Update/Mise à jour:
12:30 PM 21/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:57 PM 05/05/2005
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Scarborough-Rouge River
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Serge Abbat
Jerry Bance
Andrew Brett
Yaqoob Khan
Derek Lee
Alan Mercer

Derek Lee

2004 Result/Résultats:
Derek Lee
Raymond Cho
Tony Backhurst
Fauzia Khan
Kathryn Holloway

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Authorized by the Official Agent for Andrew Brett

19 01 06 JF
Despite Derek Lee's strong history in this riding, it appears as though Jerry Bance could win the very tight race this time around. He has many avid supporters within the vast Tamil and Punjabi communities in the riding, which could ultimately sway the vote.
26 12 05 MH
Scarborough-Rouge River was created in 1987. In 1988 Derek Lee beat the Tory candidate by 4,600 votes, and Lee has owned the constituency ever since. It doesn't much matter who the Conservatives and NDP run here. It would take a political earthquake to dislodge the Liberals here, an even an earthquake might no do the job.
20 12 05 David H.
Since Raymond Cho is a Liberal and I belive said he'd sit as a Liberal if he got elected, the riding basically gave 76% of the vote to the Liberals. That's Mount Royal level support, pre-Gomery. One can only imagine the support the Grits would receive if they actually nominated an impressive candidate. They could give Kevin Sorenson a run for his money for biggest majority in the country.
09 08 05 Craig
Overwhelming Liberal hold in one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada. Like most of the outer parts of the 416 area code (especially north of the 401), this is such a red fortress that the only thing that could turn this otherwise is for the Liberals to not nominate a candidate. With the Liberals up considerably in the GTA (as opposed to break-even in the rest of Ontario), I can see Derek Lee winning this with 2000-style numbers. Predicted results: LIB 77%, NDP 10%, CPC 10%, GRN 3%, others 1%.
04 06 05 A.S.
Derek Lee's 2004 "massive landslide" was dampered by a quixotic second-place independent run by councillor Raymond Cho (who ran here for the NDP in 1988, but has since shifted t/w the centre); that's the only reason for John McCallum in Markham having the highest Liberal share in Ontario that time around. Unless the NDP makes unexpected hay out of the crime-and-impoverishment-in-Malvern issue (or the Tories strictly out of the crime issue), expect no such damper now, even if Lee ranks as the spaciest Liberal in the GTA...
02 05 05 JC
Derek Lee won by a massive landslide last time, he's not going to lose here at all.
02 05 05 Brandon
The Liberals could run a dog here as their candidate and win. Scarborough-Rouge River is one of the safest ridings for them in the country. Very red riding indeed and will remain so, no matter who sweeps Ontario.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Scarborough is a middle class type area that will sometimes elect moderate Conservative parties and maybe more hardline ones if they stick to solely fiscal issues i.e. Mike Harris, but won't elect a hardline fiscal AND social conservative party. This is probably the strongest for the liberals of the Scarborough ridings considering Derek Lee got 80% in 2000. While it is unlikely he will win that type of support this time around, he should still have no problem being elected. The Conservatives and NDP will be lucky if they can crack the 20% mark.

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