP, 5% others
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Even if Peter Kent runs for the Conservatives in this riding, at best he will narrow the gap from 28 points to 10 points. This is red tory riding and will never elect a Reform type conservative or Bush wannabe leader. Peter Kent should have waited until Stephen Harper stepped aside since he might have had a better chance with a more moderate leader. Carolyn Bennett despite having a lower profile than Peter Kent will still be re-elected since she is with the right party and he is with the wrong party.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster