Update/Mise à jour:
12:22 PM 29/12/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:05 AM 06/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Progressive Canadian
Stephen Butcher
Sam Hammond
Diane Marleau
Gerry McIntaggart
Joey Methé
J. David Popescu
Kevin Serviss
Dave Starbuck

Hon. Diane Marleau

2004 Result/Résultats:
Diane Marleau
Gerry McIntaggart
Stephen L. Butcher
Luke Norton
Dave Starbuck

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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29 12 05 ocv
I just returned from a holiday visit, and while I didn't travel widely throughout the city, I noticed a few things in my central area (close to the hospitals). While a religious fundamentalist candidate running for the Conservatives, I was frankly surprised Kevin Serviss had as many signs up as he did. However, about 1 out of every three houses that had Conservative signs up in my neighbourhood in the last election are signless now, while Diane seems to have signs up in a few more places. The NDP candidate seems tos be doing well enough, but I was surprised to see Jack Layton signs everywhere alongside his own. Northern Ontario tends to vote for the candidate more than the party leader. The NDP candidate is also a former city councillor, so he should have enough name recognition on his own. The Green candidate in the last race also had signs of life in 2004, but I haven't seen a single sign this time. Interestingly, the Conservative candidate in 2004 is now running for the PC Party. All this leads to an interesting question. What impact will the Serviss have here. Northern Ontario is probably more religious than other parts of the province, but social conservatism isn't a big voting factor most of the time. Serviss will likely be going hard for the church vote, but his stance on social issues could alienate Progressive Conservatives. Will they follow Stephen Butcher to the PC Party? Vote NDP to try to get Diane out, or go to Diane as a way of showing displeasure with the Conservative choice? My bet is that Marleau will increase her vote total, but it'll be interesting to see the race for second. Either Serviss will consolidate the social conservative vote and win second place, or the NDP will move a little closer to Marleau and make this very interesting next time out.
24 12 05 A.S.
Funny how both the Sudbury and Nickel Belt '04 Tory candidates have revolted, esp. considering this is old CoR country. And yes, Marleau had, if not a scare, then at least the ghost of a scare in '04 (itself slightly juiced-up by the first-time annexation of rural territory; that is, the Town of Walden). But in the end, what ought to save this seat for the Liberals is that it's as "inner-city middle-class", *very* roughly speaking, as a Northern Ontario seat gets--sort of a Northern Ontario version of Ralph Goodale's Wascana. (And Diane Marleau's just the perfect rep for that scenario.) That the opposition did so well in '04 (and might again in '06) is but a tokenism. But true, if the Grits are facing '58 or '84 all over again, it might not be *as* likely to stay in the fold...
22 12 05 M. Lunn
The 2004 Conservative candidate Stephen Butcher is running under the Progressive Canadian Party banner this time around. He claims Harper wants to outlaw Abortion and mix religion and politics. It will be interesting to see if the Liberal Party picks up on this since if 2004 candidates are uncomfortable with Stephen Harper leading the party, this cannot be good for the Tories. Either way this is going to go Liberal no matter what.
30 11 05 ocv
Sudbury has voted Liberal in every election (with the exception of a 1967 by-election) and it will again. If the NDP couldn't take it in '84, they have no chance now. Last time voters were angry about the provincial health tax and the sponsorship scandal. This time the provincial government has regained popularity and the sponsorship scandal will be old news. The NDP will also have to explain why Sudburians will have to vote in the winter - never a pleasant time of year here. Diane will be safely returned.
08 05 05 Aric H
Interesting about Diane Marleau. She had a high-profile a number of years back when she was a cabinet minister for a short-time and then ever since she has been quietly out of the spotlight down here. This riding is out of reach for the Conservatives but I do hear that the NDP has a chance here if their numbers go up in Ontario as they placed a strong 2nd last time.
02 05 05 Craig
One of the great upset potential, the NDP were surprisingly strong here in the last election with 30% and the Conservatives should make gains on the right. Any additional gains the NDP makes will make the difference as Diane Marleau gets swept away in the anti-Liberal tide. Predicted results: NDP 35%, LIB 30%, CPC 29%, GRN 6%.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
Unlike the Northern Ontario ridings further South which are more Conservative or the more rural ones which have a large aboriginal population and many union workers, Sudbury is a pretty middle of the road riding so the liberals will hold this one. With both the NDP and Conservatives gaining ground, Diane Marleau maybe the only liberal left standing in Northern Ontario.

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