Update/Mise à jour:
9:23 AM 13/01/2006

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1:44 PM 10/01/2006
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Simcoe North
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Sandy Agnew
Karen Graham
Jen Hill
Christian Heritage
Adrian Peter Kooger
Bruce Stanton

Hon. Paul DeVillers

2004 Result/Résultats:
Paul DeVillers
Peter Stock
Jen Hill
Mary Lou Kirby
Adrian Kooger
Ian Woods

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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12 01 06 Initial
Divilier was popular and was a Metis so he also picked up the Aboriginal votes that don't go NDP. Peter Stock was a social conservative wingnut and should have run for Christian Heritage party last time. That's why it went Liberal. This time the Liberals have an unknown and the Tories have a good moderate business person in Bruce Stanton. The NDP candidate is only 24 and the Green's are unheard of. Just going by the signs around, Stanton has it easily this time. (The liberal candidate has big ones on most corners but very few on private property... Stanton's are all over private property and most businesses).
10 01 06 Martin
A Liberal nobody made the news by comparing Jack Layton's wife Orivia Chow to a chow dog on his blog. Now the Conservative candidate in Simcoe North is comparing Liberals to Pigs on his web site. Although the comparison has been removed, it was not before someone on Karen Graham's campaign got a hold of it. A screen print of the offensive remark is posted the Liberal candidate's web site for all to see.
09 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
The CPC is going to gain at least 15 seats in Ontario. This would be in the first ten. Stanton is a better candidate than Stock and without the popular Devillers its pretty clear that this is a gain for the Tories.
05 01 06 A.S.
Paul Devillers could thank his lucky stars for Peter Stock--but now, no DeVillers, no Stock. Even so, Midland-Penetang is traditionally the best natural territory the Liberals have in Simcoe County; though if the Franco-Catholic populace in Quebec and Eastern Ontario is warming to the Tories, why not here in Penetang. Orillia, of course, is hometown to that great-grandaddy of all wryly-observational conservative bloggers, a certain S. Leacock. Unless Grits get back on the same old track, Simcoe North is looking, in its quiet way, like one of the likelier Tory pickups--maybe too quietly? Ah well, Mariposa is a quiet town by nature...
22 12 05 Rick
When Devillers decided to hang up his skates, I thought the Liberals would lose. Bruce Stanton had been campaigning for the Conservatives for close to year and the Liberals didn't even have a candidate yet. But, the campaign in Simcoe North is shaping up to be a vigorous fight. Karen Graham got the Liberal nod, and she has roots among Progressive Conservative, Green and NDP supporters. The Conservatives say its time for change, but that plays right into the hands of a credible woman candidate. The Conservatives must have chosen that slogan when Devillers was still running. Graham is cleverly running on the theme of "Leadership above politics". Voters are tired of 'politics a usual', but that seems to epitomize Bruce Stanton. He has been a partisan hack for decades. When he secured the Conservative nomnation, it was his third attempt at getting a nomination for higher office. He even sought a nomination in a neighbouring riding. For years, Stanton has been a mouth piece for his party and last election he co-chaired the campaign of Peter Stock, a fringy right wing Conservative candidate. A refreshing alternative, he definitely is not. If Graham does lose, it will only be because of a lack of time and Stanton's year-long head start. If she hasd been nominated a few months ago, Stanton would be looking pretty bad right now. It will be tight, but I think Graham can win this election.
14 12 05 mike
this is a riding the conservatives should be able to do better in than last time. without paul devillers liberals will have a hard time.the liberal candidate this time came out of nowhere and has no political experience.
12 12 05 Full Name
Chalk this one up as a Conservative gain for three reasons. First, if you take in to account that this is a traditional Tory stronghold in provincial elections. Secondly, the incumbent is retiring, and a relatively no name candidate is running in place of him. Finally, the margin of victory for the popular DeVillers in the last election was uncomfortably small and with DeVillers out of the running this will make it all the more easier for the Conservatives to take this riding.
07 12 05 Andrew
It is simplistic to suggest that the Conservatives will win this one just because the popular incumbent, Paul DeVillers, is not running. DeVillers is actively supporting the new candidate, Karen Graham, and she is drawing support from both sides of the political spectrum. What happens in this riding is what will happen at the national level. If the Conservatives win, they will form a government. If the Liberals win, they will stay in power. I have seen Karen Graham in action. She's an engaging, intelligent and successful person. I predict she will run a strong campaign and overtake the hum-drum Conservative candidate who's been on the hustings for close to a year.
23 11 05 Jim
With the resignation of incumbent MP Paul Devillers at the eleventh hour, the Liberals will have an uphill struggle in this traditionally conservative riding. If Mr Devillers did not like his own chances, it is hard to see a Liberal rookie defending this seat. The Conservatives have a strong candidate in Bruce Stanton, who has been working hard for 10 months now. The mud and sleaze hurled at 2004 CPC candidate, Peter Stock, will not stick to Stanton because he's mainstream. In contrast, none of the three declared candidates seeking the Liberal nomination have a high profile and with the election days away, the date of the nomination meeting has not yet even been set. Wow!
23 11 05 M. Lunn
With Paul Devilliers not running again the Conservatives having a better candidate, then last time around, I think their chances are quite good, but I am still reluctant to call this for the Conservatives. This maybe a Conservative stronghold provincially, but lets remember the Conservatives won Simcoe-Grey and Dufferin-Caledon but rather small margins and those are ridings are generally more conservative. This is definitely amongst the top 10 possible pick-ups for the Tories, but I still want to wait until the campaign is under way before calling it for them.
19 11 05 Alan K
It is unfortunate that Paul DeVillers has decided to retire from politics. He was one of those strong local representatives that the Liberal party has had the privilege to have, and he's held a riding that under normal circumstances would have gone Tory. Unless the Liberals can find a strong local candidate like Paul, I predict this one a Conservative pick-up.
09 11 05 Bear and Ape
The one and only real reason why this riding stayed in the Liberal column in 2004 was because of Paul DeVillers. He was popular enough to hold it in the face of a Conservative storm in rural Ontario and his riding is prime for falling to such a storm. Look at all the neighbouring ridings (both Federally and Provincially) this is blue Ontario (with the exception of the residual class of 93 MPs still kicking around). There is nothing now stopping a Conservative win...well nothing except the Conservatives themselves...
27 10 05 Christian Conservative
Here is the link for Paul DeVillers retirement:
22 10 05 Brandon
According to the Barrie Advance, Paul is packing it up and calling it a day. This riding is up for grabs!
16 09 05 Trevor
If the NDP vote isn't too high, DeVilliers will win. But lots of New Democrats think DeVilliers can hold the riding on his own, so there won't be much strategic voting. The NDP vote surged last election when nobody, including the candidate, felt they could win. This time DeVilliers faces a moderate Conservative (compared to the last candidate) so it will be harder to win the riding. It's ironic because these mostly left leaning NDP voters could end up giving Stephen Harper another caucus member, which is the last thing they want. On top of that, DeVillier's politics are more NDP than some of the real NDP. Its like voting against one of their own. This will be a close riding, and the outcome is in the hands of the NDP voters.
11 08 05 Mel
Like it or not, DeVillers will win this riding again. Since 1993, voters have had 3 opportunities to dump him. He should have got the boot in 2004. The combination of his strong support for same sex marriage and the corruption scandal should have buried him in this traditionally conservative riding. People see DeVillers as likeable, earnest and hardworking, which apparently makes up for his liberal (emphasis on the word liberal) politics. The only wild card this time is that DeVillers is up against a new Conservative opponent for the first time since 1997. Bruce Stanton is not as socially Conservative as the previous candidate, which plays in his favour. However, he is low key, and he will have a hard time distinguishing himself. So far, he is only regurgitating the party line. He also has poor grass roots connections. He comes from an establishment family that owns a resort, and he is perceived to have been born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Most of his community involvement has been geared to furthering the family business, and those networks typically vote conservative anyways. Worse for Stanton, the word around town is there are plenty of former summer staff with less than flattering stories about him.
19 05 05 James Bond
DeVillers has been very visible in the riding and will run exactly the same campaign as in 2004. Adscam is NOT resonating in Orillia/Midland/etc. and the CPC will not get much traction from it.
Gay marriage is the wildcard here. There's a receptive audience in the riding to the CPC message on this issue, but with Stock they risk being painted as extremists. If Stock can get the message out without frothing at the mouth, this is going to be a very tight race.
All that said, the current 15% bulge for the Grits in Ontario sends DeVillers back to Ottawa.
19 05 05
Paul DeVillers will win again. He won with a good margin last time when he was a backbencher on the outs with Martin. Now he's a Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister and is gaining influence. His Conservative opponent, Bruce Stanton, is unknown except for in the Orillia area, and even there his name recognition is good only among the Chamber of Commerce/Rotary Club crowd. DeVillers will beat Stanton by 5,000 votes or more.
13 05 05 JC
This is DeVillers' seat for as long as he wants it, he is a good man who's worked hard for this area and people know it. He is likely to become the minister for sport if he wins the election as was recently reported in the Globe. While DeVillers' is in support of SSM which conflicts with the rural views, he has said that he voted for it because he believed that at a certain time in the future SSM would be legal. In two elections he hasn't lost because of this mistake and it might be because of Peter Stock, but still Paul is a man whose well known and I predict he'll barely hold this seat.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
This definitely leans towards the Conservatives, but their are still pockets of liberal support up around Penetanguishene. To make matters worse, Peter Stock had extreme social views and although this area is a socially conservative riding, there are many people from the city who live here during the summer so this probably hurt the Conservatives. Had the election been held in the Fall, Winter, or Spring, they probably would have done better. My prediction is that Paul Devilliers will be re-elected if Peter Stock runs again, while defeated if he faces anyone else. His stance on same-sex marriage is not popular in this riding, but that doesn't mean people are religious right wing wackos here. There are socially moderate people that support giving gays and lesbians equal rights, but oppose calling it marriage.
06 05 05 Craig
This riding was decided last time on a mistake in strategy by the Conservatives. Peter Stock is the perfect candidate for this riding, he just let the Liberals dictate the agenda (portraying him as an extremist) and didn't take advantage (by storming the religious groups and campaigning privately on social issues). Like all Conservatives in Liberal-held ridings in rural Ontario, they just need to look back at last November's US election for motivation. By doing so, they can unseat DeVilliers. Predicted results: CPC 44%, LIB 38%, NDP 9%, GRN 6%, others 3%.
06 05 05 Brandon
The Conservative Party has had a huge upswing in voter support in rural Ontario, and that includes Simcoe North. Simcoe County probably won't have a single Liberal MP left standing after this election.

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