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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Progressive Canadian
Mark Abramowitz
Lloyd Helferty
Susan Kadis
Anthony Reale
Simon Strelchik

Susan Kadis

2004 Result/Résultats:
Susan Kadis
Josh Cooper
Rick Morelli
Lloyd Helferty
Benjamin Fitzerman
Simion Iron

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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12 01 06 S.W.
I visited the all candidates debate this evening at the Bathurst Clark library. After hearing all five candidates speak and sweat (it was literally 90 degrees in there), one can see that this is truly a Conservative-Liberal race. Abramowitz, the Progressive candidate, did an admirable job as a pseudo-Conservative. On the other hand, our NDP candidate Mr. Strelchek was all over the map and Jack Layton would not have been proud of his performance. As for the Green Party's Helferty, he spent the entire night reading his party's platform that was so cookie cutter that his answers could have applied to any riding in the province. While the night came down to Kadis and Reale, they traded jabs at one another in a very unparliamentary manner. If this were a boxing match it would be left up to the scorecards. When the dust settled, Reale gave a very impassioned concluding speech without any notes and from the heart. Kadis seemed rushed and flustered, speaking far too quickly for those to understand her. Maybe it was some hard hitting questions from the crowd or the presence of Mario Racco in the room, but in the end the edge has to be given to Reale.
01 01 06 Steve G
Look, the NDP is a fringe party in Thornhill, and I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Greens overtook them to claim third place in this riding. As A.S. pointed out, the NDP had its worst showing in Ontario in 2004, despite improving it's share of Ontario's popular vote from the previous election. I'm 90% sure that Susan Kadis will win here, but what's becoming clear is that Thornhill is not Liberal landslide territory like neighbouring ridings of Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, and certainly the Toronto ridings to the south. The Tories may be one more election cycle from making a breakthrough here, with its base support coming from the riding's Jewish community. Current prediction: Lib 49%, CPC 41%, NDP 6%, Green 3%
30 12 05 Initial
The NDP has almost doubled its vote in every one of the last 4 elections, since 1999. Expect a breakthrough.
30 12 05 Vaughan Resident
Susan doesn't have the support of her provincial counterpart, and as much as I don't like Mario Racco's politics, that is going to hurt her more than it will help. Why? For better or worse, the Racco's (Mario and Sandra) both exert a lot of power in Thornhill-Vaughan. When that equals half the riding, Susan is truly is in trouble.
28 12 05 A.S.
A conundrum about Reale: how's an Italian Tory vs a Jewish Liberal going to resonate in a seat with a recently Tory-galvanized Jewish Orthodox electorate? (Given that situation, perhaps David Rotenberg would have been a better washed-up Conservative-political-hack standard-bearer for Thornhill.) But it's weird how Liberal strength in Thornhill's gone from teeter to totter; that is, they used do to best in Vaughan, but by 2004 they were doing best in Markham. And some here have mentioned the NDP as any kind of factor--but, get real. At just under 7%, they did worse here than in any riding in Ontario. The seat's either more vulnerable than it looks, or less vulnerable than it looks--maybe because Kadis is no Elinor Caplan, maybe the recent real-or-implied ethnic-vote turbulence and a once-proud PC legacy in the Markham end of the riding--I wouldn't be that surprised if winds up, in a Harper minority, a patch of blue surrounded by red...
26 12 05 ATT
Regrettably, this should be a Kadis cakewalk. Reale lacks the credentials to withstand the Kadis/Liberal red machine--he doesn't live in the riding, and has been out of politics and the public eye for nearly 2 decades. Many residents have moved to the riding since he sat on Vaughan Council; they won't recognize his name or background. Reale's candidacy looks like a desperation move by the Conservatives, to ensure there's candidate running in every riding. Clearly he wasn't the first choice to carry the Tory torch after Dan Samson was forced to withdraw. It would be interesting to know who said no before Reale. If Anthony Reale carries Thornhill for the Conservatives, it's a Harper landslide.
18 12 05 JD
Kadis having way less signs than last year's election is an indication how things changed for her in the past year. Keeping in mind that her campaign team started putting up signs weeks ago, Reale started putting up signs this weekend and it appears right now they are about equal in signs. Kadis and the Liberals are losing some of last years support due to federal issues which is out of the control of Kadis since she is a backbencher but the majority is not supporting Kadis for her acts of cronyism locally and her lack of consideration for the Italian community of Thornhill. By the way Liberal MPP Mario Racco was recently interviewed on the Rogers local TV station in York Region. He made it very clear that the Provincial Liberals is not associated with the Federal Liberals and he said he will NOT be supporting nor endorsing Susan Kadis in this election. I really don't think Kadis will bring the Racco/Reale misunderstanding up as it goes with out saying that if she does, her run-ins with the law will be brought up also. I even heard that former Thornhill MP Elinor Caplan has told her people that she is disappointed in Kadis and is no longer offering any help with her campaign.
17 12 05 John Q. Public
the anthony reale campaign isn't in full swing yet...
i see alot less Susan Kadis signs than last year...
anyways, if Reale overtakes Kadis in signs, the Kadis campaign can just bring up Reale's assult on Mario G. Racco in the 1988 Vaughan Municipal Election...
or maybe this time he'll assault Kadis in a Grocery Store? Who Knows?
29 11 05 M. Lunn
Actually, Michael Ignatieff is running in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, but that being said local candidates only are an issue for a minority of voters. Most voters vote along party lines and the fact is Stephen Harper is too right wing for most parts of the GTA (with the exception of the very edge), so Susan Kadis will be re-elected regardless of how popular or unpopular she is.
29 11 05 JD
Despite the report from CTV it looks like Susan Kadis will be running here again. With the Conservative Party asking Dan Samson to step aside for Anthony Reale who was a long time politician in the 1970's and 80's in this area and served as the returning officer in the last two provincial elections Thornhill will definitely go Tory.
28 11 05 Blue Tory
Kadis will win again and return to the backbenches. In an election where the Liberals won 34-35% of the vote nationally, she won 59% of the vote. Hate to say it but these are the facts.
26 11 05 JD
According to CTV Susan Kadis has been asked to step aside for "Star Candidate" Michael Ignatieff. This now changes everything, Thornhill was an easy Tory victory with Kadis as the Liberal candidate but now that Ignatieff is stepping in, Thornhill will stay Liberal. There were months of rumours that Kadis will be ousted from the Liberal Party for cronyism, this now confirms it.
16 11 05 jeffrey
I just heard that the Conservatives cannot find a viable candidate to run against Susan Kadis so they are giving the nomination to Anthony Reale whose claim to fame was that he was charged for attacking Mario Racco a number of years ago. Hey that will probably get a few votes.
26 10 05 Aaron
This whole page is quite rediculous. Every election, people predict the Tories will take it, and every election the Liberals win by an extremely comfortable margin. First of all, Susan is doing a fine job, the problem is, as a backbencher there's not a whole lot one can do. She's been a great constituency MP though. And this idea that the Thornhill Italians and Jews won't vote Liberal this time around? Why on Earth not? Have things changed SO dramatically since '04? No, they'll vote Liberal just like they always do. Furthermore, this assertion that Susan is going to lose because of the Ward 5 Muncipial By-Election, Legal Eagle, get a grip. You lost, you were far from the best Candidate, get over it already. Oh and Danny, the day Bernie Green or Sandra Racco run for the Liberal Party federally is the day that the Tories will take Thornhill. They are quite possibly two of the worst Liberals in the riding, and I have no doubt whatsoever that Martin would veto their nomination.
So, the consensus, Liberals will take this riding, that parts a no brainer. Danny has no idea what he's talking about, and Legal Eagle needs to get a life.
26 10 05
MF: I did not say that Jews vote for candidates based on the candidate's religion. I don't know what part of my post led you to that conclusion. What I said was that the crop of young, Jewish Conservative candidates in the GTA in the last election is but one example of the increased Tory support among younger Jews as compared with their parents. Being a 20-something Jewish Canadian from a neighbouring riding, anecdotally I can say that of my peers and acquaintances we're split about 50/50 between Liberals and Conservatives, whereas most of our parents still vote Liberal (federally anyway; provincially, the Tories have always had strong support within the community). So whereas the Jewish vote used to tilt 80% for the Liberals, over the next decade you'll see it evening out between Libs and Tories, putting ridings such as Thornhill into play. I suspect the same will be true in Italian, Portuguese, and other communities as traditional familial voting patterns (i.e. I vote Liberal because my dad votes Liberal) are replaced by individual thought and reflection. Won't be nearly significant enough to cost the Liberals this time, though. Liberal hold, for sure.
25 10 05 M. Lunn
Regardless of how unpopular Susan Kadis is, a 20 point gap is way too much for the Conservatives to overcome considering their numbers are more or less the same as last election. They would need to be leading in Ontario before they would have a realistic shot at taking this. Besides, the Tories got 10% higher in Thornhill than Vaughan or Markham, which suggests to me her candidacy probably hurt her last time around. And even though the demograhics are a bit different than Vaughan or Markham, the major groups be they Italians in Vaughan, Jewish in Thornhill, or Chinese in Markham generally go liberal. The Conservatives are seen by many as an old angry rural white men's party, which doesn't sell in suburban ridings like this.
03 10 05 Mrs. H.
Thornhill will definitely go Tory. The support for Susan Kadis has declined dramatically. The incorrect information and the partisan comments that keeps being posted by a couple of Kadis's supporters are so far fetched. Dan Samson has stepped aside for a very qualified candidate, which will be public knowledge in the next month or so. It will be very interesting who this person is. Could it be a former Liberal? What about a celebrity? Maybe it is MF's Donald Duck who could even win as a Tory here. Only time will tell who it will be but Thornhill will be Tory land.
03 10 05 Carlo
I recently heard a rumour that Dan Samson has resigned to make room for a high profile candidate of Italian decent, a potential minister. This does not surprise me at all given the fact that many Italian's will not be voting Liberal this time in this riding. The Conservatives will win this riding, the only question is by how much are they going to win by.
01 01 06 Danny G
It is fair to say that most of the people that posted comments here including the Liberal supporters has come to a consensus that Suan Kadis is not MP material and has done a terrible job this past year. (EG: MF: Liberals can run Donald Duck here and still win, M. Lunn: regardless how well liked or disliked Susan Kadis is, Steve g: Susan Kadis is a terrible MP but won anyways last year.) I agree that if the Tories and the Liberals ran equal caliber candidates the Liberals would win. Susan Kadis is bringing down the liberal vote in this area for many reasons (just read some of the other comments) I have spoken with a few people that are card holding Liberals for the past 25 years in this area and even though they would like to see a Liberal majority Government and in fact are working on some liberal campaigns in other areas they will not be voting for Susan Kadis. With Dan Samson now gone if the the Tories can get a half decent candidate to run against Susan Kadis they should take this riding. If Susan Kadis steps aside (which she has been politely asked to within the Liberal party) for another candidate the Liberals should be re-elected. Someone like Vaughan Councillor Sandra Yeung-Racco or former Vaughan Councillor Bernie Green would be excellent Liberal Candidates here.
26 09 05 MF
To Thornhill Insider and Legal Eagle: It seems evident that you know nothing about the political sociology of Jews in Canada. You both claim that Jews are especially opposed to the issue of SSM. On what grounds do you make this claim? If it's on the basis of the claim that only orthodox Jews (a small minority among N. American Jews) are "real Jews", then I see your point. Again, I refer you to Reginald Bibby's polling re SSM by religious group (see my earlier posting for the link) - which shows Jews to be far more liberal on the issue. Legal Eagle, I can almost guarantee you that opposition to SSM among Italian-Canadian and Asian-Canadian voters than Jews. Ask any pollster or social scientist who knows this community - and they will tell you they are far more socially liberal than the general population. To the degree that there has been a rightward swing among Jews since 9/11 (and it wasn't as evident as some predicted) it has been on issues of foreign policy, not domestic social issues, as the right is increasingly perceived to be more pro-Israel. But even there, most Jews can't stomach the right-wing domestic policy and haven't realigned. And no evidence has shown that Jews are more pro-Iraq war than average.
Furthermore, Legal Eagle, this election won't be about Susan Kadis. Local issues in Thornhill play a pretty minimal role - certainly Josh Cooper's tireless campaigning helped, perhaps putting the Tory vote up 5% or so than it would have otherwise been. People aren't going to be voting for Susan Kadis, but for the generic Liberal candidate. The fact that the Liberal's name is Susan Kadis is incidental. The Liberals could run Donald Duck here and still win in a landslide.
Steve: The fact that three young-ish Jews ran for the Tories in the GTA doesn't really tell you much. 95% of Jewish voters don't care about the religion of the candidate. I see somewhat of a generational difference, but the biggest political divide in the Jewish community would be between the orthodox and non-orthodox.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
Regardless of how well-liked or disliked Susan Kadis is, people in urban and suburban ridings tend to vote largely for the party as opposed to individual candidate so Susan Kadis will easily win again even if the Conservatives narrow the gap with the liberals in Ontario. Support for Harper has fallen throw the floor in the GTA so even if he rebounds to where he was last election, that still puts them 20 points behind the liberals. I think John Tory will re-take this in the next provincial election since he is more moderate and the 905 belt is fiscally conservative, but socially liberal which is why Mike Harris did well in this area, but Stephen Harper did poorly and will do poorly again.
15 09 05 Steve
So it is official, Dan Samson has pulled out of the race in Thornhill and will not be running in the next election. I heard he moved to London, Ontario over the summer to be with his wife who is studying to be a cardiologist. It makes sense for Samson to step down it is hard to run for a Thornhill seat from London. It will be interesting to see who the Tories will nominate.
14 09 05 jeffrey
the so called legal eagle or should I say the guy who got 50 votes in the vaughan municipal by-election seems to be a little out of touch with the goings on in thornhill. Susan kadis's support continues to grow and dan samson dropped out of the race because he doesn't want to make a fool of himself. it doesn't a so called member of mensa to figure that out fifty vote guy.
13 09 05 The Legal Eagle
Just a couple years ago Thornhill had a very strong voice Federally with cabinet minister Elinor Caplan. Thornhill is now the battle of the backbenchers! Susan Kadis has demonstrated over the past year that she is just a silent backbencher in Ottawa although it is anticipated that Dan Samson will also be a backbencher if the Conservatives are victorious. The ethnic composition of Thornhill is Jewish, Italian and Asian. The Jewish vote will 59% Con. 39% Lib. 2% other. This was 50-50 split last election but the Con. gained here due to Susan Kadis's stance on same sex marrage and her involvement in the municipal bi-election, which was in the largest Jewish populated area of Thronhill. The Italian vote will now be 40% NDP 25% Lib. 25% Con. 10% other. Italians traditionally voted Lib. in this riding but this has now changed due to Susan Kadis's lack of consideration for the Italian community, they won't go Con. and the NDP is the only other choice. The Asian vote will 47% Con. 45% Lib. 5% NDP 3% other. This generally has not changed since the last election. When you crunch all the numbers, the Con. will undeservingly win this riding, not because they gained support but because the Lib. lost so much here.
13 09 05 paul westwood
don't kid yourself jeffrey. If this meeting you refer to is the fireside lounge meeting at the community center, then you are painting a very differnt picture. Even the biggest of liberal supporters were grumbling.
16 08 05 Bear and Ape
Kadis will be getting a Caplan-like landslide unless the Conservatives stop looking like knuckle-dragging bible-ponders are more like Belinda or Mike Harris type conservatives. The 905 will be a no-go zone for the Torys until they start looking more like the old PC party. A good pick up oppertunity for them in the distant future when they change their tune. Till then, very Liberal hold (along with most of the 905).
15 07 05 MF
So Dan Samson is the official nominee for Thornhill. You'd think this guy wouldn't want to display his Canadian Alliance background given that the party wants to break through in the GTA. Yet on his website he has a picture with Stockwell Day, former Alliance leader. Remember how Day's supposed popularity in the Jewish community (at least according to the National Post with Conrad Black at the helm) gave a very impressive result to the Alliance in this riding...they got 16% (not too far from Caplan's 65%!)
Tina Molinari was smart to sit this one out, given that she has a good chance of winning here provincially in 2007. If she were the federal candidate she'd at least do respectably. I think Kadis will be getting an Elinor Caplan-style landslide here.
Prediction: 64% LIB, 24% CON, 9% NDP, 3% GRN and others
13 06 05 Mrs. H.
Most of the comments here seem very partisan in nature with the exception of a few that base their predictions on facts. The Tories will gain their share of support from ADSCAM and Gomery no matter who the candidates are. Dan Samson is definitely not a "Star Candidate" he is in the same position as Josh Cooper was, someone that is somewhat known and respected in the community and really not much more. So the Tories will not gain anything on name recognition. Since Susan Kadis took office she has done nothing to gain any more support in addition to what she already had. So I would say that a Liberal increase of support at this point is impossible. Without going into details it is a matter of fact that Susan Kadis has done a lot of unethical things that offended a lot of people since taking office. Even if she doesn't lose a lot of support from any one thing, accumulated it will add up to a large decline. So it would be fair to say that the support for Susan Kadis has declined dramatically based on Liberal federal issues and the accumulated local issues. A couple people here made a point that the NDP may gain support from this opposed to the Tories. Although I would say the NDP does not stand a chance it does make you think. Hypothetically speaking lets say the NDP nominates a "Star Candidate" then they would be in a good position to be a serious contender, so at this point we really can't count them out yet. When you look at all the facts it is very logical to say that the Tories will easily win unless Susan Kadis somehow regains most of the support that she lost over the past year. I would be interested in hearing any LOGICAL different points of view. Saying Susan Kadis will be re-elected by a landslide with no reasons why or saying because Thornhill LOVES her are very ignorant comments and are nothing more than a personal endorsement and therefore should be removed from this website.
02 06 05 jeffrey
Hey Carlo do you think Susan Kadis cares if she has the support of Mario Racco. Racco's support could be the kiss of death for any politician. He has his own political problems in Thornhill and will have a tough time in the next provincial election against either Tina Molinari or Josh Cooper. I was at that meeting at the Thornhill Community centre and there was alot of Italians there supporting Susan Kadis, nice try Carlo.
01 06 05 Carlo
susan Kadis has offended the entire Italian community of Thornhill by holding a public meeting on Easter Sunday. At one of her twon hall meetings at the Thornhill Community Centre a riot pretty much broke out and the York Regional Police had to be called in to get everything under control. I live in the Thornhill-Markham area and Susan's actions will affect the Markham area more than it will the Vaughan area even though her interference in the by-election was in Vaughan. The NDP will make the largest improvment but still not enough to win. The majority of votes among the people that just cannot get themselves to vote fo Susan Kadis again will go NDP opposed to Conservative. Even Thornhill's Liberal MPP MArio Racco will not be supporting Susan Kadis this time around. Prediction: 43% CON. 30% NDP, 23% LIB, 4% OTHER
18 05 05 thornhillian
Alon clearly has NO idea what he's talking about. The NDP have absolutely NO chance of winning in Thornhill. If Thornhill doesn't go Liberal, it'll go Conservative, but that is really not a worry at all.
Thornhill Residents love Susan Kadis, and in all my canvassing for her, I haven't heard one person even mention the municipal election. Obviously it is a non-issue. While Susan absolutely will have more a challenge this time due to the fallout of ADSCAM and Gomery, she is most likely gonna win the riding. The NDP and any independants have absolutely no chance whatsoever, and the Conservative candidate isn't even a resident of Thornhill.
18 05 05 Rebecca
The Conservatives may have had half a chance with Rochelle Wilner as the candidate, but this new guy is a little bit too extreme for Thornhill. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he ran the campaign of a fellow who called homosexuals "deviants". Susan Kadis, welcome back to Parliament.
17 05 05 jeffrey
Dan Samson past president of the Thornhill Alliance Party a man who supported the nomination of Harper for leader of the Alliance. I feel like it's 2000 all over again. Susan Kadis by a landslide.
16 05 05 Steve G
Susan Kadis is a terrible MP and was a terrible candidate last year, but she won anyway with 54% of the vote compared with Josh Cooper's 36%. Granted, this was a much better result for the Tories than most of the other inner-905 ridings, but it's still too huge a gap to make up this time around. In response to MF's statements regarding the Jewish community's affiliation with the Liberal Party, you are correct that the trend toward the Tories has not yet occurred but bear in mind that the difference in ideology is often generational rather than religious. While Orthodox Jews clearly are more receptive to the Conservatives, so too are younger secular Jews. Jewish Canadians under 35 are FAR less Liberal than their parents were - witness the young Jewish candidates for the Tories in Thornhill, York-Centre, and Eglinton-Lawrence last year, for instance. The Liberal hegemony among Jewish voters will indeed crack, but it won't happen this time around. Liberal hold, with a 10-15 point margin of victory.
11 01 06 jeffrey
I will say it again Kadis by a landslide. Those e-mails complaining about the municipal election in Thornhill sound like there coming from a candidate who lost in the muncipal election and could only get a measly 70 votes.
15 05 05 MF
With Rochelle Wilner presumably the candidate, I think Susan Kadis will win by an even larger margin. Though I'm sure EP as usual will be flooded with Thornhill-as-Alliance/Conservative predictions and will once again be among the ridings with the most absurd predictions.
Wilner has no roots in the riding, while in contrast Josh Cooper did. The Tories seem to be under the foolish belief that running a few candidates who rail about the Liberals' alleged bias against Israel and alleged softness on terrorism they will win the Jewish vote. Yet most Canadian Jews don't primarily vote on the Israel issue. They have a strong history of supporting the Liberals. And they're overwhelmingly socially liberal, which Harper clearly is not. Tina Molinari could do respectably in Thornhil partly due to the fact that Harris and Eves were relatively silent on the social issues. Furthermore, this is 905-land, not Beaches-East York, and people here aren't into the "all politics is local" line. Most don't care about whether Kadis endorsed someone for municipal office. It may swing 50 votes or something, but nothing substantial.
Having to rely primarily on the mostly orthodox Jewish right-wing vote in the riding, Wilner is going nowhere.
Prediction: 56% LIB, 31% CON, 9% NDP, 4% others
14 05 05 Alon S
This riding looks like it will go to the Conservatives this time around if they can run a half decent candidate. The NDP may have an outside shot of taking it or if there is a strong independent candidate they might even take it. An indepenent won this riding in the mid 80's. The people in Thorhill are fed up with not only the Liberal party for obvious reasons but more importantly with the local Liberal MP Susan Kadis for using her position to pursue personal interests to many times in her very short stint as MP. Her interference in the Vaughan By-Election will lose thousands of votes for the Liberals not only in the Thornhill-Vaughan area but also in the Thornhill-Markham area as the word on the street is that the people in this area feels that Kadis is to much Vaughan oriented and does not address any issues from the Markham area as she and her staff was to busy campaigning in the Vaughan by-election.
13 05 05 pm_shef
It is clear that Susan will in this one. In fact, the last election against Josh Cooper was closer than this one will be.
Thornhill Insider has no idea what he's talking about in terms of the Municipal Race. Alan Shefman was the only candidate qualified to do the job, the fact that Susan endorsed him is a sign of his qualification. And regarding his assertion that residents are mad that she interfered? I don't know what street he's talking about, but from what I've seen, people are happy with the job Shefman is doing.
In terms of the Tories this time around, they've nominated the former President of the B'nai Brith her name is _______ Wilner (i forget her first name). She doesn't even live in Thornhill, they've nominated her as a 'star candidate' to try and steal the Jewish vote, but it won't help. Thornhill LOVES Susan Kadis and she'll be rewarded again for her hard work.
12 05 05 Former Liberal Supporter
Thornhill is pretty much a lock for the Conservatives if Susan Kadis runs again as the Liberal candidate. Although rumor has it that Susan Kadis will not be getting the Liberal nomination again. Kadis's illegal involvement in the Municipal by-election put the "final nail in the coffin" for her to ever get elected again in this area for any postion. Even with Kadis using the her Federal employees and the Federal Liberal Riding Association to get her "friend" Alan Shefman elected to City Council Shefmam only won the Municipal by-election with 28% of the vote. 72% of the people that voted which was split between a dozen candidates, voted against Shefman A.K.A. Susan Kadis. Kadis has burned way to many brides with Liberal suporters to ever get elected to any postion ever again in Thornhill. If Kadis some how does get the Liberal nomination again the Liberals will at best end up in a distant third behind the Conservatives and the N.D.P.
10 01 06 jeffrey
Susan Kadis will win again. The conservatives cannot get a qualified candidate from Thornhill to run against her. I hear her opponent will be some women from Toronto who works for that extremist group called canadian coalition for democracies. I would also suggest that the only people who are upset about the results of the municipal election in Thornhill are some of the candidates that ran and lost.
08 05 05 Aric H
Can the Conservatives make up 10,500 votes in this Liberal riding? I don't think so with their numbers in Ontario 10 points behind the Liberals. They would have to be more successful in Ontario to take a riding like this. I have relatives in this riding and I hear that Susan Kadis is well-enough known. As for the Jewish constituency in this riding referred to below, according to research polls, the largest opposition to same-sex marriage is actually among Christians and Muslims whereas the least opposition is among Jews. There are a number of Rabbis who marry same-sex couples in Canada now and there is a group called Rabbis for Same-Sex Marriage who supported gay marriage during the Supreme Court reference in October. I don't think this issue will be determinative in any event, but I mentioned this since the issue was raised below. Liberal hold.
07 05 05 MF
Thornhill Insider, if you really think that "Jewish voters" are MORE likely to be opposed to Susan Kadis' support for SSM than others, then you I'll have to say you know almost NOTHING about the political behavior of the Jewish community in Canada. When it comes to social liberalism, there is probably no ethnic group that is more liberal on social issues (such as abortion rights and same-sex marriage) than Jews are. In fact, a poll taken by Reginald Bibby, a highly respected sociologist of religion, found that support for SSM is MUCH HIGHER among Jews than among Canadians in general (see http://www.reginaldbibby.com/images/Religion_Same-sex_Debate_Dec1004.doc) Social conservatives are almost non-existent among non-orthodox Jews. Now if you're referring to orthodox Jews, then you have a point, but they're probably the most Tory-leaning group in the riding anyway.
If the Tory candidate here focuses on opposition to SSM, I guarantee you Kadis will easily win here.
07 05 05 Thornhill Insider
It's quite sufficient to say that Susan Kadis is now officially in over her head in Ottawa. A big fish in a small pond in Vaughan, Susan has made little to no impact in Ottawa and will be left to run solely on the Liberal platform in the upcoming election. Vaughan-Thornhill residents will likely still be stinging from Susan's "interference" in the municipal by-election where her and her Liberal staff helped elected her successor on Vaughan Council. Word on the street is that residents are not too pleased with her tactics in having her hand picked successor end up on Council.
With that said, the Tories will likely draw strength from various cores of the community. In many ways, Susan's stance on same sex marriage will not gel with the position of many Jewish voters, a constituency that she heavily relies upon.
The Tories are hungry and should have taken this riding in 2004. Susan's kept this seat warm for the Tories. There's only so long that Susan can read from a script before it catches up with her. It won't be pretty, but the Tories will be representing Thornhill federally for the first time in over a decade.
07 05 05 Steve
Well here we go again. Although I put my money on Kadis it is to early to call. It depends on how the campaigns go. It is around a 30 day campaign period and that is a very long time. Just remember there is no such thing as a safe seat ask David Peterson, Ernie Eves and the list goes on.
06 05 05 MF
I'm going to predict a Liberal win here. This is the most heavily Jewish riding in Canada and as a group Jews overwhelmingly vote Liberal. That being said, there has a been a shift to the right among orthodox Jews and most of Thornhill's congregations are orthodox. So the large modern orthodox element + 905-style affluence = a more right-wing Jewish constituency than Canadian Jews as a whole. Josh Cooper did fairly respectably but was still trounced by Susan Kadis (Frank Dimant noted in an editorial railing against Jewish voters for not "rewarding" the Tories than if Elinor Caplan had run again, she probably would have won one of the biggest pluaralities in the country). Perhaps if popular former MPP Tina Molinari ran for the Tories it could be close, if not, I'll put this one in the safe Liberal column.
05 05 05 Paul
This is going to be a very close race from what I can gather in the area. People are a lot more angry than they were in the last election because of the testimony coming from the Sponsorship Scandal Inquiry.
In the remaining days of the last election, the noticeable shift away from the conservatives probably had the greatest impact in 905 ridings like Thornhill. However, current polls are telling us that people are now shifting away from the liberals.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
A swing riding at the Provincial level, but a solid liberal riding federally. Even though this was one of the few ridings where the Conservatives actually exceeded the combined PC/Alliance vote, they still fell 20 points short. Susan Kadis who loves to attack the Conservatives in Question Period every other day will no doubt get plenty more chances to do so. The question is will she being doing it from the opposition benches or government benches.

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