Update/Mise à jour:
10:47 AM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:28 PM 08/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Russ Aegard
Ken Boshcoff
David Leskowski
Doug MacKay
John Rafferty

Ken Boshcoff

2004 Result/Résultats:
Ken Boshcoff
John Rafferty
David Leskowski
Russ Aegard
Doug Thompson
Johannes Scheibler

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

15 01 06 John Edgar
Chances are Ken will take the riding again, although Rafferty did a good job campaigning I don't believe he will be able to take the seat, Ken also has his experience as Mayor in Tbay, and he has been quite vocal in the Fort Frances/Rainy River area. He also has some "big names" in the Rainy River district behind him, Tanis Drysdale, Geoff Gillon to name a few. I think he will likely pull it off again.
07 01 06 Jojo
This race may be closer than most people might think.
Yes, Boshcoff has been mayor previously, and his name is quite popular in this area.
However, federal and municipal politics are vastly different. At the local level, he was able to provide solid results as mayor (I'll give him credit for that), but as a federal MP, he's just another back-bencher keeping that seat warm. Thunder Bay-Rainy River hasn't benefited much since he was elected in 2004.
Voter apathy towards politics in general, and the various Liberal scandals may erode some of his support.
01 01 06 G. Coombs
Were Boshcoff not running again, this would be more of a tossup. As it is, he should be able to win re-election handily again, while Rafferty for the NDP and Leskowski for the Conservatives battle for second. Everyone in Thunder Bay knows him from his term as mayor, when he was the glue that held that three-ring-circus of a city council together. His personal popularity and the enormous amount of work he does gives him the easy edge here.
22 12 05 A.S.
They hoped for a Northern Ontario breakthrough in '04; instead, the Tories got a humiliating kick in the teeth by landing third in every riding beyond Nipissing--even this one, even with the same candidate who turned this into a Liberal/Alliance marginal in '00. On the positive side, CPC didn't sink below 20% in any seat save (inevitably) Timmins-James Bay; and with Ken Boshcoff being an ex-PC, some creative positive-spinning might make that a 2/3 mandate for the right in TBRR--er, yeah. Fact is, what's bad for Tory morale is great for NDP morale in Northern Ontario; moreover, this is a seat which was NDP going into 1993, now rendered "friendlier" still by its extension into Howie Hampton's home turf. Just as in BC, a lot of that Reform/Alliance strength through 2000 was simple "parked" NDP populism. But keep in mind what *really* tripped up the opposition in TBRR; that is, ex-TB Mayor Boshcoff was a disarmingly strong standard-bearer in what had always been a mysteriously "weak" Liberal seat federally. Indeed, he equalled or outperformed his "stronger" neighbour Joe Comuzzi within TB proper--outside TB, the Grits were *third*. For such reasons of hometown personal popularity, the seat looks less vulnerable for the Liberals now than it did going into 2004--at least in the rawest terms...
22 12 05 M. Lunn
It is possible the NDP or Tories could take this, but considering not much has changed in Northern Ontario and that Ken Boshcoff won by 8 points, I think he will hold his riding. Roger Valley in neighbouring Kenora is more likely to go down in defeat then him. He even said he wouldn't campaign until the Holidays are over, so he is probably pretty confident of his chances.
29 11 05 JG
The NDP did well in the last election and Jack Layton has raised the profile of the party. John Rafferty secured the local nomination and has been raising his profile for the last 18 months. This area has strong NDP support historically. Ken Boshcoff failed to support the same sex marriage bill even though his party was supportive, while he has been busy in the area the Liberals don't seem to understand how difficult things are in Ontario's north.
31 05 05 Initials
I think Boshcoff will likely hold this seat, but the NDP has historically done well in NWO and if they have a high-profile candidate, they may have a chance, particularly given the NDP's rise in profile and in the polls nationally. Boshcoff has had little influence from the backbenches, and with the city in continuing economic decline and the Liberals continuing to ignore Northern Ontario, voters may opt for a change.
18 05 05 Young Voter
I believe this riding will not see any change or shake up if there is a coming election. Reading the post by GM truly tells you a story about a long history of Liberal backing from the constituents of Thunder Bay - Rainy River (formally Thunder Bay - Atikokan).
09 05 05 M. Lunn
I don't think this is a liberal lock. The NDP is quite strong in Northern Ontario and could take this. The Conservatives traditionally have done poorly here, but their positions on the gun registry and same-sex marriage should go well here. Although I would be very surprised if they won it. Interestingly enough, this was one of the best ridings for the Canadian Alliance in 2000 in Ontario and in fact the Tories actually did worse than the Alliance.
07 05 05 GM
The Liberals should easily win as Rafferty for the NDP was just a fluke last time. And for those who think the Conservatives stand a chance, the last time that they won in this riding was Robert Manion in 1930. The closest that they have come since then was when Boshcoff almost won for the Conservatives in 1984.

Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster