Update/Mise à jour:
3:08 AM 03/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:59 PM 10/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Sault Ste. Marie
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
First Peoples National
Guy Dumas
Tony Martin
Christian Provenzano
Mike Taffarel
Mark Viitala
Ken Walker

Tony Martin

2004 Result/Résultats:
Tony Martin
Carmen Provenzano
Cameron Ross
Julie Emmerson
Mike Taffarel

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

31 12 05 mjs
Provenzano did get out early and fast but has faltered. He was quoted in the media saying he knew nothing about child care. He then was cited in the Sault Star by a reporter for not returning a call. His team tried to cover up his inexperience by ducking some debates but now he is agreeing to participate. Martin is showing his 15 years' experience in the debates so far. There is now a Green Party parachuted candidate from Toronto who took on Olivia Chow and a First Nations Party candidate. It will be important to see how this factors into Martin's victory margin from 2004.
As Harper improves in the polls nationally, this will pull Walker up locally, all to Martin's advantage in a three-way race.
30 12 05
I predict the Liberal's will take this seat back...barely. Tony Martin's stance on SSM usually does not resonate well with the "blue collar" steel and mill workers. As well, as someone mentioned, Tony (and the NDP) seem to be taking a lot of credit for money and policies that they had nothing to do with.
28 12 05 SW
Traditionally a three party race, now it is a 2 party race Liberal/NDP. Tony Martin has been strong in the peripheral/rural parts of the riding and normally gets his votes in these areas, however Christian has shown some strong commitment and has gained strong support in these area putting him in favour.
28 12 05 VJ
It is apparent that the Liberal candidate, Christian Provenzano, got out of the electoral gates first and has been pounding the pavement the most. Word has it he started knocking on doors in early October and he didn't stop until Christmas. You can certainly see the results - his lawn signs outnumber the other candidates combined. People seem to be excited about his candidacy and his potential and at the same time, I am hearing people, for the first time, question Tony Martin. Tony's campaign has taken credit for a number of intiatives, and significant monies, that it doesn't appear Tony and the NDP are responsible for. If people start to question whether Tony is being straightforward and he tarnishes his 'nice guy' imagine, its my bet that he'll slide quick - and dramatically. The Conservative candidate almost seems like a non-factor. If even a chunk of his votes moves to Provenzano, the NDP will be losing a Northern Ontario seat.
23 12 05 fyi
This has been an interesting election so far. The Liberals seemed to be out of the gate a little more promptly this time, however, Christian Provenzano does not seem to be too up on the issues. This young candidate has had little if any political experience, save a stint on his university's student council. He has admitted to having little knowledge on some of the more major issues.
Mr. Walker does not seem to be a favoured candidate for the Conservatives in this election. Word on the street has it that amerson Ross, the Cons candidate in the last election would have been a better choice; however, Walker was able to overpower with support at the nomination meeting. He seems to draw the Christian right vote, centered on gay marriage and abortion issues.
Tony Martin is running his typical grassroots, on the ground campaign. He is available for comment and has the experience to offer considerable background knowledge on a variety of issues due to his lengthy political career. His opposition seem to be responding with prepared party statements that they appear to be having difficulty going beyond when asked. It would seem to this observer that experience and the fact that the Sault is usually a three way race due to the splitting of the vote by the Conservatives. It is possible that the Cons will not pull the vote based on Walkers far right ideology. Mr. Provenzano must establish his positions more clearly as a candidate not dependent on his deceased uncle's name value in the community.
The debates will be interesting to say the least. It would be likely that the Liberals will be in a clearly defensive mode having to defend themselves on issues of integrity and trust. Word has it that the Liberal campaign would rather debate as little as possible this time around.
I predict another NDP win resulting from a close Liberal-NDP race.
25 11 05 reid
Tony Martin can hold this seat. But it is WAY too close to call. This is traditionally a three party race and the conservatives have a very weak candidate. He is perceived as a christian-right radical and does not have the respect of the Business Establishment. Tony Martin has been very strong in the peripheral/rural parts of the riding, but he actually lost the city of Sault Ste. Marie in 2004. He will have to dig in and win a good chunk of the urban polls to actually pull this thing out. The Liberal default vote and so-called "strategic" voting (so-called because it is patently absurd to vote "strategically" in a three horse race like da soo) will play a huge role. It is by no means a safe seat or an easy ride for the incumbent. We will have to outwit the liberal candidate (who has NO profile as of yet).
17 09 05 Aric H
Former Liberal MP Carmen Provenzano died over the Summer so the rematch between him and the NDP's Tony Martin isn't going to happen now - it would have been a tighter race if they had run against each other again. For the moment until the Liberals find a new candidate, Tony Martin of the NDP has the edge.
02 08 05 A.S.
Re SSM in SSM: in fact, if there's ever been a Reform/Alliance/(non-Progressive)Conservative-style hot-button issue screaming on the radar in the Soo, it's been official bilingualism--and that was back in 1990! (Provincially, it nearly defeated Tony Martin despite the Rae landslide, and gave the Confederation of Regions its best result in Ontario.) Although the seat's rural-belt expansion gave the Harper Tories more of a breathing chance in 2004; but that's where something like gun control would have been the more pertinent hot-button issue. While Carmen Provenzano's death marks a dent in the Liberal's "Comuzzi conservative" prospects, Tony Martin probably remains the most vulnerable of Ontario's 2004 NDP uptake, if only because the Soo's otherwise been trending against the party lately (witness Martin's '03 provincial defeat).
22 06 05 Bear and Ape
Is SSM that big of a deal here? Doesn't it seem more likely that if SSM was a big hot button issue in Sault Ste Marie then a social conservative party like the Conservatives would have fared better here? Wouldn't those people have already voted Conservative in 2004? Why would people who are actually bothered by SSM have voted NDP in the first place knowing that they would be in favour of SSM? No way, we just don't buy that argument that Tony Martin will fall because of that.
17 05 05 Justin Tetreault
Tony Martin has lost alot of support in Sault Ste. Marie for his pro-same sex views. Carmen Provenzano, who has voted against same-sex twice will win the seat back.
10 05 05 MS123
With the liberals down in the province, and the NDP polling higher than they did last year, and with Tony Martin being the incumbent, I see this riding going for the New Democrats.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
After last election's surprise NDP win, I suspect the NDP can hold this riding this time around with liberal support falling. The only reason I am reluctant to call it is the NDP only won by 2% so if the liberals continue their re-bound, they could re-take it although it is unlikely.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster